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Updated: 2022 Mar 05, 20:08 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2022 Apr 22 UT, the 121 km diameter asteroid (81) Terpsichore will occult a 14.1 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a path across New Zealand and Victoria, passing near Christchurch, Bairnsdale and Bendigo.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by only 0.9 mag to 14.29 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 26.3 seconds. This event may be difficult to observe visually. Note gibbous moon nearby.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 287-130229 by 81 Terpsichore on 2022 Apr 22
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
176 31 53 -42 58 59 11 10 11.8 34 105 -57 176 56 6 -43 33 58 176 7 14 -42 23 44 177 7 51 -43 51 4 175 54 58 -42 6 18 -0.41
175 39 51 -42 58 56 11 10 20.6 33 106 -56 176 3 58 -43 34 10 175 15 18 -42 23 26 176 15 39 -43 51 23 175 3 3 -42 5 52 -0.41
174 47 3 -42 58 22 11 10 29.4 32 106 -56 175 11 3 -43 33 51 174 22 34 -42 22 35 175 22 41 -43 51 12 174 10 20 -42 4 53 -0.41
173 53 26 -42 57 14 11 10 38.1 32 107 -56 174 17 20 -43 33 0 173 29 0 -42 21 10 174 28 55 -43 50 28 173 16 48 -42 3 20 -0.42
172 58 58 -42 55 31 11 10 46.9 31 107 -55 173 22 48 -43 31 33 172 34 35 -42 19 10 173 34 20 -43 49 9 172 22 24 -42 1 10 -0.42
172 3 38 -42 53 11 11 10 55.6 31 108 -55 172 27 24 -43 29 31 171 39 17 -42 16 31 172 38 53 -43 47 15 171 27 6 -41 58 22 -0.42
171 7 23 -42 50 12 11 11 4.4 30 108 -55 171 31 6 -43 26 50 170 43 3 -42 13 12 171 42 33 -43 44 43 170 30 52 -41 54 53 -0.42
170 10 11 -42 46 31 11 11 13.1 29 109 -54 170 33 52 -43 23 28 169 45 51 -42 9 11 170 45 17 -43 41 31 169 33 38 -41 50 42 -0.42
169 11 59 -42 42 7 11 11 21.9 29 109 -54 169 35 40 -43 19 24 168 47 37 -42 4 25 169 47 4 -43 37 36 168 35 23 -41 45 45 -0.42
168 12 45 -42 36 56 11 11 30.6 28 110 -53 168 36 26 -43 14 35 167 48 19 -41 58 52 168 47 50 -43 32 57 167 36 2 -41 39 59 -0.42
167 12 24 -42 30 55 11 11 39.4 27 111 -53 167 36 8 -43 8 57 166 47 52 -41 52 27 167 47 32 -43 27 30 166 35 31 -41 33 21 -0.42
166 10 53 -42 24 2 11 11 48.2 26 111 -53 166 34 42 -43 2 29 165 46 13 -41 45 7 166 46 7 -43 21 13 165 33 47 -41 25 48 -0.42
151 33 10 -39 13 29 11 13 33.2 15 120 -46 152 5 46 -40 2 21 150 57 40 -38 22 48 152 20 50 -40 25 47 150 39 0 -37 57 6 -0.45
149 59 12 -38 41 34 11 13 42.0 14 121 -45 150 34 29 -39 32 40 149 20 20 -37 48 10 150 50 41 -39 57 4 148 59 41 -37 20 55 -0.46
148 18 16 -38 4 23 11 13 50.7 13 122 -44 148 57 16 -38 58 28 147 34 35 -37 7 16 149 15 0 -39 24 7 147 11 1 -36 37 49 -0.46
146 27 44 -37 20 4 11 13 59.5 11 123 -43 147 12 11 -38 18 19 145 36 39 -36 17 25 147 32 6 -38 45 41 145 8 24 -35 44 31 -0.47
144 22 42 -36 25 6 11 14 8.2 9 124 -42 145 15 55 -37 29 51 143 18 35 -35 12 58 145 39 11 -37 59 44 142 41 10 -34 33 30 -0.49
141 51 43 -35 11 20 11 14 17.0 7 125 -40 143 1 50 -36 28 18 140 15 46 -33 36 35 143 30 55 -37 2 28 139 6 52 -32 34 58 -0.52
138 5 2 -33 3 45 11 14 25.8 3 127 -38 140 11 43 -35 0 44 ... .. .. .. .. .. 140 54 22 -35 44 37 ... .. .. .. .. .. -0.70
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