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Updated: 2023 Jun 27, 04:36 UT
Event Rank : 6
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2023 Aug 30 UT, the 50 km diameter asteroid (471931) 2013 PH44 will occult a 14.0 mag star in the constellation Cetus for observers along an extremely large uncertainty path across north-western West Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 7.8 mag to 21.79 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.9 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 384-002677 by 471931 2013 PH44 on 2023 Aug 30
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
120 36 37 - 8 30 12 20 32 59.7 78 246 -22 120 23 27 - 8 26 3 120 49 48 - 8 34 20 115 26 42 - 6 48 14 125 55 20 -10 5 13 0.15
120 29 41 - 8 48 56 20 33 1.8 78 247 -22 120 16 31 - 8 44 47 120 42 53 - 8 53 5 115 19 34 - 7 6 54 125 48 39 -10 24 4 0.15
120 22 47 - 9 7 41 20 33 3.9 78 248 -22 120 9 35 - 9 3 31 120 35 59 - 9 11 49 115 12 26 - 7 25 33 125 42 0 -10 42 54 0.15
120 15 52 - 9 26 24 20 33 6.0 79 249 -23 120 2 40 - 9 22 15 120 29 5 - 9 30 33 115 5 19 - 7 44 12 125 35 21 -11 1 43 0.15
120 8 59 - 9 45 7 20 33 8.1 79 251 -23 119 55 46 - 9 40 57 120 22 12 - 9 49 16 114 58 12 - 8 2 49 125 28 44 -11 20 33 0.15
120 2 5 -10 3 49 20 33 10.2 79 252 -23 119 48 52 - 9 59 39 120 15 20 -10 7 58 114 51 5 - 8 21 26 125 22 8 -11 39 21 0.15
119 55 13 -10 22 31 20 33 12.3 79 253 -23 119 41 59 -10 18 21 120 8 28 -10 26 40 114 43 58 - 8 40 2 125 15 33 -11 58 9 0.15
119 48 21 -10 41 12 20 33 14.4 79 255 -23 119 35 6 -10 37 2 120 1 36 -10 45 22 114 36 50 - 8 58 37 125 9 0 -12 16 57 0.15
119 41 29 -10 59 53 20 33 16.5 79 256 -23 119 28 14 -10 55 42 119 54 46 -11 4 3 114 29 43 - 9 17 12 125 2 27 -12 35 45 0.15
119 34 38 -11 18 33 20 33 18.6 80 258 -23 119 21 22 -11 14 22 119 47 55 -11 22 43 114 22 36 - 9 35 46 124 55 55 -12 54 32 0.16
119 27 47 -11 37 13 20 33 20.7 80 260 -24 119 14 30 -11 33 2 119 41 5 -11 41 24 114 15 29 - 9 54 20 124 49 25 -13 13 19 0.16
119 20 57 -11 55 52 20 33 22.8 80 261 -24 119 7 39 -11 51 41 119 34 16 -12 0 3 114 8 21 -10 12 53 124 42 55 -13 32 6 0.16
119 14 7 -12 14 32 20 33 24.9 80 263 -24 119 0 48 -12 10 20 119 27 26 -12 18 43 114 1 13 -10 31 25 124 36 26 -13 50 53 0.16
119 7 17 -12 33 10 20 33 27.0 80 265 -24 118 53 57 -12 28 58 119 20 37 -12 37 22 113 54 5 -10 49 57 124 29 58 -14 9 39 0.16
119 0 27 -12 51 49 20 33 29.1 80 266 -24 118 47 7 -12 47 37 119 13 49 -12 56 1 113 46 57 -11 8 29 124 23 31 -14 28 25 0.16
