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Updated: 2021 OCT 21, 17:00 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Nov 28 UT, the 69.4 km diameter asteroid (861) Aida will occult a 11.9 mag star in the constellation Taurus for observers along a path across the South Island of New Zealand, from Dunedin to Invercargill, in morning twilight, and across southern Tasmania, south of Hobart.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.63 mag to 14.43 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.850 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 519-008322 by 861 Aida on 2021 Nov 28
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
175 42 26 -46 56 34 15 10 32.3 19 317 -10 176 26 16 -47 40 59 175 2 2 -46 13 36 176 38 51 -47 53 21 174 51 34 -46 2 8 1.58
175 7 20 -46 50 44 15 10 34.3 19 318 -10 175 49 46 -47 34 45 174 28 9 -46 8 6 176 1 56 -47 47 0 174 18 0 -45 56 43 1.59
174 32 50 -46 45 5 15 10 36.2 20 318 -11 175 13 57 -47 28 44 173 54 48 -46 2 46 175 25 44 -47 40 52 173 44 56 -45 51 28 1.59
173 58 54 -46 39 36 15 10 38.2 20 319 -11 174 38 45 -47 22 55 173 21 57 -45 57 36 174 50 10 -47 34 57 173 12 21 -45 46 22 1.59
173 25 29 -46 34 18 15 10 40.2 20 319 -11 174 4 10 -47 17 17 172 49 34 -45 52 35 174 15 14 -47 29 13 172 40 14 -45 41 26 1.59
172 52 34 -46 29 10 15 10 42.1 21 320 -12 173 30 8 -47 11 50 172 17 39 -45 47 43 173 40 52 -47 23 40 172 8 33 -45 36 38 1.59
172 20 7 -46 24 11 15 10 44.1 21 320 -12 172 56 38 -47 6 33 171 46 8 -45 43 0 173 7 3 -47 18 18 171 37 17 -45 31 59 1.59
171 48 7 -46 19 21 15 10 46.1 21 321 -12 172 23 38 -47 1 26 171 15 3 -45 38 25 172 33 45 -47 13 7 171 6 25 -45 27 27 1.59
171 16 33 -46 14 39 15 10 48.0 22 321 -13 171 51 6 -46 56 29 170 44 20 -45 33 57 172 0 56 -47 8 4 170 35 56 -45 23 4 1.59
170 45 23 -46 10 6 15 10 50.0 22 322 -13 171 19 1 -46 51 40 170 14 0 -45 29 38 171 28 35 -47 3 11 170 5 48 -45 18 47 1.59
170 14 37 -46 5 41 15 10 52.0 22 322 -13 170 47 21 -46 47 0 169 44 0 -45 25 25 170 56 40 -46 58 27 169 36 1 -45 14 38 1.59
169 44 12 -46 1 23 15 10 53.9 22 323 -13 170 16 6 -46 42 29 169 14 21 -45 21 20 170 25 10 -46 53 52 169 6 33 -45 10 36 1.59
169 14 8 -45 57 13 15 10 55.9 23 323 -14 169 45 14 -46 38 5 168 45 1 -45 17 22 169 54 4 -46 49 24 168 37 24 -45 6 41 1.59
168 44 25 -45 53 10 15 10 57.9 23 324 -14 169 14 44 -46 33 50 168 15 59 -45 13 30 169 23 21 -46 45 5 168 8 33 -45 2 52 1.59
168 15 0 -45 49 13 15 10 59.8 23 324 -14 168 44 35 -46 29 41 167 47 15 -45 9 44 168 52 58 -46 40 53 167 40 0 -44 59 9 1.59
