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Updated: 2022 FEB 14, 19:21 UT
Event Rank : 92
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2022 Mar 06 UT, the 45.2 km diameter asteroid (856) Backlunda will occult a 11.7 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a narrow path across eastern Australia from near Orbost across eastern Victoria, central New South Wales and Queensland to west of Cooktown.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.87 mag to 14.50 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 10.420 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 1910-00531-1 by 856 Backlunda on 2022 Mar 6
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
154 14 7 -46 59 55 12 40 1.9 12 327 -35 153 37 15 -46 39 46 154 52 40 -47 21 7 153 2 54 -46 21 6 155 31 53 -47 42 48 -0.52
153 23 39 -45 47 48 12 40 10.7 14 327 -36 152 49 55 -45 29 41 153 58 37 -46 6 41 152 18 17 -45 12 47 154 33 52 -46 25 49 -0.52
152 40 28 -44 41 19 12 40 19.5 15 328 -37 152 9 6 -44 24 45 153 12 48 -44 58 30 151 39 33 -44 9 13 153 45 11 -45 15 48 -0.52
152 2 47 -43 39 15 12 40 28.3 16 328 -37 151 33 17 -43 23 54 152 33 5 -43 55 5 151 5 23 -43 9 27 153 3 17 -44 10 58 -0.53
151 29 23 -42 40 43 12 40 37.1 17 328 -38 151 1 24 -42 26 21 151 58 3 -42 55 29 150 34 51 -42 12 48 152 26 31 -43 10 15 -0.53
150 59 27 -41 45 8 12 40 45.9 18 329 -39 150 32 43 -41 31 36 151 26 46 -41 59 1 150 7 19 -41 18 48 151 53 49 -42 12 51 -0.53
150 32 23 -40 52 2 12 40 54.7 19 329 -39 150 6 43 -40 39 12 150 58 33 -41 5 11 149 42 16 -40 27 3 151 24 25 -41 18 14 -0.53
150 7 42 -40 1 6 12 41 3.5 20 329 -40 149 42 57 -39 48 53 150 32 53 -40 13 36 149 19 21 -39 37 17 150 57 45 -40 26 0 -0.53
149 45 4 -39 12 3 12 41 12.3 20 329 -41 149 21 7 -39 0 21 150 9 24 -39 24 0 148 58 15 -38 49 15 150 33 24 -39 35 50 -0.53
149 24 12 -38 24 40 12 41 21.1 21 329 -41 149 0 57 -38 13 26 149 47 48 -38 36 8 148 38 44 -38 2 45 150 11 1 -38 47 27 -0.53
149 4 52 -37 38 47 12 41 29.9 22 329 -42 148 42 15 -37 27 58 149 27 49 -37 49 48 148 20 37 -37 17 40 149 50 22 -38 0 41 -0.53
148 46 54 -36 54 13 12 41 38.7 23 330 -42 148 24 51 -36 43 46 149 9 15 -37 4 51 148 3 43 -36 33 49 149 31 12 -37 15 21 -0.53
148 30 8 -36 10 53 12 41 47.5 23 330 -43 148 8 35 -36 0 46 148 51 57 -36 21 10 147 47 56 -35 51 7 149 13 22 -36 31 18 -0.53
