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Updated: 2023 Mar 01, 01:19 UT
Event Rank : 86
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2023 Apr 21 UT, the 78 km diameter asteroid (501) Urhixidur will occult a 12.0 mag star in the constellation Ara for observers along a slightly uncertain path across New Zealand, passing over Cape Reinga and Christchurch.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.9 mag to 14.80 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.3 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 209-135240 by 501 Urhixidur on 2023 Apr 21
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
172 41 39 -34 12 42 17 50 30.9 62 230 -14 172 14 26 -34 14 53 173 8 55 -34 10 22 171 42 49 -34 17 14 173 40 43 -34 7 28 0.38
172 40 22 -34 33 13 17 50 34.3 62 230 -14 172 13 3 -34 35 23 173 7 44 -34 30 54 171 41 18 -34 37 44 173 39 40 -34 28 0 0.38
172 39 8 -34 53 42 17 50 37.7 62 230 -14 172 11 42 -34 55 52 173 6 37 -34 51 23 171 39 50 -34 58 11 173 38 39 -34 48 30 0.38
172 37 58 -35 14 8 17 50 41.1 63 231 -14 172 10 25 -35 16 17 173 5 33 -35 11 49 171 38 26 -35 18 37 173 37 43 -35 8 56 0.39
172 36 50 -35 34 32 17 50 44.5 63 232 -14 172 9 12 -35 36 41 173 4 32 -35 32 13 171 37 4 -35 39 0 173 36 50 -35 29 21 0.39
172 35 47 -35 54 53 17 50 47.9 63 232 -14 172 8 1 -35 57 2 173 3 35 -35 52 35 171 35 46 -35 59 20 173 36 0 -35 49 43 0.39
172 34 46 -36 15 12 17 50 51.3 63 233 -15 172 6 54 -36 17 21 173 2 41 -36 12 54 171 34 32 -36 19 38 173 35 15 -36 10 3 0.39
172 33 49 -36 35 29 17 50 54.8 64 233 -15 172 5 50 -36 37 37 173 1 51 -36 33 12 171 33 20 -36 39 55 173 34 32 -36 30 20 0.39
172 32 57 -36 55 43 17 50 58.2 64 234 -15 172 4 50 -36 57 51 173 1 5 -36 53 27 171 32 11 -37 0 9 173 33 54 -36 50 35 0.39
172 32 7 -37 15 56 17 51 1.6 64 234 -15 172 3 53 -37 18 4 173 0 23 -37 13 39 171 31 6 -37 20 21 173 33 20 -37 10 48 0.39
172 31 20 -37 36 7 17 51 5.0 64 235 -15 172 3 0 -37 38 14 172 59 43 -37 33 50 171 30 4 -37 40 31 173 32 49 -37 30 59 0.39
172 30 37 -37 56 15 17 51 8.4 64 235 -15 172 2 10 -37 58 22 172 59 8 -37 53 58 171 29 5 -38 0 39 173 32 22 -37 51 8 0.39
172 29 58 -38 16 22 17 51 11.8 64 236 -15 172 1 23 -38 18 29 172 58 36 -38 14 5 171 28 10 -38 20 45 173 31 59 -38 11 15 0.39
172 29 23 -38 36 26 17 51 15.2 65 237 -15 172 0 40 -38 38 33 172 58 8 -38 34 10 171 27 18 -38 40 49 173 31 40 -38 31 19 0.39
172 28 51 -38 56 29 17 51 18.6 65 237 -15 172 0 0 -38 58 36 172 57 44 -38 54 13 171 26 29 -39 0 52 173 31 25 -38 51 22 0.39
172 28 22 -39 16 30 17 51 22.0 65 238 -15 171 59 24 -39 18 37 172 57 24 -39 14 14 171 25 44 -39 20 53 173 31 14 -39 11 23 0.39
172 27 58 -39 36 29 17 51 25.4 65 238 -15 171 58 52 -39 38 36 172 57 7 -39 34 13 171 25 2 -39 40 52 173 31 6 -39 31 23 0.39