167 45 54 -45 45 24 15 11 1.8 23 324 -14 168 14 46 -46 25 40 167 18 48 -45 6 5 168 22 57 -46 36 48 167 11 43 -44 55 33 1.59
167 17 6 -45 41 40 15 11 3.7 24 325 -15 167 45 16 -46 21 46 166 50 38 -45 2 32 167 53 15 -46 32 51 166 43 42 -44 52 2 1.59
166 48 34 -45 38 3 15 11 5.7 24 325 -15 167 16 4 -46 17 58 166 22 42 -44 59 5 167 23 52 -46 29 0 166 15 56 -44 48 37 1.59
166 20 19 -45 34 32 15 11 7.7 24 326 -15 166 47 10 -46 14 17 165 55 2 -44 55 43 166 54 47 -46 25 16 165 48 25 -44 45 18 1.59
165 52 19 -45 31 7 15 11 9.6 24 326 -15 166 18 33 -46 10 42 165 27 36 -44 52 27 166 25 59 -46 21 38 165 21 8 -44 42 4 1.59
165 24 34 -45 27 48 15 11 11.6 25 327 -16 165 50 12 -46 7 13 165 0 25 -44 49 16 165 57 27 -46 18 6 164 54 4 -44 38 55 1.59
164 57 3 -45 24 34 15 11 13.6 25 327 -16 165 22 7 -46 3 50 164 33 26 -44 46 10 165 29 12 -46 14 41 164 27 14 -44 35 52 1.59
164 29 46 -45 21 26 15 11 15.5 25 327 -16 164 54 16 -46 0 33 164 6 40 -44 43 10 165 1 12 -46 11 21 164 0 36 -44 32 53 1.59
164 2 43 -45 18 22 15 11 17.5 25 328 -16 164 26 40 -45 57 21 163 40 7 -44 40 14 164 33 26 -46 8 7 163 34 11 -44 30 0 1.59
163 35 52 -45 15 24 15 11 19.5 25 328 -16 163 59 17 -45 54 15 163 13 45 -44 37 24 164 5 54 -46 4 58 163 7 57 -44 27 11 1.59
163 9 14 -45 12 31 15 11 21.4 26 329 -17 163 32 8 -45 51 14 162 47 35 -44 34 38 163 38 36 -46 1 55 162 41 54 -44 24 27 1.59
162 42 47 -45 9 43 15 11 23.4 26 329 -17 163 5 11 -45 48 18 162 21 36 -44 31 56 163 11 31 -45 58 57 162 16 2 -44 21 47 1.59
162 16 32 -45 6 59 15 11 25.4 26 330 -17 162 38 27 -45 45 27 161 55 48 -44 29 20 162 44 38 -45 56 4 161 50 21 -44 19 12 1.59
161 50 28 -45 4 21 15 11 27.3 26 330 -17 162 11 54 -45 42 41 161 30 10 -44 26 47 162 17 57 -45 53 16 161 24 50 -44 16 42 1.59
161 24 34 -45 1 46 15 11 29.3 26 330 -17 161 45 33 -45 40 0 161 4 42 -44 24 19 161 51 28 -45 50 33 160 59 29 -44 14 15 1.59
160 58 51 -44 59 17 15 11 31.3 27 331 -18 161 19 23 -45 37 24 160 39 24 -44 21 55 161 25 10 -45 47 55 160 34 17 -44 11 53 1.59
160 33 17 -44 56 51 15 11 33.2 27 331 -18 160 53 23 -45 34 52 160 14 15 -44 19 36 160 59 3 -45 45 22 160 9 15 -44 9 35 1.59
160 7 54 -44 54 30 15 11 35.2 27 332 -18 160 27 34 -45 32 25 159 49 15 -44 17 20 160 33 6 -45 42 53 159 44 21 -44 7 21 1.59
159 42 39 -44 52 13 15 11 37.2 27 332 -18 160 1 54 -45 30 2 159 24 24 -44 15 9 160 7 19 -45 40 28 159 19 36 -44 5 11 1.59
159 17 34 -44 50 1 15 11 39.1 27 332 -18 159 36 24 -45 27 44 158 59 41 -44 13 1 159 41 42 -45 38 8 158 54 59 -44 3 4 1.59
