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Updated: 2023 MAY 28, 23:41 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2023 Jul 27 UT, the 185.6 km diameter asteroid (94) Aurora will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a path across the North Island of New Zealand, including all the North Island south-west of Paengaroa and north-east of Wanganui, and across Australia from roughly Bundaberg (in evening twilight) along the coast as far as Mackay and then inland to northern Queensland just on sunset.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.07 mag to 13.05 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 20.750 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 280-132885 by 94 Aurora on 2023 Jul 27
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
122 0 0 - 1 24 33 8 17 35.0 12 125 23 - 0 20 24 - 2 29 0 0 0 14 - 2 49 52 0.20
123 0 0 - 2 10 15 8 17 31.6 13 125 22 - 1 5 56 - 3 14 53 - 0 45 13 - 3 35 49 0.20
124 0 0 - 2 56 16 8 17 27.8 14 125 21 - 1 51 47 - 4 1 5 - 1 31 1 - 4 22 4 0.20
125 0 0 - 3 42 35 8 17 23.6 16 124 20 - 2 37 56 - 4 47 33 - 2 17 7 - 5 8 36 0.20
126 0 0 - 4 29 10 8 17 19.2 17 124 18 - 3 24 21 - 5 34 18 - 3 3 30 - 5 55 23 0.20
127 0 0 - 5 15 59 8 17 14.4 18 124 17 - 4 11 2 - 6 21 16 - 3 50 7 - 6 42 24 0.20
128 0 0 - 6 3 1 8 17 9.2 19 124 16 - 4 57 55 - 7 8 25 - 4 36 58 - 7 29 36 0.20
129 0 0 - 6 50 12 8 17 3.8 21 124 15 - 5 44 59 - 7 55 45 - 5 24 0 - 8 16 58 0.20
130 0 0 - 7 37 33 8 16 58.0 22 124 14 - 6 32 13 - 8 43 12 - 6 11 11 - 9 4 28 0.20
131 0 0 - 8 25 0 8 16 51.9 23 124 12 - 7 19 34 - 9 30 46 - 6 58 31 - 9 52 4 0.20
132 0 0 - 9 12 33 8 16 45.5 24 123 11 - 8 7 1 -10 18 24 - 7 45 56 -10 39 44 0.20
133 0 0 -10 0 8 8 16 38.8 26 123 10 - 8 54 32 -11 6 4 - 8 33 25 -11 27 26 0.20
134 0 0 -10 47 45 8 16 31.8 27 123 9 - 9 42 4 -11 53 45 - 9 20 56 -12 15 8 0.20
135 0 0 -11 35 21 8 16 24.5 28 123 8 -10 29 37 -12 41 25 -10 8 27 -13 2 49 0.20
136 0 0 -12 22 54 8 16 16.9 29 122 7 -11 17 7 -13 29 1 -10 55 57 -13 50 27 0.20
137 0 0 -13 10 24 8 16 9.1 30 122 5 -12 4 34 -14 16 33 -11 43 23 -14 37 59 0.20
138 0 0 -13 57 47 8 16 1.0 32 122 4 -12 51 56 -15 3 58 -12 30 45 -15 25 24 0.20
139 0 0 -14 45 2 8 15 52.7 33 121 3 -13 39 10 -15 51 14 -13 17 59 -16 12 41 0.20
140 0 0 -15 32 7 8 15 44.1 34 121 2 -14 26 16 -16 38 19 -14 5 4 -16 59 46 0.20
141 0 0 -16 19 1 8 15 35.3 35 121 1 -15 13 10 -17 25 13 -14 51 59 -17 46 40 0.20
142 0 0 -17 5 42 8 15 26.3 36 120 0 -15 59 52 -18 11 53 -15 38 41 -18 33 19 0.21
143 0 0 -17 52 8 8 15 17.0 38 120 -1 -16 46 20 -18 58 17 -16 25 10 -19 19 43 0.21
144 0 0 -18 38 18 8 15 7.6 39 119 -3 -17 32 32 -19 44 24 -17 11 23 -20 5 49 0.21
145 0 0 -19 24 9 8 14 58.0 40 119 -4 -18 18 27 -20 30 12 -17 57 19 -20 51 36 0.21
146 0 0 -20 9 41 8 14 48.2 41 118 -5 -19 4 3 -21 15 41 -18 42 56 -21 37 4 0.21