118 53 38 -13 10 27 20 33 31.2 80 268 -24 118 40 17 -13 6 15 119 7 0 -13 14 40 113 39 49 -11 27 0 124 17 5 -14 47 12 0.16
118 46 49 -13 29 6 20 33 33.3 81 270 -24 118 33 27 -13 24 52 119 0 12 -13 33 18 113 32 40 -11 45 31 124 10 39 -15 5 58 0.16
118 40 0 -13 47 44 20 33 35.4 81 272 -24 118 26 37 -13 43 30 118 53 24 -13 51 56 113 25 30 -12 4 1 124 4 15 -15 24 44 0.16
118 33 11 -14 6 21 20 33 37.5 81 274 -25 118 19 47 -14 2 8 118 46 36 -14 10 35 113 18 21 -12 22 31 123 57 51 -15 43 30 0.16
118 26 22 -14 24 59 20 33 39.6 81 276 -25 118 12 57 -14 20 45 118 39 48 -14 29 13 113 11 11 -12 41 1 123 51 27 -16 2 17 0.16
118 19 34 -14 43 37 20 33 41.7 81 278 -25 118 6 8 -14 39 22 118 33 1 -14 47 51 113 4 0 -12 59 31 123 45 5 -16 21 3 0.16
118 12 45 -15 2 14 20 33 43.8 81 280 -25 117 59 18 -14 58 0 118 26 13 -15 6 29 112 56 49 -13 18 0 123 38 43 -16 39 49 0.16
118 5 56 -15 20 52 20 33 45.9 81 282 -25 117 52 28 -15 16 37 118 19 25 -15 25 7 112 49 37 -13 36 29 123 32 22 -16 58 36 0.16
117 59 8 -15 39 30 20 33 48.0 81 284 -25 117 45 38 -15 35 14 118 12 38 -15 43 45 112 42 25 -13 54 58 123 26 1 -17 17 23 0.16
117 52 19 -15 58 7 20 33 50.2 81 286 -25 117 38 48 -15 53 51 118 5 50 -16 2 23 112 35 12 -14 13 27 123 19 41 -17 36 10 0.16
117 45 30 -16 16 45 20 33 52.3 81 288 -25 117 31 58 -16 12 29 117 59 2 -16 21 1 112 27 58 -14 31 56 123 13 21 -17 54 57 0.16
117 38 41 -16 35 23 20 33 54.4 81 290 -25 117 25 8 -16 31 6 117 52 14 -16 39 39 112 20 44 -14 50 24 123 7 2 -18 13 45 0.16
117 31 51 -16 54 1 20 33 56.5 81 293 -26 117 18 18 -16 49 44 117 45 26 -16 58 18 112 13 29 -15 8 53 123 0 43 -18 32 33 0.16
117 25 2 -17 12 39 20 33 58.6 81 295 -26 117 11 27 -17 8 22 117 38 38 -17 16 56 112 6 13 -15 27 22 122 54 25 -18 51 21 0.16
117 18 12 -17 31 18 20 34 0.7 81 297 -26 117 4 36 -17 27 0 117 31 49 -17 35 35 111 58 56 -15 45 50 122 48 7 -19 10 10 0.16
117 11 22 -17 49 57 20 34 2.8 81 299 -26 116 57 44 -17 45 38 117 25 0 -17 54 14 111 51 39 -16 4 19 122 41 50 -19 28 59 0.16
117 4 31 -18 8 36 20 34 4.9 81 301 -26 116 50 53 -18 4 17 117 18 11 -18 12 54 111 44 20 -16 22 48 122 35 33 -19 47 49 0.16
116 57 41 -18 27 15 20 34 7.0 81 303 -26 116 44 1 -18 22 56 117 11 22 -18 31 34 111 37 0 -16 41 17 122 29 16 -20 6 39 0.16
116 50 49 -18 45 55 20 34 9.1 81 305 -26 116 37 8 -18 41 35 117 4 32 -18 50 14 111 29 40 -16 59 46 122 22 59 -20 25 30 0.16
116 43 58 -19 4 35 20 34 11.2 80 307 -26 116 30 15 -19 0 14 116 57 42 -19 8 54 111 22 18 -17 18 15 122 16 43 -20 44 21 0.16
116 37 6 -19 23 15 20 34 13.3 80 309 -26 116 23 22 -19 18 54 116 50 51 -19 27 35 111 14 56 -17 36 45 122 10 27 -21 3 13 0.16
