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Updated: 2022 Oct 16, 23:16 UT
Event Rank : 72
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2022 Dec 05 UT, the 41 km diameter asteroid (714) Ulula will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Orion for observers along a somewhat uncertain path across New South Wales, north-western Victoria and southern South Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by only 0.7 mag to 12.23 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.4 seconds. This event may be difficult to observe visually.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-518-011659 by 714 Ulula on 2022 Dec 5
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
155 18 44 -28 53 0 16 32 53.0 34 313 -22 155 33 0 -29 8 9 155 4 41 -28 37 57 155 56 34 -29 32 52 154 42 20 -28 13 45 1.38
155 0 27 -29 0 4 16 32 55.5 34 313 -22 155 14 40 -29 15 13 154 46 27 -28 45 0 155 38 7 -29 39 56 154 24 12 -28 20 47 1.38
154 42 14 -29 7 10 16 32 58.0 34 314 -23 154 56 23 -29 22 19 154 28 17 -28 52 6 155 19 45 -29 47 3 154 6 7 -28 27 53 1.38
154 24 4 -29 14 19 16 33 0.5 34 314 -23 154 38 10 -29 29 29 154 10 11 -28 59 14 155 1 26 -29 54 13 153 48 6 -28 35 1 1.38
154 5 58 -29 21 31 16 33 3.0 34 314 -23 154 20 1 -29 36 41 153 52 8 -29 6 26 154 43 12 -30 1 26 153 30 8 -28 42 12 1.38
153 47 56 -29 28 45 16 33 5.5 34 315 -23 154 1 55 -29 43 56 153 34 9 -29 13 40 154 25 1 -30 8 42 153 12 14 -28 49 25 1.38
153 29 57 -29 36 3 16 33 8.0 34 315 -23 153 43 53 -29 51 14 153 16 13 -29 20 57 154 6 53 -30 16 1 152 54 23 -28 56 42 1.38
153 12 2 -29 43 24 16 33 10.6 34 315 -23 153 25 55 -29 58 35 152 58 20 -29 28 17 153 48 49 -30 23 23 152 36 35 -29 4 1 1.38
152 54 9 -29 50 47 16 33 13.1 34 316 -23 153 7 59 -30 5 59 152 40 31 -29 35 40 153 30 49 -30 30 48 152 18 50 -29 11 23 1.38
152 36 20 -29 58 13 16 33 15.6 35 316 -23 152 50 7 -30 13 26 152 22 45 -29 43 6 153 12 52 -30 38 16 152 1 8 -29 18 48 1.38
152 18 34 -30 5 42 16 33 18.1 35 316 -23 152 32 18 -30 20 56 152 5 1 -29 50 34 152 54 58 -30 45 46 151 43 29 -29 26 15 1.38
152 0 51 -30 13 14 16 33 20.6 35 317 -23 152 14 32 -30 28 28 151 47 21 -29 58 6 152 37 7 -30 53 20 151 25 53 -29 33 46 1.38
151 43 10 -30 20 49 16 33 23.1 35 317 -23 151 56 49 -30 36 4 151 29 43 -30 5 40 152 19 20 -31 0 57 151 8 20 -29 41 19 1.38
151 25 33 -30 28 27 16 33 25.6 35 317 -24 151 39 9 -30 43 42 151 12 9 -30 13 17 152 1 35 -31 8 36 150 50 49 -29 48 55 1.38
151 7 58 -30 36 7 16 33 28.1 35 318 -24 151 21 31 -30 51 24 150 54 36 -30 20 57 151 43 53 -31 16 19 150 33 21 -29 56 33 1.38
150 50 26 -30 43 51 16 33 30.6 35 318 -24 151 3 57 -30 59 8 150 37 7 -30 28 39 151 26 14 -31 24 4 150 15 56 -30 4 15 1.38
150 32 57 -30 51 37 16 33 33.1 35 318 -24 150 46 25 -31 6 55 150 19 40 -30 36 25 151 8 38 -31 31 53 149 58 33 -30 11 59 1.38
