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Updated: 2022 Jun 13, 20:51 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2022 Aug 12 UT, the 40 km diameter asteroid (783) Nora will occult a 11.9 mag star in the constellation Serpens for observers along a path across western South Australia during evening twilight.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.9 mag to 13.66 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.0 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 374-098636 by 783 Nora on 2022 Aug 12
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
129 44 40 -26 39 58 9 17 29.9 54 79 -5 129 58 31 -26 35 12 129 30 45 -26 44 43 130 7 49 -26 31 59 129 21 21 -26 47 55 0.72
129 53 16 -26 58 19 9 17 35.5 54 79 -5 130 7 9 -26 53 32 129 39 19 -27 3 5 130 16 27 -26 50 18 129 29 54 -27 6 17 0.72
130 1 49 -27 16 41 9 17 41.1 54 78 -5 130 15 44 -27 11 53 129 47 51 -27 21 28 130 25 3 -27 8 38 129 38 25 -27 24 40 0.72
130 10 20 -27 35 2 9 17 46.6 54 78 -5 130 24 16 -27 30 13 129 56 20 -27 39 50 130 33 36 -27 26 59 129 46 53 -27 43 4 0.72
130 18 48 -27 53 25 9 17 52.2 54 77 -6 130 32 46 -27 48 35 130 4 47 -27 58 13 130 42 7 -27 45 19 129 55 18 -28 1 27 0.72
130 27 14 -28 11 47 9 17 57.8 54 77 -6 130 41 13 -28 6 56 130 13 11 -28 16 37 130 50 36 -28 3 40 130 3 41 -28 19 51 0.72
130 35 37 -28 30 10 9 18 3.3 54 76 -6 130 49 39 -28 25 18 130 21 33 -28 35 1 130 59 2 -28 22 2 130 12 2 -28 38 16 0.71
130 43 59 -28 48 34 9 18 8.9 54 76 -6 130 58 2 -28 43 41 130 29 52 -28 53 25 131 7 27 -28 40 24 130 20 20 -28 56 41 0.71
130 52 18 -29 6 58 9 18 14.5 54 75 -6 131 6 22 -29 2 4 130 38 9 -29 11 50 131 15 49 -28 58 46 130 28 36 -29 15 7 0.71
131 0 34 -29 25 22 9 18 20.0 54 75 -7 131 14 41 -29 20 28 130 46 24 -29 30 16 131 24 8 -29 17 9 130 36 50 -29 33 33 0.71
131 8 49 -29 43 48 9 18 25.6 54 74 -7 131 22 57 -29 38 52 130 54 37 -29 48 42 131 32 26 -29 35 33 130 45 1 -29 52 0 0.71
131 17 1 -30 2 14 9 18 31.2 54 74 -7 131 31 12 -29 57 17 131 2 47 -30 7 9 131 40 42 -29 53 57 130 53 10 -30 10 28 0.71
131 25 12 -30 20 40 9 18 36.7 54 73 -7 131 39 24 -30 15 43 131 10 56 -30 25 37 131 48 56 -30 12 22 131 1 17 -30 28 56 0.71
131 33 20 -30 39 8 9 18 42.3 55 72 -7 131 47 35 -30 34 9 131 19 2 -30 44 5 131 57 8 -30 30 48 131 9 22 -30 47 25 0.71
131 41 27 -30 57 36 9 18 47.9 55 72 -8 131 55 43 -30 52 36 131 27 6 -31 2 34 132 5 18 -30 49 14 131 17 25 -31 5 55 0.71
