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Updated: 2022 DEC 01, 02:09 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2023 Jan 05 UT, the 60.8 km diameter asteroid (43) Ariadne will occult a 12.3 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a fairly broad path across New Zealand, near Wellington and across the South Island from Blenheim to Fox, and across Tasmania including much of the central part of the island.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.35 mag to 11.24 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.540 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-554-034558 by 43 Ariadne on 2023 Jan 5
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
179 48 57 -43 57 29 13 11 19.2 24 343 -22 179 59 56 -44 37 18 179 38 39 -43 18 40 -179 59 15 -44 40 13 179 37 56 -43 15 54 1.89
179 18 13 -43 50 52 13 11 21.9 24 343 -22 179 28 43 -44 30 27 179 8 22 -43 12 16 179 29 30 -44 33 21 179 7 40 -43 9 31 1.89
178 47 44 -43 44 27 13 11 24.6 24 344 -22 178 57 46 -44 23 48 178 38 18 -43 6 3 178 58 31 -44 26 41 178 37 38 -43 3 18 1.89
178 17 29 -43 38 12 13 11 27.3 24 344 -23 178 27 4 -44 17 21 178 8 28 -43 0 0 178 27 47 -44 20 13 178 7 50 -42 57 16 1.89
177 47 27 -43 32 9 13 11 30.0 24 345 -23 177 56 36 -44 11 6 177 38 50 -42 54 8 177 57 17 -44 13 57 177 38 14 -42 51 25 1.89
177 17 37 -43 26 17 13 11 32.7 25 345 -23 177 26 21 -44 5 2 177 9 24 -42 48 27 177 27 1 -44 7 52 177 8 50 -42 45 45 1.89
176 48 0 -43 20 35 13 11 35.4 25 346 -23 176 56 20 -43 59 9 176 40 9 -42 42 55 176 56 57 -44 1 58 176 39 37 -42 40 14 1.89
176 18 34 -43 15 3 13 11 38.1 25 346 -23 176 26 30 -43 53 26 176 11 6 -42 37 33 176 27 6 -43 56 15 176 10 34 -42 34 52 1.89
175 49 19 -43 9 41 13 11 40.8 25 347 -23 175 56 52 -43 47 54 175 42 12 -42 32 20 175 57 26 -43 50 42 175 41 42 -42 29 41 1.89
175 20 14 -43 4 29 13 11 43.5 25 347 -24 175 27 25 -43 42 33 175 13 28 -42 27 17 175 27 57 -43 45 20 175 13 0 -42 24 38 1.89
174 51 19 -42 59 27 13 11 46.2 25 347 -24 174 58 9 -43 37 21 174 44 54 -42 22 23 174 58 39 -43 40 7 174 44 27 -42 19 44 1.89
174 22 34 -42 54 33 13 11 48.9 26 348 -24 174 29 2 -43 32 19 174 16 28 -42 17 38 174 29 31 -43 35 4 174 16 3 -42 15 0 1.89
173 53 58 -42 49 49 13 11 51.6 26 348 -24 174 0 5 -43 27 26 173 48 11 -42 13 2 174 0 33 -43 30 11 173 47 47 -42 10 24 1.89
173 25 30 -42 45 14 13 11 54.3 26 349 -24 173 31 17 -43 22 43 173 20 2 -42 8 33 173 31 43 -43 25 27 173 19 39 -42 5 56 1.89