150 15 30 -30 59 26 16 33 35.6 35 319 -24 150 28 55 -31 14 45 150 2 15 -30 44 13 150 51 4 -31 39 44 149 41 12 -30 19 46 1.38
149 58 5 -31 7 18 16 33 38.1 35 319 -24 150 11 28 -31 22 38 149 44 53 -30 52 4 150 33 33 -31 47 38 149 23 54 -30 27 36 1.38
149 40 43 -31 15 13 16 33 40.6 35 319 -24 149 54 3 -31 30 34 149 27 33 -30 59 58 150 16 4 -31 55 36 149 6 37 -30 35 28 1.38
149 23 23 -31 23 11 16 33 43.1 35 320 -24 149 36 41 -31 38 32 149 10 15 -31 7 55 149 58 38 -32 3 36 148 49 23 -30 43 23 1.38
149 6 5 -31 31 12 16 33 45.7 35 320 -24 149 19 21 -31 46 34 148 53 0 -31 15 55 149 41 14 -32 11 39 148 32 11 -30 51 22 1.38
148 48 49 -31 39 15 16 33 48.2 35 320 -24 149 2 3 -31 54 39 148 35 46 -31 23 57 149 23 52 -32 19 46 148 15 1 -30 59 23 1.38
148 31 35 -31 47 22 16 33 50.7 35 321 -24 148 44 47 -32 2 46 148 18 34 -31 32 3 149 6 32 -32 27 55 147 57 53 -31 7 26 1.38
148 14 23 -31 55 31 16 33 53.2 35 321 -24 148 27 32 -32 10 57 148 1 25 -31 40 11 148 49 14 -32 36 7 147 40 47 -31 15 33 1.38
147 57 13 -32 3 43 16 33 55.7 35 321 -24 148 10 20 -32 19 10 147 44 17 -31 48 22 148 31 59 -32 44 22 147 23 42 -31 23 42 1.39
147 40 5 -32 11 59 16 33 58.2 36 322 -24 147 53 10 -32 27 26 147 27 11 -31 56 36 148 14 45 -32 52 41 147 6 39 -31 31 55 1.39
147 22 59 -32 20 17 16 34 0.7 36 322 -24 147 36 2 -32 35 46 147 10 7 -32 4 53 147 57 33 -33 1 2 146 49 38 -31 40 10 1.39
147 5 54 -32 28 38 16 34 3.2 36 322 -24 147 18 55 -32 44 8 146 53 4 -32 13 13 147 40 23 -33 9 26 146 32 39 -31 48 28 1.39
146 48 51 -32 37 2 16 34 5.7 36 323 -24 147 1 50 -32 52 33 146 36 3 -32 21 36 147 23 14 -33 17 54 146 15 41 -31 56 49 1.39
146 31 49 -32 45 29 16 34 8.2 36 323 -24 146 44 46 -33 1 2 146 19 3 -32 30 2 147 6 7 -33 26 24 145 58 44 -32 5 12 1.39
146 14 49 -32 53 59 16 34 10.7 36 323 -24 146 27 44 -33 9 33 146 2 5 -32 38 31 146 49 2 -33 34 58 145 41 49 -32 13 39 1.39
145 57 50 -33 2 32 16 34 13.2 36 324 -24 146 10 43 -33 18 7 145 45 8 -32 47 2 146 31 58 -33 43 34 145 24 55 -32 22 9 1.39
145 40 53 -33 11 8 16 34 15.7 36 324 -24 145 53 44 -33 26 45 145 28 12 -32 55 37 146 14 56 -33 52 14 145 8 2 -32 30 41 1.39
145 23 56 -33 19 47 16 34 18.2 36 324 -24 145 36 46 -33 35 25 145 11 18 -33 4 14 145 57 55 -34 0 57 144 51 11 -32 39 16 1.39
145 7 1 -33 28 29 16 34 20.7 36 325 -25 145 19 49 -33 44 9 144 54 24 -33 12 55 145 40 55 -34 9 43 144 34 20 -32 47 55 1.39
144 50 7 -33 37 14 16 34 23.3 36 325 -25 145 2 53 -33 52 55 144 37 32 -33 21 39 145 23 56 -34 18 32 144 17 31 -32 56 36 1.39
144 33 14 -33 46 2 16 34 25.8 36 325 -25 144 45 58 -34 1 45 144 20 41 -33 30 25 145 6 58 -34 27 24 144 0 42 -33 5 20 1.39
144 16 22 -33 54 54 16 34 28.3 36 326 -25 144 29 5 -34 10 38 144 3 51 -33 39 15 144 50 2 -34 36 20 143 43 55 -33 14 8 1.39
143 59 31 -34 3 48 16 34 30.8 36 326 -25 144 12 12 -34 19 34 143 47 1 -33 48 8 144 33 6 -34 45 19 143 27 8 -33 22 58 1.39