148 14 27 -35 28 38 12 41 56.3 24 330 -43 147 53 22 -35 18 50 148 35 47 -35 38 36 147 33 9 -35 9 29 148 56 43 -35 48 26 -0.53
147 59 44 -34 47 25 12 42 5.1 25 330 -44 147 39 4 -34 37 54 148 20 38 -34 57 6 147 19 15 -34 28 48 148 41 8 -35 6 38 -0.53
147 45 54 -34 7 8 12 42 13.9 26 330 -44 147 25 37 -33 57 52 148 6 24 -34 16 33 147 6 9 -33 49 0 148 26 29 -34 25 49 -0.53
147 32 52 -33 27 43 12 42 22.7 26 330 -45 147 12 56 -33 18 41 147 53 0 -33 36 53 146 53 48 -33 10 2 148 12 42 -33 45 55 -0.53
147 20 33 -32 49 6 12 42 31.5 27 330 -45 147 0 57 -32 40 17 147 40 21 -32 58 3 146 42 8 -32 31 50 147 59 43 -33 6 51 -0.53
147 8 55 -32 11 14 12 42 40.3 27 330 -45 146 49 37 -32 2 37 147 28 23 -32 19 59 146 31 5 -31 54 22 147 47 27 -32 28 34 -0.53
146 57 54 -31 34 4 12 42 49.1 28 330 -46 146 38 53 -31 25 38 147 17 5 -31 42 37 146 20 36 -31 17 33 147 35 50 -31 51 1 -0.53
146 47 27 -30 57 34 12 42 57.8 29 330 -46 146 28 42 -30 49 18 147 6 21 -31 5 56 146 10 40 -30 41 23 147 24 50 -31 14 9 -0.53
146 37 31 -30 21 40 12 43 6.6 29 330 -47 146 19 1 -30 13 34 146 56 10 -30 29 52 146 1 13 -30 5 49 147 14 24 -30 37 56 -0.53
146 28 5 -29 46 21 12 43 15.4 30 329 -47 146 9 49 -29 38 25 146 46 30 -29 54 24 145 52 14 -29 30 48 147 4 30 -30 2 18 -0.53
146 19 7 -29 11 36 12 43 24.2 30 329 -47 146 1 4 -29 3 48 146 37 18 -29 19 30 145 43 41 -28 56 19 146 55 4 -29 27 15 -0.53
146 10 34 -28 37 21 12 43 33.0 31 329 -48 145 52 43 -28 29 41 146 28 33 -28 45 7 145 35 32 -28 22 20 146 46 6 -28 52 44 -0.53
146 2 25 -28 3 37 12 43 41.8 31 329 -48 145 44 46 -27 56 4 146 20 12 -28 11 14 145 27 46 -27 48 50 146 37 34 -28 18 43 -0.53
145 54 39 -27 30 20 12 43 50.6 32 329 -49 145 37 11 -27 22 54 146 12 15 -27 37 50 145 20 21 -27 15 47 146 29 25 -27 45 12 -0.53
145 47 14 -26 57 30 12 43 59.4 32 329 -49 145 29 57 -26 50 11 146 4 39 -27 4 53 145 13 17 -26 43 10 146 21 39 -27 12 8 -0.53
145 40 10 -26 25 5 12 44 8.2 33 329 -49 145 23 2 -26 17 53 145 57 25 -26 32 22 145 6 31 -26 10 58 146 14 14 -26 39 30 -0.53
145 33 24 -25 53 5 12 44 17.0 33 329 -50 145 16 26 -25 45 58 145 50 29 -26 0 15 145 0 4 -25 39 10 146 7 10 -26 7 17 -0.53
145 26 57 -25 21 27 12 44 25.8 34 329 -50 145 10 7 -25 14 27 145 43 53 -25 28 32 144 53 54 -25 7 44 146 0 24 -25 35 28 -0.53
145 20 46 -24 50 12 12 44 34.6 34 329 -50 145 4 5 -24 43 18 145 37 34 -24 57 12 144 48 0 -24 36 39 145 53 56 -25 4 2 -0.53
