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Updated: 2023 MAY 28, 23:43 UT
Event Rank : 98
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2023 Jul 31 UT, the 47.8 km diameter asteroid (1579) Herrick will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a path including most of the south-eastern coast-line of the South Island of New Zealand from about Akaroa to Invercargill.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.36 mag to 16.16 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.260 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 415-141333 by 1579 Herrick on 2023 Jul 31
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
179 45 8 -42 13 30 16 37 46.0 25 284 -29 179 12 19 -42 1 16 -179 41 13 -42 25 40 178 50 0 -41 52 46 -179 17 21 -42 34 6 1.36
179 12 44 -42 25 29 16 37 48.4 26 285 -29 178 40 14 -42 13 10 179 46 2 -42 37 45 178 18 9 -42 4 37 -179 50 23 -42 46 13 1.36
178 40 41 -42 37 25 16 37 50.9 26 285 -29 178 8 30 -42 25 2 179 13 38 -42 49 46 177 46 38 -42 16 25 179 37 0 -42 58 19 1.36
178 8 56 -42 49 20 16 37 53.4 26 286 -30 177 37 5 -42 36 52 178 41 36 -43 1 46 177 15 23 -42 28 11 179 4 43 -43 10 22 1.36
177 37 30 -43 1 12 16 37 55.8 27 286 -30 177 5 56 -42 48 39 178 9 53 -43 13 44 176 44 26 -42 39 56 178 32 46 -43 22 23 1.36
177 6 23 -43 13 3 16 37 58.3 27 287 -30 176 35 4 -43 0 25 177 38 27 -43 25 39 176 13 45 -42 51 38 178 1 8 -43 34 22 1.36
176 35 31 -43 24 51 16 38 0.8 27 287 -31 176 4 28 -43 12 9 177 7 18 -43 37 32 175 43 19 -43 3 19 177 29 48 -43 46 19 1.36
176 4 55 -43 36 38 16 38 3.2 28 288 -31 175 34 6 -43 23 51 176 36 26 -43 49 24 175 13 8 -43 14 58 176 58 45 -43 58 14 1.36
175 34 34 -43 48 24 16 38 5.7 28 288 -31 175 4 0 -43 35 32 176 5 50 -44 1 14 174 43 11 -43 26 36 176 27 57 -44 10 7 1.36
175 4 27 -44 0 7 16 38 8.2 28 289 -32 174 34 6 -43 47 11 175 35 28 -44 13 2 174 13 27 -43 38 12 175 57 25 -44 21 59 1.36
174 34 33 -44 11 50 16 38 10.6 28 289 -32 174 4 26 -43 58 49 175 5 21 -44 24 49 173 43 55 -43 49 47 175 27 8 -44 33 49 1.36
174 4 52 -44 23 31 16 38 13.1 29 290 -32 173 34 58 -44 10 26 174 35 27 -44 36 35 173 14 36 -44 1 20 174 57 4 -44 45 38 1.36
173 35 24 -44 35 10 16 38 15.5 29 290 -33 173 5 42 -44 22 1 174 5 45 -44 48 19 172 45 28 -44 12 53 174 27 13 -44 57 25 1.36
173 6 7 -44 46 49 16 38 18.0 29 291 -33 172 36 36 -44 33 35 173 36 16 -45 0 2 172 16 31 -44 24 24 173 57 35 -45 9 11 1.37
172 37 0 -44 58 27 16 38 20.5 29 291 -33 172 7 42 -44 45 9 173 6 58 -45 11 44 171 47 44 -44 35 55 173 28 8 -45 20 56 1.37
172 8 5 -45 10 3 16 38 22.9 30 292 -34 171 38 57 -44 56 41 172 37 51 -45 23 25 171 19 7 -44 47 24 172 58 53 -45 32 40 1.37
171 39 19 -45 21 39 16 38 25.4 30 292 -34 171 10 22 -45 8 12 172 8 54 -45 35 5 170 50 39 -44 58 52 172 29 48 -45 44 23 1.37
171 10 43 -45 33 13 16 38 27.9 30 293 -34 170 41 56 -45 19 43 171 40 7 -45 46 44 170 22 20 -45 10 20 172 0 54 -45 56 5 1.37
