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Updated: 2021 Dec 31, 01:53 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2022 Feb 25 UT, the 99 km diameter asteroid (206) Hersilia will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Leo for observers along a path across New Zealand, southern New South Wales and central South Australia, passing over Oamaru, Wollongong, Canberra, Forbes and Broken Hill.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by only 0.7 mag to 12.35 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.4 seconds. This event may be difficult to observe visually.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 0847-00475-1 by 206 Hersilia on 2022 Feb 25
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
172 46 48 -46 5 3 11 4 27.9 29 35 -31 171 58 9 -46 48 58 173 32 56 -45 22 4 171 51 11 -46 55 9 173 39 10 -45 16 10 1.76
172 31 11 -45 54 42 11 4 30.2 29 35 -31 171 42 32 -46 38 28 173 17 20 -45 11 52 171 35 34 -46 44 38 173 23 34 -45 5 59 1.75
172 15 34 -45 44 25 11 4 32.5 29 36 -31 171 26 55 -46 28 2 173 1 44 -45 1 43 171 19 57 -46 34 10 173 7 58 -44 55 51 1.75
171 59 57 -45 34 12 11 4 34.7 29 36 -31 171 11 18 -46 17 39 172 46 7 -44 51 38 171 4 20 -46 23 47 172 52 22 -44 45 47 1.75
171 44 20 -45 24 1 11 4 37.0 30 36 -31 170 55 41 -46 7 21 172 30 31 -44 41 36 170 48 42 -46 13 26 172 36 46 -44 35 46 1.75
171 28 43 -45 13 54 11 4 39.3 30 36 -31 170 40 3 -45 57 5 172 14 55 -44 31 37 170 33 4 -46 3 10 172 21 10 -44 25 48 1.75
171 13 5 -45 3 51 11 4 41.6 30 37 -31 170 24 24 -45 46 54 171 59 19 -44 21 41 170 17 26 -45 52 57 172 5 33 -44 15 53 1.75
170 57 27 -44 53 51 11 4 43.9 30 37 -31 170 8 46 -45 36 45 171 43 42 -44 11 48 170 1 47 -45 42 47 171 49 57 -44 6 2 1.75
170 41 49 -44 43 54 11 4 46.2 30 37 -31 169 53 6 -45 26 40 171 28 5 -44 1 59 169 46 8 -45 32 41 171 34 21 -43 56 13 1.75
170 26 10 -44 34 0 11 4 48.4 30 38 -31 169 37 27 -45 16 39 171 12 28 -43 52 12 169 30 28 -45 22 39 171 18 44 -43 46 28 1.75
170 10 31 -44 24 9 11 4 50.7 30 38 -31 169 21 46 -45 6 41 170 56 51 -43 42 29 169 14 47 -45 12 39 171 3 7 -43 36 45 1.75
169 54 52 -44 14 22 11 4 53.0 30 38 -31 169 6 5 -44 56 46 170 41 13 -43 32 49 168 59 6 -45 2 44 170 47 29 -43 27 6 1.75
169 39 11 -44 4 38 11 4 55.3 30 39 -32 168 50 23 -44 46 54 170 25 35 -43 23 11 168 43 23 -44 52 51 170 31 51 -43 17 29 1.75
169 23 30 -43 54 56 11 4 57.6 30 39 -32 168 34 40 -44 37 6 170 9 56 -43 13 37 168 27 40 -44 43 1 170 16 13 -43 7 56 1.75
169 7 48 -43 45 18 11 4 59.9 30 39 -32 168 18 56 -44 27 21 169 54 16 -43 4 5 168 11 56 -44 33 15 170 0 33 -42 58 25 1.75
168 52 6 -43 35 43 11 5 2.1 30 40 -32 168 3 11 -44 17 39 169 38 36 -42 54 37 167 56 11 -44 23 32 169 44 54 -42 48 58 1.75
