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Updated: 2022 Feb 14, 19:35 UT
Event Rank : 68
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2022 Apr 09 UT, the 54 km diameter asteroid (1049) Gotho will occult a 10.1 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a somewhat uncertain path across western West Australia, passing near Onslow, Perth, Bunbury and Albany.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 6.1 mag to 16.26 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 6.2 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 7889-01086-1 by 1049 Gotho on 2022 Apr 9
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
115 1 27 -17 45 3 16 30 56.7 29 128 -80 115 27 14 -17 54 16 114 35 25 -17 35 34 116 12 1 -18 9 50 113 48 56 -17 18 8 1.14
115 7 1 -18 9 6 16 31 0.6 29 128 -79 115 32 43 -18 18 11 114 41 5 -17 59 44 116 17 20 -18 33 31 113 54 47 -17 42 34 1.14
115 12 21 -18 32 56 16 31 4.4 30 128 -79 115 37 57 -18 41 54 114 46 30 -18 23 43 116 22 27 -18 57 2 114 0 24 -18 6 47 1.14
115 17 27 -18 56 36 16 31 8.2 30 127 -79 115 42 59 -19 5 26 114 51 42 -18 47 29 116 27 21 -19 20 22 114 5 46 -18 30 48 1.14
115 22 21 -19 20 4 16 31 12.1 30 127 -78 115 47 48 -19 28 47 114 56 40 -19 11 5 116 32 2 -19 43 32 114 10 54 -18 54 37 1.14
115 27 1 -19 43 21 16 31 15.9 31 127 -78 115 52 24 -19 51 58 115 1 25 -19 34 30 116 36 32 -20 6 32 114 15 48 -19 18 15 1.14
115 31 29 -20 6 29 16 31 19.7 31 127 -77 115 56 48 -20 14 59 115 5 57 -19 57 44 116 40 50 -20 29 22 114 20 28 -19 41 41 1.14
115 35 45 -20 29 26 16 31 23.5 31 127 -77 116 1 1 -20 37 51 115 10 17 -20 20 47 116 44 57 -20 52 4 114 24 55 -20 4 57 1.14
115 39 49 -20 52 14 16 31 27.4 31 126 -77 116 5 1 -21 0 33 115 14 25 -20 43 41 116 48 53 -21 14 36 114 29 10 -20 28 2 1.14
115 43 42 -21 14 53 16 31 31.2 32 126 -76 116 8 51 -21 23 6 115 18 20 -21 6 26 116 52 37 -21 37 0 114 33 12 -20 50 58 1.14
115 47 23 -21 37 23 16 31 35.0 32 126 -76 116 12 29 -21 45 30 115 22 4 -21 29 1 116 56 12 -21 59 15 114 37 2 -21 13 43 1.14
115 50 53 -21 59 44 16 31 38.9 32 126 -75 116 15 57 -22 7 46 115 25 37 -21 51 27 116 59 35 -22 21 23 114 40 40 -21 36 20 1.14
115 54 12 -22 21 56 16 31 42.7 33 126 -75 116 19 13 -22 29 54 115 28 58 -22 13 45 117 2 49 -22 43 22 114 44 6 -21 58 47 1.13
115 57 20 -22 44 1 16 31 46.5 33 125 -75 116 22 20 -22 51 53 115 32 9 -22 35 54 117 5 52 -23 5 14 114 47 21 -22 21 6 1.13
116 0 18 -23 5 57 16 31 50.3 33 125 -74 116 25 16 -23 13 45 115 35 9 -22 57 56 117 8 46 -23 26 58 114 50 25 -22 43 16 1.13
116 3 5 -23 27 46 16 31 54.2 33 125 -74 116 28 2 -23 35 30 115 37 58 -23 19 49 117 11 29 -23 48 35 114 53 18 -23 5 17 1.13