147 0 0 -20 54 53 8 14 38.2 42 118 -6 -19 49 19 -22 0 47 -19 28 13 -22 22 9 0.21
148 0 0 -21 39 41 8 14 28.1 43 117 -7 -20 34 13 -22 45 31 -20 13 8 -23 6 51 0.21
149 0 0 -22 24 6 8 14 17.9 45 117 -8 -21 18 43 -23 29 50 -20 57 41 -23 51 8 0.21
150 0 0 -23 8 6 8 14 7.5 46 116 -9 -22 2 50 -24 13 44 -21 41 49 -24 35 0 0.21
151 0 0 -23 51 40 8 13 57.0 47 115 -10 -22 46 30 -24 57 11 -22 25 32 -25 18 25 0.21
152 0 0 -24 34 47 8 13 46.4 48 115 -11 -23 29 44 -25 40 10 -23 8 48 -26 1 21 0.21
153 0 0 -25 17 25 8 13 35.7 49 114 -12 -24 12 30 -26 22 40 -23 51 37 -26 43 49 0.21
154 0 0 -25 59 33 8 13 24.9 50 113 -13 -24 54 47 -27 4 40 -24 33 57 -27 25 46 0.21
155 0 0 -26 41 11 8 13 14.0 51 112 -14 -25 36 34 -27 46 9 -25 15 46 -28 7 12 0.21
156 0 0 -27 22 18 8 13 3.1 52 111 -15 -26 17 50 -28 27 6 -25 57 5 -28 48 6 0.21
157 0 0 -28 2 52 8 12 52.1 53 111 -16 -26 58 34 -29 7 30 -26 37 53 -29 28 27 0.21
158 0 0 -28 42 53 8 12 41.1 54 110 -17 -27 38 46 -29 47 21 -27 18 8 -30 8 14 0.21
159 0 0 -29 22 21 8 12 30.0 55 109 -18 -28 18 24 -30 26 38 -27 57 50 -30 47 27 0.22
160 0 0 -30 1 14 8 12 18.9 56 108 -19 -28 57 28 -31 5 20 -28 36 58 -31 26 6 0.22
161 0 0 -30 39 32 8 12 7.8 57 107 -20 -29 35 58 -31 43 26 -29 15 31 -32 4 9 0.22
162 0 0 -31 17 15 8 11 56.7 58 106 -21 -30 13 53 -32 20 57 -29 53 30 -32 41 35 0.22
163 0 0 -31 54 22 8 11 45.6 59 104 -22 -30 51 12 -32 57 51 -30 30 53 -33 18 26 0.22
164 0 0 -32 30 52 8 11 34.5 60 103 -23 -31 27 55 -33 34 9 -31 7 40 -33 54 39 0.22
165 0 0 -33 6 46 8 11 23.3 61 102 -24 -32 4 2 -34 9 50 -31 43 50 -34 30 16 0.22
166 0 0 -33 42 3 8 11 12.2 62 101 -24 -32 39 32 -34 44 54 -32 19 25 -35 5 15 0.22
167 0 0 -34 16 42 8 11 1.2 63 99 -25 -33 14 25 -35 19 20 -32 54 22 -35 39 37 0.22
168 0 0 -34 50 44 8 10 50.1 63 98 -26 -33 48 40 -35 53 8 -33 28 42 -36 13 21 0.22
169 0 0 -35 24 9 8 10 39.1 64 97 -27 -34 22 18 -36 26 18 -34 2 24 -36 46 27 0.22
170 0 0 -35 56 56 8 10 28.2 65 95 -28 -34 55 19 -36 58 51 -34 35 29 -37 18 55 0.22
171 0 0 -36 29 5 8 10 17.2 66 93 -29 -35 27 42 -37 30 46 -35 7 57 -37 50 45 0.22
172 0 0 -37 0 36 8 10 6.4 67 92 -29 -35 59 27 -38 2 2 -35 39 47 -38 21 57 0.22
173 0 0 -37 31 29 8 9 55.6 67 90 -30 -36 30 35 -38 32 41 -36 10 59 -38 52 31 0.22
174 0 0 -38 1 44 8 9 44.8 68 88 -31 -37 1 5 -39 2 42 -36 41 34 -39 22 27 0.22
175 0 0 -38 31 22 8 9 34.1 69 86 -32 -37 30 57 -39 32 5 -37 11 31 -39 51 45 0.23
176 0 0 -39 0 23 8 9 23.5 70 84 -32 -38 0 12 -40 0 51 -37 40 50 -40 20 26 0.23
177 0 0 -39 28 45 8 9 12.9 70 82 -33 -38 28 50 -40 28 59 -38 9 32 -40 48 29 0.23
178 0 0 -39 56 31 8 9 2.5 71 80 -34 -38 56 50 -40 56 29 -38 37 37 -41 15 55 0.23
179 0 0 -40 23 40 8 8 52.0 71 77 -35 -39 24 13 -41 23 23 -39 5 5 -41 42 44 0.23
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2023 May 29.0
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