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Updated: 2023 FEB 15, 20:55 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2023 Mar 31 UT, the 83.9 km diameter asteroid (978) Aidamina will occult a 10.5 mag star in the constellation Hydra for observers along a path across Australia, along the eastern coast from about Port Macquarie to Bundaberg.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.34 mag to 15.87 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 7.480 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 4875-01461-1 by 978 Aidamina on 2023 Mar 31
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
149 52 21 0 0 0 10 41 27.4 79 233 -39 150 15 21 149 29 23 150 30 47 149 14 0 -0.17
149 56 42 - 1 0 0 10 41 17.6 79 237 -39 150 19 42 149 33 43 150 35 8 149 18 20 -0.17
150 1 13 - 2 0 0 10 41 7.8 80 242 -39 150 24 14 149 38 13 150 39 40 149 22 50 -0.17
150 5 54 - 3 0 0 10 40 58.0 80 247 -39 150 28 56 149 42 54 150 44 24 149 27 29 -0.17
150 10 46 - 4 0 0 10 40 48.1 80 253 -39 150 33 50 149 47 44 150 49 19 149 32 19 -0.16
150 15 49 - 5 0 0 10 40 38.2 81 258 -40 150 38 55 149 52 45 150 54 25 149 37 18 -0.16
150 21 3 - 6 0 0 10 40 28.4 81 264 -40 150 44 12 149 57 56 150 59 43 149 42 28 -0.16
150 26 28 - 7 0 0 10 40 18.5 81 271 -40 150 49 40 150 3 18 151 5 13 149 47 48 -0.16
150 32 4 - 8 0 0 10 40 8.6 81 277 -40 150 55 19 150 8 51 151 10 54 149 53 18 -0.16
150 37 51 - 9 0 0 10 39 58.8 80 282 -40 151 1 10 150 14 34 151 16 48 149 58 59 -0.16
150 43 50 -10 0 0 10 39 48.9 80 288 -40 151 7 13 150 20 29 151 22 54 150 4 50 -0.16
150 50 0 -11 0 0 10 39 39.0 80 293 -40 151 13 28 150 26 34 151 29 12 150 10 53 -0.16
150 56 22 -12 0 0 10 39 29.2 79 298 -40 151 19 55 150 32 51 151 35 43 150 17 6 -0.16
151 2 56 -13 0 0 10 39 19.4 79 302 -40 151 26 35 150 39 20 151 42 27 150 23 31 -0.16
151 9 43 -14 0 0 10 39 9.6 78 306 -40 151 33 28 150 46 0 151 49 24 150 30 7 -0.16
151 16 42 -15 0 0 10 38 59.8 77 309 -40 151 40 34 150 52 52 151 56 34 150 36 55 -0.16
151 23 54 -16 0 0 10 38 50.0 77 312 -40 151 47 53 150 59 57 152 3 58 150 43 55 -0.16
151 31 20 -17 0 0 10 38 40.3 76 315 -39 151 55 26 151 7 15 152 11 37 150 51 7 -0.16
151 38 58 -18 0 0 10 38 30.5 75 317 -39 152 3 13 151 14 45 152 19 30 150 58 33 -0.16
151 46 51 -19 0 0 10 38 20.9 74 319 -39 152 11 15 151 22 29 152 27 38 151 6 11 -0.16
151 54 59 -20 0 0 10 38 11.2 73 321 -39 152 19 32 151 30 27 152 36 1 151 14 2 -0.16
152 3 21 -21 0 0 10 38 1.6 73 323 -39 152 28 5 151 38 40 152 44 40 151 22 8 -0.15
152 11 59 -22 0 0 10 37 52.1 72 325 -39 152 36 53 151 47 7 152 53 36 151 30 28 -0.15
152 20 53 -23 0 0 10 37 42.5 71 326 -39 152 45 58 151 55 49 153 2 48 151 39 3 -0.15
152 30 3 -24 0 0 10 37 33.1 70 327 -39 152 55 20 152 4 48 153 12 18 151 47 53 -0.15
152 39 30 -25 0 0 10 37 23.6 69 328 -39 153 5 0 152 14 2 153 22 7 151 57 0 -0.15
152 49 15 -26 0 0 10 37 14.3 68 329 -38 153 14 59 152 23 34 153 32 15 152 6 23 -0.15
152 59 19 -27 0 0 10 37 4.9 67 330 -38 153 25 17 152 33 24 153 42 42 152 16 3 -0.15
153 9 42 -28 0 0 10 36 55.7 66 331 -38 153 35 55 152 43 32 153 53 30 152 26 1 -0.15
153 20 26 -29 0 0 10 36 46.5 65 332 -38 153 46 54 152 54 0 154 4 39 152 36 19 -0.15
153 31 30 -30 0 0 10 36 37.3 64 333 -38 153 58 14 153 4 48 154 16 11 152 46 56 -0.15
153 42 56 -31 0 0 10 36 28.3 63 333 -37 154 9 58 153 15 57 154 28 7 152 57 53 -0.15
153 54 46 -32 0 0 10 36 19.3 63 334 -37 154 22 6 153 27 28 154 40 27 153 9 12 -0.15
154 7 0 -33 0 0 10 36 10.3 62 334 -37 154 34 39 153 39 23 154 53 13 153 20 54 -0.15
154 19 39 -34 0 0 10 36 1.5 61 335 -37 154 47 39 153 51 42 155 6 26 153 33 0 -0.15
154 32 45 -35 0 0 10 35 52.7 60 335 -36 155 1 6 154 4 27 155 20 8 153 45 31 -0.15
154 46 19 -36 0 0 10 35 44.0 59 335 -36 155 15 3 154 17 39 155 34 20 153 58 28 -0.15
155 0 24 -37 0 0 10 35 35.4 58 336 -36 155 29 31 154 31 20 155 49 4 154 11 53 -0.15
155 15 0 -38 0 0 10 35 26.8 57 336 -36 155 44 32 154 45 31 156 4 22 154 25 47 -0.15
155 30 9 -39 0 0 10 35 18.4 56 336 -35 156 0 7 155 0 14 156 20 15 154 40 13 -0.15
155 45 53 -40 0 0 10 35 10.0 55 336 -35 156 16 20 155 15 31 156 36 46 154 55 12 -0.15
156 2 15 -41 0 0 10 35 1.8 54 337 -35 156 33 11 155 31 24 156 53 57 155 10 45 -0.15
156 19 18 -42 0 0 10 34 53.6 53 337 -34 156 50 44 155 47 55 157 11 51 155 26 56 -0.15
156 37 2 -43 0 0 10 34 45.5 52 337 -34 157 9 1 156 5 8 157 30 30 155 43 47 -0.15
156 55 32 -44 0 0 10 34 37.5 51 337 -34 157 28 6 156 23 4 157 49 58 156 1 21 -0.15
157 14 51 -45 0 0 10 34 29.7 50 337 -33 157 48 1 156 41 46 158 10 18 156 19 39 -0.15
157 35 2 -46 0 0 10 34 21.9 49 337 -33 158 8 50 157 1 19 158 31 33 156 38 46 -0.15
157 56 8 -47 0 0 10 34 14.2 48 337 -33 158 30 37 157 21 45 158 53 47 156 58 45 -0.15
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2023 Feb 15.9
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