131 49 31 -31 16 5 9 18 53.4 55 71 -8 132 3 50 -31 11 4 131 35 9 -31 21 5 132 13 26 -31 7 42 131 25 26 -31 24 26 0.71
131 57 34 -31 34 35 9 18 59.0 55 71 -8 132 11 55 -31 29 33 131 43 9 -31 39 36 132 21 32 -31 26 10 131 33 25 -31 42 57 0.71
132 5 35 -31 53 6 9 19 4.6 55 70 -8 132 19 58 -31 48 3 131 51 7 -31 58 7 132 29 37 -31 44 39 131 41 22 -32 1 30 0.71
132 13 34 -32 11 38 9 19 10.1 55 70 -8 132 27 59 -32 6 34 131 59 4 -32 16 40 132 37 39 -32 3 9 131 49 17 -32 20 3 0.71
132 21 31 -32 30 10 9 19 15.7 55 69 -9 132 35 59 -32 25 6 132 6 59 -32 35 14 132 45 41 -32 21 40 131 57 10 -32 38 38 0.71
132 29 27 -32 48 44 9 19 21.3 55 69 -9 132 43 57 -32 43 39 132 14 52 -32 53 49 132 53 40 -32 40 13 132 5 1 -32 57 14 0.71
132 37 21 -33 7 19 9 19 26.8 55 68 -9 132 51 53 -33 2 13 132 22 44 -33 12 25 133 1 38 -32 58 46 132 12 51 -33 15 51 0.71
132 45 13 -33 25 56 9 19 32.4 55 67 -9 132 59 48 -33 20 48 132 30 33 -33 31 3 133 9 35 -33 17 20 132 20 39 -33 34 29 0.71
132 53 4 -33 44 33 9 19 38.0 55 67 -9 133 7 42 -33 39 24 132 38 21 -33 49 41 133 17 30 -33 35 56 132 28 26 -33 53 8 0.71
133 0 53 -34 3 12 9 19 43.5 55 66 -10 133 15 34 -33 58 2 132 46 8 -34 8 21 133 25 24 -33 54 33 132 36 10 -34 11 48 0.71
133 8 41 -34 21 52 9 19 49.1 55 66 -10 133 23 24 -34 16 40 132 53 53 -34 27 2 133 33 16 -34 13 11 132 43 53 -34 30 30 0.71
133 16 27 -34 40 33 9 19 54.7 55 65 -10 133 31 13 -34 35 21 133 1 37 -34 45 44 133 41 7 -34 31 50 132 51 35 -34 49 13 0.71
133 24 12 -34 59 15 9 20 0.2 55 65 -10 133 39 1 -34 54 2 133 9 19 -35 4 28 133 48 57 -34 50 31 132 59 15 -35 7 58 0.71
133 31 55 -35 18 0 9 20 5.8 55 64 -10 133 46 47 -35 12 45 133 16 59 -35 23 13 133 56 45 -35 9 13 133 6 54 -35 26 44 0.70
133 39 38 -35 36 45 9 20 11.4 55 64 -11 133 54 33 -35 31 29 133 24 38 -35 42 0 134 4 32 -35 27 57 133 14 31 -35 45 31 0.70
133 47 19 -35 55 32 9 20 16.9 55 63 -11 134 2 17 -35 50 15 133 32 16 -36 0 48 134 12 18 -35 46 42 133 22 7 -36 4 20 0.70
133 54 58 -36 14 21 9 20 22.5 55 62 -11 134 9 59 -36 9 3 133 39 53 -36 19 38 134 20 3 -36 5 28 133 29 41 -36 23 11 0.70
134 2 37 -36 33 11 9 20 28.1 54 62 -11 134 17 41 -36 27 52 133 47 28 -36 38 29 134 27 47 -36 24 17 133 37 14 -36 42 3 0.70
134 10 14 -36 52 3 9 20 33.6 54 61 -11 134 25 22 -36 46 43 133 55 2 -36 57 22 134 35 30 -36 43 7 133 44 46 -37 0 57 0.70
134 17 51 -37 10 57 9 20 39.2 54 61 -11 134 33 1 -37 5 35 134 2 35 -37 16 17 134 43 11 -37 1 58 133 52 17 -37 19 53 0.70
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