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Updated: 2023 MAY 28, 23:39 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2023 Jul 21 UT, the 45.2 km diameter asteroid (856) Backlunda will occult a 12.0 mag star in the constellation Scutum for observers along a path across south-eastern Australia, including eastern Victoria east of about Sale, and along the southern New South Wales coast to about Wollongong.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.07 mag to 13.88 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.300 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 373-143499 by 856 Backlunda on 2023 Jul 21
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
169 58 55 -20 6 56 16 15 28.6 22 261 -41 169 30 33 -20 3 38 170 27 52 -20 10 3 169 15 38 -20 1 48 170 43 35 -20 11 39 1.04
169 27 1 -20 27 19 16 15 32.0 22 261 -42 168 59 8 -20 23 51 169 55 27 -20 30 37 168 44 27 -20 21 57 170 10 53 -20 32 18 1.04
168 55 55 -20 47 28 16 15 35.5 23 261 -42 168 28 27 -20 43 52 169 23 53 -20 50 55 168 13 59 -20 41 53 169 39 3 -20 52 42 1.04
168 25 32 -21 7 24 16 15 38.9 23 262 -43 167 58 28 -21 3 40 168 53 5 -21 11 1 167 44 13 -21 1 37 169 8 1 -21 12 53 1.04
167 55 50 -21 27 9 16 15 42.3 24 262 -43 167 29 9 -21 23 17 168 23 0 -21 30 54 167 15 5 -21 21 9 168 37 42 -21 32 51 1.05
167 26 47 -21 46 43 16 15 45.8 24 262 -44 167 0 26 -21 42 43 167 53 34 -21 50 36 166 46 33 -21 40 32 168 8 5 -21 52 37 1.05
166 58 19 -22 6 6 16 15 49.2 25 262 -44 166 32 18 -22 1 59 167 24 47 -22 10 6 166 18 35 -21 59 44 167 39 6 -22 12 12 1.05
166 30 26 -22 25 20 16 15 52.7 25 263 -45 166 4 43 -22 21 6 166 56 35 -22 29 27 165 51 9 -22 18 48 167 10 43 -22 31 36 1.05
166 3 5 -22 44 25 16 15 56.1 26 263 -45 165 37 38 -22 40 4 166 28 56 -22 48 38 165 24 13 -22 37 42 166 42 54 -22 50 51 1.05
165 36 13 -23 3 21 16 15 59.5 26 263 -46 165 11 2 -22 58 54 166 1 48 -23 7 41 164 57 45 -22 56 29 166 15 37 -23 9 57 1.05
165 9 50 -23 22 9 16 16 3.0 26 264 -46 164 44 53 -23 17 36 165 35 9 -23 26 35 164 31 43 -23 15 8 165 48 50 -23 28 54 1.05
164 43 53 -23 40 49 16 16 6.4 27 264 -46 164 19 10 -23 36 11 165 8 58 -23 45 21 164 6 7 -23 33 40 165 22 30 -23 47 44 1.05
164 18 22 -23 59 22 16 16 9.9 27 264 -47 163 53 52 -23 54 39 164 43 13 -24 4 0 163 40 56 -23 52 5 164 56 38 -24 6 25 1.05
163 53 14 -24 17 48 16 16 13.3 28 264 -47 163 28 57 -24 13 0 164 17 53 -24 22 31 163 16 7 -24 10 24 164 31 11 -24 25 0 1.05
