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Updated: 2021 Oct 21, 17:07 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Dec 08 UT, the 88 km diameter asteroid (100) Hekate will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Cetus for observers along a path across western Victoria, western New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland, passing over Ballarat, Bendigo, Echuca and Marlborough.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.9 mag to 12.74 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 16.1 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 438-001168 by 100 Hekate on 2021 Dec 8
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
140 47 55 -45 15 58 11 44 45.8 44 332 -13 140 12 38 -44 57 30 141 23 47 -45 34 30 139 59 4 -44 50 21 141 37 53 -45 41 44 0.69
140 55 46 -44 53 34 11 44 52.7 44 332 -13 140 20 43 -44 35 13 141 31 24 -45 11 59 140 7 14 -44 28 6 141 45 25 -45 19 11 0.69
141 3 37 -44 31 18 11 44 59.5 44 331 -13 140 28 46 -44 13 3 141 39 1 -44 49 37 140 15 22 -44 5 59 141 52 56 -44 56 45 0.69
141 11 27 -44 9 9 11 45 6.4 45 331 -14 140 36 49 -43 51 1 141 46 38 -44 27 22 140 23 29 -43 43 59 142 0 27 -44 34 27 0.69
141 19 16 -43 47 8 11 45 13.2 45 331 -14 140 44 50 -43 29 7 141 54 14 -44 5 14 140 31 35 -43 22 7 142 7 58 -44 12 18 0.69
141 27 4 -43 25 15 11 45 20.0 45 330 -14 140 52 50 -43 7 19 142 1 49 -43 43 14 140 39 40 -43 0 22 142 15 29 -43 50 15 0.69
141 34 52 -43 3 28 11 45 26.9 45 330 -15 141 0 50 -42 45 38 142 9 25 -43 21 21 140 47 44 -42 38 43 142 22 59 -43 28 20 0.69
141 42 39 -42 41 48 11 45 33.7 46 329 -15 141 8 48 -42 24 4 142 17 0 -42 59 36 140 55 47 -42 17 12 142 30 30 -43 6 32 0.69
141 50 25 -42 20 15 11 45 40.6 46 329 -15 141 16 46 -42 2 37 142 24 35 -42 37 57 141 3 49 -41 55 46 142 38 0 -42 44 51 0.70
141 58 11 -41 58 48 11 45 47.4 46 329 -16 141 24 43 -41 41 16 142 32 9 -42 16 25 141 11 50 -41 34 28 142 45 30 -42 23 16 0.70
142 5 57 -41 37 28 11 45 54.2 46 328 -16 141 32 39 -41 20 1 142 39 44 -41 54 59 141 19 50 -41 13 15 142 53 0 -42 1 48 0.70
142 13 42 -41 16 15 11 46 1.1 47 328 -16 141 40 35 -40 58 53 142 47 18 -41 33 40 141 27 50 -40 52 9 143 0 30 -41 40 27 0.70
142 21 27 -40 55 7 11 46 7.9 47 327 -17 141 48 30 -40 37 51 142 54 53 -41 12 27 141 35 49 -40 31 8 143 8 0 -41 19 12 0.70
142 29 12 -40 34 5 11 46 14.8 47 327 -17 141 56 25 -40 16 54 143 2 27 -40 51 20 141 43 47 -40 10 14 143 15 31 -40 58 3 0.70
142 36 57 -40 13 10 11 46 21.6 47 327 -18 142 4 19 -39 56 3 143 10 2 -40 30 19 141 51 45 -39 49 25 143 23 1 -40 37 0 0.70
142 44 41 -39 52 20 11 46 28.4 48 326 -18 142 12 13 -39 35 18 143 17 36 -40 9 24 141 59 42 -39 28 42 143 30 32 -40 16 3 0.70
142 52 25 -39 31 35 11 46 35.3 48 326 -18 142 20 6 -39 14 39 143 25 11 -39 48 35 142 7 39 -39 8 4 143 38 3 -39 55 12 0.70
143 0 10 -39 10 56 11 46 42.1 48 325 -19 142 27 59 -38 54 5 143 32 46 -39 27 51 142 15 36 -38 47 32 143 45 34 -39 34 27 0.70
