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Updated: 2021 Oct 21, 17:11 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Dec 15 UT, the 51 km diameter asteroid (1000) Piazzia will occult a 12.1 mag star in the constellation Andromeda for observers along a path across Northern Territory, passing over Katherine.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.8 mag to 16.92 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.4 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 2815-00722-1 by 1000 Piazzia on 2021 Dec 15
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
133 37 1 -10 7 0 11 9 36.7 42 1 -24 133 49 39 -10 15 13 133 24 23 - 9 58 51 133 56 38 -10 19 47 133 17 25 - 9 54 22 0.32
133 26 51 -10 37 44 11 9 40.2 41 2 -24 133 39 30 -10 46 1 133 14 12 -10 29 32 133 46 29 -10 50 36 133 7 13 -10 25 2 0.32
133 16 38 -11 8 49 11 9 43.8 41 2 -24 133 29 18 -11 17 9 133 3 59 -11 0 34 133 36 18 -11 21 46 132 56 59 -10 56 2 0.32
133 6 23 -11 40 15 11 9 47.3 40 2 -23 133 19 4 -11 48 38 132 53 42 -11 31 57 133 26 5 -11 53 18 132 46 43 -11 27 23 0.32
132 56 5 -12 12 4 11 9 50.8 40 2 -23 133 8 47 -12 20 30 132 43 23 -12 3 42 133 15 48 -12 25 12 132 36 23 -11 59 6 0.32
132 45 44 -12 44 15 11 9 54.3 39 2 -22 132 58 27 -12 52 46 132 33 1 -12 35 49 133 5 29 -12 57 29 132 26 0 -12 31 12 0.32
132 35 19 -13 16 51 11 9 57.9 38 2 -22 132 48 4 -13 25 25 132 22 35 -13 8 21 132 55 6 -13 30 11 132 15 34 -13 3 41 0.32
132 24 51 -13 49 51 11 10 1.4 38 2 -22 132 37 37 -13 58 30 132 12 6 -13 41 17 132 44 40 -14 3 18 132 5 4 -13 36 35 0.32
132 14 19 -14 23 18 11 10 4.9 37 3 -21 132 27 6 -14 32 1 132 1 33 -14 14 40 132 34 10 -14 36 52 131 54 30 -14 9 56 0.32
132 3 43 -14 57 13 11 10 8.4 37 3 -21 132 16 31 -15 6 0 131 50 55 -14 48 30 132 23 36 -15 10 54 131 43 51 -14 43 43 0.33
131 53 2 -15 31 36 11 10 11.9 36 3 -20 132 5 52 -15 40 28 131 40 13 -15 22 48 132 12 57 -15 45 25 131 33 8 -15 17 59 0.33
131 42 16 -16 6 29 11 10 15.5 36 3 -20 131 55 8 -16 15 27 131 29 25 -15 57 36 132 2 14 -16 20 26 131 22 20 -15 52 44 0.33
131 31 25 -16 41 55 11 10 19.0 35 3 -19 131 44 18 -16 50 58 131 18 33 -16 32 56 131 51 26 -16 56 0 131 11 27 -16 28 1 0.33
131 20 28 -17 17 53 11 10 22.5 34 3 -19 131 33 23 -17 27 3 131 7 34 -17 8 49 131 40 31 -17 32 8 131 0 27 -17 3 51 0.33
131 9 26 -17 54 27 11 10 26.0 34 3 -18 131 22 22 -18 3 43 130 56 30 -17 45 17 131 29 31 -18 8 52 130 49 22 -17 40 16 0.33
130 58 16 -18 31 39 11 10 29.6 33 4 -18 131 11 15 -18 41 1 130 45 19 -18 22 22 131 18 25 -18 46 14 130 38 10 -18 17 17 0.33
130 47 0 -19 9 29 11 10 33.1 33 4 -17 131 0 0 -19 18 59 130 34 0 -19 0 6 131 7 11 -19 24 15 130 26 50 -18 54 57 0.33