172 57 10 -42 40 47 13 11 57.0 26 349 -24 173 2 38 -43 18 9 172 52 1 -42 4 13 173 3 2 -43 20 53 172 51 40 -42 1 37 1.89
172 28 58 -42 36 29 13 11 59.7 26 350 -24 172 34 7 -43 13 44 172 24 7 -42 0 2 172 34 30 -43 16 27 172 23 47 -41 57 26 1.89
172 0 54 -42 32 19 13 12 2.4 26 350 -25 172 5 43 -43 9 27 171 56 21 -41 56 0 172 6 5 -43 12 10 171 56 1 -41 53 24 1.89
171 32 56 -42 28 18 13 12 5.1 26 351 -25 171 37 27 -43 5 19 171 28 40 -41 52 5 171 37 47 -43 8 2 171 28 23 -41 49 30 1.89
171 5 5 -42 24 27 13 12 7.8 27 351 -25 171 9 18 -43 1 21 171 1 7 -41 48 18 171 9 37 -43 4 2 171 0 50 -41 45 43 1.89
170 37 21 -42 20 42 13 12 10.5 27 352 -25 170 41 16 -42 57 30 170 33 39 -41 44 40 170 41 33 -43 0 11 170 33 23 -41 42 6 1.89
170 9 42 -42 17 6 13 12 13.2 27 352 -25 170 13 20 -42 53 48 170 6 17 -41 41 9 170 13 36 -42 56 29 170 6 2 -41 38 35 1.89
169 42 9 -42 13 37 13 12 15.9 27 353 -25 169 45 29 -42 50 13 169 39 0 -41 37 45 169 45 44 -42 52 54 169 38 47 -41 35 12 1.89
169 14 41 -42 10 16 13 12 18.6 27 353 -25 169 17 45 -42 46 47 169 11 48 -41 34 29 169 17 59 -42 49 27 169 11 36 -41 31 56 1.89
168 47 18 -42 7 3 13 12 21.3 27 354 -25 168 50 6 -42 43 29 168 44 41 -41 31 20 168 50 18 -42 46 9 168 44 30 -41 28 47 1.89
168 20 1 -42 3 57 13 12 24.0 27 354 -25 168 22 31 -42 40 19 168 17 39 -41 28 19 168 22 42 -42 42 58 168 17 29 -41 25 46 1.89
167 52 47 -42 0 59 13 12 26.6 27 354 -25 167 55 2 -42 37 16 167 50 41 -41 25 25 167 55 12 -42 39 55 167 50 32 -41 22 52 1.89
167 25 38 -41 58 8 13 12 29.3 27 355 -25 167 27 36 -42 34 21 167 23 46 -41 22 38 167 27 45 -42 37 0 167 23 39 -41 20 6 1.89
166 58 32 -41 55 24 13 12 32.0 27 355 -26 167 0 15 -42 31 34 166 56 56 -41 19 58 167 0 23 -42 34 12 166 56 49 -41 17 26 1.89
166 31 30 -41 52 48 13 12 34.7 27 356 -26 166 32 58 -42 28 54 166 30 9 -41 17 26 166 33 4 -42 31 32 166 30 3 -41 14 54 1.89
166 4 32 -41 50 19 13 12 37.4 27 356 -26 166 5 44 -42 26 22 166 3 25 -41 15 0 166 5 49 -42 29 0 166 3 20 -41 12 28 1.89
165 37 37 -41 47 58 13 12 40.1 28 357 -26 165 38 33 -42 23 57 165 36 44 -41 12 41 165 38 37 -42 26 34 165 36 40 -41 10 10 1.89
165 10 44 -41 45 43 13 12 42.8 28 357 -26 165 11 26 -42 21 39 165 10 6 -41 10 29 165 11 29 -42 24 17 165 10 3 -41 7 58 1.89
164 43 54 -41 43 35 13 12 45.5 28 358 -26 164 44 21 -42 19 29 164 43 30 -41 8 24 164 44 23 -42 22 6 164 43 29 -41 5 53 1.89