116 30 13 -19 41 56 20 34 15.4 80 310 -26 116 16 27 -19 37 35 116 44 0 -19 46 17 111 7 32 -17 55 14 122 4 11 -21 22 5 0.16
116 23 20 -20 0 38 20 34 17.5 80 312 -27 116 9 33 -19 56 16 116 37 8 -20 4 59 111 0 7 -18 13 44 121 57 55 -21 40 58 0.16
116 16 26 -20 19 20 20 34 19.6 80 314 -27 116 2 37 -20 14 57 116 30 15 -20 23 41 110 52 41 -18 32 15 121 51 40 -21 59 52 0.16
116 9 31 -20 38 2 20 34 21.7 80 316 -27 115 55 42 -20 33 39 116 23 22 -20 42 24 110 45 14 -18 50 45 121 45 24 -22 18 47 0.16
116 2 36 -20 56 45 20 34 23.8 80 317 -27 115 48 45 -20 52 22 116 16 29 -21 1 8 110 37 45 -19 9 16 121 39 9 -22 37 43 0.16
115 55 40 -21 15 29 20 34 25.9 80 319 -27 115 41 47 -21 11 5 116 9 35 -21 19 52 110 30 15 -19 27 48 121 32 54 -22 56 39 0.16
115 48 44 -21 34 13 20 34 28.0 79 320 -27 115 34 49 -21 29 49 116 2 40 -21 38 37 110 22 43 -19 46 20 121 26 39 -23 15 36 0.16
115 41 46 -21 52 59 20 34 30.1 79 322 -27 115 27 50 -21 48 34 115 55 44 -21 57 23 110 15 10 -20 4 52 121 20 23 -23 34 34 0.16
115 34 48 -22 11 44 20 34 32.2 79 323 -27 115 20 50 -22 7 19 115 48 47 -22 16 9 110 7 36 -20 23 25 121 14 8 -23 53 33 0.16
115 27 49 -22 30 31 20 34 34.3 79 325 -27 115 13 50 -22 26 5 115 41 50 -22 34 56 110 0 0 -20 41 58 121 7 52 -24 12 33 0.16
115 20 49 -22 49 18 20 34 36.4 79 326 -27 115 6 48 -22 44 52 115 34 51 -22 53 44 109 52 23 -21 0 32 121 1 37 -24 31 34 0.16
115 13 48 -23 8 7 20 34 38.5 78 327 -28 114 59 45 -23 3 39 115 27 52 -23 12 33 109 44 43 -21 19 6 120 55 21 -24 50 36 0.16
115 6 46 -23 26 56 20 34 40.6 78 329 -28 114 52 41 -23 22 28 115 20 52 -23 31 23 109 37 3 -21 37 42 120 49 5 -25 9 40 0.16
114 59 43 -23 45 46 20 34 42.7 78 330 -28 114 45 36 -23 41 17 115 13 51 -23 50 13 109 29 20 -21 56 17 120 42 49 -25 28 44 0.16
114 52 39 -24 4 37 20 34 44.8 78 331 -28 114 38 31 -24 0 8 115 6 48 -24 9 5 109 21 36 -22 14 54 120 36 33 -25 47 49 0.16
114 45 34 -24 23 29 20 34 47.0 77 332 -28 114 31 23 -24 18 59 114 59 45 -24 27 57 109 13 49 -22 33 31 120 30 16 -26 6 56 0.16
114 38 27 -24 42 21 20 34 49.1 77 333 -28 114 24 15 -24 37 51 114 52 41 -24 46 51 109 6 1 -22 52 9 120 23 59 -26 26 4 0.16
114 31 19 -25 1 15 20 34 51.2 77 334 -28 114 17 5 -24 56 45 114 45 35 -25 5 46 108 58 11 -23 10 48 120 17 42 -26 45 14 0.16
114 24 10 -25 20 10 20 34 53.3 77 335 -28 114 9 54 -25 15 39 114 38 28 -25 24 41 108 50 19 -23 29 27 120 11 24 -27 4 24 0.16
114 17 0 -25 39 7 20 34 55.4 77 336 -28 114 2 42 -25 34 35 114 31 19 -25 43 38 108 42 25 -23 48 8 120 5 6 -27 23 36 0.16
