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Updated: 2022 Jun 29, 05:41 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2022 Aug 21 UT, the 102 km diameter asteroid (780) Armenia will occult a 11.5 mag star in the constellation Eridanus for observers along a path across West Australia, South Australia and Victoria, passing over Geraldton, Adelaide, Horsham, Ballarat, Melbourne and Wonthaggi.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.9 mag to 14.32 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.7 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 443-004437 by 780 Armenia on 2022 Aug 21
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
107 28 58 -27 11 14 16 25 29.9 3 90 -73 112 4 33 -26 50 30 ... .. .. .. .. .. 113 43 42 -26 37 36 ... .. .. .. .. .. ....
109 55 45 -27 23 22 16 25 32.0 5 89 -74 113 24 31 -27 0 53 ... .. .. .. .. .. 114 51 55 -26 47 40 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.10
111 37 48 -27 34 21 16 25 34.0 7 88 -74 114 34 29 -27 11 2 106 6 32 -27 53 52 115 53 39 -26 57 34 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.23
113 0 58 -27 44 53 16 25 36.0 8 87 -74 115 37 29 -27 21 0 109 12 2 -28 7 2 116 50 28 -27 7 22 ... .. .. .. .. .. 1.28
114 13 0 -27 55 8 16 25 38.0 9 87 -74 116 35 15 -27 30 51 111 3 30 -28 18 19 117 43 23 -27 17 4 108 23 59 -28 29 56 1.30
115 17 27 -28 5 12 16 25 40.0 10 86 -74 117 28 56 -27 40 36 112 31 24 -28 29 2 118 33 8 -27 26 42 110 28 31 -28 41 35 1.32
116 16 19 -28 15 8 16 25 42.0 11 86 -74 118 19 18 -27 50 16 113 46 22 -28 39 25 119 20 12 -27 36 16 112 2 14 -28 52 28 1.33
117 10 52 -28 24 58 16 25 44.0 12 85 -73 119 6 55 -27 59 53 114 52 51 -28 49 35 120 5 2 -27 45 47 113 20 40 -29 2 59 1.34
118 1 55 -28 34 43 16 25 46.0 12 85 -73 119 52 10 -28 9 27 115 53 14 -28 59 37 120 47 53 -27 55 16 114 29 29 -29 13 15 1.34
118 50 5 -28 44 24 16 25 48.0 13 84 -73 120 35 24 -28 18 58 116 48 56 -29 9 32 121 29 2 -28 4 43 115 31 35 -29 23 21 1.35
119 35 49 -28 54 2 16 25 50.1 14 84 -72 121 16 53 -28 28 27 117 40 55 -29 19 22 122 8 39 -28 14 7 116 28 37 -29 33 20 1.35
120 19 27 -29 3 37 16 25 52.1 14 84 -72 121 56 48 -28 37 54 118 29 52 -29 29 8 122 46 55 -28 23 31 117 21 40 -29 43 14 1.35
121 1 16 -29 13 10 16 25 54.1 15 83 -72 122 35 19 -28 47 20 119 16 14 -29 38 51 123 23 58 -28 32 53 118 11 28 -29 53 4 1.36
121 41 29 -29 22 42 16 25 56.1 16 83 -71 123 12 36 -28 56 44 120 0 25 -29 48 31 123 59 54 -28 42 14 118 58 34 -30 2 49 1.36