164 17 7 -41 41 35 13 12 48.2 28 358 -26 164 17 18 -42 17 26 164 16 57 -41 6 26 164 17 19 -42 20 3 164 16 56 -41 3 55 1.89
163 50 21 -41 39 41 13 12 50.9 28 359 -26 163 50 18 -42 15 30 163 50 26 -41 4 34 163 50 18 -42 18 7 163 50 26 -41 2 4 1.89
163 23 38 -41 37 54 13 12 53.6 28 359 -26 163 23 20 -42 13 41 163 23 56 -41 2 50 163 23 19 -42 16 18 163 23 57 -41 0 19 1.89
162 56 56 -41 36 15 13 12 56.3 28 360 -26 162 56 24 -42 11 59 162 57 28 -41 1 12 162 56 21 -42 14 36 162 57 31 -40 58 41 1.89
162 30 16 -41 34 42 13 12 59.0 28 360 -26 162 29 29 -42 10 24 162 31 2 -40 59 40 162 29 25 -42 13 1 162 31 5 -40 57 10 1.89
162 3 36 -41 33 16 13 13 1.7 28 0 -26 162 2 35 -42 8 57 162 4 36 -40 58 16 162 2 30 -42 11 33 162 4 40 -40 55 46 1.89
161 36 58 -41 31 56 13 13 4.4 28 1 -26 161 35 42 -42 7 36 161 38 12 -40 56 58 161 35 37 -42 10 12 161 38 17 -40 54 28 1.89
161 10 21 -41 30 44 13 13 7.1 28 1 -26 161 8 50 -42 6 23 161 11 48 -40 55 46 161 8 44 -42 8 59 161 11 54 -40 53 16 1.89
160 43 44 -41 29 38 13 13 9.8 28 2 -26 160 41 59 -42 5 16 160 45 25 -40 54 41 160 41 51 -42 7 52 160 45 32 -40 52 11 1.89
160 17 7 -41 28 39 13 13 12.5 28 2 -26 160 15 8 -42 4 16 160 19 2 -40 53 43 160 14 59 -42 6 52 160 19 10 -40 51 13 1.89
159 50 30 -41 27 47 13 13 15.2 28 3 -26 159 48 17 -42 3 24 159 52 39 -40 52 51 159 48 7 -42 6 0 159 52 48 -40 50 21 1.89
159 23 54 -41 27 1 13 13 17.9 28 3 -26 159 21 26 -42 2 38 159 26 16 -40 52 6 159 21 15 -42 5 14 159 26 26 -40 49 36 1.89
158 57 16 -41 26 23 13 13 20.6 28 4 -26 158 54 34 -42 1 59 158 59 52 -40 51 27 158 54 22 -42 4 35 159 0 3 -40 48 58 1.89
158 30 39 -41 25 51 13 13 23.3 28 4 -26 158 27 42 -42 1 27 158 33 28 -40 50 55 158 27 29 -42 4 3 158 33 40 -40 48 25 1.89
158 4 0 -41 25 26 13 13 26.0 28 5 -26 158 0 49 -42 1 2 158 7 3 -40 50 30 158 0 35 -42 3 38 158 7 16 -40 48 0 1.89
157 37 20 -41 25 7 13 13 28.7 28 5 -26 157 33 55 -42 0 44 157 40 38 -40 50 11 157 33 39 -42 3 21 157 40 52 -40 47 41 1.89
157 10 39 -41 24 55 13 13 31.4 28 5 -26 157 6 59 -42 0 34 157 14 11 -40 49 59 157 6 43 -42 3 10 157 14 26 -40 47 29 1.89
156 43 57 -41 24 51 13 13 34.1 28 6 -26 156 40 2 -42 0 30 156 47 42 -40 49 53 156 39 45 -42 3 6 156 47 58 -40 47 23 1.89
156 17 13 -41 24 53 13 13 36.7 28 6 -26 156 13 3 -42 0 33 156 21 12 -40 49 54 156 12 45 -42 3 9 156 21 29 -40 47 24 1.89
155 50 27 -41 25 1 13 13 39.4 28 7 -26 155 46 2 -42 0 43 155 54 40 -40 50 1 155 45 43 -42 3 19 155 54 58 -40 47 31 1.89