145 14 52 -24 19 19 12 44 43.4 35 328 -51 144 58 19 -24 12 29 145 31 31 -24 26 12 144 42 21 -24 5 56 145 47 45 -24 32 58 -0.53
145 9 13 -23 48 45 12 44 52.2 35 328 -51 144 52 48 -23 42 1 145 25 45 -23 55 34 144 36 57 -23 35 32 145 41 51 -24 2 14 -0.53
145 3 49 -23 18 32 12 45 1.0 36 328 -51 144 47 31 -23 11 52 145 20 13 -23 25 15 144 31 47 -23 5 28 145 36 12 -23 31 51 -0.53
144 58 39 -22 48 37 12 45 9.8 36 328 -52 144 42 28 -22 42 1 145 14 56 -22 55 16 144 26 51 -22 35 42 145 30 48 -23 1 46 -0.53
144 53 43 -22 19 0 12 45 18.6 37 328 -52 144 37 38 -22 12 29 145 9 53 -22 25 34 144 22 7 -22 6 13 145 25 38 -22 32 0 -0.53
144 48 59 -21 49 40 12 45 27.4 37 328 -52 144 33 1 -21 43 13 145 5 2 -21 56 10 144 17 36 -21 37 2 145 20 41 -22 2 32 -0.53
144 44 28 -21 20 37 12 45 36.2 37 328 -53 144 28 36 -21 14 14 145 0 25 -21 27 3 144 13 17 -21 8 7 145 15 58 -21 33 21 -0.53
144 40 8 -20 51 50 12 45 45.0 38 327 -53 144 24 22 -20 45 31 144 56 0 -20 58 13 144 9 9 -20 39 27 145 11 26 -21 4 27 -0.54
144 36 0 -20 23 19 12 45 53.8 38 327 -53 144 20 20 -20 17 4 144 51 46 -20 29 38 144 5 12 -20 11 3 145 7 7 -20 35 48 -0.54
144 32 3 -19 55 3 12 46 2.6 39 327 -53 144 16 28 -19 48 51 144 47 43 -20 1 18 144 1 25 -19 42 54 145 2 59 -20 7 25 -0.54
144 28 17 -19 27 2 12 46 11.4 39 327 -54 144 12 47 -19 20 53 144 43 52 -19 33 13 143 57 49 -19 14 59 144 59 2 -19 39 17 -0.54
144 24 41 -18 59 14 12 46 20.2 39 327 -54 144 9 15 -18 53 9 144 40 10 -19 5 22 143 54 22 -18 47 18 144 55 16 -19 11 23 -0.54
144 21 14 -18 31 40 12 46 29.0 40 327 -54 144 5 54 -18 25 38 144 36 39 -18 37 45 143 51 5 -18 19 50 144 51 40 -18 43 42 -0.54
144 17 57 -18 4 19 12 46 37.8 40 326 -55 144 2 41 -17 58 20 144 33 17 -18 10 21 143 47 57 -17 52 35 144 48 13 -18 16 15 -0.54
144 14 50 -17 37 11 12 46 46.6 41 326 -55 143 59 38 -17 31 15 144 30 5 -17 43 10 143 44 58 -17 25 32 144 44 57 -17 49 1 -0.54
144 11 51 -17 10 15 12 46 55.4 41 326 -55 143 56 43 -17 4 22 144 27 2 -17 16 12 143 42 7 -16 58 42 144 41 49 -17 22 0 -0.54
144 9 1 -16 43 31 12 47 4.2 41 326 -55 143 53 57 -16 37 41 144 24 8 -16 49 25 143 39 25 -16 32 3 144 38 51 -16 55 11 -0.54
144 6 19 -16 16 59 12 47 13.0 42 326 -56 143 51 19 -16 11 11 144 21 22 -16 22 50 143 36 51 -16 5 36 144 36 1 -16 28 34 -0.54
144 3 45 -15 50 38 12 47 21.8 42 325 -56 143 48 49 -15 44 53 144 18 45 -15 56 27 143 34 24 -15 39 20 144 33 20 -16 2 8 -0.54