116 5 43 -23 49 27 16 31 58.0 34 125 -74 116 30 38 -23 57 7 115 40 37 -23 41 35 117 14 4 -24 10 5 114 56 0 -23 27 11 1.13
116 8 10 -24 11 1 16 32 1.8 34 125 -73 116 33 4 -24 18 36 115 43 5 -24 3 13 117 16 28 -24 31 28 114 58 31 -23 48 57 1.13
116 10 27 -24 32 28 16 32 5.7 34 124 -73 116 35 20 -24 39 59 115 45 24 -24 24 44 117 18 44 -24 52 45 115 0 52 -24 10 35 1.13
116 12 35 -24 53 48 16 32 9.5 34 124 -72 116 37 28 -25 1 16 115 47 32 -24 46 7 117 20 50 -25 13 55 115 3 2 -24 32 6 1.13
116 14 33 -25 15 1 16 32 13.3 35 124 -72 116 39 25 -25 22 25 115 49 31 -25 7 24 117 22 47 -25 34 58 115 5 3 -24 53 30 1.13
116 16 22 -25 36 8 16 32 17.2 35 124 -72 116 41 13 -25 43 29 115 51 20 -25 28 35 117 24 35 -25 55 56 115 6 53 -25 14 47 1.13
116 18 1 -25 57 8 16 32 21.0 35 124 -71 116 42 53 -26 4 26 115 53 0 -25 49 38 117 26 14 -26 16 47 115 8 34 -25 35 57 1.13
116 19 31 -26 18 2 16 32 24.8 35 123 -71 116 44 23 -26 25 17 115 54 30 -26 10 36 117 27 45 -26 37 33 115 10 5 -25 57 1 1.13
116 20 52 -26 38 50 16 32 28.6 35 123 -71 116 45 44 -26 46 2 115 55 51 -26 31 27 117 29 6 -26 58 13 115 11 26 -26 17 58 1.13
116 22 4 -26 59 32 16 32 32.5 36 123 -70 116 46 56 -27 6 41 115 57 2 -26 52 12 117 30 19 -27 18 47 115 12 37 -26 38 48 1.13
116 23 6 -27 20 9 16 32 36.3 36 123 -70 116 47 59 -27 27 14 115 58 5 -27 12 51 117 31 24 -27 39 16 115 13 39 -26 59 33 1.13
116 24 0 -27 40 40 16 32 40.1 36 123 -70 116 48 53 -27 47 43 115 58 58 -27 33 25 117 32 20 -27 59 40 115 14 32 -27 20 12 1.13
116 24 45 -28 1 5 16 32 44.0 36 122 -69 116 49 39 -28 8 5 115 59 42 -27 53 53 117 33 7 -28 19 58 115 15 15 -27 40 45 1.13
116 25 21 -28 21 25 16 32 47.8 36 122 -69 116 50 16 -28 28 23 116 0 18 -28 14 15 117 33 46 -28 40 12 115 15 50 -28 1 12 1.13
116 25 49 -28 41 39 16 32 51.6 37 122 -69 116 50 45 -28 48 35 116 0 44 -28 34 33 117 34 17 -29 0 20 115 16 15 -28 21 33 1.12
116 26 8 -29 1 49 16 32 55.5 37 122 -68 116 51 5 -29 8 42 116 1 2 -28 54 44 117 34 40 -29 20 24 115 16 31 -28 41 50 1.12
116 26 18 -29 21 54 16 32 59.3 37 122 -68 116 51 16 -29 28 45 116 1 11 -29 14 51 117 34 54 -29 40 22 115 16 37 -29 2 0 1.12
116 26 19 -29 41 53 16 33 3.1 37 121 -68 116 51 19 -29 48 42 116 1 11 -29 34 53 117 35 0 -30 0 17 115 16 35 -29 22 6 1.12
116 26 12 -30 1 48 16 33 6.9 37 121 -67 116 51 14 -30 8 35 116 1 2 -29 54 50 117 34 57 -30 20 6 115 16 24 -29 42 7 -1.12
116 25 57 -30 21 38 16 33 10.8 38 121 -67 116 51 0 -30 28 24 116 0 45 -30 14 42 117 34 47 -30 39 51 115 16 4 -30 2 2 -1.12
116 25 32 -30 41 24 16 33 14.6 38 121 -67 116 50 38 -30 48 7 116 0 19 -30 34 29 117 34 28 -30 59 32 115 15 35 -30 21 53 -1.12