155 23 38 -41 25 17 13 13 42.1 28 7 -26 155 18 59 -42 1 0 155 28 6 -40 50 16 155 18 38 -42 3 37 155 28 25 -40 47 46 1.89
154 56 48 -41 25 40 13 13 44.8 28 8 -26 154 51 53 -42 1 24 155 1 30 -40 50 37 154 51 31 -42 4 1 155 1 49 -40 48 6 1.89
154 29 54 -41 26 9 13 13 47.5 28 8 -26 154 24 44 -42 1 56 154 34 51 -40 51 4 154 24 21 -42 4 33 154 35 12 -40 48 34 1.89
154 2 58 -41 26 46 13 13 50.2 27 9 -26 153 57 33 -42 2 35 154 8 9 -40 51 39 153 57 8 -42 5 12 154 8 31 -40 49 8 1.89
153 35 58 -41 27 29 13 13 52.9 27 9 -26 153 30 17 -42 3 21 153 41 24 -40 52 20 153 29 52 -42 5 58 153 41 47 -40 49 50 1.89
153 8 55 -41 28 20 13 13 55.6 27 10 -25 153 2 59 -42 4 14 153 14 36 -40 53 9 153 2 32 -42 6 51 153 15 0 -40 50 38 1.89
152 41 49 -41 29 18 13 13 58.3 27 10 -25 152 35 36 -42 5 15 152 47 44 -40 54 4 152 35 8 -42 7 52 152 48 9 -40 51 33 1.89
152 14 38 -41 30 23 13 14 1.0 27 11 -25 152 8 9 -42 6 23 152 20 49 -40 55 6 152 7 41 -42 9 0 152 21 15 -40 52 34 1.89
151 47 23 -41 31 35 13 14 3.7 27 11 -25 151 40 38 -42 7 38 151 53 49 -40 56 15 151 40 8 -42 10 16 151 54 17 -40 53 43 1.89
151 20 4 -41 32 54 13 14 6.4 27 11 -25 151 13 2 -42 9 1 151 26 46 -40 57 31 151 12 31 -42 11 39 151 27 14 -40 54 59 1.89
150 52 39 -41 34 21 13 14 9.1 27 12 -25 150 45 21 -42 10 32 150 59 37 -40 58 54 150 44 49 -42 13 10 151 0 7 -40 56 22 1.89
150 25 10 -41 35 56 13 14 11.8 27 12 -25 150 17 35 -42 12 10 150 32 24 -41 0 25 150 17 1 -42 14 49 150 32 55 -40 57 53 1.89
149 57 36 -41 37 38 13 14 14.5 27 13 -25 149 49 43 -42 13 57 150 5 6 -41 2 3 149 49 8 -42 16 36 150 5 38 -40 59 30 1.89
149 29 55 -41 39 27 13 14 17.2 27 13 -25 149 21 45 -42 15 51 149 37 42 -41 3 48 149 21 8 -42 18 30 149 38 15 -41 1 15 1.90
149 2 9 -41 41 24 13 14 19.9 27 14 -25 148 53 40 -42 17 53 149 10 13 -41 5 41 148 53 3 -42 20 33 149 10 47 -41 3 8 1.90
148 34 16 -41 43 30 13 14 22.6 26 14 -24 148 25 29 -42 20 3 148 42 38 -41 7 41 148 24 50 -42 22 43 148 43 13 -41 5 8 1.90
148 6 17 -41 45 43 13 14 25.3 26 15 -24 147 57 11 -42 22 22 148 14 56 -41 9 49 147 56 31 -42 25 2 148 15 32 -41 7 16 1.90
147 38 10 -41 48 4 13 14 28.0 26 15 -24 147 28 46 -42 24 49 147 47 8 -41 12 5 147 28 4 -42 27 30 147 47 45 -41 9 31 1.90
147 9 56 -41 50 33 13 14 30.7 26 16 -24 147 0 12 -42 27 24 147 19 12 -41 14 29 146 59 29 -42 30 6 147 19 51 -41 11 54 1.90
146 41 35 -41 53 11 13 14 33.4 26 16 -24 146 31 31 -42 30 8 146 51 9 -41 17 1 146 30 46 -42 32 50 146 51 50 -41 14 26 1.90