114 9 48 -25 58 4 20 34 57.5 76 337 -28 113 55 28 -25 53 31 114 24 10 -26 2 36 108 34 28 -24 6 49 119 58 48 -27 42 50 0.16
114 2 35 -26 17 3 20 34 59.6 76 338 -28 113 48 13 -26 12 29 114 16 59 -26 21 35 108 26 30 -24 25 31 119 52 29 -28 2 5 0.16
113 55 21 -26 36 2 20 35 1.7 76 339 -28 113 40 56 -26 31 28 114 9 46 -26 40 36 108 18 29 -24 44 14 119 46 9 -28 21 21 0.16
113 48 5 -26 55 4 20 35 3.8 75 340 -29 113 33 38 -26 50 29 114 2 32 -26 59 38 108 10 26 -25 2 59 119 39 49 -28 40 39 0.16
113 40 47 -27 14 6 20 35 5.9 75 341 -29 113 26 18 -27 9 30 113 55 17 -27 18 41 108 2 21 -25 21 44 119 33 28 -28 59 58 0.16
113 33 27 -27 33 10 20 35 8.0 75 342 -29 113 18 57 -27 28 33 113 48 0 -27 37 45 107 54 13 -25 40 30 119 27 7 -29 19 20 0.16
113 26 6 -27 52 15 20 35 10.1 75 342 -29 113 11 33 -27 47 38 113 40 41 -27 56 51 107 46 2 -25 59 18 119 20 45 -29 38 43 0.16
113 18 44 -28 11 21 20 35 12.2 74 343 -29 113 4 8 -28 6 44 113 33 20 -28 15 59 107 37 49 -26 18 6 119 14 22 -29 58 7 0.16
113 11 19 -28 30 29 20 35 14.3 74 344 -29 112 56 41 -28 25 51 113 25 58 -28 35 7 107 29 34 -26 36 56 119 7 58 -30 17 34 0.16
113 3 53 -28 49 39 20 35 16.4 74 344 -29 112 49 13 -28 45 0 113 18 34 -28 54 18 107 21 15 -26 55 47 119 1 34 -30 37 2 0.16
112 56 24 -29 8 50 20 35 18.5 74 345 -29 112 41 42 -29 4 10 113 11 8 -29 13 30 107 12 54 -27 14 39 118 55 9 -30 56 32 0.16
112 48 54 -29 28 3 20 35 20.6 73 346 -29 112 34 9 -29 23 22 113 3 40 -29 32 43 107 4 30 -27 33 32 118 48 43 -31 16 4 0.16
112 41 21 -29 47 17 20 35 22.7 73 346 -29 112 26 34 -29 42 35 112 56 10 -29 51 59 106 56 3 -27 52 27 118 42 16 -31 35 38 0.16
112 33 47 -30 6 33 20 35 24.8 73 347 -29 112 18 57 -30 1 51 112 48 38 -30 11 16 106 47 33 -28 11 23 118 35 48 -31 55 14 0.16
112 26 10 -30 25 51 20 35 26.9 72 348 -29 112 11 18 -30 21 8 112 41 4 -30 30 34 106 39 0 -28 30 21 118 29 19 -32 14 52 0.16
112 18 31 -30 45 11 20 35 29.0 72 348 -29 112 3 36 -30 40 26 112 33 28 -30 49 55 106 30 24 -28 49 19 118 22 49 -32 34 32 0.16
112 10 50 -31 4 32 20 35 31.1 72 349 -29 111 55 52 -30 59 47 112 25 49 -31 9 17 106 21 45 -29 8 20 118 16 18 -32 54 14 0.16
112 3 6 -31 23 56 20 35 33.2 72 349 -29 111 48 6 -31 19 9 112 18 8 -31 28 41 106 13 2 -29 27 22 118 9 45 -33 13 59 0.16
111 55 20 -31 43 21 20 35 35.3 71 350 -30 111 40 17 -31 38 34 112 10 25 -31 48 7 106 4 16 -29 46 25 118 3 12 -33 33 45 0.16
111 47 31 -32 2 48 20 35 37.4 71 350 -30 111 32 25 -31 58 0 112 2 39 -32 7 35 105 55 26 -30 5 30 117 56 37 -33 53 34 0.16
111 39 40 -32 22 17 20 35 39.5 71 351 -30 111 24 31 -32 17 28 111 54 51 -32 27 5 105 46 33 -30 24 37 117 50 1 -34 13 26 0.16