168 36 22 -43 26 11 11 5 4.4 30 40 -32 167 47 25 -44 8 0 169 22 55 -42 45 11 167 40 25 -44 13 52 169 29 13 -42 39 33 1.75
168 20 38 -43 16 42 11 5 6.7 30 40 -32 167 31 38 -43 58 24 169 7 13 -42 35 48 167 24 37 -44 4 16 169 13 32 -42 30 11 1.75
168 4 52 -43 7 16 11 5 9.0 30 41 -32 167 15 50 -43 48 51 168 51 31 -42 26 28 167 8 49 -43 54 42 168 57 49 -42 20 52 1.75
167 49 5 -42 57 52 11 5 11.3 30 41 -32 167 0 0 -43 39 22 168 35 47 -42 17 11 166 52 59 -43 45 12 168 42 6 -42 11 35 1.75
167 33 18 -42 48 32 11 5 13.6 30 41 -32 166 44 9 -43 29 55 168 20 3 -42 7 56 166 37 7 -43 35 44 168 26 22 -42 2 21 1.75
167 17 29 -42 39 15 11 5 15.8 30 41 -32 166 28 17 -43 20 31 168 4 17 -41 58 45 166 21 15 -43 26 20 168 10 37 -41 53 11 1.75
167 1 38 -42 30 0 11 5 18.1 30 42 -32 166 12 23 -43 11 11 167 48 30 -41 49 36 166 5 20 -43 16 58 167 54 50 -41 44 2 1.75
166 45 46 -42 20 48 11 5 20.4 30 42 -32 165 56 28 -43 1 53 167 32 42 -41 40 30 165 49 25 -43 7 39 167 39 3 -41 34 57 1.75
166 29 53 -42 11 39 11 5 22.7 30 42 -32 165 40 31 -42 52 38 167 16 52 -41 31 26 165 33 27 -42 58 24 167 23 14 -41 25 54 1.75
166 13 59 -42 2 33 11 5 25.0 30 43 -32 165 24 32 -42 43 26 167 1 2 -41 22 25 165 17 28 -42 49 11 167 7 24 -41 16 54 1.75
165 58 2 -41 53 29 11 5 27.2 30 43 -32 165 8 32 -42 34 17 166 45 10 -41 13 27 165 1 27 -42 40 1 166 51 32 -41 7 56 1.75
165 42 5 -41 44 28 11 5 29.5 30 43 -32 164 52 30 -42 25 11 166 29 16 -41 4 31 164 45 24 -42 30 54 166 35 39 -40 59 1 1.75
165 26 5 -41 35 30 11 5 31.8 30 44 -32 164 36 26 -42 16 8 166 13 21 -40 55 38 164 29 19 -42 21 50 166 19 45 -40 50 9 1.75
165 10 4 -41 26 35 11 5 34.1 30 44 -32 164 20 20 -42 7 7 165 57 24 -40 46 48 164 13 12 -42 12 49 166 3 48 -40 41 19 1.75
155 55 51 -36 55 53 11 6 49.4 27 54 -30 155 1 10 -37 34 34 156 47 46 -36 17 53 154 53 20 -37 40 0 156 54 47 -36 12 40 1.74
155 37 58 -36 48 22 11 6 51.7 27 54 -30 154 43 2 -37 27 2 156 30 6 -36 10 25 154 35 10 -37 32 28 156 37 9 -36 5 11 1.74
155 20 0 -36 40 54 11 6 54.0 27 54 -30 154 24 49 -37 19 32 156 12 22 -36 2 58 154 16 55 -37 24 58 156 19 26 -35 57 45 1.74
155 1 56 -36 33 29 11 6 56.3 27 55 -30 154 6 30 -37 12 5 155 54 32 -35 55 34 153 58 34 -37 17 31 156 1 39 -35 50 21 1.74
154 43 48 -36 26 6 11 6 58.6 27 55 -30 153 48 6 -37 4 41 155 36 38 -35 48 12 153 40 6 -37 10 7 155 43 46 -35 43 0 1.74
154 25 33 -36 18 45 11 7 0.8 27 55 -30 153 29 35 -36 57 20 155 18 38 -35 40 53 153 21 33 -37 2 45 155 25 48 -35 35 40 1.74
154 7 13 -36 11 27 11 7 3.1 27 56 -30 153 10 57 -36 50 1 155 0 33 -35 33 36 153 2 53 -36 55 26 155 7 45 -35 28 24 1.74
153 48 47 -36 4 12 11 7 5.4 26 56 -30 152 52 13 -36 42 44 154 42 23 -35 26 22 152 44 6 -36 48 9 154 49 37 -35 21 9 1.74