163 28 30 -24 36 8 16 16 16.8 28 265 -48 163 4 24 -24 31 15 163 52 56 -24 40 56 162 51 39 -24 28 36 164 6 8 -24 43 28 1.05
163 4 7 -24 54 22 16 16 20.2 28 265 -48 162 40 12 -24 49 24 163 28 22 -24 59 15 162 27 33 -24 46 42 163 41 28 -25 1 49 1.05
162 40 5 -25 12 30 16 16 23.6 29 265 -48 162 16 20 -25 7 27 163 4 10 -25 17 28 162 3 46 -25 4 43 163 17 9 -25 20 5 1.05
162 16 23 -25 30 32 16 16 27.1 29 266 -49 161 52 47 -25 25 25 162 40 18 -25 35 35 161 40 19 -25 22 39 162 53 12 -25 38 14 1.05
161 53 0 -25 48 30 16 16 30.5 29 266 -49 161 29 33 -25 43 18 162 16 45 -25 53 36 161 17 9 -25 40 29 162 29 34 -25 56 18 1.05
161 29 55 -26 6 22 16 16 34.0 30 266 -49 161 6 36 -26 1 6 161 53 31 -26 11 33 160 54 17 -25 58 15 162 6 15 -26 14 17 1.05
161 7 7 -26 24 9 16 16 37.4 30 267 -50 160 43 56 -26 18 49 161 30 35 -26 29 24 160 31 41 -26 15 56 161 43 14 -26 32 11 1.05
160 44 35 -26 41 52 16 16 40.9 30 267 -50 160 21 33 -26 36 28 161 7 55 -26 47 11 160 9 21 -26 33 33 161 20 31 -26 50 0 1.05
160 22 20 -26 59 30 16 16 44.3 31 267 -50 159 59 24 -26 54 2 160 45 33 -27 4 54 159 47 17 -26 51 6 160 58 4 -27 7 44 1.05
160 0 20 -27 17 5 16 16 47.7 31 268 -51 159 37 31 -27 11 33 160 23 25 -27 22 32 159 25 27 -27 8 34 160 35 53 -27 25 25 1.05
159 38 34 -27 34 35 16 16 51.2 31 268 -51 159 15 52 -27 29 0 160 1 33 -27 40 6 159 3 51 -27 25 59 160 13 57 -27 43 1 1.05
159 17 3 -27 52 1 16 16 54.6 32 268 -51 158 54 26 -27 46 23 159 39 56 -27 57 36 158 42 28 -27 43 20 159 52 16 -28 0 33 1.05
158 55 45 -28 9 24 16 16 58.1 32 269 -51 158 33 14 -28 3 42 159 18 32 -28 15 3 158 21 19 -28 0 38 159 30 49 -28 18 2 1.05
158 34 40 -28 26 44 16 17 1.5 32 269 -52 158 12 15 -28 20 58 158 57 21 -28 32 26 158 0 22 -28 17 52 159 9 35 -28 35 27 1.05
158 13 48 -28 44 0 16 17 5.0 33 269 -52 157 51 27 -28 38 11 158 36 24 -28 49 45 157 39 38 -28 35 3 158 48 35 -28 52 48 1.05
157 53 8 -29 1 13 16 17 8.4 33 270 -52 157 30 52 -28 55 21 158 15 39 -29 7 2 157 19 5 -28 52 11 158 27 47 -29 10 6 1.05
157 32 39 -29 18 23 16 17 11.8 33 270 -53 157 10 28 -29 12 28 157 55 5 -29 24 15 156 58 43 -29 9 16 158 7 11 -29 27 22 1.05
157 12 22 -29 35 31 16 17 15.3 34 270 -53 156 50 15 -29 29 32 157 34 44 -29 41 26 156 38 32 -29 26 19 157 46 47 -29 44 34 1.05
156 52 15 -29 52 35 16 17 18.7 34 271 -53 156 30 12 -29 46 33 157 14 33 -29 58 33 156 18 31 -29 43 19 157 26 34 -30 1 43 1.06
