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Updated: 2023 AUG 06, 16:09 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2023 Sep 02 UT, the 82 km diameter asteroid (914) Palisana will occult a 9.9 mag star in the constellation Vulpecula for observers along a fw path across eastern Australia grazing the north-eastern coast of New South Wales from about Newcastle to Tweed Heads.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.32 mag to 12.03 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 19.360 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 1628-02807-1 by 914 Palisana on 2023 Sep 2
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
150 10 51 -45 0 0 11 46 44.1 22 350 -43 149 34 18 150 47 32 149 28 58 150 52 55 0.59
150 17 49 -44 0 0 11 46 32.8 23 350 -44 149 41 52 150 53 56 149 36 36 150 59 13 0.59
150 25 32 -43 0 0 11 46 21.0 24 350 -45 149 50 7 151 1 6 149 44 57 151 6 19 0.59
150 33 58 -42 0 0 11 46 8.8 25 350 -45 149 59 4 151 9 0 149 53 58 151 14 8 0.59
150 43 5 -41 0 0 11 45 56.1 26 350 -46 150 8 40 151 17 37 150 3 38 151 22 41 0.59
150 52 51 -40 0 0 11 45 43.0 27 349 -47 150 18 54 151 26 55 150 13 56 151 31 55 0.59
151 3 16 -39 0 0 11 45 29.3 28 349 -47 150 29 45 151 36 54 150 24 51 151 41 50 0.59
151 14 19 -38 0 0 11 45 15.3 29 349 -48 150 41 13 151 47 32 150 36 22 151 52 24 0.60
151 25 58 -37 0 0 11 45 0.8 30 349 -49 150 53 15 151 58 47 150 48 28 152 3 36 0.60
151 38 12 -36 0 0 11 44 45.8 31 349 -49 151 5 52 152 10 40 151 1 9 152 15 26 0.60
151 51 2 -35 0 0 11 44 30.4 32 348 -50 151 19 3 152 23 9 151 14 22 152 27 51 0.60
152 4 26 -34 0 0 11 44 14.6 33 348 -51 151 32 47 152 36 13 151 28 9 152 40 53 0.60
152 18 24 -33 0 0 11 43 58.4 34 348 -51 151 47 3 152 49 52 151 42 28 152 54 29 0.60
152 32 55 -32 0 0 11 43 41.7 35 347 -52 152 1 51 153 4 5 151 57 19 153 8 39 0.60
152 47 58 -31 0 0 11 43 24.6 35 347 -53 152 17 11 153 18 52 152 12 41 153 23 24 0.60
153 3 34 -30 0 0 11 43 7.0 36 347 -53 152 33 3 153 34 12 152 28 35 153 38 42 0.59
153 19 42 -29 0 0 11 42 49.1 37 346 -54 152 49 25 153 50 5 152 44 59 153 54 33 0.59
153 36 21 -28 0 0 11 42 30.7 38 346 -55 153 6 18 154 6 31 153 1 55 154 10 57 0.59
153 53 32 -27 0 0 11 42 12.0 39 345 -55 153 23 42 154 23 30 153 19 20 154 27 53 0.59
154 11 15 -26 0 0 11 41 52.8 40 345 -56 153 41 36 154 41 0 153 37 16 154 45 22 0.59
154 29 28 -25 0 0 11 41 33.2 41 344 -57 154 0 1 154 59 2 153 55 42 155 3 23 0.59
154 48 13 -24 0 0 11 41 13.3 42 344 -57 154 18 56 155 17 37 154 14 39 155 21 56 0.59
155 7 29 -23 0 0 11 40 53.0 43 343 -58 154 38 21 155 36 43 154 34 5 155 41 0 0.59
155 27 16 -22 0 0 11 40 32.3 44 343 -58 154 58 16 155 56 21 154 54 2 156 0 37 0.59
155 47 34 -21 0 0 11 40 11.2 45 342 -59 155 18 43 156 16 32 155 14 30 156 20 47 0.59
156 8 24 -20 0 0 11 39 49.7 45 342 -60 155 39 39 156 37 14 155 35 27 156 41 28 0.58
156 29 45 -19 0 0 11 39 27.9 46 341 -60 156 1 7 156 58 29 155 56 56 157 2 42 0.58
156 51 38 -18 0 0 11 39 5.7 47 340 -61 156 23 6 157 20 16 156 18 56 157 24 28 0.58
157 14 3 -17 0 0 11 38 43.2 48 339 -61 156 45 36 157 42 36 156 41 26 157 46 48 0.58
157 37 0 -16 0 0 11 38 20.3 49 339 -62 157 8 38 158 5 30 157 4 29 158 9 40 0.58
158 0 31 -15 0 0 11 37 57.0 50 338 -62 157 32 11 158 28 56 157 28 3 158 33 7 0.58
158 24 34 -14 0 0 11 37 33.5 50 337 -63 157 56 18 158 52 57 157 52 10 158 57 7 0.58
158 49 11 -13 0 0 11 37 9.6 51 336 -63 158 20 57 159 17 32 158 16 50 159 21 41 0.57
159 14 22 -12 0 0 11 36 45.3 52 335 -64 158 46 10 159 42 42 158 42 3 159 46 51 0.57
159 40 8 -11 0 0 11 36 20.8 53 334 -64 159 11 57 160 8 27 159 7 50 160 12 36 0.57
160 6 30 -10 0 0 11 35 55.9 54 333 -64 159 38 19 160 34 48 159 34 11 160 38 58 0.57
160 33 28 - 9 0 0 11 35 30.7 54 332 -65 160 5 16 161 1 47 160 1 8 161 5 56 0.57
161 1 2 - 8 0 0 11 35 5.2 55 331 -65 160 32 49 161 29 23 160 28 41 161 33 32 0.56
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2023 Aug 6.7
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