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Updated: 2023 FEB 15, 20:52 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2023 Mar 23 UT, the 532 km diameter asteroid (2) Pallas will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Monoceros for observers along a very broad path across western Australia, including much of Western Australia west of Esperence and east of Kalbarri, and all north of Port Headland, and most of The Northern Territory other than the south-east.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.02 mag to 8.14 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 23.170 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 416-022314 by 2 Pallas on 2023 Mar 23
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
115 7 51 -38 55 23 14 50 19.3 31 288 -46 121 17 48 -40 11 42 109 55 21 -37 33 54 122 15 43 -40 21 44 109 15 9 -37 22 14 1.62
115 13 4 -38 36 17 14 50 20.9 32 288 -47 121 21 7 -39 52 18 110 1 58 -37 15 7 122 18 44 -40 2 18 109 21 55 -37 3 30 1.62
115 18 27 -38 17 15 14 50 22.4 32 288 -47 121 24 42 -39 32 57 110 8 41 -36 56 24 122 22 0 -39 42 55 109 28 49 -36 44 50 1.62
115 24 1 -37 58 15 14 50 24.0 32 287 -47 121 28 31 -39 13 39 110 15 32 -36 37 43 122 25 31 -39 23 34 109 35 49 -36 26 12 1.62
115 29 44 -37 39 18 14 50 25.6 32 287 -48 121 32 34 -38 54 24 110 22 30 -36 19 5 122 29 18 -39 4 17 109 42 56 -36 7 36 1.62
115 35 37 -37 20 24 14 50 27.2 32 287 -48 121 36 52 -38 35 12 110 29 36 -36 0 30 122 33 19 -38 45 2 109 50 10 -35 49 4 1.62
115 41 40 -37 1 33 14 50 28.7 32 287 -48 121 41 23 -38 16 2 110 36 48 -35 41 57 122 37 35 -38 25 50 109 57 31 -35 30 34 1.62
115 47 53 -36 42 45 14 50 30.3 32 286 -48 121 46 8 -37 56 55 110 44 8 -35 23 27 122 42 6 -38 6 41 110 4 59 -35 12 6 1.63
115 54 16 -36 23 59 14 50 31.9 32 286 -49 121 51 7 -37 37 51 110 51 34 -35 5 0 122 46 51 -37 47 35 110 12 33 -34 53 41 1.63
116 0 48 -36 5 16 14 50 33.5 32 286 -49 121 56 19 -37 18 50 110 59 8 -34 46 35 122 51 50 -37 28 31 110 20 14 -34 35 18 1.63
116 7 29 -35 46 35 14 50 35.0 32 286 -49 122 1 45 -36 59 51 111 6 49 -34 28 12 122 57 3 -37 9 29 110 28 2 -34 16 58 1.63
116 14 20 -35 27 57 14 50 36.6 32 285 -50 122 7 24 -36 40 54 111 14 36 -34 9 52 123 2 30 -36 50 30 110 35 56 -33 58 40 1.63
116 21 21 -35 9 21 14 50 38.2 32 285 -50 122 13 15 -36 22 0 111 22 31 -33 51 34 123 8 11 -36 31 33 110 43 58 -33 40 25 1.63
116 28 31 -34 50 47 14 50 39.7 32 285 -50 122 19 20 -36 3 8 111 30 33 -33 33 18 123 14 6 -36 12 39 110 52 6 -33 22 11 1.63
116 35 50 -34 32 16 14 50 41.3 32 284 -51 122 25 38 -35 44 19 111 38 41 -33 15 4 123 20 14 -35 53 47 111 0 20 -33 4 0 1.63
