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Updated: 2022 Apr 15, 20:00 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2022 Jun 04 UT, the 102 km diameter asteroid (387) Aquitania will occult a 12.3 mag star in the constellation Serpens for observers along a path across northern New South Wales and South Australia, passing over Grafton, Coffs Harbour, Coonabarrabran, Dubbo, Broken Hill, Port Pirie and Adelaide.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by only 0.2 mag to 10.42 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 18.6 seconds. This event will not be observable visually.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 445-080158 by 387 Aquitania on 2022 Jun 4
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
155 44 14 -29 12 25 20 3 41.6 16 278 -5 157 18 30 -29 39 41 154 18 46 -28 45 9 158 17 38 -29 55 18 153 32 55 -28 29 29 1.20
154 59 56 -29 21 9 20 3 47.4 17 278 -6 156 30 41 -29 48 30 153 37 10 -28 53 47 157 27 16 -30 4 12 152 52 37 -28 38 5 1.20
154 17 5 -29 29 52 20 3 53.2 17 279 -6 155 44 44 -29 57 19 152 56 46 -29 2 25 156 39 6 -30 13 4 152 13 24 -28 46 40 1.20
153 35 34 -29 38 34 20 3 59.0 18 279 -7 155 0 26 -30 6 6 152 17 27 -29 11 2 155 52 51 -30 21 54 151 35 9 -28 55 15 1.20
152 55 14 -29 47 15 20 4 4.8 18 280 -7 154 17 37 -30 14 52 151 39 7 -29 19 39 155 8 18 -30 30 44 150 57 49 -29 3 49 1.21
152 15 59 -29 55 55 20 4 10.7 19 280 -8 153 36 6 -30 23 37 151 1 42 -29 28 15 154 25 14 -30 39 32 150 21 19 -29 12 23 1.21
151 37 43 -30 4 36 20 4 16.5 19 280 -8 152 55 47 -30 32 22 150 25 8 -29 36 51 153 43 30 -30 48 20 149 45 35 -29 20 57 1.21
151 0 21 -30 13 15 20 4 22.3 20 281 -9 152 16 32 -30 41 6 149 49 20 -29 45 27 153 2 59 -30 57 7 149 10 34 -29 29 30 1.21
150 23 50 -30 21 55 20 4 28.1 20 281 -10 151 38 17 -30 49 50 149 14 15 -29 54 2 152 23 34 -31 5 54 148 36 14 -29 38 3 1.21
149 48 5 -30 30 34 20 4 33.9 21 281 -10 151 0 56 -30 58 34 148 39 51 -30 2 38 151 45 10 -31 14 40 148 2 30 -29 46 37 1.21
149 13 3 -30 39 13 20 4 39.7 21 282 -11 150 24 25 -31 7 17 148 6 5 -30 11 13 151 7 40 -31 23 25 147 29 22 -29 55 10 1.21
148 38 42 -30 47 52 20 4 45.5 21 282 -11 149 48 41 -31 16 0 147 32 54 -30 19 48 150 31 1 -31 32 11 146 56 47 -30 3 43 1.21
148 4 58 -30 56 31 20 4 51.3 22 283 -12 149 13 40 -31 24 42 147 0 16 -30 28 23 149 55 10 -31 40 56 146 24 43 -30 12 16 1.21
147 31 49 -31 5 9 20 4 57.1 22 283 -12 148 39 18 -31 33 25 146 28 9 -30 36 58 149 20 1 -31 49 41 145 53 8 -30 20 49 1.21
146 59 13 -31 13 48 20 5 2.9 23 283 -12 148 5 35 -31 42 8 145 56 31 -30 45 34 148 45 34 -31 58 26 145 22 1 -30 29 23 1.21
146 27 8 -31 22 27 20 5 8.8 23 284 -13 147 32 26 -31 50 51 145 25 22 -30 54 9 148 11 44 -32 7 11 144 51 20 -30 37 56 1.21