156 32 19 -30 9 37 16 17 22.2 34 271 -53 156 10 20 -30 3 32 156 54 33 -30 15 38 155 58 41 -30 0 16 157 6 32 -30 18 50 1.06
156 12 33 -30 26 36 16 17 25.6 34 271 -54 155 50 37 -30 20 28 156 34 43 -30 32 41 155 39 0 -30 17 10 156 46 40 -30 35 54 1.06
155 52 57 -30 43 33 16 17 29.1 35 272 -54 155 31 4 -30 37 22 156 15 4 -30 49 41 155 19 29 -30 34 3 156 26 59 -30 52 56 1.06
155 33 30 -31 0 28 16 17 32.5 35 272 -54 155 11 40 -30 54 14 155 55 34 -31 6 39 155 0 7 -30 50 53 156 7 27 -31 9 55 1.06
155 14 12 -31 17 21 16 17 35.9 35 272 -54 154 52 25 -31 11 4 155 36 13 -31 23 34 154 40 53 -31 7 41 155 48 5 -31 26 52 1.06
154 55 3 -31 34 11 16 17 39.4 35 273 -54 154 33 19 -31 27 51 155 17 1 -31 40 27 154 21 48 -31 24 27 155 28 51 -31 43 47 1.06
154 36 3 -31 51 0 16 17 42.8 36 273 -55 154 14 21 -31 44 37 154 57 58 -31 57 19 154 2 51 -31 41 12 155 9 47 -32 0 40 1.06
154 17 11 -32 7 46 16 17 46.3 36 274 -55 153 55 31 -32 1 21 154 39 4 -32 14 8 153 44 3 -31 57 54 154 50 51 -32 17 31 1.06
153 58 26 -32 24 31 16 17 49.7 36 274 -55 153 36 49 -32 18 3 154 20 18 -32 30 56 153 25 21 -32 14 35 154 32 4 -32 34 20 1.06
153 39 50 -32 41 14 16 17 53.1 36 274 -55 153 18 14 -32 34 43 154 1 39 -32 47 42 153 6 48 -32 31 13 154 13 24 -32 51 8 1.06
153 21 21 -32 57 56 16 17 56.6 37 275 -55 152 59 47 -32 51 22 153 43 8 -33 4 26 152 48 21 -32 47 51 153 54 52 -33 7 53 1.06
153 2 59 -33 14 36 16 18 0.0 37 275 -56 152 41 26 -33 7 59 153 24 45 -33 21 9 152 30 2 -33 4 27 153 36 28 -33 24 37 1.06
152 44 44 -33 31 14 16 18 3.5 37 275 -56 152 23 13 -33 24 35 153 6 28 -33 37 50 152 11 49 -33 21 1 153 18 10 -33 41 20 1.06
152 26 36 -33 47 51 16 18 6.9 37 276 -56 152 5 6 -33 41 10 152 48 19 -33 54 30 151 53 43 -33 37 34 153 0 1 -33 58 1 1.06
152 8 34 -34 4 27 16 18 10.4 37 276 -56 151 47 6 -33 57 43 152 30 17 -34 11 8 151 35 43 -33 54 6 152 41 58 -34 14 41 1.06
151 50 39 -34 21 2 16 18 13.8 38 277 -56 151 29 11 -34 14 15 152 12 20 -34 27 46 151 17 49 -34 10 37 152 24 1 -34 31 20 1.06
151 32 50 -34 37 35 16 18 17.2 38 277 -56 151 11 23 -34 30 46 151 54 30 -34 44 22 151 0 1 -34 27 6 152 6 10 -34 47 58 1.06
151 15 7 -34 54 8 16 18 20.7 38 277 -57 150 53 40 -34 47 16 151 36 46 -35 0 57 150 42 19 -34 43 35 151 48 26 -35 4 34 1.06
150 57 30 -35 10 39 16 18 24.1 38 278 -57 150 36 3 -35 3 45 151 19 8 -35 17 31 150 24 42 -35 0 2 151 30 48 -35 21 10 1.06
150 39 58 -35 27 10 16 18 27.6 38 278 -57 150 18 32 -35 20 13 151 1 36 -35 34 4 150 7 11 -35 16 29 151 13 15 -35 37 44 1.06