153 30 14 -35 56 59 11 7 7.7 26 56 -30 152 33 23 -36 35 31 154 24 7 -35 19 9 152 25 13 -36 40 55 154 31 23 -35 13 57 1.74
153 11 35 -35 49 48 11 7 10.0 26 57 -30 152 14 25 -36 28 19 154 5 45 -35 12 0 152 6 13 -36 33 44 154 13 3 -35 6 47 1.74
152 52 50 -35 42 40 11 7 12.2 26 57 -29 151 55 21 -36 21 11 153 47 17 -35 4 52 151 47 5 -36 26 36 153 54 37 -34 59 40 1.74
152 33 58 -35 35 35 11 7 14.5 26 57 -29 151 36 9 -36 14 5 153 28 43 -34 57 47 151 27 50 -36 19 30 153 36 6 -34 52 35 1.74
152 14 59 -35 28 32 11 7 16.8 26 57 -29 151 16 49 -36 7 2 153 10 2 -34 50 45 151 8 28 -36 12 27 153 17 28 -34 45 33 1.74
151 55 53 -35 21 31 11 7 19.1 26 58 -29 150 57 22 -36 0 2 152 51 15 -34 43 45 150 48 57 -36 5 27 152 58 43 -34 38 33 1.74
151 36 40 -35 14 34 11 7 21.4 25 58 -29 150 37 46 -35 53 4 152 32 21 -34 36 47 150 29 19 -35 58 29 152 39 52 -34 31 36 1.74
151 17 19 -35 7 39 11 7 23.7 25 58 -29 150 18 3 -35 46 10 152 13 21 -34 29 52 150 9 32 -35 51 35 152 20 54 -34 24 41 1.74
150 57 51 -35 0 46 11 7 25.9 25 59 -29 149 58 11 -35 39 18 151 54 13 -34 23 0 149 49 36 -35 44 43 152 1 49 -34 17 48 1.74
150 38 14 -34 53 57 11 7 28.2 25 59 -28 149 38 10 -35 32 29 151 34 58 -34 16 10 149 29 31 -35 37 54 151 42 37 -34 10 58 1.74
150 18 29 -34 47 10 11 7 30.5 25 59 -28 149 17 59 -35 25 42 151 15 35 -34 9 22 149 9 17 -35 31 8 151 23 17 -34 4 11 1.74
149 58 36 -34 40 25 11 7 32.8 25 59 -28 148 57 40 -35 18 59 150 56 5 -34 2 38 148 48 54 -35 24 24 151 3 49 -33 57 26 1.74
149 38 34 -34 33 44 11 7 35.1 24 60 -28 148 37 11 -35 12 18 150 36 27 -33 55 55 148 28 20 -35 17 44 150 44 14 -33 50 43 1.74
149 18 22 -34 27 5 11 7 37.4 24 60 -28 148 16 31 -35 5 41 150 16 40 -33 49 16 148 7 37 -35 11 7 150 24 31 -33 44 4 1.74
148 58 2 -34 20 29 11 7 39.6 24 60 -28 147 55 41 -34 59 7 149 56 45 -33 42 39 147 46 42 -35 4 33 150 4 39 -33 37 27 1.74
148 37 31 -34 13 56 11 7 41.9 24 61 -28 147 34 41 -34 52 35 149 36 40 -33 36 4 147 25 37 -34 58 2 149 44 38 -33 30 52 1.74
148 16 51 -34 7 26 11 7 44.2 24 61 -27 147 13 29 -34 46 7 149 16 27 -33 29 33 147 4 21 -34 51 34 149 24 28 -33 24 20 1.74
147 56 0 -34 0 59 11 7 46.5 24 61 -27 146 52 5 -34 39 42 148 56 5 -33 23 4 146 42 52 -34 45 9 149 4 9 -33 17 52 1.74
147 34 58 -33 54 35 11 7 48.8 23 61 -27 146 30 30 -34 33 20 148 35 32 -33 16 38 146 21 12 -34 38 48 148 43 41 -33 11 25 1.74
147 13 46 -33 48 13 11 7 51.1 23 62 -27 146 8 42 -34 27 1 148 14 50 -33 10 15 145 59 19 -34 32 29 148 23 2 -33 5 2 1.74
146 52 21 -33 41 55 11 7 53.3 23 62 -27 145 46 41 -34 20 46 147 53 57 -33 3 55 145 37 12 -34 26 15 148 2 14 -32 58 41 1.74
