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Updated: 2022 Aug 30, 01:53 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2022 Oct 16 UT, the 108 km diameter asteroid (505) Cava will occult a 11.1 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across northern Tasmania, passing over Launceston.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.0 mag to 12.86 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.0 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 1368-01465-1 by 505 Cava on 2022 Oct 16
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
137 37 9 -43 23 49 18 28 49.6 20 32 -16 138 15 54 -42 13 58 136 53 14 -44 37 29 138 28 44 -41 49 43 136 35 58 -45 4 59 1.52
138 7 23 -43 14 26 18 28 51.2 21 32 -15 138 44 48 -42 5 13 137 25 5 -44 27 18 138 57 12 -41 41 10 137 8 30 -44 54 30 1.52
138 37 8 -43 5 18 18 28 52.8 21 32 -15 139 13 17 -41 56 42 137 56 22 -44 17 26 139 25 17 -41 32 50 137 40 24 -44 44 19 1.53
139 6 26 -42 56 24 18 28 54.5 21 31 -15 139 41 22 -41 48 23 138 27 7 -44 7 50 139 53 0 -41 24 42 138 11 45 -44 34 26 1.53
139 35 18 -42 47 44 18 28 56.1 21 31 -15 140 9 6 -41 40 16 138 57 21 -43 58 30 140 20 21 -41 16 46 138 42 33 -44 24 50 1.53
140 3 46 -42 39 16 18 28 57.7 22 30 -14 140 36 28 -41 32 20 139 27 7 -43 49 25 140 47 23 -41 9 0 139 12 50 -44 15 29 1.53
140 31 51 -42 31 2 18 28 59.3 22 30 -14 141 3 30 -41 24 35 139 56 25 -43 40 35 141 14 5 -41 1 25 139 42 38 -44 6 24 1.53
140 59 33 -42 22 59 18 29 0.9 22 29 -14 141 30 13 -41 17 1 140 25 18 -43 31 58 141 40 28 -40 54 0 140 12 0 -43 57 33 1.53
141 26 55 -42 15 8 18 29 2.5 23 29 -14 141 56 38 -41 9 37 140 53 47 -43 23 34 142 6 34 -40 46 45 140 40 56 -43 48 56 1.53
141 53 56 -42 7 27 18 29 4.1 23 29 -13 142 22 45 -41 2 23 141 21 53 -43 15 23 142 32 23 -40 39 40 141 9 27 -43 40 32 1.53
142 20 39 -41 59 58 18 29 5.7 23 28 -13 142 48 35 -40 55 19 141 49 37 -43 7 24 142 57 56 -40 32 43 141 37 36 -43 32 21 1.53
142 47 4 -41 52 38 18 29 7.3 23 28 -13 143 14 9 -40 48 23 142 17 0 -42 59 36 143 23 14 -40 25 56 142 5 22 -43 24 22 1.53
143 13 11 -41 45 29 18 29 8.9 24 27 -13 143 39 27 -40 41 37 142 44 3 -42 51 59 143 48 17 -40 19 17 142 32 48 -43 16 34 1.53
143 39 2 -41 38 29 18 29 10.5 24 27 -12 144 4 31 -40 34 59 143 10 48 -42 44 33 144 13 5 -40 12 47 142 59 54 -43 8 58 1.53
144 4 36 -41 31 38 18 29 12.1 24 27 -12 144 29 21 -40 28 30 143 37 14 -42 37 18 144 37 40 -40 6 24 143 26 41 -43 1 33 1.53
144 29 56 -41 24 56 18 29 13.7 24 26 -12 144 53 57 -40 22 9 144 3 24 -42 30 12 145 2 2 -40 0 10 143 53 11 -42 54 17 1.53