130 35 35 -19 48 2 11 10 36.6 32 4 -17 130 48 38 -19 57 39 130 22 34 -19 38 31 130 55 50 -20 3 0 130 15 23 -19 33 18 0.33
130 24 2 -20 27 19 11 10 40.1 31 4 -16 130 37 7 -20 37 4 130 10 59 -20 17 41 130 44 21 -20 42 30 130 3 47 -20 12 24 0.33
130 12 21 -21 7 24 11 10 43.6 31 4 -16 130 25 27 -21 17 18 129 59 15 -20 57 37 130 32 42 -21 22 48 129 52 2 -20 52 15 0.33
130 0 29 -21 48 19 11 10 47.2 30 4 -15 130 13 38 -21 58 22 129 47 21 -21 38 23 130 20 54 -22 3 58 129 40 7 -21 32 57 0.33
129 48 26 -22 30 9 11 10 50.7 29 4 -15 130 1 38 -22 40 22 129 35 16 -22 20 3 130 8 55 -22 46 4 129 28 1 -22 14 31 0.33
129 36 12 -23 12 58 11 10 54.2 28 5 -14 129 49 26 -23 23 21 129 23 0 -23 2 41 129 56 45 -23 29 9 129 15 43 -22 57 3 0.33
129 23 45 -23 56 49 11 10 57.7 28 5 -14 129 37 1 -24 7 25 129 10 30 -23 46 21 129 44 22 -24 13 19 129 3 12 -23 40 37 0.33
129 11 4 -24 41 49 11 11 1.3 27 5 -13 129 24 23 -24 52 37 128 57 46 -24 31 8 129 31 45 -24 58 39 128 50 26 -24 25 17 0.33
128 58 7 -25 28 3 11 11 4.8 26 5 -13 129 11 28 -25 39 6 128 44 46 -25 17 8 129 18 52 -25 45 15 128 37 25 -25 11 10 0.33
128 44 52 -26 15 38 11 11 8.3 25 5 -12 128 58 17 -26 26 57 128 31 29 -26 4 28 129 5 42 -26 33 15 128 24 6 -25 58 22 0.33
128 31 18 -27 4 43 11 11 11.8 25 5 -11 128 44 46 -27 16 19 128 17 52 -26 53 17 128 52 13 -27 22 47 128 10 28 -26 47 2 0.33
128 17 23 -27 55 27 11 11 15.4 24 5 -11 128 30 53 -28 7 22 128 3 54 -27 43 42 128 38 22 -28 14 1 127 56 28 -27 37 17 0.33
128 3 3 -28 48 1 11 11 18.9 23 6 -10 128 16 36 -29 0 17 127 49 31 -28 35 55 128 24 6 -29 7 8 127 42 3 -28 29 19 0.33
127 48 15 -29 42 38 11 11 22.4 22 6 -10 128 1 51 -29 55 19 127 34 40 -29 30 9 128 9 23 -30 2 24 127 27 11 -29 23 20 0.33
127 32 55 -30 39 36 11 11 25.9 21 6 -9 127 46 34 -30 52 45 127 19 17 -30 26 40 127 54 8 -31 0 6 127 11 46 -30 19 37 0.33
127 16 58 -31 39 15 11 11 29.4 20 6 -8 127 30 40 -31 52 56 127 3 17 -31 25 48 127 38 15 -32 0 36 126 55 45 -31 18 28 0.33
127 0 17 -32 42 1 11 11 33.0 19 6 -7 127 14 2 -32 56 20 126 46 34 -32 27 58 127 21 38 -33 4 22 126 39 0 -32 20 19 0.33
126 42 43 -33 48 28 11 11 36.5 18 6 -7 126 56 30 -34 3 33 126 28 58 -33 33 42 127 4 8 -34 12 0 126 21 24 -33 25 39 0.33
126 24 6 -34 59 22 11 11 40.0 17 7 -6 126 37 54 -35 15 22 126 10 20 -34 43 42 126 45 32 -35 24 22 126 2 45 -34 35 12 0.33
126 4 9 -36 15 46 11 11 43.5 15 7 -5 126 17 56 -36 32 57 125 50 23 -35 59 0 126 25 34 -36 42 37 125 42 48 -35 49 55 0.33
Use these links for further information:
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[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
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[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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