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Updated: 2021 Nov 09, 04:46 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Dec 25 UT, the 99 km diameter asteroid (554) Peraga will occult a 11.4 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across northern Tasmania and southern Victoria, passing over Portland.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by only 0.7 mag to 11.31 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 12.1 seconds. This event may be difficult to observe visually.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 1895-01272-1 by 554 Peraga on 2021 Dec 25
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
168 54 32 -47 13 52 16 15 48.8 10 322 -5 171 19 16 -49 34 7 167 15 22 -45 23 0 171 42 54 -49 54 56 167 5 6 -45 10 43 1.84
168 7 14 -46 52 48 16 15 52.0 10 323 -6 170 16 9 -49 3 39 166 35 17 -45 6 12 170 36 17 -49 22 24 166 25 39 -44 54 18 1.85
167 22 29 -46 33 12 16 15 55.1 11 324 -6 169 19 5 -48 36 43 165 56 41 -44 50 18 169 36 44 -48 53 59 165 47 37 -44 38 44 1.85
166 39 51 -46 14 53 16 15 58.3 11 324 -7 168 26 31 -48 12 26 165 19 25 -44 35 12 168 42 18 -48 28 34 165 10 50 -44 23 55 1.86
165 59 3 -45 57 38 16 16 1.5 12 325 -7 167 37 29 -47 50 14 164 43 19 -44 20 47 167 51 47 -48 5 29 164 35 11 -44 9 47 1.86
165 19 51 -45 41 21 16 16 4.6 12 325 -8 166 51 18 -47 29 43 164 8 17 -44 7 1 167 4 24 -47 44 15 164 0 33 -43 56 15 1.87
164 42 3 -45 25 55 16 16 7.8 13 326 -8 166 7 30 -47 10 38 163 34 12 -43 53 50 166 19 36 -47 24 33 163 26 50 -43 43 17 1.87
152 17 38 -41 14 56 16 17 30.2 21 336 -17 152 48 1 -42 25 43 151 50 29 -40 7 42 152 51 58 -42 34 36 151 47 23 -39 59 45 1.89
151 53 55 -41 8 37 16 17 33.4 21 336 -17 152 23 27 -42 18 54 151 27 30 -40 1 49 152 27 17 -42 27 42 151 24 28 -39 53 55 1.89
151 30 25 -41 2 28 16 17 36.5 21 336 -18 151 59 7 -42 12 15 151 4 41 -39 56 4 152 2 51 -42 20 59 151 1 44 -39 48 13 1.89
151 7 6 -40 56 28 16 17 39.7 21 337 -18 151 35 2 -42 5 46 150 42 3 -39 50 28 151 38 39 -42 14 27 150 39 10 -39 42 39 1.89
150 44 0 -40 50 37 16 17 42.9 22 337 -18 151 11 10 -41 59 28 150 19 35 -39 45 0 151 14 40 -42 8 5 150 16 46 -39 37 13 1.89
150 21 4 -40 44 54 16 17 46.0 22 337 -18 150 47 30 -41 53 19 149 57 16 -39 39 39 150 50 55 -42 1 53 149 54 32 -39 31 55 1.89
149 58 19 -40 39 20 16 17 49.2 22 338 -19 150 24 3 -41 47 20 149 35 8 -39 34 27 150 27 22 -41 55 50 149 32 28 -39 26 45 1.89
149 35 44 -40 33 55 16 17 52.4 22 338 -19 150 0 47 -41 41 31 149 13 8 -39 29 21 150 4 2 -41 49 57 149 10 32 -39 21 42 1.89
149 13 20 -40 28 37 16 17 55.6 22 338 -19 149 37 43 -41 35 50 148 51 18 -39 24 23 149 40 52 -41 44 13 148 48 45 -39 16 46 1.89