172 27 37 -39 56 27 17 51 28.9 65 239 -15 171 58 23 -39 58 33 172 56 55 -39 54 10 171 24 24 -40 0 49 173 31 3 -39 51 20 0.39
172 27 20 -40 16 22 17 51 32.3 66 240 -15 171 57 58 -40 18 29 172 56 46 -40 14 6 171 23 49 -40 20 45 173 31 4 -40 11 16 0.39
172 27 7 -40 36 17 17 51 35.7 66 240 -15 171 57 36 -40 38 23 172 56 41 -40 34 0 171 23 18 -40 40 39 173 31 9 -40 31 10 0.39
172 26 58 -40 56 9 17 51 39.1 66 241 -15 171 57 19 -40 58 16 172 56 41 -40 53 53 171 22 50 -41 0 31 173 31 18 -40 51 2 0.39
172 26 53 -41 16 0 17 51 42.5 66 242 -15 171 57 5 -41 18 7 172 56 44 -41 13 44 171 22 27 -41 20 23 173 31 32 -41 10 53 0.39
172 26 52 -41 35 50 17 51 45.9 66 242 -15 171 56 55 -41 37 56 172 56 52 -41 33 33 171 22 6 -41 40 12 173 31 50 -41 30 42 0.39
172 26 55 -41 55 38 17 51 49.3 66 243 -15 171 56 49 -41 57 45 172 57 4 -41 53 21 171 21 50 -42 0 0 173 32 12 -41 50 30 -0.39
172 27 2 -42 15 24 17 51 52.7 66 244 -15 171 56 47 -42 17 31 172 57 20 -42 13 7 171 21 37 -42 19 47 173 32 39 -42 10 16 -0.39
172 27 14 -42 35 10 17 51 56.1 67 244 -15 171 56 49 -42 37 17 172 57 41 -42 32 53 171 21 29 -42 39 33 173 33 10 -42 30 1 -0.39
172 27 29 -42 54 53 17 51 59.5 67 245 -15 171 56 55 -42 57 1 172 58 6 -42 52 36 171 21 24 -42 59 17 173 33 46 -42 49 44 -0.39
172 27 49 -43 14 36 17 52 3.0 67 246 -15 171 57 5 -43 16 44 172 58 35 -43 12 19 171 21 23 -43 19 0 173 34 27 -43 9 26 -0.39
172 28 13 -43 34 17 17 52 6.4 67 246 -15 171 57 20 -43 36 25 172 59 9 -43 32 0 171 21 26 -43 38 42 173 35 12 -43 29 7 -0.39
172 28 42 -43 53 58 17 52 9.8 67 247 -15 171 57 39 -43 56 6 172 59 48 -43 51 40 171 21 33 -43 58 23 173 36 2 -43 48 46 -0.39
172 29 15 -44 13 37 17 52 13.2 67 248 -15 171 58 2 -44 15 45 173 0 31 -44 11 18 171 21 45 -44 18 2 173 36 57 -44 8 25 -0.39
172 29 53 -44 33 15 17 52 16.6 67 249 -15 171 58 30 -44 35 23 173 1 19 -44 30 56 171 22 0 -44 37 41 173 37 57 -44 28 2 -0.39
172 30 36 -44 52 51 17 52 20.0 67 249 -15 171 59 2 -44 55 1 173 2 12 -44 50 32 171 22 20 -44 57 18 173 39 2 -44 47 37 -0.40
172 31 23 -45 12 27 17 52 23.4 67 250 -15 171 59 38 -45 14 37 173 3 10 -45 10 7 171 22 45 -45 16 55 173 40 12 -45 7 12 -0.40
172 32 15 -45 32 2 17 52 26.8 67 251 -15 172 0 20 -45 34 12 173 4 12 -45 29 42 171 23 13 -45 36 30 173 41 27 -45 26 46 -0.40
172 33 12 -45 51 36 17 52 30.2 68 251 -15 172 1 6 -45 53 46 173 5 20 -45 49 15 171 23 47 -45 56 5 173 42 48 -45 46 18 -0.40
172 34 14 -46 11 8 17 52 33.6 68 252 -15 172 1 56 -46 13 19 173 6 33 -46 8 47 171 24 24 -46 15 39 173 44 14 -46 5 50 -0.40
172 35 21 -46 30 40 17 52 37.1 68 253 -15 172 2 52 -46 32 52 173 7 52 -46 28 19 171 25 7 -46 35 12 173 45 45 -46 25 21 -0.40
172 36 33 -46 50 11 17 52 40.5 68 254 -15 172 3 53 -46 52 23 173 9 15 -46 47 49 171 25 54 -46 54 44 173 47 22 -46 44 50 -0.40
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