145 55 32 -31 31 6 20 5 14.6 23 284 -13 146 59 51 -31 59 33 144 54 39 -31 2 45 147 38 30 -32 15 56 144 21 4 -30 46 30 1.21
145 24 24 -31 39 46 20 5 20.4 24 284 -14 146 27 46 -32 8 16 144 24 20 -31 11 20 147 5 49 -32 24 41 143 51 11 -30 55 4 1.21
144 53 42 -31 48 25 20 5 26.2 24 285 -14 145 56 11 -32 16 59 143 54 25 -31 19 56 146 33 40 -32 33 26 143 21 41 -31 3 38 1.21
144 23 25 -31 57 5 20 5 32.0 25 285 -15 145 25 3 -32 25 42 143 24 53 -31 28 33 146 1 59 -32 42 12 142 52 32 -31 12 12 1.21
143 53 32 -32 5 44 20 5 37.8 25 285 -15 144 54 21 -32 34 26 142 55 42 -31 37 9 145 30 47 -32 50 57 142 23 44 -31 20 47 1.21
143 24 1 -32 14 25 20 5 43.6 25 286 -16 144 24 5 -32 43 10 142 26 51 -31 45 46 145 0 1 -32 59 43 141 55 14 -31 29 21 1.21
142 54 51 -32 23 5 20 5 49.4 26 286 -16 143 54 11 -32 51 53 141 58 20 -31 54 23 144 29 40 -33 8 29 141 27 4 -31 37 57 1.21
142 26 1 -32 31 46 20 5 55.2 26 287 -16 143 24 40 -33 0 38 141 30 8 -32 3 0 143 59 43 -33 17 15 140 59 10 -31 46 32 1.21
141 57 31 -32 40 27 20 6 1.1 26 287 -17 142 55 30 -33 9 22 141 2 13 -32 11 38 143 30 8 -33 26 2 140 31 34 -31 55 8 1.21
141 29 19 -32 49 8 20 6 6.9 27 287 -17 142 26 41 -33 18 7 140 34 35 -32 20 16 143 0 55 -33 34 49 140 4 14 -32 3 44 1.21
141 1 25 -32 57 50 20 6 12.7 27 288 -18 141 58 10 -33 26 52 140 7 13 -32 28 54 142 32 2 -33 43 36 139 37 10 -32 12 20 1.21
140 33 47 -33 6 32 20 6 18.5 27 288 -18 141 29 58 -33 35 38 139 40 7 -32 37 33 142 3 28 -33 52 24 139 10 20 -32 20 57 1.21
140 6 26 -33 15 15 20 6 24.3 27 288 -18 141 2 4 -33 44 24 139 13 16 -32 46 12 141 35 13 -34 1 12 138 43 45 -32 29 35 1.21
139 39 20 -33 23 58 20 6 30.1 28 289 -19 140 34 26 -33 53 11 138 46 39 -32 54 52 141 7 15 -34 10 1 138 17 23 -32 38 13 1.21
139 12 29 -33 32 41 20 6 35.9 28 289 -19 140 7 5 -34 1 58 138 20 15 -33 3 32 140 39 35 -34 18 50 137 51 15 -32 46 51 1.21
138 45 53 -33 41 25 20 6 41.7 28 289 -20 139 39 58 -34 10 45 137 54 5 -33 12 13 140 12 10 -34 27 40 137 25 19 -32 55 30 1.21
138 19 30 -33 50 9 20 6 47.5 29 290 -20 139 13 7 -34 19 33 137 28 8 -33 20 54 139 45 1 -34 36 30 136 59 35 -33 4 9 1.21
137 53 20 -33 58 54 20 6 53.3 29 290 -20 138 46 30 -34 28 22 137 2 23 -33 29 35 139 18 7 -34 45 20 136 34 3 -33 12 48 1.21
137 27 22 -34 7 40 20 6 59.2 29 291 -21 138 20 6 -34 37 11 136 36 49 -33 38 17 138 51 27 -34 54 11 136 8 43 -33 21 29 1.21
137 1 37 -34 16 26 20 7 5.0 29 291 -21 137 53 56 -34 46 0 136 11 27 -33 47 0 138 25 1 -35 3 3 135 43 33 -33 30 9 1.21
136 36 3 -34 25 12 20 7 10.8 30 291 -21 137 27 58 -34 54 50 135 46 16 -33 55 43 137 58 48 -35 11 55 135 18 34 -33 38 50 1.22
136 10 41 -34 33 59 20 7 16.6 30 292 -22 137 2 12 -35 3 41 135 21 15 -34 4 27 137 32 47 -35 20 48 134 53 45 -33 47 32 1.22