116 43 18 -34 13 46 14 50 42.9 31 284 -51 122 32 9 -35 25 31 111 46 57 -32 56 52 123 26 36 -35 34 57 111 8 42 -32 45 51 1.63
116 50 56 -33 55 19 14 50 44.5 31 284 -51 122 38 53 -35 6 46 111 55 19 -32 38 43 123 33 11 -35 16 9 111 17 10 -32 27 44 1.63
116 58 43 -33 36 54 14 50 46.0 31 284 -52 122 45 49 -34 48 3 112 3 49 -32 20 35 123 40 0 -34 57 23 111 25 45 -32 9 38 1.63
117 6 40 -33 18 31 14 50 47.6 31 283 -52 122 52 58 -34 29 21 112 12 26 -32 2 30 123 47 2 -34 38 39 111 34 27 -31 51 35 1.63
117 14 46 -33 0 10 14 50 49.2 31 283 -52 123 0 20 -34 10 42 112 21 9 -31 44 26 123 54 17 -34 19 57 111 43 15 -31 33 34 1.63
117 23 1 -32 41 51 14 50 50.8 31 283 -53 123 7 55 -33 52 4 112 30 0 -31 26 24 124 1 46 -34 1 16 111 52 10 -31 15 34 1.63
117 31 25 -32 23 34 14 50 52.3 31 283 -53 123 15 43 -33 33 29 112 38 58 -31 8 24 124 9 29 -33 42 38 112 1 12 -30 57 36 1.63
117 39 59 -32 5 19 14 50 53.9 31 282 -53 123 23 44 -33 14 55 112 48 3 -30 50 25 124 17 25 -33 24 1 112 10 21 -30 39 40 1.63
117 48 42 -31 47 5 14 50 55.5 31 282 -53 123 31 57 -32 56 22 112 57 15 -30 32 29 124 25 35 -33 5 26 112 19 37 -30 21 46 1.63
117 57 35 -31 28 53 14 50 57.1 31 282 -54 123 40 23 -32 37 51 113 6 34 -30 14 34 124 33 58 -32 46 52 112 29 0 -30 3 53 1.63
118 6 37 -31 10 42 14 50 58.6 31 281 -54 123 49 3 -32 19 22 113 16 0 -29 56 40 124 42 35 -32 28 20 112 38 29 -29 46 2 1.63
118 15 49 -30 52 33 14 51 0.2 31 281 -54 123 57 55 -32 0 54 113 25 34 -29 38 48 124 51 25 -32 9 49 112 48 6 -29 28 12 1.63
118 25 10 -30 34 26 14 51 1.8 31 281 -55 124 7 0 -31 42 28 113 35 15 -29 20 57 125 0 29 -31 51 20 112 57 50 -29 10 23 1.63
118 34 41 -30 16 20 14 51 3.4 31 281 -55 124 16 19 -31 24 2 113 45 3 -29 3 8 125 9 47 -31 32 52 113 7 41 -28 52 37 1.63
118 44 21 -29 58 15 14 51 4.9 31 280 -55 124 25 51 -31 5 38 113 54 59 -28 45 21 125 19 19 -31 14 25 113 17 39 -28 34 51 1.63
118 54 11 -29 40 12 14 51 6.5 31 280 -56 124 35 36 -30 47 16 114 5 2 -28 27 34 125 29 6 -30 55 59 113 27 44 -28 17 7 1.63
119 4 11 -29 22 10 14 51 8.1 30 280 -56 124 45 35 -30 28 54 114 15 13 -28 9 49 125 39 6 -30 37 34 113 37 56 -27 59 24 1.64
119 14 22 -29 4 9 14 51 9.7 30 279 -56 124 55 47 -30 10 33 114 25 31 -27 52 5 125 49 21 -30 19 11 113 48 17 -27 41 42 1.64
119 24 42 -28 46 9 14 51 11.2 30 279 -57 125 6 14 -29 52 14 114 35 58 -27 34 22 125 59 51 -30 0 48 113 58 44 -27 24 2 1.64
119 35 12 -28 28 11 14 51 12.8 30 279 -57 125 16 54 -29 33 55 114 46 32 -27 16 41 126 10 35 -29 42 26 114 9 19 -27 6 22 1.64
119 45 53 -28 10 13 14 51 14.4 30 279 -57 125 27 49 -29 15 37 114 57 14 -26 59 0 126 21 34 -29 24 5 114 20 2 -26 48 44 1.64
119 56 44 -27 52 17 14 51 15.9 30 278 -58 125 38 58 -28 57 20 115 8 4 -26 41 21 126 32 49 -29 5 44 114 30 53 -26 31 6 1.64