143 7 54 -38 50 23 11 46 49.0 48 325 -19 142 35 52 -38 33 36 143 40 21 -39 7 13 142 23 32 -38 27 5 143 53 5 -39 13 47 0.70
143 15 38 -38 29 55 11 46 55.8 48 324 -19 142 43 45 -38 13 12 143 47 56 -38 46 40 142 31 28 -38 6 43 144 0 37 -38 53 12 0.70
143 23 22 -38 9 32 11 47 2.6 49 324 -20 142 51 38 -37 52 53 143 55 32 -38 26 13 142 39 24 -37 46 26 144 8 9 -38 32 43 0.70
143 31 7 -37 49 14 11 47 9.5 49 324 -20 142 59 31 -37 32 40 144 3 8 -38 5 50 142 47 20 -37 26 14 144 15 41 -38 12 19 0.70
143 38 51 -37 29 1 11 47 16.3 49 323 -20 143 7 23 -37 12 31 144 10 44 -37 45 33 142 55 15 -37 6 7 144 23 14 -37 52 0 0.70
143 46 36 -37 8 52 11 47 23.2 49 323 -21 143 15 16 -36 52 27 144 18 21 -37 25 21 143 3 11 -36 46 4 144 30 48 -37 31 45 0.70
143 54 21 -36 48 49 11 47 30.0 49 322 -21 143 23 9 -36 32 27 144 25 58 -37 5 13 143 11 7 -36 26 6 144 38 22 -37 11 36 0.70
144 2 7 -36 28 50 11 47 36.8 50 322 -21 143 31 1 -36 12 32 144 33 35 -36 45 10 143 19 2 -36 6 13 144 45 56 -36 51 32 0.70
144 9 52 -36 8 56 11 47 43.7 50 321 -22 143 38 54 -35 52 42 144 41 13 -36 25 12 143 26 58 -35 46 24 144 53 31 -36 31 32 0.70
144 17 38 -35 49 6 11 47 50.5 50 321 -22 143 46 48 -35 32 56 144 48 52 -36 5 18 143 34 54 -35 26 39 145 1 7 -36 11 36 0.70
144 25 25 -35 29 20 11 47 57.4 50 320 -22 143 54 41 -35 13 14 144 56 31 -35 45 28 143 42 50 -35 6 59 145 8 43 -35 51 46 0.70
144 33 12 -35 9 39 11 48 4.2 50 320 -23 144 2 35 -34 53 37 145 4 11 -35 25 43 143 50 47 -34 47 23 145 16 20 -35 31 59 0.70
144 40 59 -34 50 2 11 48 11.0 50 320 -23 144 10 29 -34 34 3 145 11 52 -35 6 3 143 58 43 -34 27 51 145 23 58 -35 12 17 0.70
144 48 47 -34 30 29 11 48 17.9 51 319 -23 144 18 24 -34 14 34 145 19 33 -34 46 26 144 6 40 -34 8 23 145 31 37 -34 52 39 0.71
144 56 36 -34 11 0 11 48 24.7 51 319 -24 144 26 19 -33 55 8 145 27 15 -34 26 54 144 14 38 -33 48 59 145 39 16 -34 33 5 0.71
145 4 25 -33 51 35 11 48 31.6 51 318 -24 144 34 14 -33 35 47 145 34 58 -34 7 25 144 22 36 -33 29 38 145 46 56 -34 13 35 0.71
145 12 15 -33 32 14 11 48 38.4 51 318 -24 144 42 10 -33 16 29 145 42 41 -33 48 0 144 30 34 -33 10 22 145 54 37 -33 54 9 0.71
145 20 6 -33 12 56 11 48 45.2 51 317 -25 144 50 7 -32 57 15 145 50 26 -33 28 40 144 38 33 -32 51 9 146 2 19 -33 34 47 0.71
145 27 57 -32 53 43 11 48 52.1 51 317 -25 144 58 4 -32 38 4 145 58 11 -33 9 23 144 46 32 -32 32 0 146 10 2 -33 15 29 0.71
145 35 50 -32 34 33 11 48 58.9 51 316 -25 145 6 2 -32 18 57 146 5 57 -32 50 9 144 54 33 -32 12 54 146 17 46 -32 56 14 0.71
145 43 43 -32 15 26 11 49 5.7 52 316 -26 145 14 1 -31 59 54 146 13 45 -32 31 0 145 2 33 -31 53 52 146 25 31 -32 37 3 0.71
145 51 36 -31 56 23 11 49 12.6 52 315 -26 145 22 0 -31 40 54 146 21 33 -32 11 54 145 10 35 -31 34 53 146 33 17 -32 17 56 0.71
145 59 31 -31 37 24 11 49 19.4 52 315 -26 145 30 0 -31 21 58 146 29 22 -31 52 51 145 18 37 -31 15 58 146 41 4 -31 58 52 0.71