150 22 31 -35 43 39 16 18 31.0 39 279 -57 150 1 5 -35 36 40 150 44 9 -35 50 36 149 49 44 -35 32 55 150 55 48 -35 54 17 1.06
150 5 10 -36 0 8 16 18 34.5 39 279 -57 149 43 44 -35 53 6 150 26 48 -36 7 7 149 32 23 -35 49 20 150 38 26 -36 10 50 1.06
149 47 53 -36 16 36 16 18 37.9 39 279 -57 149 26 28 -36 9 32 150 9 31 -36 23 38 149 15 7 -36 5 44 150 21 10 -36 27 22 1.06
149 30 42 -36 33 4 16 18 41.3 39 280 -57 149 9 17 -36 25 57 149 52 20 -36 40 8 148 57 55 -36 22 8 150 3 59 -36 43 53 1.06
149 13 35 -36 49 30 16 18 44.8 39 280 -57 148 52 10 -36 42 21 149 35 13 -36 56 37 148 40 49 -36 38 31 149 46 52 -37 0 24 1.06
148 56 33 -37 5 57 16 18 48.2 39 281 -58 148 35 8 -36 58 45 149 18 12 -37 13 6 148 23 46 -36 54 53 149 29 51 -37 16 54 1.06
148 39 35 -37 22 22 16 18 51.7 40 281 -58 148 18 9 -37 15 8 149 1 14 -37 29 34 148 6 48 -37 11 15 149 12 54 -37 33 24 1.07
148 22 42 -37 38 47 16 18 55.1 40 281 -58 148 1 15 -37 31 31 148 44 21 -37 46 2 147 49 54 -37 27 36 148 56 1 -37 49 53 1.07
148 5 52 -37 55 12 16 18 58.6 40 282 -58 147 44 25 -37 47 53 148 27 33 -38 2 29 147 33 3 -37 43 57 148 39 13 -38 6 21 1.07
147 49 7 -38 11 37 16 19 2.0 40 282 -58 147 27 39 -38 4 15 148 10 48 -38 18 56 147 16 16 -38 0 18 148 22 29 -38 22 50 1.07
147 32 25 -38 28 1 16 19 5.4 40 283 -58 147 10 56 -38 20 37 147 54 7 -38 35 23 146 59 33 -38 16 39 148 5 48 -38 39 18 1.07
147 15 47 -38 44 25 16 19 8.9 40 283 -58 146 54 17 -38 36 58 147 37 31 -38 51 49 146 42 54 -38 32 59 147 49 12 -38 55 46 1.07
146 59 13 -39 0 49 16 19 12.3 40 284 -58 146 37 42 -38 53 20 147 20 57 -39 8 16 146 26 18 -38 49 19 147 32 39 -39 12 13 1.07
146 42 42 -39 17 13 16 19 15.8 41 284 -58 146 21 10 -39 9 41 147 4 28 -39 24 42 146 9 45 -39 5 39 147 16 11 -39 28 41 1.07
146 26 14 -39 33 36 16 19 19.2 41 284 -58 146 4 41 -39 26 2 146 48 1 -39 41 8 145 53 15 -39 21 59 146 59 45 -39 45 8 1.07
146 9 50 -39 50 0 16 19 22.6 41 285 -58 145 48 15 -39 42 23 146 31 38 -39 57 34 145 36 48 -39 38 19 146 43 23 -40 1 36 1.07
145 53 28 -40 6 24 16 19 26.1 41 285 -58 145 31 51 -39 58 45 146 15 19 -40 14 1 145 20 24 -39 54 39 146 27 4 -40 18 4 1.07
145 37 10 -40 22 48 16 19 29.5 41 286 -58 145 15 31 -40 15 6 145 59 2 -40 30 27 145 4 3 -40 10 59 146 10 48 -40 34 31 1.07
145 20 54 -40 39 12 16 19 33.0 41 286 -58 144 59 14 -40 31 27 145 42 48 -40 46 53 144 47 45 -40 27 19 145 54 35 -40 50 59 1.07
145 4 41 -40 55 36 16 19 36.4 41 287 -58 144 42 59 -40 47 49 145 26 37 -41 3 20 144 31 29 -40 43 39 145 38 25 -41 7 27 1.07