135 45 30 -34 42 47 20 7 22.4 30 292 -22 136 36 37 -35 12 32 134 56 25 -34 13 11 137 6 59 -35 29 41 134 29 5 -33 56 15 1.22
135 20 28 -34 51 35 20 7 28.2 30 292 -22 136 11 14 -35 21 24 134 31 44 -34 21 56 136 41 22 -35 38 35 134 4 35 -34 4 57 1.22
134 55 37 -35 0 24 20 7 34.0 31 293 -23 135 46 2 -35 30 16 134 7 12 -34 30 41 136 15 57 -35 47 30 133 40 14 -34 13 41 1.22
134 30 56 -35 9 14 20 7 39.8 31 293 -23 135 21 0 -35 39 10 133 42 50 -34 39 27 135 50 42 -35 56 25 133 16 2 -34 22 25 1.22
134 6 24 -35 18 4 20 7 45.6 31 294 -23 134 56 7 -35 48 3 133 18 36 -34 48 14 135 25 37 -36 5 21 132 51 58 -34 31 10 1.22
133 42 0 -35 26 55 20 7 51.4 31 294 -24 134 31 25 -35 56 58 132 54 31 -34 57 1 135 0 43 -36 14 17 132 28 3 -34 39 55 1.22
133 17 46 -35 35 46 20 7 57.3 32 294 -24 134 6 52 -36 5 53 132 30 33 -35 5 49 134 35 58 -36 23 15 132 4 15 -34 48 41 1.22
132 53 40 -35 44 38 20 8 3.1 32 295 -24 133 42 27 -36 14 49 132 6 44 -35 14 37 134 11 23 -36 32 13 131 40 35 -34 57 27 1.22
132 29 41 -35 53 31 20 8 8.9 32 295 -25 133 18 11 -36 23 45 131 43 2 -35 23 27 133 46 56 -36 41 11 131 17 2 -35 6 15 1.22
132 5 51 -36 2 25 20 8 14.7 32 295 -25 132 54 4 -36 32 42 131 19 28 -35 32 17 133 22 38 -36 50 11 130 53 36 -35 15 3 1.22
131 42 8 -36 11 19 20 8 20.5 32 296 -25 132 30 4 -36 41 40 130 56 0 -35 41 7 132 58 28 -36 59 11 130 30 17 -35 23 51 1.22
131 18 33 -36 20 14 20 8 26.3 33 296 -26 132 6 12 -36 50 39 130 32 40 -35 49 58 132 34 27 -37 8 12 130 7 5 -35 32 40 1.22
130 55 4 -36 29 9 20 8 32.1 33 297 -26 131 42 28 -36 59 38 130 9 26 -35 58 51 132 10 33 -37 17 14 129 43 59 -35 41 30 1.22
130 31 42 -36 38 6 20 8 37.9 33 297 -26 131 18 51 -37 8 39 129 46 18 -36 7 43 131 46 46 -37 26 16 129 20 59 -35 50 21 1.22
130 8 27 -36 47 3 20 8 43.7 33 297 -27 130 55 21 -37 17 40 129 23 17 -36 16 37 131 23 7 -37 35 19 128 58 5 -35 59 13 1.22
129 45 17 -36 56 1 20 8 49.6 33 298 -27 130 31 57 -37 26 42 129 0 21 -36 25 31 130 59 34 -37 44 23 128 35 17 -36 8 5 1.22
129 22 14 -37 5 0 20 8 55.4 34 298 -27 130 8 40 -37 35 44 128 37 31 -36 34 26 130 36 9 -37 53 28 128 12 34 -36 16 58 1.22
128 59 17 -37 13 59 20 9 1.2 34 299 -28 129 45 29 -37 44 48 128 14 47 -36 43 22 130 12 49 -38 2 34 127 49 57 -36 25 51 1.22
128 36 26 -37 23 0 20 9 7.0 34 299 -28 129 22 24 -37 53 52 127 52 8 -36 52 18 129 49 36 -38 11 41 127 27 25 -36 34 46 1.22
128 13 39 -37 32 1 20 9 12.8 34 299 -28 128 59 24 -38 2 57 127 29 34 -37 1 16 129 26 29 -38 20 48 127 4 57 -36 43 41 1.22
127 50 58 -37 41 3 20 9 18.6 34 300 -28 128 36 31 -38 12 3 127 7 5 -37 10 14 129 3 28 -38 29 56 126 42 35 -36 52 37 1.22
127 28 23 -37 50 6 20 9 24.4 34 300 -29 128 13 42 -38 21 10 126 44 41 -37 19 13 128 40 32 -38 39 6 126 20 17 -37 1 34 1.22
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