148 51 4 -40 23 27 16 17 58.7 22 339 -19 149 14 50 -41 30 18 148 29 35 -39 19 32 149 17 54 -41 38 38 148 27 7 -39 11 57 1.89
148 28 58 -40 18 25 16 18 1.9 23 339 -19 148 52 7 -41 24 54 148 8 1 -39 14 48 148 55 6 -41 33 12 148 5 36 -39 7 15 1.89
148 7 1 -40 13 30 16 18 5.1 23 339 -20 148 29 34 -41 19 39 147 46 35 -39 10 11 148 32 28 -41 27 54 147 44 14 -39 2 40 1.89
147 45 12 -40 8 42 16 18 8.2 23 340 -20 148 7 10 -41 14 31 147 25 16 -39 5 40 148 10 0 -41 22 43 147 22 59 -38 58 11 1.89
147 23 31 -40 4 2 16 18 11.4 23 340 -20 147 44 56 -41 9 31 147 4 5 -39 1 16 147 47 41 -41 17 41 147 1 51 -38 53 49 1.89
147 1 59 -39 59 28 16 18 14.6 23 340 -20 147 22 51 -41 4 39 146 43 1 -38 56 58 147 25 32 -41 12 47 146 40 50 -38 49 32 1.89
146 40 34 -39 55 1 16 18 17.7 23 340 -20 147 0 54 -40 59 55 146 22 4 -38 52 46 147 3 31 -41 8 0 146 19 56 -38 45 23 1.89
146 19 16 -39 50 41 16 18 20.9 24 341 -21 146 39 5 -40 55 17 146 1 13 -38 48 41 146 41 38 -41 3 20 145 59 8 -38 41 19 1.89
145 58 5 -39 46 27 16 18 24.1 24 341 -21 146 17 25 -40 50 47 145 40 29 -38 44 41 146 19 54 -40 58 47 145 38 27 -38 37 21 1.89
145 37 1 -39 42 20 16 18 27.2 24 341 -21 145 55 52 -40 46 23 145 19 51 -38 40 48 145 58 17 -40 54 22 145 17 52 -38 33 28 1.89
145 16 4 -39 38 18 16 18 30.4 24 342 -21 145 34 26 -40 42 7 144 59 19 -38 37 0 145 36 47 -40 50 3 144 57 23 -38 29 42 1.89
144 55 13 -39 34 23 16 18 33.6 24 342 -21 145 13 7 -40 37 57 144 38 52 -38 33 17 145 15 25 -40 45 51 144 36 59 -38 26 1 1.89
144 34 28 -39 30 34 16 18 36.7 24 342 -22 144 51 56 -40 33 53 144 18 32 -38 29 40 144 54 10 -40 41 46 144 16 41 -38 22 26 1.89
144 13 50 -39 26 50 16 18 39.9 25 343 -22 144 30 50 -40 29 56 143 58 17 -38 26 9 144 33 1 -40 37 47 143 56 29 -38 18 56 1.89
143 53 16 -39 23 13 16 18 43.1 25 343 -22 144 9 52 -40 26 5 143 38 6 -38 22 43 144 11 59 -40 33 54 143 36 21 -38 15 31 1.89
143 32 49 -39 19 41 16 18 46.3 25 343 -22 143 48 59 -40 22 20 143 18 2 -38 19 22 143 51 3 -40 30 7 143 16 19 -38 12 11 1.89
143 12 27 -39 16 15 16 18 49.4 25 344 -22 143 28 12 -40 18 41 142 58 1 -38 16 7 143 30 13 -40 26 27 142 56 21 -38 8 57 1.89
142 52 10 -39 12 54 16 18 52.6 25 344 -22 143 7 31 -40 15 8 142 38 6 -38 12 56 143 9 29 -40 22 52 142 36 28 -38 5 48 1.89
142 31 58 -39 9 38 16 18 55.8 25 344 -23 142 46 56 -40 11 41 142 18 15 -38 9 51 142 48 50 -40 19 24 142 16 40 -38 2 44 1.89
142 11 51 -39 6 28 16 18 58.9 25 345 -23 142 26 26 -40 8 20 141 58 29 -38 6 51 142 28 17 -40 16 1 141 56 56 -37 59 45 1.89
141 51 49 -39 3 23 16 19 2.1 25 345 -23 142 6 1 -40 5 4 141 38 47 -38 3 55 142 7 49 -40 12 43 141 37 16 -37 56 50 1.89
141 31 51 -39 0 23 16 19 5.3 25 345 -23 141 45 41 -40 1 54 141 19 9 -38 1 5 141 47 26 -40 9 32 141 17 41 -37 54 1 1.89