144 1 19 -15 24 28 12 47 30.6 42 325 -56 143 46 27 -15 18 45 144 16 15 -15 30 14 143 32 6 -15 13 15 144 30 47 -15 35 53 -0.54
143 59 1 -14 58 29 12 47 39.4 43 325 -56 143 44 13 -14 52 48 144 13 54 -15 4 13 143 29 54 -14 47 20 144 28 22 -15 9 49 -0.54
143 56 51 -14 32 40 12 47 48.2 43 325 -57 143 42 6 -14 27 1 144 11 40 -14 38 21 143 27 50 -14 21 35 144 26 5 -14 43 55 -0.54
143 54 48 -14 7 1 12 47 57.0 44 324 -57 143 40 6 -14 1 24 144 9 33 -14 12 40 143 25 53 -13 56 0 144 23 55 -14 18 12 -0.54
143 52 52 -13 41 31 12 48 5.8 44 324 -57 143 38 13 -13 35 57 144 7 34 -13 47 9 143 24 3 -13 30 35 144 21 53 -13 52 38 -0.55
143 51 3 -13 16 12 12 48 14.6 44 324 -57 143 36 27 -13 10 39 144 5 42 -13 21 47 143 22 20 -13 5 19 144 19 58 -13 27 15 -0.55
143 49 20 -12 51 1 12 48 23.4 45 324 -58 143 34 47 -12 45 30 144 3 57 -12 56 34 143 20 44 -12 40 12 144 18 9 -13 2 0 -0.55
143 47 45 -12 26 0 12 48 32.2 45 323 -58 143 33 14 -12 20 31 144 2 18 -12 31 31 143 19 13 -12 15 14 144 16 28 -12 36 55 -0.55
143 46 16 -12 1 7 12 48 41.0 45 323 -58 143 31 48 -11 55 40 144 0 47 -12 6 36 143 17 49 -11 50 25 144 14 54 -12 11 58 -0.55
143 44 53 -11 36 23 12 48 49.8 45 323 -58 143 30 28 -11 30 57 143 59 21 -11 41 50 143 16 32 -11 25 44 144 13 26 -11 47 11 -0.55
143 43 36 -11 11 47 12 48 58.6 46 323 -58 143 29 14 -11 6 23 143 58 2 -11 17 13 143 15 20 -11 1 11 144 12 4 -11 22 31 -0.55
143 42 26 -10 47 19 12 49 7.4 46 322 -59 143 28 6 -10 41 57 143 56 49 -10 52 43 143 14 14 -10 36 46 144 10 49 -10 58 0 -0.55
143 41 22 -10 22 59 12 49 16.2 46 322 -59 143 27 4 -10 17 38 143 55 43 -10 28 22 143 13 14 -10 12 29 144 9 40 -10 33 37 -0.55
143 40 23 - 9 58 47 12 49 25.0 47 322 -59 143 26 8 - 9 53 27 143 54 42 -10 4 8 143 12 20 - 9 48 20 144 8 37 -10 9 22 -0.55
143 39 31 - 9 34 42 12 49 33.8 47 322 -59 143 25 17 - 9 29 24 143 53 47 - 9 40 2 143 11 32 - 9 24 18 144 7 41 - 9 45 15 -0.55
143 38 44 - 9 10 45 12 49 42.6 47 321 -60 143 24 32 - 9 5 28 143 52 59 - 9 16 3 143 10 49 - 9 0 24 144 6 50 - 9 21 15 -0.55
143 38 3 - 8 46 55 12 49 51.4 48 321 -60 143 23 53 - 8 41 40 143 52 15 - 8 52 12 143 10 11 - 8 36 36 144 6 4 - 8 57 22 -0.55
143 37 27 - 8 23 11 12 50 0.2 48 321 -60 143 23 19 - 8 17 58 143 51 38 - 8 28 27 143 9 39 - 8 12 56 144 5 25 - 8 33 36 -0.56
143 36 57 - 7 59 35 12 50 9.0 48 320 -60 143 22 51 - 7 54 23 143 51 6 - 8 4 50 143 9 13 - 7 49 22 144 4 51 - 8 9 57 -0.56