116 25 0 -31 1 5 16 33 18.4 38 120 -66 116 50 8 -31 7 47 115 59 44 -30 54 12 117 34 2 -31 19 9 115 14 57 -30 41 39 -1.12
116 24 19 -31 20 41 16 33 22.3 38 120 -66 116 49 29 -31 27 22 115 59 1 -31 13 50 117 33 27 -31 38 41 115 14 11 -31 1 20 -1.12
116 23 29 -31 40 14 16 33 26.1 38 120 -66 116 48 41 -31 46 53 115 58 9 -31 33 24 117 32 44 -31 58 10 115 13 15 -31 20 57 -1.12
116 22 31 -31 59 42 16 33 29.9 38 120 -65 116 47 46 -32 6 19 115 57 9 -31 52 54 117 31 53 -32 17 34 115 12 11 -31 40 30 -1.12
116 21 25 -32 19 6 16 33 33.7 39 120 -65 116 46 42 -32 25 42 115 56 0 -32 12 19 117 30 54 -32 36 54 115 10 58 -31 59 57 -1.12
116 20 10 -32 38 26 16 33 37.6 39 119 -65 116 45 30 -32 45 1 115 54 42 -32 31 40 117 29 46 -32 56 11 115 9 36 -32 19 21 -1.12
116 18 46 -32 57 42 16 33 41.4 39 119 -65 116 44 9 -33 4 15 115 53 16 -32 50 57 117 28 31 -33 15 23 115 8 5 -32 38 40 -1.12
116 17 14 -33 16 53 16 33 45.2 39 119 -64 116 42 40 -33 23 26 115 51 41 -33 10 10 117 27 7 -33 34 32 115 6 26 -32 57 55 -1.12
116 15 34 -33 36 2 16 33 49.1 39 119 -64 116 41 2 -33 42 33 115 49 58 -33 29 20 117 25 35 -33 53 38 115 4 37 -33 17 7 -1.12
116 13 45 -33 55 6 16 33 52.9 39 118 -64 116 39 17 -34 1 36 115 48 6 -33 48 25 117 23 55 -34 12 39 115 2 40 -33 36 14 -1.12
116 11 47 -34 14 6 16 33 56.7 39 118 -63 116 37 22 -34 20 36 115 46 5 -34 7 26 117 22 7 -34 31 38 115 0 34 -33 55 17 -1.12
116 9 41 -34 33 3 16 34 0.6 40 118 -63 116 35 20 -34 39 32 115 43 56 -34 26 24 117 20 10 -34 50 32 114 58 19 -34 14 16 -1.11
116 7 27 -34 51 57 16 34 4.4 40 118 -63 116 33 9 -34 58 25 115 41 38 -34 45 18 117 18 5 -35 9 24 114 55 55 -34 33 11 -1.11
116 5 3 -35 10 46 16 34 8.2 40 118 -62 116 30 49 -35 17 14 115 39 11 -35 4 9 117 15 52 -35 28 12 114 53 22 -34 52 3 -1.11
116 2 31 -35 29 33 16 34 12.0 40 117 -62 116 28 21 -35 36 0 115 36 35 -35 22 55 117 13 31 -35 46 56 114 50 40 -35 10 51 -1.11
115 59 51 -35 48 15 16 34 15.9 40 117 -62 116 25 44 -35 54 42 115 33 51 -35 41 39 117 11 1 -36 5 38 114 47 49 -35 29 36 -1.11
115 57 1 -36 6 55 16 34 19.7 40 117 -61 116 22 58 -36 13 21 115 30 57 -36 0 19 117 8 22 -36 24 16 114 44 49 -35 48 16 -1.11
115 54 3 -36 25 31 16 34 23.5 40 117 -61 116 20 4 -36 31 57 115 27 55 -36 18 55 117 5 35 -36 42 51 114 41 40 -36 6 54 -1.11
115 50 56 -36 44 4 16 34 27.4 40 116 -61 116 17 1 -36 50 29 115 24 44 -36 37 28 117 2 40 -37 1 24 114 38 22 -36 25 27 -1.11
115 47 40 -37 2 34 16 34 31.2 41 116 -61 116 13 49 -37 8 59 115 21 24 -36 55 58 116 59 36 -37 19 53 114 34 54 -36 43 58 -1.11
115 44 15 -37 21 0 16 34 35.0 41 116 -60 116 10 29 -37 27 25 115 17 54 -37 14 25 116 56 23 -37 38 19 114 31 17 -37 2 25 -1.11
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