122 20 16 -29 32 11 16 25 58.1 16 82 -71 123 48 45 -29 6 7 120 42 43 -29 58 9 124 34 50 -28 51 34 119 43 22 -30 12 32 1.36
122 57 47 -29 41 40 16 26 0.1 17 82 -71 124 23 52 -29 15 29 121 23 20 -30 7 44 125 8 51 -29 0 53 120 26 11 -30 22 13 1.36
123 34 8 -29 51 7 16 26 2.1 17 82 -70 124 58 3 -29 24 51 122 2 29 -30 17 18 125 42 1 -29 10 11 121 7 17 -30 31 51 1.36
124 9 26 -30 0 33 16 26 4.1 18 81 -70 125 31 22 -29 34 11 122 40 18 -30 26 51 126 14 24 -29 19 29 121 46 50 -30 41 28 1.36
124 43 47 -30 9 58 16 26 6.2 18 81 -69 126 3 53 -29 43 31 123 16 57 -30 36 23 126 46 3 -29 28 46 122 25 2 -30 51 4 1.37
125 17 15 -30 19 23 16 26 8.2 19 81 -69 126 35 40 -29 52 51 123 52 30 -30 45 53 127 17 2 -29 38 3 123 2 0 -31 0 38 1.37
125 49 55 -30 28 47 16 26 10.2 19 80 -69 127 6 46 -30 2 9 124 27 5 -30 55 23 127 47 22 -29 47 19 123 37 51 -31 10 11 1.37
126 21 49 -30 38 10 16 26 12.2 19 80 -68 127 37 14 -30 11 28 125 0 45 -31 4 52 128 17 8 -29 56 35 124 12 41 -31 19 43 1.37
126 53 2 -30 47 33 16 26 14.2 20 79 -68 128 7 5 -30 20 47 125 33 36 -31 14 20 128 46 20 -30 5 51 124 46 36 -31 29 15 1.37
127 23 35 -30 56 56 16 26 16.2 20 79 -67 128 36 23 -30 30 5 126 5 40 -31 23 48 129 15 1 -30 15 7 125 19 40 -31 38 46 1.37
127 53 33 -31 6 19 16 26 18.2 21 79 -67 129 5 10 -30 39 23 126 37 2 -31 33 15 129 43 13 -30 24 23 125 51 57 -31 48 16 1.37
128 22 56 -31 15 41 16 26 20.2 21 78 -67 129 33 26 -30 48 41 127 7 44 -31 42 42 130 10 57 -30 33 38 126 23 30 -31 57 46 1.37
128 51 47 -31 25 3 16 26 22.2 21 78 -66 130 1 15 -30 57 58 127 37 50 -31 52 9 130 38 14 -30 42 54 126 54 23 -32 7 16 1.37
129 20 8 -31 34 25 16 26 24.3 22 78 -66 130 28 37 -31 7 16 128 7 20 -32 1 36 131 5 7 -30 52 9 127 24 38 -32 16 45 1.37
129 48 1 -31 43 47 16 26 26.3 22 77 -66 130 55 34 -31 16 34 128 36 18 -32 11 2 131 31 36 -31 1 25 127 54 17 -32 26 14 1.37
130 15 27 -31 53 9 16 26 28.3 23 77 -65 131 22 7 -31 25 52 129 4 45 -32 20 29 131 57 43 -31 10 41 128 23 24 -32 35 44 1.37
130 42 27 -32 2 31 16 26 30.3 23 77 -65 131 48 17 -31 35 10 129 32 44 -32 29 55 132 23 29 -31 19 57 128 51 59 -32 45 13 1.37
131 9 3 -32 11 54 16 26 32.3 23 76 -64 132 14 6 -31 44 28 130 0 15 -32 39 22 132 48 54 -31 29 13 129 20 4 -32 54 42 1.37
131 35 17 -32 21 16 16 26 34.3 24 76 -64 132 39 35 -31 53 47 130 27 21 -32 48 49 133 14 0 -31 38 29 129 47 43 -33 4 11 1.37
132 1 9 -32 30 39 16 26 36.3 24 76 -64 133 4 44 -32 3 5 130 54 2 -32 58 16 133 38 47 -31 47 45 130 14 54 -33 13 40 1.38
132 26 40 -32 40 2 16 26 38.3 24 75 -63 133 29 34 -32 12 24 131 20 20 -33 7 43 134 3 17 -31 57 2 130 41 42 -33 23 10 1.38