141 11 57 -38 57 29 16 19 8.4 26 345 -23 141 25 25 -39 58 49 140 59 35 -37 58 19 141 27 8 -40 6 26 140 58 9 -37 51 16 1.89
140 52 8 -38 54 39 16 19 11.6 26 346 -23 141 5 15 -39 55 49 140 40 5 -37 55 38 141 6 55 -40 3 25 140 38 42 -37 48 36 1.89
140 32 23 -38 51 54 16 19 14.8 26 346 -24 140 45 9 -39 52 55 140 20 39 -37 53 1 140 46 46 -40 0 29 140 19 18 -37 46 0 1.89
140 12 42 -38 49 14 16 19 17.9 26 346 -24 140 25 7 -39 50 6 140 1 17 -37 50 29 140 26 42 -39 57 39 139 59 57 -37 43 29 1.89
139 53 5 -38 46 39 16 19 21.1 26 347 -24 140 5 9 -39 47 22 139 41 58 -37 48 2 140 6 42 -39 54 54 139 40 40 -37 41 3 1.89
139 33 31 -38 44 9 16 19 24.3 26 347 -24 139 45 16 -39 44 43 139 22 42 -37 45 39 139 46 46 -39 52 14 139 21 27 -37 38 41 1.89
139 14 1 -38 41 43 16 19 27.5 26 347 -24 139 25 26 -39 42 9 139 3 30 -37 43 21 139 26 53 -39 49 39 139 2 16 -37 36 23 1.89
138 54 34 -38 39 22 16 19 30.6 26 348 -24 139 5 40 -39 39 41 138 44 20 -37 41 7 139 7 5 -39 47 9 138 43 9 -37 34 10 1.89
138 35 11 -38 37 6 16 19 33.8 26 348 -24 138 45 58 -39 37 17 138 25 14 -37 38 57 138 47 20 -39 44 44 138 24 5 -37 32 1 1.89
138 15 50 -38 34 54 16 19 37.0 26 348 -25 138 26 19 -39 34 57 138 6 11 -37 36 52 138 27 39 -39 42 24 138 5 4 -37 29 56 1.89
137 56 33 -38 32 47 16 19 40.1 27 349 -25 138 6 43 -39 32 43 137 47 11 -37 34 50 138 8 1 -39 40 9 137 46 5 -37 27 56 1.89
133 12 15 -38 9 30 16 20 27.7 27 353 -26 133 18 14 -39 8 10 133 6 42 -37 12 42 133 19 0 -39 15 26 133 6 3 -37 5 55 1.88
132 53 33 -38 8 30 16 20 30.8 28 353 -26 132 59 17 -39 7 6 132 48 14 -37 11 44 133 0 1 -39 14 22 132 47 37 -37 4 58 1.88
132 34 53 -38 7 33 16 20 34.0 28 354 -26 132 40 22 -39 6 7 132 29 48 -37 10 51 132 41 3 -39 13 22 132 29 13 -37 4 5 1.88
132 16 14 -38 6 41 16 20 37.2 28 354 -27 132 21 28 -39 5 11 132 11 23 -37 10 1 132 22 7 -39 12 26 132 10 49 -37 3 15 1.88
131 57 37 -38 5 52 16 20 40.3 28 354 -27 132 2 35 -39 4 20 131 53 0 -37 9 15 132 3 13 -39 11 34 131 52 27 -37 2 29 1.88
131 39 0 -38 5 8 16 20 43.5 28 355 -27 131 43 44 -39 3 33 131 34 37 -37 8 33 131 44 19 -39 10 47 131 34 6 -37 1 47 1.88
131 20 25 -38 4 27 16 20 46.7 28 355 -27 131 24 53 -39 2 50 131 16 16 -37 7 54 131 25 27 -39 10 3 131 15 46 -37 1 9 1.88
131 1 51 -38 3 50 16 20 49.8 28 355 -27 131 6 4 -39 2 11 130 57 55 -37 7 19 131 6 37 -39 9 24 130 57 28 -37 0 34 1.88
130 43 18 -38 3 17 16 20 53.0 28 356 -27 130 47 16 -39 1 36 130 39 35 -37 6 48 130 47 47 -39 8 49 130 39 10 -37 0 3 1.88
130 24 45 -38 2 48 16 20 56.2 28 356 -27 130 28 29 -39 1 5 130 21 17 -37 6 21 130 28 58 -39 8 17 130 20 52 -36 59 36 1.88
130 6 14 -38 2 23 16 20 59.3 28 356 -27 130 9 43 -39 0 38 130 2 59 -37 5 57 130 10 10 -39 7 50 130 2 36 -36 59 12 1.88