158 52 37 -44 47 52 15 11 41.1 27 333 -19 159 11 3 -45 25 30 158 35 7 -44 10 58 159 16 15 -45 35 52 158 30 30 -44 1 2 1.59
158 27 48 -44 45 47 15 11 43.0 28 333 -19 158 45 51 -45 23 20 158 10 40 -44 8 58 158 50 56 -45 33 41 158 6 9 -43 59 3 1.59
158 3 7 -44 43 46 15 11 45.0 28 334 -19 158 20 48 -45 21 14 157 46 21 -44 7 2 158 25 46 -45 31 33 157 41 55 -43 57 9 1.59
157 38 35 -44 41 49 15 11 47.0 28 334 -19 157 55 53 -45 19 12 157 22 9 -44 5 9 158 0 45 -45 29 30 157 17 49 -43 55 17 1.59
157 14 10 -44 39 56 15 11 48.9 28 335 -19 157 31 6 -45 17 14 156 58 4 -44 3 20 157 35 51 -45 27 30 156 53 50 -43 53 30 1.59
156 49 52 -44 38 6 15 11 50.9 28 335 -19 157 6 26 -45 15 19 156 34 7 -44 1 35 157 11 6 -45 25 35 156 29 57 -43 51 45 1.59
156 25 41 -44 36 20 15 11 52.9 28 335 -20 156 41 54 -45 13 29 156 10 16 -43 59 53 156 46 28 -45 23 43 156 6 11 -43 50 5 1.59
156 1 37 -44 34 38 15 11 54.8 29 336 -20 156 17 30 -45 11 42 155 46 31 -43 58 15 156 21 58 -45 21 55 155 42 32 -43 48 27 1.59
155 37 40 -44 32 59 15 11 56.8 29 336 -20 155 53 12 -45 9 59 155 22 53 -43 56 40 155 57 34 -45 20 11 155 18 59 -43 46 54 1.59
155 13 49 -44 31 24 15 11 58.8 29 337 -20 155 29 1 -45 8 20 154 59 20 -43 55 8 155 33 18 -45 18 31 154 55 31 -43 45 23 1.59
154 50 4 -44 29 52 15 12 0.7 29 337 -20 155 4 57 -45 6 44 154 35 54 -43 53 40 155 9 8 -45 16 54 154 32 10 -43 43 56 1.59
154 26 25 -44 28 24 15 12 2.7 29 337 -20 154 40 59 -45 5 12 154 12 33 -43 52 15 154 45 5 -45 15 21 154 8 54 -43 42 32 1.59
154 2 52 -44 26 59 15 12 4.7 29 338 -20 154 17 7 -45 3 43 153 49 18 -43 50 54 154 21 7 -45 13 51 153 45 43 -43 41 11 1.59
153 39 25 -44 25 37 15 12 6.6 29 338 -21 153 53 21 -45 2 18 153 26 8 -43 49 35 153 57 16 -45 12 24 153 22 38 -43 39 53 1.59
153 16 3 -44 24 18 15 12 8.6 29 339 -21 153 29 41 -45 0 56 153 3 3 -43 48 20 153 33 31 -45 11 2 152 59 38 -43 38 38 1.59
152 52 46 -44 23 3 15 12 10.6 30 339 -21 153 6 6 -44 59 38 152 40 4 -43 47 7 153 9 51 -45 9 42 152 36 42 -43 37 27 1.59
152 29 34 -44 21 51 15 12 12.5 30 339 -21 152 42 37 -44 58 22 152 17 9 -43 45 58 152 46 16 -45 8 26 152 13 52 -43 36 19 1.59
152 6 28 -44 20 42 15 12 14.5 30 340 -21 152 19 12 -44 57 10 151 54 18 -43 44 52 152 22 47 -45 7 13 151 51 6 -43 35 13 1.59
151 43 26 -44 19 36 15 12 16.5 30 340 -21 151 55 53 -44 56 2 151 31 33 -43 43 49 151 59 23 -45 6 4 151 28 24 -43 34 11 1.59
151 20 28 -44 18 33 15 12 18.4 30 341 -21 151 32 39 -44 54 56 151 8 51 -43 42 49 151 36 4 -45 4 57 151 5 47 -43 33 11 1.59
