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Updated: 2021 JUN 12, 13:41 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2022 Jul 11 UT, the 529 km diameter asteroid (4) Vesta will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a very broad path across the North Island of New Zealand, including all of the eastern half of that island.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.01 mag to 6.83 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 137.200 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-376-178556 by 4 Vesta on 2022 Jul 11
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
179 55 49 -38 37 20 13 15 53.3 53 59 -68 -176 38 43 -38 51 49 176 25 22 -38 19 44 -176 33 40 -38 52 8 176 20 4 -38 19 15 -0.45
179 42 49 -39 1 6 13 16 3.9 52 59 -67 -176 50 23 -39 15 46 176 11 0 -38 43 16 -176 45 19 -39 16 6 176 5 41 -38 42 47 -0.45
179 29 34 -39 24 55 13 16 14.6 52 59 -67 -177 2 18 -39 39 46 175 56 20 -39 6 52 -176 57 12 -39 40 6 175 50 58 -39 6 22 -0.45
179 16 1 -39 48 47 13 16 25.3 52 59 -67 -177 14 28 -40 3 51 175 41 21 -39 30 30 -177 9 19 -40 4 11 175 35 57 -39 30 0 -0.45
179 2 11 -40 12 43 13 16 35.9 51 59 -67 -177 26 53 -40 27 59 175 26 2 -39 54 12 -177 21 42 -40 28 19 175 20 36 -39 53 42 -0.45
178 48 3 -40 36 43 13 16 46.6 51 58 -67 -177 39 33 -40 52 11 175 10 23 -40 17 56 -177 34 21 -40 52 32 175 4 54 -40 17 26 -0.45
178 33 36 -41 0 46 13 16 57.3 51 58 -66 -177 52 31 -41 16 27 174 54 23 -40 41 44 -177 47 16 -41 16 48 174 48 52 -40 41 13 -0.45
178 18 50 -41 24 53 13 17 7.9 50 58 -66 -178 5 45 -41 40 47 174 38 1 -41 5 35 -178 0 27 -41 41 9 174 32 27 -41 5 4 -0.45
178 3 44 -41 49 4 13 17 18.6 50 58 -66 -178 19 16 -42 5 12 174 21 16 -41 29 29 -178 13 57 -42 5 33 174 15 40 -41 28 57 -0.45
177 48 18 -42 13 18 13 17 29.3 50 58 -66 -178 33 6 -42 29 41 174 4 8 -41 53 27 -178 27 44 -42 30 3 173 58 30 -41 52 54 -0.45
177 32 30 -42 37 37 13 17 39.9 49 57 -66 -178 47 15 -42 54 14 173 46 37 -42 17 27 -178 41 51 -42 54 36 173 40 55 -42 16 54 -0.45
177 16 20 -43 1 59 13 17 50.6 49 57 -65 -179 1 43 -43 18 51 173 28 40 -42 41 31 -178 56 16 -43 19 14 173 22 56 -42 40 58 -0.45
176 59 46 -43 26 25 13 18 1.3 49 57 -65 -179 16 31 -43 43 34 173 10 17 -43 5 39 -179 11 2 -43 43 56 173 4 30 -43 5 5 -0.45
176 42 49 -43 50 56 13 18 11.9 48 57 -65 -179 31 41 -44 8 20 172 51 27 -43 29 49 -179 26 9 -44 8 44 172 45 37 -43 29 15 -0.45
176 25 28 -44 15 30 13 18 22.6 48 57 -65 -179 47 12 -44 33 12 172 32 9 -43 54 4 -179 41 37 -44 33 35 172 26 17 -43 53 29 -0.45
176 7 40 -44 40 9 13 18 33.3 47 57 -64 179 56 55 -44 58 8 172 12 23 -44 18 21 -179 57 28 -44 58 32 172 6 27 -44 17 46 -0.45
175 49 26 -45 4 52 13 18 43.9 47 57 -64 179 40 37 -45 23 9 171 52 6 -44 42 42 179 46 18 -45 23 34 171 46 7 -44 42 6 -0.45
175 30 44 -45 29 39 13 18 54.6 47 57 -64 179 23 56 -45 48 15 171 31 18 -45 7 7 179 29 39 -45 48 40 171 25 16 -45 6 30 -0.45
175 11 33 -45 54 30 13 19 5.3 46 57 -64 179 6 49 -46 13 27 171 9 57 -45 31 35 179 12 35 -46 13 52 171 3 52 -45 30 58 -0.45
174 51 52 -46 19 26 13 19 16.0 46 57 -63 178 49 16 -46 38 43 170 48 3 -45 56 7 178 55 5 -46 39 9 170 41 54 -45 55 29 -0.45
174 31 40 -46 44 27 13 19 26.6 46 57 -63 178 31 15 -47 4 5 170 25 33 -46 20 42 178 37 7 -47 4 31 170 19 20 -46 20 3 -0.45
174 10 55 -47 9 32 13 19 37.3 45 57 -63 178 12 45 -47 29 31 170 2 26 -46 45 20 178 18 41 -47 29 58 169 56 10 -46 44 41 -0.45
173 49 37 -47 34 41 13 19 48.0 45 57 -63 177 53 45 -47 55 4 169 38 41 -47 10 3 177 59 44 -47 55 31 169 32 21 -47 9 22 -0.45
173 27 42 -47 59 55 13 19 58.6 44 57 -62 177 34 14 -48 20 42 169 14 16 -47 34 48 177 40 17 -48 21 9 169 7 52 -47 34 7 -0.45
172 42 1 -48 50 37 13 20 20.0 43 57 -62 176 53 33 -49 12 14 168 23 18 -48 24 30 176 59 43 -49 12 43 168 16 46 -48 23 47 -0.45
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2021 Jun 12.0
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