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Updated: 2023 Nov 13, 21:00 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2023 Dec 27 UT, the 82 km diameter asteroid (478) Tergeste will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Sextans for observers along a path grazing the East Cape on the North Island of New Zealand.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.0 mag to 12.95 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 10.4 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 411-050740 by 478 Tergeste on 2023 Dec 27
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
178 55 18 -36 51 11 15 33 57.3 60 17 -12 178 27 34 -36 56 35 179 22 58 -36 45 45 178 9 0 -37 0 11 179 41 21 -36 42 7 0.24
178 56 48 -37 0 59 15 33 59.4 60 17 -12 178 28 59 -37 6 24 179 24 30 -36 55 32 178 10 23 -37 10 0 179 42 56 -36 51 53 0.24
178 58 17 -37 10 47 15 34 1.5 60 17 -12 178 30 25 -37 16 13 179 26 3 -37 5 20 178 11 47 -37 19 50 179 44 31 -37 1 40 0.24
178 59 47 -37 20 37 15 34 3.6 60 17 -12 178 31 52 -37 26 3 179 27 37 -37 15 8 178 13 11 -37 29 40 179 46 7 -37 11 29 0.24
179 1 17 -37 30 27 15 34 5.7 60 17 -12 178 33 18 -37 35 54 179 29 10 -37 24 58 178 14 34 -37 39 32 179 47 43 -37 21 18 0.24
179 2 47 -37 40 19 15 34 7.8 59 17 -12 178 34 44 -37 45 46 179 30 43 -37 34 48 178 15 58 -37 49 25 179 49 18 -37 31 8 0.24
179 4 17 -37 50 11 15 34 9.9 59 17 -12 178 36 11 -37 55 40 179 32 17 -37 44 40 178 17 22 -37 59 18 179 50 54 -37 40 59 0.24
179 5 47 -38 0 4 15 34 12.0 59 16 -12 178 37 37 -38 5 34 179 33 51 -37 54 32 178 18 46 -38 9 13 179 52 31 -37 50 50 0.24
179 7 17 -38 9 58 15 34 14.0 59 16 -11 178 39 4 -38 15 29 179 35 25 -38 4 26 178 20 11 -38 19 8 179 54 7 -38 0 43 0.24
179 8 48 -38 19 53 15 34 16.1 59 16 -11 178 40 31 -38 25 24 179 36 59 -38 14 20 178 21 35 -38 29 5 179 55 44 -38 10 37 0.24
179 10 19 -38 29 49 15 34 18.2 59 16 -11 178 41 58 -38 35 21 179 38 34 -38 24 15 178 22 59 -38 39 2 179 57 21 -38 20 32 0.24
179 11 50 -38 39 47 15 34 20.3 58 16 -11 178 43 25 -38 45 19 179 40 9 -38 34 11 178 24 24 -38 49 1 179 58 58 -38 30 27 0.24
179 13 21 -38 49 45 15 34 22.4 58 16 -11 178 44 52 -38 55 18 179 41 44 -38 44 9 178 25 49 -38 59 0 -179 59 24 -38 40 24 0.24
179 14 52 -38 59 44 15 34 24.5 58 16 -11 178 46 20 -39 5 18 179 43 19 -38 54 7 178 27 14 -39 9 1 -179 57 46 -38 50 22 0.24
179 16 24 -39 9 44 15 34 26.6 58 15 -11 178 47 47 -39 15 19 179 44 54 -39 4 6 178 28 38 -39 19 2 -179 56 8 -39 0 20 0.24
179 17 56 -39 19 45 15 34 28.7 58 15 -10 178 49 15 -39 25 21 179 46 30 -39 14 6 178 30 4 -39 29 5 -179 54 30 -39 10 20 0.24
179 19 28 -39 29 47 15 34 30.8 58 15 -10 178 50 43 -39 35 24 179 48 6 -39 24 8 178 31 29 -39 39 9 -179 52 51 -39 20 21 0.24
179 21 0 -39 39 50 15 34 32.8 58 15 -10 178 52 11 -39 45 28 179 49 42 -39 34 10 178 32 54 -39 49 13 -179 51 13 -39 30 23 0.24
179 22 32 -39 49 55 15 34 34.9 57 15 -10 178 53 39 -39 55 34 179 51 19 -39 44 14 178 34 20 -39 59 19 -179 49 34 -39 40 25 0.24
179 24 5 -40 0 0 15 34 37.0 57 15 -10 178 55 8 -40 5 40 179 52 55 -39 54 18 178 35 45 -40 9 26 -179 47 54 -39 50 29 0.24
179 25 38 -40 10 7 15 34 39.1 57 15 -10 178 56 36 -40 15 47 179 54 32 -40 4 24 178 37 11 -40 19 34 -179 46 15 -40 0 34 0.24
179 27 11 -40 20 14 15 34 41.2 57 15 -10 178 58 5 -40 25 56 179 56 9 -40 14 30 178 38 37 -40 29 43 -179 44 35 -40 10 40 0.24
179 28 44 -40 30 23 15 34 43.3 57 14 -10 178 59 34 -40 36 5 179 57 47 -40 24 38 178 40 3 -40 39 53 -179 42 54 -40 20 47 0.24
179 30 17 -40 40 32 15 34 45.4 57 14 -9 179 1 3 -40 46 16 179 59 25 -40 34 47 178 41 29 -40 50 4 -179 41 14 -40 30 55 0.24
179 31 51 -40 50 43 15 34 47.5 56 14 -9 179 2 33 -40 56 28 -179 58 57 -40 44 57 178 42 56 -41 0 17 -179 39 33 -40 41 5 0.24
179 33 25 -41 0 55 15 34 49.5 56 14 -9 179 4 2 -41 6 41 -179 57 19 -40 55 8 178 44 22 -41 10 31 -179 37 52 -40 51 15 0.24
179 34 59 -41 11 9 15 34 51.6 56 14 -9 179 5 32 -41 16 55 -179 55 40 -41 5 20 178 45 49 -41 20 45 -179 36 10 -41 1 27 0.24
179 36 34 -41 21 23 15 34 53.7 56 14 -9 179 7 2 -41 27 10 -179 54 1 -41 15 33 178 47 16 -41 31 1 -179 34 28 -41 11 40 0.24
179 38 8 -41 31 38 15 34 55.8 56 14 -9 179 8 32 -41 37 27 -179 52 22 -41 25 48 178 48 43 -41 41 19 -179 32 46 -41 21 53 0.24
179 39 43 -41 41 55 15 34 57.9 56 14 -9 179 10 3 -41 47 45 -179 50 43 -41 36 4 178 50 10 -41 51 37 -179 31 4 -41 32 8 0.24
179 41 19 -41 52 13 15 35 0.0 55 13 -8 179 11 33 -41 58 3 -179 49 3 -41 46 21 178 51 38 -42 1 56 -179 29 21 -41 42 25 0.24
179 42 54 -42 2 32 15 35 2.1 55 13 -8 179 13 4 -42 8 24 -179 47 23 -41 56 39 178 53 6 -42 12 17 -179 27 37 -41 52 42 0.24
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