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Updated: 2022 OCT 02, 00:10 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2022 Nov 25 UT, the 108.4 km diameter asteroid (505) Cava will occult a 11.9 mag star in the constellation Cancer for observers along a fairly broad path along the western coast of New Zealand, crossing the North Island of near Auckland and the far south-west corner of the South Island.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.90 mag to 12.19 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 21.610 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 559-044598 by 505 Cava on 2022 Nov 25
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
164 11 39 -49 0 0 15 23 16.4 17 22 -12 165 8 28 163 14 46 165 46 59 162 36 7 0.45
165 3 27 -48 0 0 15 23 25.1 18 21 -13 165 59 4 164 7 47 166 36 47 163 29 58 0.45
165 53 59 -47 0 0 15 23 34.3 19 20 -13 166 48 29 164 59 27 167 25 28 164 22 25 0.45
166 43 22 -46 0 0 15 23 44.0 20 20 -14 167 36 49 165 49 54 168 13 5 165 13 35 0.45
167 31 42 -45 0 0 15 23 54.3 21 19 -14 168 24 10 166 39 13 168 59 46 166 3 35 0.46
168 19 3 -44 0 0 15 24 5.2 22 18 -14 169 10 36 167 27 30 169 45 35 166 52 31 0.46
169 5 31 -43 0 0 15 24 16.5 24 18 -15 169 56 12 168 14 51 170 30 37 167 40 28 0.46
169 51 11 -42 0 0 15 24 28.5 25 17 -15 170 41 3 169 1 20 171 14 55 168 27 31 0.46
170 36 6 -41 0 0 15 24 40.9 26 16 -16 171 25 12 169 47 2 171 58 33 169 13 44 0.46
171 20 21 -40 0 0 15 24 53.9 27 16 -16 172 8 44 170 32 0 172 41 36 169 59 12 0.46
172 3 59 -39 0 0 15 25 7.4 28 15 -16 172 51 42 171 16 19 173 24 7 170 43 59 0.46
172 47 4 -38 0 0 15 25 21.4 29 14 -16 173 34 9 172 0 2 174 6 9 171 28 9 0.46
173 29 39 -37 0 0 15 25 36.0 30 14 -17 174 16 9 172 43 13 174 47 45 172 11 44 0.46
174 11 48 -36 0 0 15 25 51.1 31 13 -17 174 57 44 173 25 55 175 28 58 172 54 49 0.46
174 53 32 -35 0 0 15 26 6.7 33 12 -17 175 38 58 174 8 12 176 9 51 173 37 27 0.46
175 34 56 -34 0 0 15 26 22.8 34 11 -17 176 19 53 174 50 5 176 50 26 174 19 41 0.46
176 16 2 -33 0 0 15 26 39.4 35 11 -17 177 0 32 175 31 38 177 30 47 175 1 32 0.46
176 56 52 -32 0 0 15 26 56.5 36 10 -18 177 40 57 176 12 53 178 10 55 175 43 6 0.46
Uncertainty in time = +/- 9 secs
Prediction of 2022 Oct 2.0
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[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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