146 7 27 -31 18 27 11 49 26.3 52 314 -27 145 38 1 -31 3 4 146 37 12 -31 33 52 145 26 40 -30 57 6 146 48 52 -31 39 52 0.71
146 15 24 -30 59 34 11 49 33.1 52 314 -27 145 46 3 -30 44 14 146 45 4 -31 14 56 145 34 44 -30 38 17 146 56 41 -31 20 55 0.71
146 23 22 -30 40 45 11 49 39.9 52 313 -27 145 54 6 -30 25 27 146 52 56 -30 56 3 145 42 49 -30 19 31 147 4 32 -31 2 1 0.71
146 31 21 -30 21 58 11 49 46.8 52 313 -28 146 2 10 -30 6 44 147 0 50 -30 37 14 145 50 54 -30 0 49 147 12 24 -30 43 11 0.71
146 39 21 -30 3 15 11 49 53.6 52 312 -28 146 10 15 -29 48 3 147 8 45 -30 18 28 145 59 1 -29 42 9 147 20 17 -30 24 23 0.71
146 47 22 -29 44 34 11 50 0.5 53 312 -28 146 18 20 -29 29 25 147 16 42 -29 59 45 146 7 8 -29 23 32 147 28 11 -30 5 39 0.71
146 55 24 -29 25 57 11 50 7.3 53 311 -29 146 26 27 -29 10 51 147 24 39 -29 41 5 146 15 17 -29 4 59 147 36 7 -29 46 58 0.71
147 3 28 -29 7 23 11 50 14.1 53 311 -29 146 34 35 -28 52 19 147 32 38 -29 22 28 146 23 27 -28 46 28 147 44 4 -29 28 20 0.71
147 11 32 -28 48 51 11 50 21.0 53 310 -29 146 42 45 -28 33 50 147 40 39 -29 3 53 146 31 38 -28 28 0 147 52 3 -29 9 45 0.72
147 19 39 -28 30 22 11 50 27.8 53 310 -30 146 50 55 -28 15 24 147 48 40 -28 45 22 146 39 50 -28 9 35 148 0 3 -28 51 12 0.72
147 27 46 -28 11 56 11 50 34.7 53 309 -30 146 59 7 -27 57 0 147 56 44 -28 26 53 146 48 3 -27 51 12 148 8 4 -28 32 43 0.72
147 35 55 -27 53 33 11 50 41.5 53 309 -30 147 7 20 -27 38 39 148 4 48 -28 8 28 146 56 18 -27 32 52 148 16 7 -28 14 16 0.72
147 44 5 -27 35 12 11 50 48.3 53 308 -31 147 15 34 -27 20 21 148 12 55 -27 50 5 147 4 33 -27 14 35 148 24 12 -27 55 52 0.72
147 52 17 -27 16 54 11 50 55.2 53 308 -31 147 23 50 -27 2 5 148 21 2 -27 31 44 147 12 51 -26 56 20 148 32 18 -27 37 31 0.72
148 0 31 -26 58 39 11 51 2.0 53 307 -31 147 32 7 -26 43 52 148 29 12 -27 13 26 147 21 9 -26 38 8 148 40 26 -27 19 12 0.72
148 8 46 -26 40 26 11 51 8.9 53 307 -32 147 40 26 -26 25 41 148 37 23 -26 55 11 147 29 29 -26 19 58 148 48 36 -27 0 56 0.72
148 17 2 -26 22 15 11 51 15.7 53 306 -32 147 48 46 -26 7 33 148 45 36 -26 36 58 147 37 51 -26 1 50 148 56 47 -26 42 42 0.72
148 25 20 -26 4 7 11 51 22.5 53 306 -32 147 57 7 -25 49 27 148 53 50 -26 18 48 147 46 14 -25 43 45 149 5 0 -26 24 31 0.72
148 33 40 -25 46 1 11 51 29.4 54 305 -33 148 5 31 -25 31 24 149 2 7 -26 0 40 147 54 38 -25 25 42 149 13 15 -26 6 22 0.72
148 42 2 -25 27 58 11 51 36.2 54 305 -33 148 13 56 -25 13 22 149 10 25 -25 42 34 148 3 5 -25 7 42 149 21 32 -25 48 15 0.72
148 50 25 -25 9 57 11 51 43.1 54 304 -33 148 22 22 -24 55 23 149 18 45 -25 24 31 148 11 32 -24 49 44 149 29 50 -25 30 11 0.72
148 58 50 -24 51 58 11 51 49.9 54 304 -34 148 30 51 -24 37 26 149 27 7 -25 6 30 148 20 2 -24 31 47 149 38 11 -25 12 9 0.72
149 7 17 -24 34 1 11 51 56.7 54 303 -34 148 39 21 -24 19 31 149 35 31 -24 48 31 148 28 33 -24 13 53 149 46 34 -24 54 10 0.72