146 13 5 -41 55 57 13 14 36.1 26 17 -24 146 2 41 -42 33 1 146 22 59 -41 19 41 146 1 54 -42 35 43 146 23 41 -41 17 5 1.90
145 44 27 -41 58 51 13 14 38.8 26 17 -24 145 33 41 -42 36 3 145 54 40 -41 22 29 145 32 53 -42 38 46 145 55 23 -41 19 53 1.90
145 15 40 -42 1 55 13 14 41.5 25 17 -24 145 4 33 -42 39 14 145 26 13 -41 25 25 145 3 43 -42 41 57 145 26 57 -41 22 49 1.90
144 46 43 -42 5 7 13 14 44.1 25 18 -23 144 35 14 -42 42 34 144 57 37 -41 28 30 144 34 23 -42 45 18 144 58 23 -41 25 54 1.90
144 17 36 -42 8 29 13 14 46.8 25 18 -23 144 5 44 -42 46 4 144 28 51 -41 31 44 144 4 52 -42 48 48 144 29 39 -41 29 7 1.90
143 48 19 -42 11 59 13 14 49.5 25 19 -23 143 36 4 -42 49 43 143 59 56 -41 35 7 143 35 10 -42 52 29 144 0 45 -41 32 29 1.90
143 18 51 -42 15 40 13 14 52.2 25 19 -23 143 6 12 -42 53 32 143 30 51 -41 38 39 143 5 16 -42 56 19 143 31 41 -41 36 0 1.90
142 49 12 -42 19 30 13 14 54.9 25 20 -23 142 36 8 -42 57 33 143 1 34 -41 42 20 142 35 10 -43 0 20 143 2 27 -41 39 41 1.90
142 19 21 -42 23 29 13 14 57.6 24 20 -23 142 5 51 -43 1 43 142 32 7 -41 46 11 142 4 51 -43 4 30 142 33 1 -41 43 31 1.90
141 49 17 -42 27 40 13 15 0.3 24 21 -22 141 35 21 -43 6 3 142 2 28 -41 50 11 141 34 19 -43 8 52 142 3 23 -41 47 31 1.90
141 18 59 -42 32 1 13 15 3.0 24 21 -22 141 4 37 -43 10 35 141 32 36 -41 54 21 141 3 32 -43 13 24 141 33 33 -41 51 40 1.90
140 48 29 -42 36 32 13 15 5.7 24 22 -22 140 33 37 -43 15 18 141 2 31 -41 58 42 140 32 31 -43 18 8 141 3 30 -41 56 0 1.90
140 17 43 -42 41 14 13 15 8.4 24 22 -22 140 2 23 -43 20 12 140 32 12 -42 3 14 140 1 14 -43 23 3 140 33 13 -42 0 31 1.90
139 46 42 -42 46 8 13 15 11.1 23 23 -21 139 30 52 -43 25 19 140 1 40 -42 7 56 139 29 41 -43 28 11 140 2 42 -42 5 12 1.90
139 15 26 -42 51 13 13 15 13.8 23 23 -21 138 59 4 -43 30 37 139 30 52 -42 12 48 138 57 50 -43 33 31 139 31 57 -42 10 4 1.90
138 43 52 -42 56 30 13 15 16.5 23 24 -21 138 26 57 -43 36 9 138 59 48 -42 17 53 138 25 41 -43 39 3 139 0 55 -42 15 7 1.90
138 12 1 -43 2 0 13 15 19.2 23 24 -21 137 54 32 -43 41 54 138 28 28 -42 23 8 137 53 13 -43 44 49 138 29 37 -42 20 22 1.90
137 39 51 -43 7 42 13 15 21.9 22 25 -21 137 21 46 -43 47 52 137 56 51 -42 28 36 137 20 25 -43 50 48 137 58 2 -42 25 49 1.90
137 7 21 -43 13 38 13 15 24.6 22 25 -20 136 48 39 -43 54 4 137 24 55 -42 34 17 136 47 15 -43 57 2 137 26 9 -42 31 29 1.91
Uncertainty in time = +/- 1 secs
Prediction of 2022 Dec 1.1
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