120 7 45 -27 34 21 14 51 17.5 30 278 -58 125 50 21 -28 39 4 115 19 2 -26 23 42 126 44 19 -28 47 24 114 41 51 -26 13 30 1.64
120 18 56 -27 16 26 14 51 19.1 30 278 -58 126 1 59 -28 20 48 115 30 9 -26 6 4 126 56 3 -28 29 5 114 52 57 -25 55 55 1.64
120 30 19 -26 58 32 14 51 20.7 30 278 -59 126 13 53 -28 2 32 115 41 23 -25 48 28 127 8 5 -28 10 46 115 4 12 -25 38 20 1.64
120 41 53 -26 40 39 14 51 22.2 29 277 -59 126 26 2 -27 44 17 115 52 47 -25 30 52 127 20 24 -27 52 27 115 15 34 -25 20 46 1.64
120 53 39 -26 22 46 14 51 23.8 29 277 -59 126 38 27 -27 26 3 116 4 18 -25 13 16 127 32 58 -27 34 9 115 27 5 -25 3 13 1.64
121 5 35 -26 4 54 14 51 25.4 29 277 -60 126 51 9 -27 7 49 116 15 58 -24 55 42 127 45 51 -27 15 51 115 38 44 -24 45 41 1.64
121 17 43 -25 47 3 14 51 27.0 29 277 -60 127 4 6 -26 49 35 116 27 47 -24 38 8 127 59 0 -26 57 33 115 50 32 -24 28 10 1.64
121 30 3 -25 29 12 14 51 28.5 29 276 -61 127 17 21 -26 31 21 116 39 46 -24 20 35 128 12 28 -26 39 15 116 2 28 -24 10 39 1.64
121 42 35 -25 11 21 14 51 30.1 29 276 -61 127 30 52 -26 13 7 116 51 53 -24 3 2 128 26 13 -26 20 57 116 14 33 -23 53 8 1.64
121 55 19 -24 53 31 14 51 31.7 28 276 -61 127 44 42 -25 54 53 117 4 10 -23 45 30 128 40 18 -26 2 39 116 26 48 -23 35 38 1.64
122 8 16 -24 35 41 14 51 33.3 28 275 -62 127 58 49 -25 36 38 117 16 36 -23 27 59 128 54 42 -25 44 20 116 39 11 -23 18 9 1.64
122 21 25 -24 17 52 14 51 34.8 28 275 -62 128 13 15 -25 18 24 117 29 12 -23 10 27 129 9 26 -25 26 1 116 51 44 -23 0 40 1.64
122 34 47 -24 0 2 14 51 36.4 28 275 -62 128 28 0 -25 0 9 117 41 58 -22 52 57 129 24 31 -25 7 42 117 4 27 -22 43 11 1.64
122 48 23 -23 42 13 14 51 38.0 28 275 -63 128 43 6 -24 41 54 117 54 53 -22 35 26 129 39 57 -24 49 21 117 17 19 -22 25 43 1.64
123 2 12 -23 24 24 14 51 39.6 28 274 -63 128 58 31 -24 23 37 118 7 59 -22 17 56 129 55 45 -24 31 1 117 30 20 -22 8 15 1.64
123 16 15 -23 6 34 14 51 41.1 27 274 -63 129 14 18 -24 5 21 118 21 15 -22 0 26 130 11 56 -24 12 39 117 43 32 -21 50 47 1.65
123 30 33 -22 48 45 14 51 42.7 27 274 -64 129 30 26 -23 47 3 118 34 42 -21 42 55 130 28 30 -23 54 16 117 56 54 -21 33 20 1.65
123 45 5 -22 30 55 14 51 44.3 27 274 -64 129 46 57 -23 28 44 118 48 20 -21 25 26 130 45 29 -23 35 51 118 10 27 -21 15 52 1.65
123 59 52 -22 13 5 14 51 45.9 27 273 -65 130 3 52 -23 10 25 119 2 9 -21 7 56 131 2 53 -23 17 26 118 24 11 -20 58 24 1.65
124 14 54 -21 55 15 14 51 47.4 26 273 -65 130 21 11 -22 52 3 119 16 9 -20 50 26 131 20 43 -22 58 59 118 38 5 -20 40 57 1.65
124 30 13 -21 37 24 14 51 49.0 26 273 -65 130 38 54 -22 33 41 119 30 21 -20 32 55 131 39 2 -22 40 30 118 52 11 -20 23 29 1.65