149 15 46 -24 16 6 11 52 3.6 54 302 -34 148 47 53 -24 1 39 149 43 57 -24 30 34 148 37 6 -23 56 1 149 54 58 -24 36 12 0.72
149 24 17 -23 58 13 11 52 10.4 54 302 -35 148 56 27 -23 43 48 149 52 24 -24 12 40 148 45 41 -23 38 12 150 3 25 -24 18 17 0.73
149 32 50 -23 40 23 11 52 17.3 54 301 -35 149 5 2 -23 25 59 150 0 54 -23 54 47 148 54 18 -23 20 24 150 11 54 -24 0 23 0.73
149 41 25 -23 22 34 11 52 24.1 54 301 -35 149 13 40 -23 8 13 150 9 27 -23 36 57 149 2 57 -23 2 38 150 20 25 -23 42 32 0.73
149 50 2 -23 4 48 11 52 30.9 54 300 -36 149 22 20 -22 50 28 150 18 1 -23 19 8 149 11 38 -22 44 54 150 28 58 -23 24 43 0.73
149 58 41 -22 47 3 11 52 37.8 54 300 -36 149 31 1 -22 32 45 150 26 37 -23 1 22 149 20 20 -22 27 12 150 37 33 -23 6 56 0.73
150 7 23 -22 29 20 11 52 44.6 54 299 -36 149 39 45 -22 15 4 150 35 16 -22 43 37 149 29 5 -22 9 31 150 46 11 -22 49 10 0.73
150 16 6 -22 11 39 11 52 51.5 54 299 -37 149 48 31 -21 57 25 150 43 57 -22 25 54 149 37 52 -21 51 53 150 54 51 -22 31 27 0.73
150 24 52 -21 54 0 11 52 58.3 54 298 -37 149 57 19 -21 39 47 150 52 40 -22 8 13 149 46 41 -21 34 16 151 3 34 -22 13 45 0.73
150 33 40 -21 36 23 11 53 5.1 54 298 -37 150 6 10 -21 22 12 151 1 26 -21 50 34 149 55 32 -21 16 41 151 12 18 -21 56 6 0.73
150 42 31 -21 18 47 11 53 12.0 54 297 -38 150 15 3 -21 4 38 151 10 14 -21 32 57 150 4 26 -20 59 7 151 21 6 -21 38 27 0.73
150 51 24 -21 1 13 11 53 18.8 54 297 -38 150 23 58 -20 47 5 151 19 5 -21 15 21 150 13 22 -20 41 36 151 29 56 -21 20 51 0.73
151 0 19 -20 43 41 11 53 25.7 54 296 -38 150 32 55 -20 29 35 151 27 58 -20 57 47 150 22 20 -20 24 6 151 38 48 -21 3 17 0.73
151 9 17 -20 26 10 11 53 32.5 54 296 -39 150 41 55 -20 12 5 151 36 54 -20 40 15 150 31 21 -20 6 37 151 47 43 -20 45 44 0.73
151 18 17 -20 8 41 11 53 39.3 54 295 -39 150 50 57 -19 54 38 151 45 53 -20 22 44 150 40 24 -19 49 10 151 56 41 -20 28 12 0.73
151 27 20 -19 51 13 11 53 46.2 54 295 -39 151 0 2 -19 37 12 151 54 54 -20 5 15 150 49 29 -19 31 45 152 5 41 -20 10 42 0.73
151 36 26 -19 33 47 11 53 53.0 54 294 -40 151 9 10 -19 19 47 152 3 58 -19 47 47 150 58 38 -19 14 21 152 14 45 -19 53 14 0.74
151 45 35 -19 16 22 11 53 59.9 54 294 -40 151 18 20 -19 2 24 152 13 5 -19 30 21 151 7 48 -18 56 58 152 23 51 -19 35 47 0.74
151 54 46 -18 58 59 11 54 6.7 54 293 -40 151 27 33 -18 45 2 152 22 14 -19 12 57 151 17 2 -18 39 37 152 33 0 -19 18 22 0.74
152 4 0 -18 41 37 11 54 13.5 54 293 -41 151 36 49 -18 27 42 152 31 27 -18 55 33 151 26 18 -18 22 17 152 42 12 -19 0 58 0.74
152 13 17 -18 24 17 11 54 20.4 53 292 -41 151 46 7 -18 10 23 152 40 42 -18 38 11 151 35 37 -18 4 58 152 51 26 -18 43 36 0.74
152 22 37 -18 6 58 11 54 27.2 53 292 -41 151 55 28 -17 53 5 152 50 1 -18 20 51 151 44 59 -17 47 41 153 0 44 -18 26 15 0.74
152 32 0 -17 49 40 11 54 34.1 53 291 -42 152 4 53 -17 35 49 152 59 23 -18 3 32 151 54 24 -17 30 25 153 10 5 -18 8 55 0.74
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