132 51 51 -32 49 25 16 26 40.3 24 75 -63 133 54 7 -32 21 43 131 46 16 -33 17 10 134 27 30 -32 6 19 131 8 5 -33 32 39 1.38
133 16 44 -32 58 48 16 26 42.4 25 75 -63 134 18 22 -32 31 3 132 11 51 -33 26 37 134 51 26 -32 15 36 131 34 7 -33 42 9 1.38
133 41 19 -33 8 12 16 26 44.4 25 74 -62 134 42 21 -32 40 22 132 37 6 -33 36 5 135 15 7 -32 24 54 131 59 47 -33 51 39 1.38
134 5 36 -33 17 36 16 26 46.4 25 74 -62 135 6 5 -32 49 43 133 2 2 -33 45 33 135 38 33 -32 34 12 132 25 7 -34 1 10 1.38
134 29 37 -33 27 0 16 26 48.4 26 74 -62 135 29 33 -32 59 3 133 26 40 -33 55 1 136 1 45 -32 43 31 132 50 7 -34 10 41 1.38
134 53 23 -33 36 25 16 26 50.4 26 73 -61 135 52 47 -33 8 24 133 51 0 -34 4 30 136 24 43 -32 52 49 133 14 49 -34 20 12 1.38
135 16 53 -33 45 50 16 26 52.4 26 73 -61 136 15 48 -33 17 45 134 15 4 -34 13 59 136 47 28 -33 2 9 133 39 14 -34 29 43 1.38
135 40 9 -33 55 15 16 26 54.4 26 73 -61 136 38 35 -33 27 7 134 38 52 -34 23 29 137 10 1 -33 11 28 134 3 22 -34 39 15 1.38
136 3 11 -34 4 41 16 26 56.4 27 72 -60 137 1 9 -33 36 29 135 2 25 -34 32 59 137 32 21 -33 20 48 134 27 14 -34 48 48 1.38
136 25 59 -34 14 8 16 26 58.5 27 72 -60 137 23 31 -33 45 52 135 25 44 -34 42 30 137 54 29 -33 30 9 134 50 50 -34 58 21 1.38
136 48 35 -34 23 35 16 27 0.5 27 72 -59 137 45 41 -33 55 15 135 48 48 -34 52 1 138 16 26 -33 39 30 135 14 12 -35 7 54 1.38
137 10 59 -34 33 3 16 27 2.5 27 71 -59 138 7 40 -34 4 39 136 11 39 -35 1 32 138 38 12 -33 48 52 135 37 19 -35 17 28 1.38
137 33 10 -34 42 31 16 27 4.5 28 71 -59 138 29 28 -34 14 3 136 34 16 -35 11 4 138 59 48 -33 58 14 136 0 13 -35 27 2 1.38
137 55 10 -34 51 59 16 27 6.5 28 71 -58 138 51 5 -34 23 28 136 56 42 -35 20 37 139 21 13 -34 7 37 136 22 54 -35 36 37 1.38
138 16 59 -35 1 29 16 27 8.5 28 70 -58 139 12 32 -34 32 53 137 18 55 -35 30 10 139 42 29 -34 17 0 136 45 22 -35 46 13 1.38
138 38 38 -35 10 59 16 27 10.5 28 70 -58 139 33 49 -34 42 19 137 40 57 -35 39 44 140 3 35 -34 26 24 137 7 39 -35 55 49 1.38
139 0 6 -35 20 29 16 27 12.5 29 70 -57 139 54 57 -34 51 46 138 2 48 -35 49 19 140 24 32 -34 35 49 137 29 43 -36 5 26 1.38
139 21 24 -35 30 0 16 27 14.5 29 69 -57 140 15 55 -35 1 13 138 24 28 -35 58 54 140 45 20 -34 45 14 137 51 36 -36 15 4 1.38
139 42 33 -35 39 32 16 27 16.6 29 69 -57 140 36 45 -35 10 41 138 45 58 -36 8 30 141 6 0 -34 54 40 138 13 19 -36 24 42 1.38
140 3 33 -35 49 5 16 27 18.6 29 68 -56 140 57 26 -35 20 10 139 7 18 -36 18 7 141 26 32 -35 4 6 138 34 51 -36 34 21 1.38
140 24 23 -35 58 38 16 27 20.6 30 68 -56 141 17 59 -35 29 39 139 28 29 -36 27 44 141 46 55 -35 13 33 138 56 13 -36 44 0 1.38