124 45 47 -21 19 32 14 51 50.6 26 273 -66 130 57 5 -22 15 17 119 44 45 -20 15 25 131 57 50 -22 21 59 119 6 28 -20 6 1 1.65
125 1 39 -21 1 40 14 51 52.1 26 272 -66 131 15 44 -21 56 51 119 59 21 -19 57 54 132 17 9 -22 3 26 119 20 57 -19 48 33 1.65
125 17 48 -20 43 47 14 51 53.7 26 272 -66 131 34 51 -21 38 23 120 14 10 -19 40 24 132 37 0 -21 44 51 119 35 38 -19 31 5 1.65
125 34 15 -20 25 54 14 51 55.3 25 272 -67 131 54 30 -21 19 52 120 29 11 -19 22 52 132 57 24 -21 26 13 119 50 31 -19 13 36 1.65
125 51 0 -20 7 59 14 51 56.9 25 272 -67 132 14 40 -21 1 20 120 44 26 -19 5 21 133 18 25 -21 7 32 120 5 37 -18 56 7 1.65
126 8 4 -19 50 3 14 51 58.4 25 271 -68 132 35 24 -20 42 44 120 59 54 -18 47 48 133 40 4 -20 48 48 120 20 56 -18 38 37 1.65
126 25 29 -19 32 6 14 52 0.0 25 271 -68 132 56 45 -20 24 6 121 15 37 -18 30 15 134 2 23 -20 30 1 120 36 29 -18 21 7 1.65
126 43 15 -19 14 8 14 52 1.6 24 271 -68 133 18 43 -20 5 24 121 31 33 -18 12 42 134 25 26 -20 11 10 120 52 15 -18 3 37 1.65
127 1 22 -18 56 8 14 52 3.2 24 271 -69 133 41 21 -19 46 39 121 47 45 -17 55 8 134 49 15 -19 52 14 121 8 16 -17 46 5 1.65
127 19 51 -18 38 7 14 52 4.7 24 271 -69 134 4 43 -19 27 50 122 4 11 -17 37 32 135 13 53 -19 33 13 121 24 30 -17 28 33 1.65
127 38 43 -18 20 4 14 52 6.3 23 270 -70 134 28 51 -19 8 56 122 20 53 -17 19 56 135 39 26 -19 14 8 121 41 0 -17 11 0 1.65
127 58 0 -18 1 59 14 52 7.9 23 270 -70 134 53 49 -18 49 58 122 37 52 -17 2 19 136 5 56 -18 54 56 121 57 46 -16 53 26 1.65
128 17 43 -17 43 53 14 52 9.5 23 270 -71 135 19 41 -18 30 54 122 55 7 -16 44 41 136 33 31 -18 35 38 122 14 48 -16 35 50 1.66
128 37 52 -17 25 44 14 52 11.0 22 270 -71 135 46 31 -18 11 44 123 12 40 -16 27 2 137 2 15 -18 16 12 122 32 6 -16 18 14 1.66
128 58 29 -17 7 32 14 52 12.6 22 269 -71 136 14 25 -17 52 27 123 30 31 -16 9 21 137 32 17 -17 56 38 122 49 42 -16 0 37 1.66
129 19 35 -16 49 18 14 52 14.2 22 269 -72 136 43 29 -17 33 3 123 48 41 -15 51 39 138 3 46 -17 36 55 123 7 35 -15 42 58 1.66
129 41 12 -16 31 1 14 52 15.8 21 269 -72 137 13 50 -17 13 31 124 7 10 -15 33 55 138 36 52 -17 17 1 123 25 47 -15 25 17 1.66
130 3 22 -16 12 41 14 52 17.3 21 269 -73 137 45 38 -16 53 49 124 25 59 -15 16 10 139 11 48 -16 56 54 123 44 18 -15 7 36 1.66
130 26 6 -15 54 18 14 52 18.9 21 268 -73 138 19 3 -16 33 56 124 45 9 -14 58 22 139 48 53 -16 36 33 124 3 9 -14 49 52 1.66
130 49 26 -15 35 51 14 52 20.5 20 268 -74 138 54 18 -16 13 51 125 4 41 -14 40 33 140 28 28 -16 15 54 124 22 21 -14 32 7 1.66
131 13 26 -15 17 21 14 52 22.1 20 268 -74 139 31 42 -15 53 31 125 24 36 -14 22 42 141 11 2 -15 54 54 124 41 54 -14 14 20 1.66