129 47 43 -38 2 1 16 21 2.5 28 356 -27 129 50 58 -39 0 15 129 44 41 -37 5 37 129 51 23 -39 7 27 129 44 20 -36 58 52 1.88
129 29 13 -38 1 44 16 21 5.7 28 357 -27 129 32 13 -38 59 56 129 26 25 -37 5 20 129 32 36 -39 7 8 129 26 5 -36 58 36 1.88
129 10 43 -38 1 30 16 21 8.9 28 357 -27 129 13 29 -38 59 41 129 8 8 -37 5 7 129 13 50 -39 6 53 129 7 50 -36 58 23 1.89
128 52 14 -38 1 20 16 21 12.0 28 357 -27 128 54 46 -38 59 30 128 49 53 -37 4 58 128 55 5 -39 6 42 128 49 36 -36 58 14 1.89
128 33 46 -38 1 14 16 21 15.2 28 358 -27 128 36 3 -38 59 23 128 31 37 -37 4 53 128 36 20 -39 6 35 128 31 22 -36 58 9 1.89
128 15 18 -38 1 11 16 21 18.4 28 358 -27 128 17 21 -38 59 20 128 13 23 -37 4 51 128 17 36 -39 6 32 128 13 9 -36 58 7 1.89
127 56 50 -38 1 13 16 21 21.5 28 358 -28 127 58 38 -38 59 21 127 55 8 -37 4 52 127 58 52 -39 6 33 127 54 56 -36 58 8 1.89
127 38 22 -38 1 18 16 21 24.7 28 359 -28 127 39 56 -38 59 26 127 36 53 -37 4 58 127 40 8 -39 6 38 127 36 43 -36 58 14 1.89
127 19 54 -38 1 27 16 21 27.9 28 359 -28 127 21 14 -38 59 35 127 18 39 -37 5 7 127 21 24 -39 6 47 127 18 30 -36 58 23 1.89
127 1 27 -38 1 39 16 21 31.0 28 359 -28 127 2 33 -38 59 48 127 0 25 -37 5 19 127 2 41 -39 6 59 127 0 18 -36 58 35 1.89
126 42 59 -38 1 56 16 21 34.2 28 360 -28 126 43 51 -39 0 5 126 42 11 -37 5 35 126 43 57 -39 7 16 126 42 5 -36 58 52 1.89
126 24 32 -38 2 16 16 21 37.4 28 360 -28 126 25 9 -39 0 25 126 23 56 -37 5 55 126 25 14 -39 7 37 126 23 52 -36 59 11 1.89
126 6 4 -38 2 40 16 21 40.5 28 0 -28 126 6 27 -39 0 50 126 5 42 -37 6 19 126 6 30 -39 8 2 126 5 39 -36 59 35 1.89
125 47 36 -38 3 8 16 21 43.7 28 0 -28 125 47 45 -39 1 19 125 47 27 -37 6 46 125 47 46 -39 8 31 125 47 26 -37 0 2 1.89
125 29 8 -38 3 40 16 21 46.9 28 1 -28 125 29 2 -39 1 52 125 29 12 -37 7 17 125 29 1 -39 9 4 125 29 12 -37 0 32 1.89
125 10 39 -38 4 15 16 21 50.0 28 1 -28 125 10 19 -39 2 28 125 10 57 -37 7 51 125 10 16 -39 9 41 125 10 59 -37 1 7 1.89
124 52 10 -38 4 55 16 21 53.2 28 1 -28 124 51 36 -39 3 9 124 52 41 -37 8 29 124 51 31 -39 10 21 124 52 44 -37 1 44 1.89
124 33 41 -38 5 38 16 21 56.4 28 2 -28 124 32 52 -39 3 54 124 34 25 -37 9 11 124 32 45 -39 11 6 124 34 30 -37 2 26 1.89
124 15 11 -38 6 25 16 21 59.6 28 2 -28 124 14 7 -39 4 42 124 16 8 -37 9 56 124 13 59 -39 11 55 124 16 15 -37 3 11 1.89
123 56 40 -38 7 15 16 22 2.7 28 2 -28 123 55 22 -39 5 35 123 57 51 -37 10 45 123 55 12 -39 12 48 123 57 59 -37 4 0 1.89
123 38 8 -38 8 10 16 22 5.9 28 3 -28 123 36 35 -39 6 32 123 39 32 -37 11 38 123 36 23 -39 13 45 123 39 42 -37 4 52 1.89
123 19 36 -38 9 8 16 22 9.1 28 3 -28 123 17 48 -39 7 33 123 21 14 -37 12 34 123 17 35 -39 14 46 123 21 25 -37 5 48 1.89
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