140 45 6 -36 8 12 16 27 22.6 30 68 -56 141 38 24 -35 39 9 139 49 30 -36 37 22 142 7 11 -35 23 1 139 17 26 -36 53 41 1.38
141 5 40 -36 17 46 16 27 24.6 30 67 -56 141 58 41 -35 48 40 140 10 22 -36 47 1 142 27 20 -35 32 30 139 38 29 -37 3 22 1.38
141 26 5 -36 27 22 16 27 26.6 30 67 -55 142 18 51 -35 58 11 140 31 5 -36 56 40 142 47 21 -35 41 59 139 59 23 -37 13 4 1.38
141 46 24 -36 36 58 16 27 28.6 30 67 -55 142 38 53 -36 7 43 140 51 41 -37 6 20 143 7 15 -35 51 29 140 20 9 -37 22 46 1.38
142 6 34 -36 46 35 16 27 30.6 31 66 -55 142 58 49 -36 17 16 141 12 8 -37 16 1 143 27 3 -36 1 0 140 40 46 -37 32 30 1.38
142 26 38 -36 56 12 16 27 32.6 31 66 -54 143 18 38 -36 26 50 141 32 28 -37 25 43 143 46 44 -36 10 31 141 1 15 -37 42 14 1.38
142 46 34 -37 5 51 16 27 34.7 31 66 -54 143 38 20 -36 36 24 141 52 40 -37 35 26 144 6 19 -36 20 3 141 21 36 -37 51 59 1.38
143 6 24 -37 15 30 16 27 36.7 31 65 -54 143 57 56 -36 46 0 142 12 44 -37 45 10 144 25 48 -36 29 36 141 41 50 -38 1 45 1.38
143 26 7 -37 25 11 16 27 38.7 31 65 -53 144 17 26 -36 55 36 142 32 42 -37 54 54 144 45 10 -36 39 10 142 1 56 -38 11 32 1.38
143 45 44 -37 34 52 16 27 40.7 31 65 -53 144 36 50 -37 5 13 142 52 33 -38 4 39 145 4 28 -36 48 45 142 21 56 -38 21 20 1.38
144 5 15 -37 44 34 16 27 42.7 32 64 -53 144 56 8 -37 14 50 143 12 18 -38 14 26 145 23 39 -36 58 21 142 41 48 -38 31 9 1.38
144 24 40 -37 54 16 16 27 44.7 32 64 -52 145 15 21 -37 24 29 143 31 56 -38 24 13 145 42 46 -37 7 57 143 1 34 -38 40 58 1.38
144 44 0 -38 4 0 16 27 46.7 32 63 -52 145 34 29 -37 34 9 143 51 28 -38 34 1 146 1 47 -37 17 34 143 21 14 -38 50 49 1.38
145 3 14 -38 13 45 16 27 48.7 32 63 -52 145 53 31 -37 43 49 144 10 54 -38 43 50 146 20 43 -37 27 12 143 40 48 -39 0 40 1.38
145 22 22 -38 23 30 16 27 50.8 32 63 -51 146 12 28 -37 53 30 144 30 15 -38 53 40 146 39 35 -37 36 51 144 0 15 -39 10 33 1.38
145 41 25 -38 33 17 16 27 52.8 32 62 -51 146 31 21 -38 3 13 144 49 30 -39 3 31 146 58 22 -37 46 31 144 19 37 -39 20 26 1.38
146 0 24 -38 43 4 16 27 54.8 33 62 -51 146 50 9 -38 12 56 145 8 39 -39 13 23 147 17 4 -37 56 12 144 38 54 -39 30 21 1.38
146 19 17 -38 52 53 16 27 56.8 33 62 -51 147 8 52 -38 22 40 145 27 44 -39 23 16 147 35 42 -38 5 54 144 58 5 -39 40 17 1.38
146 38 6 -39 2 42 16 27 58.8 33 61 -50 147 27 31 -38 32 25 145 46 44 -39 33 10 147 54 16 -38 15 37 145 17 10 -39 50 13 1.38
146 56 51 -39 12 33 16 28 0.8 33 61 -50 147 46 6 -38 42 11 146 5 38 -39 43 5 148 12 46 -38 25 20 145 36 11 -40 0 11 1.38