144 48 30 -41 12 0 16 19 39.9 41 287 -58 144 26 46 -41 4 11 145 10 28 -41 19 47 144 15 15 -41 0 0 145 22 18 -41 23 55 1.07
144 32 22 -41 28 25 16 19 43.3 41 288 -58 144 10 36 -41 20 33 144 54 22 -41 36 14 143 59 4 -41 16 20 145 6 13 -41 40 24 1.07
144 16 17 -41 44 50 16 19 46.7 42 288 -58 143 54 28 -41 36 56 144 38 19 -41 52 42 143 42 55 -41 32 42 144 50 11 -41 56 53 1.07
144 0 13 -42 1 15 16 19 50.2 42 288 -58 143 38 22 -41 53 19 144 22 18 -42 9 10 143 26 47 -41 49 3 144 34 11 -42 13 22 1.07
143 44 12 -42 17 41 16 19 53.6 42 289 -58 143 22 18 -42 9 42 144 6 19 -42 25 38 143 10 42 -42 5 25 144 18 13 -42 29 52 1.07
143 28 12 -42 34 7 16 19 57.1 42 289 -58 143 6 16 -42 26 6 143 50 22 -42 42 7 142 54 39 -42 21 48 144 2 18 -42 46 22 1.07
143 12 15 -42 50 34 16 20 0.5 42 290 -58 142 50 16 -42 42 30 143 34 27 -42 58 36 142 38 37 -42 38 11 143 46 25 -43 2 53 1.07
142 56 19 -43 7 2 16 20 4.0 42 290 -58 142 34 18 -42 58 55 143 18 34 -43 15 6 142 22 37 -42 54 34 143 30 33 -43 19 24 1.07
142 40 25 -43 23 30 16 20 7.4 42 291 -58 142 18 21 -43 15 20 143 2 43 -43 31 37 142 6 39 -43 10 58 143 14 43 -43 35 56 1.07
142 24 32 -43 39 59 16 20 10.8 42 291 -58 142 2 25 -43 31 47 142 46 53 -43 48 8 141 50 42 -43 27 23 142 58 56 -43 52 29 1.07
142 8 41 -43 56 28 16 20 14.3 42 292 -58 141 46 31 -43 48 13 142 31 5 -44 4 41 141 34 46 -43 43 49 142 43 9 -44 9 3 1.07
141 52 51 -44 12 58 16 20 17.7 42 292 -58 141 30 38 -44 4 41 142 15 19 -44 21 14 141 18 52 -44 0 15 142 27 25 -44 25 37 1.08
141 37 3 -44 29 29 16 20 21.2 42 293 -58 141 14 46 -44 21 10 141 59 34 -44 37 47 141 2 58 -44 16 42 142 11 41 -44 42 12 1.08
141 21 15 -44 46 1 16 20 24.6 42 293 -58 140 58 55 -44 37 39 141 43 50 -44 54 22 140 47 5 -44 33 10 141 55 59 -44 58 48 1.08
141 5 29 -45 2 34 16 20 28.1 42 294 -58 140 43 5 -44 54 9 141 28 7 -45 10 58 140 31 14 -44 49 39 141 40 18 -45 15 25 1.08
140 49 43 -45 19 8 16 20 31.5 42 294 -58 140 27 16 -45 10 40 141 12 25 -45 27 34 140 15 23 -45 6 8 141 24 39 -45 32 4 1.08
140 33 59 -45 35 43 16 20 34.9 42 294 -58 140 11 28 -45 27 13 140 56 44 -45 44 12 139 59 32 -45 22 39 141 9 0 -45 48 43 1.08
140 18 15 -45 52 19 16 20 38.4 43 295 -58 139 55 40 -45 43 46 140 41 4 -46 0 50 139 43 42 -45 39 11 140 53 22 -46 5 23 1.08
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2023 May 29.0
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