131 38 6 -14 58 46 14 52 23.6 19 268 -75 140 11 35 -15 32 54 125 44 55 -14 4 49 141 57 18 -15 33 29 125 1 49 -13 56 30 1.66
132 3 31 -14 40 6 14 52 25.2 19 268 -75 140 54 27 -15 11 55 126 5 38 -13 46 53 142 48 14 -15 11 29 125 22 8 -13 38 39 1.66
132 29 43 -14 21 21 14 52 26.8 19 267 -75 141 40 58 -14 50 31 126 26 47 -13 28 55 143 45 27 -14 48 45 125 42 51 -13 20 45 1.67
132 56 47 -14 2 31 14 52 28.3 18 267 -76 142 32 8 -14 28 33 126 48 23 -13 10 54 144 51 41 -14 24 56 126 4 0 -13 2 49 1.67
133 24 45 -13 43 35 14 52 29.9 18 267 -76 143 29 29 -14 5 51 127 10 28 -12 52 50 146 12 40 -13 59 19 126 25 36 -12 44 50 1.67
133 53 44 -13 24 32 14 52 31.5 17 267 -77 144 35 41 -13 42 5 127 33 4 -12 34 44 148 5 34 -13 29 50 126 47 40 -12 26 48 1.67
134 23 49 -13 5 22 14 52 33.1 17 267 -77 145 56 10 -13 16 35 127 56 10 -12 16 33 ... .. .. .. .. .. 127 10 13 -12 8 43 1.67
134 55 6 -12 46 3 14 52 34.6 16 266 -78 147 46 38 -12 47 27 128 19 51 -11 58 19 ... .. .. .. .. .. 127 33 18 -11 50 35 1.67
135 27 43 -12 26 36 14 52 36.2 16 266 -78 ... .. .. .. .. .. 128 44 7 -11 40 2 ... .. .. .. .. .. 127 56 56 -11 32 23 1.68
136 1 49 -12 6 57 14 52 37.8 15 266 -79 ... .. .. .. .. .. 129 9 1 -11 21 40 ... .. .. .. .. .. 128 21 8 -11 14 7 1.68
136 37 35 -11 47 8 14 52 39.4 14 266 -79 ... .. .. .. .. .. 129 34 34 -11 3 14 ... .. .. .. .. .. 128 45 58 -10 55 47 1.68
137 15 16 -11 27 4 14 52 40.9 14 266 -80 ... .. .. .. .. .. 130 0 51 -10 44 43 ... .. .. .. .. .. 129 11 26 -10 37 23 1.68
137 55 9 -11 6 45 14 52 42.5 13 265 -80 ... .. .. .. .. .. 130 27 54 -10 26 6 ... .. .. .. .. .. 129 37 37 -10 18 54 1.69
138 37 35 -10 46 8 14 52 44.1 12 265 -80 ... .. .. .. .. .. 130 55 46 -10 7 24 ... .. .. .. .. .. 130 4 33 -10 0 20 1.69
139 23 5 -10 25 8 14 52 45.7 11 265 -81 ... .. .. .. .. .. 131 24 31 - 9 48 36 ... .. .. .. .. .. 130 32 17 - 9 41 41 1.70
140 12 21 -10 3 41 14 52 47.2 11 265 -81 ... .. .. .. .. .. 131 54 13 - 9 29 41 ... .. .. .. .. .. 131 0 52 - 9 22 55 1.71
141 6 20 - 9 41 40 14 52 48.8 10 265 -81 ... .. .. .. .. .. 132 24 59 - 9 10 39 ... .. .. .. .. .. 131 30 24 - 9 4 3 1.72
142 6 35 - 9 18 54 14 52 50.4 9 264 -81 ... .. .. .. .. .. 132 56 53 - 8 51 28 ... .. .. .. .. .. 132 0 57 - 8 45 3 1.74
143 15 41 - 8 55 2 14 52 52.0 8 264 -81 ... .. .. .. .. .. 133 30 2 - 8 32 9 ... .. .. .. .. .. 132 32 36 - 8 25 56 1.78
144 38 46 - 8 29 29 14 52 53.5 6 264 -80 ... .. .. .. .. .. 134 4 36 - 8 12 39 ... .. .. .. .. .. 133 5 27 - 8 6 40 1.84
146 29 28 - 8 0 34 14 52 55.1 4 264 -79 ... .. .. .. .. .. 134 40 42 - 7 52 58 ... .. .. .. .. .. 133 39 40 - 7 47 14 2.01
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2023 Feb 15.9
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