147 15 31 -39 22 24 16 28 2.8 33 60 -50 148 4 37 -38 51 58 146 24 29 -39 53 1 148 31 11 -38 35 5 145 55 7 -40 10 10 1.38
147 34 7 -39 32 17 16 28 4.8 33 60 -49 148 23 4 -39 1 46 146 43 14 -40 2 58 148 49 34 -38 44 51 146 13 59 -40 20 10 1.38
147 52 39 -39 42 11 16 28 6.8 33 60 -49 148 41 27 -39 11 35 147 1 56 -40 12 57 149 7 52 -38 54 37 146 32 46 -40 30 11 1.38
148 11 8 -39 52 5 16 28 8.9 33 59 -49 148 59 47 -39 21 26 147 20 33 -40 22 56 149 26 7 -39 4 25 146 51 29 -40 40 13 1.38
148 29 32 -40 2 1 16 28 10.9 34 59 -48 149 18 3 -39 31 17 147 39 7 -40 32 57 149 44 19 -39 14 14 147 10 7 -40 50 16 1.38
148 47 53 -40 11 58 16 28 12.9 34 59 -48 149 36 16 -39 41 9 147 57 36 -40 42 59 150 2 28 -39 24 3 147 28 42 -41 0 21 1.38
149 6 11 -40 21 56 16 28 14.9 34 58 -48 149 54 26 -39 51 2 148 16 2 -40 53 1 150 20 33 -39 33 54 147 47 12 -41 10 26 1.38
149 24 25 -40 31 55 16 28 16.9 34 58 -48 150 12 32 -40 0 57 148 34 24 -41 3 5 150 38 36 -39 43 46 148 5 39 -41 20 33 1.38
149 42 36 -40 41 56 16 28 18.9 34 57 -47 150 30 36 -40 10 53 148 52 43 -41 13 11 150 56 35 -39 53 39 148 24 3 -41 30 41 1.38
150 0 44 -40 51 57 16 28 20.9 34 57 -47 150 48 37 -40 20 49 149 10 59 -41 23 17 151 14 32 -40 3 33 148 42 23 -41 40 51 1.38
150 18 49 -41 2 0 16 28 22.9 34 57 -47 151 6 35 -40 30 47 149 29 11 -41 33 25 151 32 26 -40 13 29 149 0 40 -41 51 1 1.38
150 36 52 -41 12 4 16 28 24.9 34 56 -46 151 24 30 -40 40 46 149 47 21 -41 43 34 151 50 18 -40 23 25 149 18 53 -42 1 13 1.38
150 54 51 -41 22 9 16 28 27.0 34 56 -46 151 42 23 -40 50 47 150 5 28 -41 53 44 152 8 8 -40 33 23 149 37 4 -42 11 26 1.38
151 12 48 -41 32 15 16 28 29.0 35 56 -46 152 0 14 -41 0 48 150 23 31 -42 3 56 152 25 55 -40 43 21 149 55 12 -42 21 41 1.38
151 30 43 -41 42 23 16 28 31.0 35 55 -46 152 18 3 -41 10 51 150 41 33 -42 14 9 152 43 40 -40 53 21 150 13 17 -42 31 56 1.38
151 48 36 -41 52 32 16 28 33.0 35 55 -45 152 35 49 -41 20 55 150 59 31 -42 24 23 153 1 23 -41 3 22 150 31 19 -42 42 14 1.38
152 6 26 -42 2 42 16 28 35.0 35 54 -45 152 53 33 -41 31 0 151 17 28 -42 34 38 153 19 4 -41 13 25 150 49 19 -42 52 32 1.38
152 24 14 -42 12 54 16 28 37.0 35 54 -45 153 11 16 -41 41 6 151 35 22 -42 44 55 153 36 43 -41 23 28 151 7 16 -43 2 52 1.38
152 42 0 -42 23 7 16 28 39.0 35 54 -44 153 28 56 -41 51 14 151 53 14 -42 55 13 153 54 21 -41 33 33 151 25 12 -43 13 13 1.37
152 59 45 -42 33 21 16 28 41.0 35 53 -44 153 46 35 -42 1 23 152 11 4 -43 5 33 154 11 57 -41 43 39 151 43 5 -43 23 36 1.37
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