146 30 45 -33 35 40 11 7 55.6 23 62 -26 145 24 27 -34 14 34 147 32 54 -32 57 37 145 14 52 -34 20 3 147 41 14 -32 52 24 1.74
146 8 56 -33 29 28 11 7 57.9 23 63 -26 145 1 58 -34 8 26 147 11 39 -32 51 23 144 52 17 -34 13 55 147 20 4 -32 46 9 1.74
145 46 55 -33 23 20 11 8 0.2 22 63 -26 144 39 15 -34 2 21 146 50 13 -32 45 12 144 29 28 -34 7 51 146 58 42 -32 39 58 1.74
145 24 40 -33 17 15 11 8 2.5 22 63 -26 144 16 17 -33 56 20 146 28 35 -32 39 4 144 6 23 -34 1 50 146 37 9 -32 33 49 1.74
145 2 11 -33 11 13 11 8 4.7 22 63 -26 143 53 3 -33 50 22 146 6 44 -32 32 58 143 43 2 -33 55 54 146 15 23 -32 27 43 1.75
144 39 27 -33 5 15 11 8 7.0 22 64 -25 143 29 32 -33 44 29 145 44 41 -32 26 57 143 19 24 -33 50 1 145 53 25 -32 21 41 1.75
144 16 29 -32 59 20 11 8 9.3 21 64 -25 143 5 44 -33 38 39 145 22 24 -32 20 58 142 55 28 -33 44 12 145 31 13 -32 15 42 1.75
143 53 14 -32 53 29 11 8 11.6 21 64 -25 142 41 38 -33 32 53 144 59 53 -32 15 3 142 31 14 -33 38 27 145 8 48 -32 9 46 1.75
143 29 43 -32 47 42 11 8 13.9 21 65 -25 142 17 13 -33 27 12 144 37 8 -32 9 11 142 6 41 -33 32 46 144 46 8 -32 3 54 1.75
143 5 55 -32 41 58 11 8 16.2 21 65 -25 141 52 28 -33 21 34 144 14 7 -32 3 22 141 41 47 -33 27 10 144 23 14 -31 58 5 1.75
142 41 49 -32 36 19 11 8 18.4 20 65 -24 141 27 22 -33 16 2 143 50 51 -31 57 38 141 16 31 -33 21 38 144 0 4 -31 52 19 1.75
142 17 24 -32 30 43 11 8 20.7 20 66 -24 141 1 54 -33 10 33 143 27 19 -31 51 56 140 50 53 -33 16 11 143 36 38 -31 46 38 1.75
141 52 40 -32 25 12 11 8 23.0 20 66 -24 140 36 2 -33 5 10 143 3 29 -31 46 19 140 24 52 -33 10 49 143 12 55 -31 41 0 1.75
141 27 34 -32 19 45 11 8 25.3 20 66 -24 140 9 47 -32 59 51 142 39 21 -31 40 46 139 58 25 -33 5 32 142 48 55 -31 35 25 1.75
141 2 7 -32 14 23 11 8 27.6 19 66 -23 139 43 5 -32 54 38 142 14 55 -31 35 16 139 31 32 -33 0 20 142 24 36 -31 29 55 1.75
140 36 17 -32 9 5 11 8 29.9 19 67 -23 139 15 56 -32 49 30 141 50 8 -31 29 51 139 4 10 -32 55 13 141 59 57 -31 24 29 1.75
140 10 2 -32 3 52 11 8 32.1 19 67 -23 138 48 18 -32 44 28 141 25 1 -31 24 30 138 36 18 -32 50 13 141 34 59 -31 19 7 1.75
139 43 22 -31 58 44 11 8 34.4 18 67 -22 138 20 8 -32 39 31 140 59 33 -31 19 14 138 7 55 -32 45 18 141 9 39 -31 13 50 1.75
139 16 15 -31 53 42 11 8 36.7 18 68 -22 137 51 26 -32 34 41 140 33 41 -31 14 2 137 38 57 -32 40 30 140 43 57 -31 8 37 1.75
138 48 39 -31 48 45 11 8 39.0 18 68 -22 137 22 8 -32 29 57 140 7 25 -31 8 55 137 9 23 -32 35 48 140 17 51 -31 3 28 1.75
138 20 32 -31 43 54 11 8 41.3 17 68 -22 136 52 13 -32 25 20 139 40 44 -31 3 53 136 39 10 -32 31 14 139 51 20 -30 58 25 1.75
137 51 53 -31 39 8 11 8 43.6 17 69 -21 136 21 36 -32 20 51 139 13 36 -30 58 56 136 8 14 -32 26 47 139 24 23 -30 53 27 1.76