111 31 46 -32 41 48 20 35 41.6 70 351 -30 111 16 34 -32 36 58 111 47 0 -32 46 38 105 37 36 -30 43 45 117 43 23 -34 33 20 0.16
111 23 49 -33 1 22 20 35 43.8 70 352 -30 111 8 35 -32 56 31 111 39 6 -33 6 12 105 28 35 -31 2 55 117 36 44 -34 53 16 0.16
111 15 50 -33 20 57 20 35 45.9 70 352 -30 111 0 32 -33 16 5 111 31 9 -33 25 48 105 19 30 -31 22 7 117 30 4 -35 13 16 0.16
111 7 47 -33 40 35 20 35 48.0 69 353 -30 110 52 27 -33 35 42 111 23 10 -33 45 27 105 10 22 -31 41 20 117 23 22 -35 33 17 0.16
110 59 42 -34 0 15 20 35 50.1 69 353 -30 110 44 18 -33 55 21 111 15 7 -34 5 8 105 1 9 -32 0 36 117 16 39 -35 53 21 0.16
110 51 33 -34 19 57 20 35 52.2 69 354 -30 110 36 6 -34 15 2 111 7 2 -34 24 52 104 51 52 -32 19 53 117 9 53 -36 13 28 0.16
110 43 21 -34 39 42 20 35 54.3 68 354 -30 110 27 51 -34 34 46 110 58 53 -34 44 37 104 42 30 -32 39 13 117 3 6 -36 33 38 0.16
110 35 6 -34 59 29 20 35 56.4 68 355 -30 110 19 33 -34 54 32 110 50 41 -35 4 25 104 33 4 -32 58 34 116 56 18 -36 53 51 0.16
110 26 48 -35 19 18 20 35 58.5 68 355 -30 110 11 11 -35 14 20 110 42 26 -35 24 16 104 23 34 -33 17 57 116 49 27 -37 14 6 0.16
110 18 25 -35 39 10 20 36 0.6 68 355 -30 110 2 45 -35 34 11 110 34 8 -35 44 9 104 13 59 -33 37 22 116 42 35 -37 34 25 0.17
110 10 0 -35 59 5 20 36 2.7 67 356 -30 109 54 16 -35 54 4 110 25 45 -36 4 5 104 4 19 -33 56 49 116 35 40 -37 54 46 0.17
110 1 30 -36 19 2 20 36 4.8 67 356 -30 109 45 43 -36 14 0 110 17 20 -36 24 3 103 54 35 -34 16 19 116 28 44 -38 15 11 0.17
109 52 57 -36 39 2 20 36 6.9 67 357 -30 109 37 7 -36 33 59 110 8 50 -36 44 4 103 44 45 -34 35 50 116 21 45 -38 35 38 0.17
109 44 20 -36 59 4 20 36 9.0 66 357 -30 109 28 26 -36 54 0 110 0 16 -37 4 8 103 34 50 -34 55 24 116 14 44 -38 56 9 0.17
109 35 39 -37 19 9 20 36 11.1 66 357 -30 109 19 41 -37 14 4 109 51 39 -37 24 14 103 24 49 -35 15 0 116 7 41 -39 16 44 0.17
109 26 54 -37 39 18 20 36 13.2 66 358 -30 109 10 52 -37 34 11 109 42 57 -37 44 24 103 14 44 -35 34 39 116 0 35 -39 37 21 0.17
109 18 4 -37 59 29 20 36 15.3 65 358 -30 109 1 59 -37 54 21 109 34 12 -38 4 36 103 4 32 -35 54 20 115 53 27 -39 58 2 0.17
109 9 10 -38 19 43 20 36 17.4 65 358 -30 108 53 1 -38 14 34 109 25 21 -38 24 51 102 54 15 -36 14 3 115 46 17 -40 18 47 0.17
109 0 11 -38 40 0 20 36 19.5 65 359 -30 108 43 58 -38 34 50 109 16 27 -38 45 10 102 43 52 -36 33 48 115 39 4 -40 39 35 0.17
108 51 8 -39 0 20 20 36 21.6 64 359 -30 108 34 51 -38 55 8 109 7 28 -39 5 31 102 33 23 -36 53 36 115 31 48 -41 0 27 0.17
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