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Updated: 2022 AUG 20, 02:30 UT
Event Rank : 81
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2022 Sep 21 UT, the 51.6 km diameter asteroid (1585) Union will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Capricornus for observers along a fairly narrow path across Australia from near Darwin across north-western Northern Territory and eastern Western Australia to near Esperance.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.88 mag to 14.63 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.030 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 6344-01235-1 by 1585 Union on 2022 Sep 21
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
135 22 59 0 0 0 11 32 6.6 74 163 -40 135 8 7 135 37 51 134 48 24 135 57 31 -0.17
135 3 4 - 1 0 0 11 32 17.5 74 161 -40 134 48 10 135 17 56 134 28 26 135 37 37 -0.17
134 42 55 - 2 0 0 11 32 28.5 75 158 -40 134 28 0 134 57 49 134 8 15 135 17 32 -0.17
134 22 33 - 3 0 0 11 32 39.5 76 156 -39 134 7 37 134 37 28 133 47 49 134 57 13 -0.17
134 1 57 - 4 0 0 11 32 50.6 77 153 -39 133 46 59 134 16 54 133 27 8 134 36 41 -0.17
133 41 6 - 5 0 0 11 33 1.7 78 150 -39 133 26 5 133 56 5 133 6 12 134 15 55 -0.17
133 19 59 - 6 0 0 11 33 12.9 78 146 -38 133 4 56 133 35 1 132 45 0 133 54 54 -0.17
132 58 36 - 7 0 0 11 33 24.1 79 142 -38 132 43 30 133 13 40 132 23 30 133 33 37 -0.17
132 36 55 - 8 0 0 11 33 35.3 79 138 -37 132 21 47 132 52 3 132 1 42 133 12 4 -0.17
132 14 57 - 9 0 0 11 33 46.6 80 133 -37 131 59 45 132 30 8 131 39 36 132 50 13 -0.16
131 52 39 -10 0 0 11 33 57.9 80 127 -37 131 37 24 132 7 54 131 17 9 132 28 5 -0.16
131 30 2 -11 0 0 11 34 9.2 81 121 -36 131 14 42 131 45 21 130 54 22 132 5 37 -0.16
131 7 4 -12 0 0 11 34 20.6 81 115 -36 130 51 39 131 22 28 130 31 14 131 42 49 -0.16
130 43 44 -13 0 0 11 34 32.0 81 108 -35 130 28 14 130 59 12 130 7 42 131 19 40 -0.16
130 20 1 -14 0 0 11 34 43.3 81 102 -35 130 4 26 130 35 35 129 43 47 130 56 9 -0.16
129 55 54 -15 0 0 11 34 54.8 81 96 -34 129 40 13 130 11 33 129 19 26 130 32 15 -0.16
129 31 22 -16 0 0 11 35 6.2 80 90 -34 129 15 35 129 47 7 128 54 40 130 7 57 -0.16
129 6 23 -17 0 0 11 35 17.6 80 84 -33 128 50 30 129 22 15 128 29 26 129 43 13 -0.16
128 40 56 -18 0 0 11 35 29.0 79 79 -33 128 24 56 128 56 55 128 3 43 129 18 2 -0.16
128 15 0 -19 0 0 11 35 40.4 79 75 -32 127 58 52 128 31 6 127 37 30 128 52 23 -0.16
127 48 33 -20 0 0 11 35 51.9 78 71 -31 127 32 18 128 4 47 127 10 44 128 26 14 -0.16
127 21 33 -21 0 0 11 36 3.3 77 67 -31 127 5 10 127 37 55 126 43 25 127 59 34 -0.16
126 54 0 -22 0 0 11 36 14.7 77 64 -30 126 37 27 127 10 31 126 15 31 127 32 21 -0.16
126 25 50 -23 0 0 11 36 26.1 76 62 -30 126 9 8 126 42 31 125 47 0 127 4 33 -0.16
125 57 3 -24 0 0 11 36 37.5 75 59 -29 125 40 11 126 13 53 125 17 49 126 36 8 -0.16
125 27 35 -25 0 0 11 36 48.9 74 57 -28 125 10 33 125 44 36 124 47 57 126 7 5 -0.15
124 57 26 -26 0 0 11 37 0.2 73 55 -28 124 40 12 125 14 37 124 17 21 125 37 21 -0.15
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
123 0 0 -29 40 14 11 37 41.7 70 50 -25 -29 8 1 -30 12 22 -28 25 15 -30 54 47 -0.15
122 0 0 -31 24 55 11 38 1.3 68 49 -24 -30 53 30 -31 56 14 -30 11 48 -32 37 37 -0.15
121 0 0 -33 4 33 11 38 19.8 66 47 -23 -32 33 56 -33 35 7 -31 53 16 -34 15 29 -0.15
120 0 0 -34 39 24 11 38 37.3 65 47 -22 -34 9 31 -35 9 13 -33 29 50 -35 48 37 -0.15
119 0 0 -36 9 39 11 38 53.9 63 46 -21 -35 40 28 -36 38 45 -35 1 45 -37 17 13 -0.15
118 0 0 -37 35 31 11 39 9.6 62 46 -20 -37 7 2 -38 3 57 -36 29 13 -38 41 31 -0.15
117 0 0 -38 57 13 11 39 24.4 60 45 -19 -38 29 23 -39 25 0 -37 52 28 -40 1 42 -0.15
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2022 Aug 20.1
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