137 22 39 -31 34 30 11 8 45.8 17 69 -21 135 50 15 -32 16 29 138 45 59 -30 54 4 135 36 33 -32 22 28 138 56 58 -30 48 34 1.76
136 52 47 -31 29 58 11 8 48.1 16 69 -21 135 18 7 -32 12 16 138 17 51 -30 49 19 135 4 2 -32 18 18 138 29 3 -30 43 46 1.76
136 22 16 -31 25 33 11 8 50.4 16 70 -20 134 45 6 -32 8 11 137 49 12 -30 44 39 134 30 37 -32 14 17 138 0 36 -30 39 5 1.76
135 51 0 -31 21 16 11 8 52.7 16 70 -20 134 11 9 -32 4 17 137 19 57 -30 40 5 133 56 12 -32 10 26 137 31 36 -30 34 29 1.76
135 18 58 -31 17 7 11 8 55.0 15 70 -19 133 36 8 -32 0 33 136 50 5 -30 35 39 133 20 41 -32 6 46 137 2 0 -30 30 1 1.76
134 46 5 -31 13 7 11 8 57.2 15 71 -19 132 59 58 -31 57 0 136 19 34 -30 31 19 132 43 57 -32 3 19 136 31 45 -30 25 39 1.76
134 12 16 -31 9 16 11 8 59.5 14 71 -19 132 22 30 -31 53 41 135 48 19 -30 27 7 132 5 51 -32 0 5 136 0 49 -30 21 24 1.77
133 37 25 -31 5 36 11 9 1.8 14 71 -18 131 43 35 -31 50 35 135 16 18 -30 23 3 131 26 13 -31 57 6 135 29 7 -30 17 18 1.77
133 1 27 -31 2 7 11 9 4.1 13 72 -18 131 3 1 -31 47 46 134 43 26 -30 19 8 130 44 49 -31 54 23 134 56 37 -30 13 19 1.77
132 24 13 -30 58 51 11 9 6.4 13 72 -17 130 20 32 -31 45 15 134 9 39 -30 15 22 130 1 22 -31 52 1 134 23 13 -30 9 30 1.77
131 45 34 -30 55 48 11 9 8.7 12 72 -17 129 35 50 -31 43 5 133 34 51 -30 11 47 129 15 32 -31 50 1 133 48 51 -30 5 51 1.78
131 5 19 -30 53 1 11 9 10.9 12 73 -16 128 48 30 -31 41 20 132 58 56 -30 8 22 128 26 49 -31 48 28 133 13 24 -30 2 23 1.78
130 23 13 -30 50 32 11 9 13.2 11 73 -16 127 57 58 -31 40 5 132 21 46 -30 5 10 127 34 34 -31 47 28 132 36 47 -29 59 6 1.78
129 38 59 -30 48 22 11 9 15.5 11 73 -15 127 3 26 -31 39 26 131 43 13 -30 2 11 126 37 50 -31 47 9 131 58 50 -29 56 2 1.79
128 52 14 -30 46 37 11 9 17.8 10 74 -15 126 3 43 -31 39 35 131 3 5 -29 59 28 125 35 10 -31 47 44 131 19 23 -29 53 13 1.80
128 2 27 -30 45 20 11 9 20.1 9 74 -14 124 56 53 -31 40 49 130 21 9 -29 57 2 124 24 1 -31 49 36 130 38 13 -29 50 40 1.80
127 8 54 -30 44 37 11 9 22.4 9 75 -13 123 39 24 -31 43 39 129 37 7 -29 54 56 122 59 25 -31 53 29 129 55 7 -29 48 26 1.81
126 10 32 -30 44 39 11 9 24.6 8 75 -12 122 3 14 -31 49 16 128 50 37 -29 53 13 121 7 52 -32 1 23 129 9 42 -29 46 33 1.83
125 5 40 -30 45 40 11 9 26.9 7 76 -12 119 37 1 -32 2 20 128 1 10 -29 51 57 ... .. .. .. .. .. 128 21 34 -29 45 6 1.85
123 51 20 -30 48 6 11 9 29.2 6 77 -11 ... .. .. .. .. .. 127 8 4 -29 51 15 ... .. .. .. .. .. 127 30 7 -29 44 9 1.89
122 21 19 -30 52 54 11 9 31.5 5 77 -9 ... .. .. .. .. .. 126 10 20 -29 51 16 ... .. .. .. .. .. 126 34 30 -29 43 51 1.97
120 16 13 -31 2 54 11 9 33.8 3 78 -7 ... .. .. .. .. .. 125 6 24 -29 52 13 ... .. .. .. .. .. 125 33 27 -29 44 23 2.25
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