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Updated: 2022 Aug 30, 01:58 UT
Event Rank : 85
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2022 Oct 27 UT, the 65 km diameter asteroid (1469) Linzia will occult a 12.1 mag star in the constellation Orion for observers along a slightly uncertain path that may graze the east-Australian coast.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.9 mag to 14.86 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.6 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 489-011491 by 1469 Linzia on 2022 Oct 27
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
155 47 25 -26 1 3 18 26 53.8 48 319 -6 156 9 51 -26 11 10 155 25 9 -25 51 0 156 36 56 -26 23 20 154 58 41 -25 39 0 0.75
155 41 16 -26 22 46 18 26 58.7 47 320 -6 156 3 47 -26 32 55 155 18 54 -26 12 40 156 30 58 -26 45 7 154 52 20 -26 0 37 0.75
155 35 10 -26 44 34 18 27 3.6 47 320 -6 155 57 46 -26 54 45 155 12 43 -26 34 25 156 25 4 -27 7 1 154 46 3 -26 22 20 0.75
155 29 8 -27 6 28 18 27 8.5 47 320 -6 155 51 50 -27 16 42 155 6 35 -26 56 17 156 19 15 -27 29 1 154 39 49 -26 44 9 0.75
155 23 10 -27 28 28 18 27 13.4 47 321 -6 155 45 58 -27 38 45 155 0 32 -27 18 15 156 13 30 -27 51 6 154 33 39 -27 6 4 0.75
155 17 16 -27 50 35 18 27 18.3 46 321 -6 155 40 10 -28 0 54 154 54 32 -27 40 19 156 7 49 -28 13 18 154 27 32 -27 28 5 0.75
155 11 26 -28 12 47 18 27 23.2 46 321 -6 155 34 26 -28 23 9 154 48 36 -28 2 29 156 2 12 -28 35 37 154 21 30 -27 50 12 0.75
155 5 40 -28 35 6 18 27 28.1 46 322 -6 155 28 46 -28 45 31 154 42 44 -28 24 45 155 56 40 -28 58 2 154 15 31 -28 12 25 0.75
154 59 58 -28 57 32 18 27 33.0 46 322 -6 155 23 11 -29 7 59 154 36 56 -28 47 8 155 51 13 -29 20 34 154 9 36 -28 34 45 0.75
154 54 21 -29 20 5 18 27 37.9 45 322 -6 155 17 40 -29 30 35 154 31 13 -29 9 38 155 45 50 -29 43 13 154 3 44 -28 57 11 0.75
154 48 48 -29 42 44 18 27 42.8 45 323 -6 155 12 14 -29 53 17 154 25 33 -29 32 15 155 40 33 -30 5 59 153 57 57 -29 19 44 0.75
154 43 19 -30 5 31 18 27 47.7 45 323 -6 155 6 52 -30 16 7 154 19 58 -29 54 58 155 35 20 -30 28 53 153 52 14 -29 42 24 0.75
154 37 55 -30 28 25 18 27 52.6 45 323 -5 155 1 36 -30 39 4 154 14 27 -30 17 49 155 30 12 -30 51 54 153 46 35 -30 5 12 0.75
154 32 36 -30 51 26 18 27 57.5 44 324 -5 154 56 24 -31 2 9 154 9 0 -30 40 47 155 25 9 -31 15 2 153 41 0 -30 28 6 0.76
154 27 22 -31 14 35 18 28 2.4 44 324 -5 154 51 17 -31 25 21 154 3 38 -31 3 53 155 20 11 -31 38 18 153 35 30 -30 51 8 0.76
154 22 12 -31 37 52 18 28 7.3 44 324 -5 154 46 15 -31 48 41 153 58 21 -31 27 6 155 15 19 -32 1 43 153 30 3 -31 14 18 0.76
154 17 7 -32 1 17 18 28 12.2 44 324 -5 154 41 18 -32 12 9 153 53 9 -31 50 28 155 10 32 -32 25 15 153 24 42 -31 37 35 0.76
154 12 7 -32 24 50 18 28 17.1 43 325 -5 154 36 27 -32 35 46 153 48 1 -32 13 57 155 5 51 -32 48 56 153 19 25 -32 1 0 0.76
154 7 13 -32 48 31 18 28 22.0 43 325 -5 154 31 41 -32 59 31 153 42 58 -32 37 35 155 1 16 -33 12 46 153 14 12 -32 24 34 0.76
154 2 24 -33 12 21 18 28 26.9 43 325 -5 154 27 1 -33 23 25 153 38 0 -33 1 21 154 56 46 -33 36 44 153 9 5 -32 48 16 0.76
153 57 40 -33 36 20 18 28 31.8 42 326 -5 154 22 26 -33 47 28 153 33 8 -33 25 16 154 52 23 -34 0 52 153 4 2 -33 12 6 0.76
153 53 3 -34 0 28 18 28 36.7 42 326 -5 154 17 58 -34 11 40 153 28 21 -33 49 21 154 48 6 -34 25 9 152 59 5 -33 36 6 0.76
153 48 30 -34 24 46 18 28 41.6 42 326 -5 154 13 35 -34 36 1 153 23 40 -34 13 34 154 43 56 -34 49 36 152 54 12 -34 0 14 0.76
153 44 4 -34 49 13 18 28 46.5 41 326 -5 154 9 19 -35 0 33 153 19 4 -34 37 57 154 39 52 -35 14 12 152 49 25 -34 24 32 0.76
153 39 45 -35 13 50 18 28 51.4 41 327 -5 154 5 10 -35 25 14 153 14 34 -35 2 29 154 35 55 -35 38 59 152 44 44 -34 49 0 0.76
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