170 42 15 -45 44 47 16 38 30.3 30 293 -35 170 13 39 -45 31 12 171 11 29 -45 58 22 169 54 9 -45 21 47 171 32 9 -46 7 47 1.37
170 13 56 -45 56 20 16 38 32.8 31 294 -35 169 45 29 -45 42 41 170 43 0 -46 9 59 169 26 6 -45 33 13 171 3 33 -46 19 27 1.37
169 45 45 -46 7 53 16 38 35.3 31 294 -35 169 17 28 -45 54 10 170 14 40 -46 21 36 168 58 11 -45 44 39 170 35 5 -46 31 7 1.37
169 17 42 -46 19 25 16 38 37.7 31 295 -35 168 49 33 -46 5 37 169 46 27 -46 33 12 168 30 23 -45 56 4 170 6 46 -46 42 46 1.37
168 49 46 -46 30 56 16 38 40.2 31 295 -36 168 21 46 -46 17 5 169 18 22 -46 44 48 168 2 41 -46 7 28 169 38 34 -46 54 24 1.37
168 21 57 -46 42 27 16 38 42.7 31 296 -36 167 54 5 -46 28 31 168 50 24 -46 56 23 167 35 6 -46 18 52 169 10 30 -47 6 2 1.37
167 54 14 -46 53 57 16 38 45.1 32 296 -36 167 26 31 -46 39 58 168 22 33 -47 7 57 167 7 37 -46 30 15 168 42 33 -47 17 40 1.37
167 26 37 -47 5 27 16 38 47.6 32 297 -36 166 59 2 -46 51 23 167 54 48 -47 19 31 166 40 14 -46 41 38 168 14 42 -47 29 17 1.37
166 59 6 -47 16 57 16 38 50.0 32 297 -37 166 31 38 -47 2 49 167 27 8 -47 31 5 166 12 55 -46 53 1 167 46 57 -47 40 54 1.37
166 31 40 -47 28 26 16 38 52.5 32 298 -37 166 4 20 -47 14 14 166 59 35 -47 42 38 165 45 42 -47 4 23 167 19 18 -47 52 30 1.37
166 4 19 -47 39 55 16 38 55.0 32 298 -37 165 37 7 -47 25 39 166 32 6 -47 54 12 165 18 34 -47 15 46 166 51 44 -48 4 6 1.37
165 37 3 -47 51 24 16 38 57.4 33 299 -37 165 9 57 -47 37 4 166 4 43 -48 5 44 164 51 30 -47 27 7 166 24 15 -48 15 42 1.37
165 9 51 -48 2 52 16 38 59.9 33 299 -38 164 42 53 -47 48 28 165 37 24 -48 17 17 164 24 29 -47 38 29 165 56 51 -48 27 18 1.37
164 42 43 -48 14 21 16 39 2.4 33 300 -38 164 15 51 -47 59 53 165 10 9 -48 28 50 163 57 33 -47 49 51 165 29 31 -48 38 53 1.37
164 15 39 -48 25 49 16 39 4.8 33 301 -38 163 48 54 -48 11 17 164 42 58 -48 40 22 163 30 40 -48 1 12 165 2 16 -48 50 29 1.37
163 48 38 -48 37 17 16 39 7.3 33 301 -38 163 22 0 -48 22 41 164 15 50 -48 51 55 163 3 50 -48 12 34 164 35 3 -49 2 4 1.37
163 21 40 -48 48 46 16 39 9.8 33 302 -39 162 55 8 -48 34 5 163 48 46 -49 3 27 162 37 3 -48 23 55 164 7 55 -49 13 40 1.37
162 54 46 -49 0 14 16 39 12.2 33 302 -39 162 28 20 -48 45 29 163 21 45 -49 15 0 162 10 19 -48 35 17 163 40 49 -49 25 15 1.37
162 27 53 -49 11 43 16 39 14.7 34 303 -39 162 1 33 -48 56 54 162 54 47 -49 26 33 161 43 36 -48 46 38 163 13 46 -49 36 51 1.37
162 1 3 -49 23 11 16 39 17.2 34 303 -39 161 34 49 -49 8 18 162 27 51 -49 38 5 161 16 56 -48 58 0 162 46 46 -49 48 27 1.37
161 34 15 -49 34 40 16 39 19.6 34 304 -39 161 8 7 -49 19 43 162 0 57 -49 49 38 160 50 18 -49 9 21 162 19 48 -50 0 2 1.37
161 7 29 -49 46 8 16 39 22.1 34 304 -40 160 41 26 -49 31 7 161 34 5 -50 1 11 160 23 41 -49 20 43 161 52 52 -50 11 38 1.37
160 40 44 -49 57 38 16 39 24.5 34 305 -40 160 14 47 -49 42 32 161 7 14 -50 12 45 159 57 6 -49 32 5 161 25 57 -50 23 15 1.37
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2023 May 29.0
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