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Updated: 2022 JUN 13, 20:38 UT
Event Rank : 94
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2022 Jul 19 UT, the 85 km diameter asteroid (416) Vaticana will occult a 11.4 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a path across the South Island of New Zealand, near Invercargill.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.62 mag to 11.14 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 47.620 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 289-088661 by 416 Vaticana on 2022 Jul 19
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
152 17 53 - 2 0 0 10 35 13.0 60 185 -37 151 54 45 152 41 1 151 33 37 153 2 12 -0.10
152 23 20 - 3 0 0 10 36 11.2 61 186 -38 152 0 10 152 46 30 151 39 1 153 7 43 -0.11
152 28 57 - 4 0 0 10 37 10.1 62 186 -39 152 5 45 152 52 10 151 44 33 153 13 25 -0.11
152 34 45 - 5 0 0 10 38 9.6 62 187 -39 152 11 30 152 58 1 151 50 16 153 19 19 -0.11
152 40 46 - 6 0 0 10 39 9.7 63 188 -40 152 17 27 153 4 6 151 56 10 153 25 27 -0.12
152 47 1 - 7 0 0 10 40 10.4 64 189 -41 152 23 38 153 10 25 152 2 17 153 31 50 -0.12
152 53 30 - 8 0 0 10 41 11.7 65 190 -42 152 30 3 153 16 59 152 8 37 153 38 29 -0.13
153 0 16 - 9 0 0 10 42 13.6 66 191 -42 152 36 44 153 23 51 152 15 14 153 45 25 -0.13
153 7 20 -10 0 0 10 43 16.1 67 193 -43 152 43 42 153 31 0 152 22 7 153 52 41 -0.14
153 14 44 -11 0 0 10 44 19.1 68 194 -44 152 50 59 153 38 30 152 29 18 154 0 16 -0.14
153 22 28 -12 0 0 10 45 22.6 69 195 -44 152 58 36 153 46 22 152 36 49 154 8 14 -0.15
153 30 35 -13 0 0 10 46 26.7 70 197 -45 153 6 36 153 54 36 152 44 41 154 16 36 -0.15
153 39 6 -14 0 0 10 47 31.2 70 199 -46 153 14 58 154 3 16 152 52 56 154 25 24 -0.16
153 48 3 -15 0 0 10 48 36.3 71 201 -46 153 23 47 154 12 22 153 1 36 154 34 39 -0.17
153 57 29 -16 0 0 10 49 41.8 72 203 -47 153 33 2 154 21 57 153 10 43 154 44 23 -0.17
154 7 24 -17 0 0 10 50 47.8 73 205 -48 153 42 47 154 32 3 153 20 18 154 54 39 -0.18
154 17 51 -18 0 0 10 51 54.2 73 208 -48 153 53 3 154 42 42 153 30 24 155 5 28 -0.18
154 28 52 -19 0 0 10 53 1.1 74 211 -49 154 3 52 154 53 56 153 41 3 155 16 53 -0.19
154 40 31 -20 0 0 10 54 8.5 75 214 -49 154 15 17 155 5 47 153 52 16 155 28 57 -0.19
154 52 48 -21 0 0 10 55 16.2 75 217 -50 154 27 21 155 18 18 154 4 7 155 41 41 -0.20
155 5 47 -22 0 0 10 56 24.3 76 221 -51 154 40 5 155 31 33 154 16 38 155 55 9 -0.20
155 19 31 -23 0 0 10 57 32.9 76 225 -51 154 53 33 155 45 33 154 29 52 156 9 24 -0.21
155 34 3 -24 0 0 10 58 41.8 76 229 -52 155 7 48 156 0 21 154 43 51 156 24 29 -0.21
155 49 25 -25 0 0 10 59 51.1 77 233 -52 155 22 52 156 16 2 154 58 39 156 40 26 -0.22
156 5 42 -26 0 0 11 1 0.7 77 238 -53 155 38 50 156 32 38 155 14 19 156 57 21 -0.22
156 22 56 -27 0 0 11 2 10.7 77 242 -53 155 55 44 156 50 14 155 30 55 157 15 16 -0.23
156 41 13 -28 0 0 11 3 21.1 77 247 -54 156 13 39 157 8 53 155 48 30 157 34 16 -0.24
157 0 36 -29 0 0 11 4 31.8 76 251 -54 156 32 38 157 28 40 156 7 8 157 54 25 -0.24
157 21 10 -30 0 0 11 5 42.9 76 256 -55 156 52 47 157 49 40 156 26 55 158 15 48 -0.24
157 43 0 -31 0 0 11 6 54.3 76 260 -55 157 14 10 158 11 57 156 47 54 158 38 31 -0.25
158 6 12 -32 0 0 11 8 6.0 75 264 -56 157 36 53 158 35 38 157 10 11 159 2 39 -0.25
158 30 51 -33 0 0 11 9 18.0 75 267 -56 158 1 1 159 0 48 157 33 51 159 28 18 -0.26
158 57 4 -34 0 0 11 10 30.4 74 271 -56 158 26 41 159 27 34 157 59 2 159 55 36 -0.26
159 24 58 -35 0 0 11 11 43.1 74 274 -57 158 54 0 159 56 5 158 25 49 160 24 40 -0.27
159 54 41 -36 0 0 11 12 56.2 73 276 -57 159 23 5 160 26 27 158 54 19 160 55 38 -0.27
160 26 22 -37 0 0 11 14 9.6 72 279 -57 159 54 5 160 58 49 159 24 42 161 28 40 -0.27
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
161 0 0 -37 59 43 11 15 23.0 71 281 -58 -38 55 58 -37 2 7 -39 46 19 -36 8 9 -0.28
162 0 0 -39 37 21 11 17 24.0 70 284 -58 -40 29 57 -38 43 39 -41 17 8 -37 53 30 -0.28
163 0 0 -41 5 17 11 19 13.8 68 286 -58 -41 54 48 -40 14 49 -42 39 19 -39 27 49 -0.29
164 0 0 -42 25 1 11 20 54.3 67 287 -58 -43 11 56 -41 37 20 -43 54 10 -40 52 59 -0.29
165 0 0 -43 37 47 11 22 26.9 66 288 -59 -44 22 26 -42 52 28 -45 2 42 -42 10 24 -0.29
166 0 0 -44 44 30 11 23 52.5 64 289 -59 -45 27 11 -44 1 15 -46 5 44 -43 21 9 -0.30
167 0 0 -45 45 57 11 25 12.2 63 289 -59 -46 26 54 -45 4 30 -47 3 56 -44 26 7 -0.30
168 0 0 -46 42 45 11 26 26.6 62 289 -59 -47 22 10 -46 2 53 -47 57 50 -45 26 2 -0.30
169 0 0 -47 35 25 11 27 36.4 61 289 -58 -48 13 28 -46 56 59 -48 47 55 -46 21 28 -0.30
170 0 0 -48 24 23 11 28 42.0 60 289 -58 -49 1 12 -47 47 13 -49 34 34 -47 12 54 -0.30
Uncertainty in time = +/- 29 secs
Prediction of 2022 Jun 13.9
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