143 36 32 - 7 36 6 12 50 17.8 48 320 -60 143 22 28 - 7 30 54 143 50 39 - 7 41 19 143 8 51 - 7 25 55 144 4 23 - 7 46 25 -0.56
143 36 12 - 7 12 42 12 50 26.6 49 320 -61 143 22 10 - 7 7 32 143 50 18 - 7 17 55 143 8 35 - 7 2 34 144 4 0 - 7 23 0 -0.56
143 35 58 - 6 49 26 12 50 35.4 49 319 -61 143 21 57 - 6 44 17 143 50 2 - 6 54 37 143 8 24 - 6 39 19 144 3 42 - 6 59 41 -0.56
143 35 49 - 6 26 15 12 50 44.2 49 319 -61 143 21 49 - 6 21 7 143 49 51 - 6 31 25 143 8 17 - 6 16 11 144 3 30 - 6 36 28 -0.56
143 35 45 - 6 3 11 12 50 53.0 50 319 -61 143 21 47 - 5 58 4 143 49 46 - 6 8 20 143 8 16 - 5 53 9 144 3 23 - 6 13 22 -0.56
143 35 46 - 5 40 13 12 51 1.8 50 318 -61 143 21 49 - 5 35 7 143 49 45 - 5 45 21 143 8 20 - 5 30 12 144 3 22 - 5 50 21 0.56
143 35 52 - 5 17 20 12 51 10.6 50 318 -61 143 21 57 - 5 12 15 143 49 50 - 5 22 27 143 8 29 - 5 7 21 144 3 25 - 5 27 27 0.56
143 36 3 - 4 54 33 12 51 19.4 50 318 -62 143 22 9 - 4 49 29 143 50 0 - 4 59 39 143 8 42 - 4 44 36 144 3 33 - 5 4 38 0.56
143 36 19 - 4 31 52 12 51 28.2 51 317 -62 143 22 26 - 4 26 49 143 50 15 - 4 36 57 143 9 1 - 4 21 57 144 3 47 - 4 41 55 0.56
143 36 40 - 4 9 16 12 51 37.0 51 317 -62 143 22 48 - 4 4 14 143 50 34 - 4 14 21 143 9 24 - 3 59 23 144 4 6 - 4 19 18 0.56
143 37 6 - 3 46 46 12 51 45.8 51 317 -62 143 23 15 - 3 41 44 143 50 59 - 3 51 49 143 9 52 - 3 36 54 144 4 29 - 3 56 46 0.57
143 37 36 - 3 24 21 12 51 54.6 51 316 -62 143 23 47 - 3 19 20 143 51 29 - 3 29 23 143 10 24 - 3 14 30 144 4 57 - 3 34 19 0.57
143 38 12 - 3 2 1 12 52 3.4 52 316 -62 143 24 23 - 2 57 1 143 52 3 - 3 7 3 143 11 1 - 2 52 12 144 5 31 - 3 11 57 0.57
143 38 52 - 2 39 46 12 52 12.2 52 316 -63 143 25 4 - 2 34 47 143 52 42 - 2 44 47 143 11 43 - 2 29 58 144 6 9 - 2 49 41 0.57
143 39 37 - 2 17 36 12 52 21.0 52 315 -63 143 25 49 - 2 12 37 143 53 26 - 2 22 36 143 12 30 - 2 7 50 144 6 52 - 2 27 29 0.57
143 40 26 - 1 55 30 12 52 29.8 52 315 -63 143 26 40 - 1 50 33 143 54 14 - 2 0 30 143 13 21 - 1 45 46 144 7 40 - 2 5 23 0.57
143 41 20 - 1 33 30 12 52 38.6 52 314 -63 143 27 35 - 1 28 33 143 55 8 - 1 38 29 143 14 16 - 1 23 46 144 8 32 - 1 43 21 0.57
143 42 19 - 1 11 34 12 52 47.4 53 314 -63 143 28 34 - 1 6 37 143 56 6 - 1 16 32 143 15 16 - 1 1 52 144 9 29 - 1 21 24 0.57
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2022 Feb 14.8
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