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Updated: 2022 AUG 20, 02:29 UT
Event Rank : 90
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2022 Sep 21 UT, the 58.9 km diameter asteroid (480) Hansa will occult a 11.0 mag star in the constellation Delphinus for observers along a path just grazing the coast of the North Island of New Zealand at Hicks Bay, in late evening twilight.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.07 mag to 12.94 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.790 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 503-131374 by 480 Hansa on 2022 Sep 21
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
179 29 49 -35 1 42 7 19 18.0 42 20 -18 179 49 58 -35 1 1 179 9 38 -35 2 24 -179 49 11 -35 0 20 178 48 39 -35 3 10 -0.17
179 21 59 -35 33 57 7 19 22.7 42 20 -17 179 42 17 -35 33 15 179 1 39 -35 34 41 -179 56 43 -35 32 33 178 40 31 -35 35 28 -0.17
179 13 55 -36 6 32 7 19 27.5 41 20 -17 179 34 23 -36 5 49 178 53 25 -36 7 16 179 55 32 -36 5 6 178 32 7 -36 8 4 -0.17
179 5 36 -36 39 27 7 19 32.2 41 20 -17 179 26 13 -36 38 43 178 44 56 -36 40 12 179 47 32 -36 37 59 178 23 28 -36 41 1 -0.17
178 57 1 -37 12 42 7 19 37.0 40 20 -17 179 17 48 -37 11 57 178 36 11 -37 13 29 179 39 18 -37 11 12 178 14 32 -37 14 20 -0.17
178 48 9 -37 46 20 7 19 41.7 40 20 -16 179 9 7 -37 45 34 178 27 8 -37 47 8 179 30 47 -37 44 48 178 5 18 -37 48 0 -0.17
178 38 59 -38 20 21 7 19 46.5 39 20 -16 179 0 8 -38 19 33 178 17 47 -38 21 10 179 21 59 -38 18 46 177 55 45 -38 22 3 -0.17
178 29 30 -38 54 45 7 19 51.3 38 20 -16 178 50 50 -38 53 57 178 8 6 -38 55 36 179 12 54 -38 53 8 177 45 53 -38 56 30 -0.17
178 19 41 -39 29 35 7 19 56.0 38 20 -16 178 41 13 -39 28 45 177 58 5 -39 30 27 179 3 29 -39 27 55 177 35 39 -39 31 22 -0.17
178 9 30 -40 4 50 7 20 0.8 37 20 -16 178 31 15 -40 3 59 177 47 42 -40 5 44 178 53 44 -40 3 8 177 25 2 -40 6 41 -0.17
177 58 56 -40 40 33 7 20 5.5 37 20 -15 178 20 54 -40 39 40 177 36 55 -40 41 28 178 43 37 -40 38 48 177 14 1 -40 42 27 -0.17
177 47 58 -41 16 45 7 20 10.3 36 20 -15 178 10 10 -41 15 50 177 25 42 -41 17 42 178 33 6 -41 14 56 177 2 34 -41 18 42 -0.17
177 36 33 -41 53 27 7 20 15.0 35 20 -15 177 58 59 -41 52 31 177 14 3 -41 54 25 178 22 11 -41 51 35 176 50 39 -41 55 28 -0.17
177 24 40 -42 30 41 7 20 19.8 35 20 -15 177 47 22 -42 29 43 177 1 54 -42 31 41 178 10 49 -42 28 45 176 38 14 -42 32 46 -0.17
177 12 17 -43 8 28 7 20 24.5 34 20 -14 177 35 14 -43 7 28 176 49 15 -43 9 30 177 58 58 -43 6 28 176 25 17 -43 10 37 -0.17
176 59 20 -43 46 51 7 20 29.3 34 20 -14 177 22 35 -43 45 49 176 36 1 -43 47 55 177 46 37 -43 44 47 176 11 46 -43 49 4 -0.17
176 45 49 -44 25 51 7 20 34.0 33 21 -14 177 9 21 -44 24 47 176 22 11 -44 26 58 177 33 41 -44 23 43 175 57 37 -44 28 9 -0.17
176 31 38 -45 5 31 7 20 38.8 32 21 -13 176 55 30 -45 4 24 176 7 41 -45 6 40 177 20 10 -45 3 18 175 42 47 -45 7 55 -0.17
176 16 46 -45 45 53 7 20 43.5 31 21 -13 176 40 58 -45 44 44 175 52 29 -45 47 5 177 5 58 -45 43 35 175 27 12 -45 48 23 -0.17
176 1 8 -46 27 1 7 20 48.3 31 21 -13 176 25 42 -46 25 49 175 36 29 -46 28 16 176 51 4 -46 24 37 175 10 49 -46 29 36 -0.17
175 27 16 -47 51 43 7 20 57.8 29 21 -12 175 52 37 -47 50 25 175 1 48 -47 53 5 176 18 48 -47 49 6 174 35 18 -47 54 32 -0.18
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2022 Aug 20.1
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