144 55 1 -41 18 23 18 29 15.3 25 26 -12 145 18 20 -40 15 55 144 29 17 -42 23 16 145 26 11 -39 54 3 144 19 22 -42 47 12 1.54
145 19 52 -41 11 58 18 29 16.9 25 25 -11 145 42 30 -40 9 50 144 54 54 -42 16 29 145 50 8 -39 48 3 144 45 18 -42 40 16 1.54
145 44 29 -41 5 41 18 29 18.5 25 25 -11 146 6 29 -40 3 51 145 20 16 -42 9 51 146 13 53 -39 42 11 145 10 58 -42 33 30 1.54
146 8 54 -40 59 33 18 29 20.1 25 25 -11 146 30 15 -39 58 1 145 45 24 -42 3 22 146 37 28 -39 36 26 145 36 22 -42 26 53 1.54
146 33 6 -40 53 32 18 29 21.8 26 24 -11 146 53 51 -39 52 17 146 10 17 -41 57 1 147 0 51 -39 30 48 146 1 32 -42 20 25 1.54
146 57 6 -40 47 38 18 29 23.4 26 24 -10 147 17 16 -39 46 40 146 34 58 -41 50 49 147 24 4 -39 25 16 146 26 28 -42 14 5 1.54
147 20 55 -40 41 52 18 29 25.0 26 24 -10 147 40 30 -39 41 10 146 59 26 -41 44 45 147 47 6 -39 19 51 146 51 11 -42 7 53 1.54
147 44 33 -40 36 13 18 29 26.6 26 23 -10 148 3 34 -39 35 46 147 23 41 -41 38 48 148 9 59 -39 14 33 147 15 42 -42 1 50 1.54
148 8 0 -40 30 41 18 29 28.2 26 23 -10 148 26 28 -39 30 29 147 47 45 -41 32 59 148 32 43 -39 9 21 147 40 0 -41 55 54 1.54
148 31 16 -40 25 16 18 29 29.8 27 22 -9 148 49 13 -39 25 18 148 11 37 -41 27 17 148 55 18 -39 4 14 148 4 6 -41 50 6 1.54
148 54 23 -40 19 57 18 29 31.4 27 22 -9 149 11 49 -39 20 13 148 35 18 -41 21 43 149 17 43 -38 59 14 148 28 0 -41 44 25 1.54
149 17 21 -40 14 45 18 29 33.0 27 22 -9 149 34 17 -39 15 14 148 58 49 -41 16 15 149 40 1 -38 54 20 148 51 44 -41 38 51 1.54
149 40 9 -40 9 39 18 29 34.6 27 21 -9 149 56 36 -39 10 21 149 22 10 -41 10 55 150 2 10 -38 49 31 149 15 17 -41 33 25 1.54
150 2 48 -40 4 39 18 29 36.2 27 21 -8 150 18 46 -39 5 34 149 45 21 -41 5 40 150 24 11 -38 44 48 149 38 41 -41 28 5 1.54
150 25 18 -39 59 45 18 29 37.8 28 21 -8 150 40 49 -39 0 53 150 8 22 -41 0 33 150 46 4 -38 40 11 150 1 54 -41 22 52 1.54
150 47 41 -39 54 58 18 29 39.4 28 20 -8 151 2 44 -38 56 17 150 31 14 -40 55 32 151 7 51 -38 35 39 150 24 58 -41 17 46 1.54
151 9 55 -39 50 16 18 29 41.0 28 20 -8 151 24 32 -38 51 47 150 53 58 -40 50 37 151 29 30 -38 31 13 150 47 53 -41 12 46 1.54
151 32 1 -39 45 40 18 29 42.6 28 19 -7 151 46 13 -38 47 22 151 16 33 -40 45 48 151 51 2 -38 26 51 151 10 39 -41 7 53 1.54
151 54 0 -39 41 9 18 29 44.2 28 19 -7 152 7 47 -38 43 2 151 39 0 -40 41 6 152 12 27 -38 22 35 151 33 17 -41 3 5 1.54
152 15 52 -39 36 44 18 29 45.8 28 19 -7 152 29 14 -38 38 47 152 1 19 -40 36 29 152 33 46 -38 18 24 151 55 46 -40 58 24 1.54
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