143 42 41 -34 12 46 16 34 33.3 36 326 -25 143 55 20 -34 28 33 143 30 13 -33 57 4 144 16 12 -34 54 21 143 10 22 -33 31 51 1.39
143 25 52 -34 21 46 16 34 35.8 36 327 -25 143 38 29 -34 37 36 143 13 25 -34 6 3 143 59 18 -35 3 26 142 53 37 -33 40 48 1.39
143 9 3 -34 30 50 16 34 38.3 36 327 -25 143 21 39 -34 46 41 142 56 38 -34 15 5 143 42 25 -35 12 34 142 36 52 -33 49 47 1.39
142 52 15 -34 39 57 16 34 40.8 36 328 -25 143 4 49 -34 55 50 142 39 51 -34 24 10 143 25 33 -35 21 46 142 20 9 -33 58 50 1.39
142 35 28 -34 49 7 16 34 43.3 36 328 -25 142 48 0 -35 5 2 142 23 5 -34 33 19 143 8 41 -35 31 1 142 3 25 -34 7 55 1.39
142 18 41 -34 58 21 16 34 45.8 36 328 -25 142 31 11 -35 14 18 142 6 20 -34 42 30 142 51 50 -35 40 20 141 46 42 -34 17 4 1.39
142 1 54 -35 7 38 16 34 48.3 36 329 -25 142 14 23 -35 23 36 141 49 35 -34 51 45 142 34 59 -35 49 42 141 30 0 -34 26 16 1.39
141 45 8 -35 16 58 16 34 50.8 36 329 -25 141 57 36 -35 32 58 141 32 50 -35 1 3 142 18 9 -35 59 7 141 13 17 -34 35 31 1.39
141 28 22 -35 26 21 16 34 53.3 36 329 -25 141 40 48 -35 42 24 141 16 6 -35 10 25 142 1 19 -36 8 35 140 56 35 -34 44 49 1.39
141 11 36 -35 35 48 16 34 55.8 36 330 -25 141 24 1 -35 51 52 140 59 22 -35 19 49 141 44 30 -36 18 8 140 39 54 -34 54 11 1.39
140 54 51 -35 45 18 16 34 58.3 36 330 -25 141 7 14 -36 1 24 140 42 38 -35 29 18 141 27 41 -36 27 43 140 23 12 -35 3 36 1.39
140 38 5 -35 54 51 16 35 0.9 36 330 -25 140 50 27 -36 11 0 140 25 54 -35 38 49 141 10 51 -36 37 22 140 6 30 -35 13 4 1.39
140 21 20 -36 4 28 16 35 3.4 36 331 -25 140 33 41 -36 20 39 140 9 10 -35 48 24 140 54 2 -36 47 5 139 49 49 -35 22 35 1.39
140 4 35 -36 14 8 16 35 5.9 36 331 -24 140 16 54 -36 30 22 139 52 26 -35 58 2 140 37 13 -36 56 51 139 33 7 -35 32 10 1.39
139 47 49 -36 23 52 16 35 8.4 35 331 -24 140 0 7 -36 40 8 139 35 42 -36 7 43 140 20 24 -37 6 41 139 16 25 -35 41 48 1.39
139 31 4 -36 33 40 16 35 10.9 35 332 -24 139 43 20 -36 49 57 139 18 57 -36 17 28 140 3 35 -37 16 35 138 59 43 -35 51 29 1.39
139 14 18 -36 43 31 16 35 13.4 35 332 -24 139 26 33 -36 59 51 139 2 13 -36 27 17 139 46 45 -37 26 32 138 43 1 -36 1 14 1.39
138 57 31 -36 53 25 16 35 15.9 35 332 -24 139 9 45 -37 9 48 138 45 28 -36 37 9 139 29 56 -37 36 33 138 26 18 -36 11 3 1.39
138 40 45 -37 3 23 16 35 18.4 35 333 -24 138 52 57 -37 19 48 138 28 43 -36 47 5 139 13 5 -37 46 38 138 9 35 -36 20 55 1.39
138 23 58 -37 13 25 16 35 20.9 35 333 -24 138 36 9 -37 29 52 138 11 57 -36 57 4 138 56 15 -37 56 46 137 52 51 -36 30 50 1.39
138 7 10 -37 23 30 16 35 23.4 35 333 -24 138 19 19 -37 40 1 137 55 11 -37 7 7 138 39 24 -38 6 58 137 36 7 -36 40 49 1.39
137 50 22 -37 33 40 16 35 25.9 35 334 -24 138 2 30 -37 50 12 137 38 24 -37 17 14 138 22 32 -38 17 15 137 19 22 -36 50 52 1.40
137 33 33 -37 43 53 16 35 28.4 35 334 -24 137 45 40 -38 0 28 137 21 36 -37 27 24 138 5 40 -38 27 35 137 2 36 -37 0 58 1.40
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