150 57 35 -44 17 34 15 12 20.4 30 341 -21 151 9 29 -44 53 54 150 46 14 -43 41 51 151 12 49 -45 3 54 150 43 14 -43 32 15 1.59
150 34 46 -44 16 37 15 12 22.4 30 341 -22 150 46 24 -44 52 54 150 23 41 -43 40 57 150 49 39 -45 2 54 150 20 45 -43 31 21 1.60
150 12 1 -44 15 43 15 12 24.3 30 342 -22 150 23 23 -44 51 58 150 1 11 -43 40 6 150 26 34 -45 1 57 149 58 19 -43 30 30 1.60
149 49 21 -44 14 53 15 12 26.3 30 342 -22 150 0 26 -44 51 5 149 38 46 -43 39 17 150 3 32 -45 1 3 149 35 58 -43 29 42 1.60
149 26 44 -44 14 5 15 12 28.2 30 343 -22 149 37 33 -44 50 15 149 16 24 -43 38 32 149 40 35 -45 0 12 149 13 40 -43 28 57 1.60
149 4 11 -44 13 20 15 12 30.2 31 343 -22 149 14 44 -44 49 28 148 54 6 -43 37 49 149 17 42 -44 59 25 148 51 26 -43 28 15 1.60
148 41 41 -44 12 38 15 12 32.2 31 343 -22 148 51 59 -44 48 44 148 31 51 -43 37 9 148 54 52 -44 58 40 148 29 15 -43 27 35 1.60
148 19 15 -44 11 59 15 12 34.1 31 344 -22 148 29 17 -44 48 3 148 9 39 -43 36 31 148 32 6 -44 57 58 148 7 7 -43 26 58 1.60
147 56 52 -44 11 22 15 12 36.1 31 344 -22 148 6 39 -44 47 24 147 47 30 -43 35 57 148 9 24 -44 57 19 147 45 2 -43 26 24 1.60
147 34 32 -44 10 49 15 12 38.1 31 345 -22 147 44 4 -44 46 49 147 25 25 -43 35 25 147 46 45 -44 56 43 147 23 0 -43 25 53 1.60
147 12 15 -44 10 18 15 12 40.0 31 345 -22 147 21 32 -44 46 16 147 3 22 -43 34 56 147 24 9 -44 56 10 147 1 1 -43 25 24 1.60
146 50 1 -44 9 50 15 12 42.0 31 345 -23 146 59 4 -44 45 47 146 41 22 -43 34 30 147 1 36 -44 55 40 146 39 5 -43 24 58 1.60
146 27 50 -44 9 25 15 12 44.0 31 346 -23 146 36 38 -44 45 20 146 19 25 -43 34 6 146 39 6 -44 55 13 146 17 12 -43 24 35 1.60
146 5 42 -44 9 2 15 12 45.9 31 346 -23 146 14 15 -44 44 56 145 57 31 -43 33 45 146 16 39 -44 54 49 145 55 21 -43 24 14 1.60
145 43 36 -44 8 43 15 12 47.9 31 347 -23 145 51 55 -44 44 35 145 35 38 -43 33 26 145 54 15 -44 54 27 145 33 32 -43 23 56 1.60
145 21 32 -44 8 26 15 12 49.9 31 347 -23 145 29 37 -44 44 17 145 13 48 -43 33 10 145 31 53 -44 54 8 145 11 46 -43 23 41 1.60
144 59 31 -44 8 11 15 12 51.8 31 347 -23 145 7 22 -44 44 1 144 52 1 -43 32 57 145 9 34 -44 53 53 144 50 2 -43 23 28 1.60
144 37 32 -44 8 0 15 12 53.8 31 348 -23 144 45 9 -44 43 48 144 30 15 -43 32 47 144 47 17 -44 53 39 144 28 20 -43 23 17 1.60
144 15 36 -44 7 51 15 12 55.8 31 348 -23 144 22 59 -44 43 38 144 8 32 -43 32 39 144 25 3 -44 53 29 144 6 40 -43 23 10 1.60
143 53 41 -44 7 44 15 12 57.7 32 349 -23 144 0 50 -44 43 31 143 46 50 -43 32 33 144 2 50 -44 53 21 143 45 2 -43 23 5 1.60
143 31 48 -44 7 41 15 12 59.7 32 349 -23 143 38 43 -44 43 26 143 25 11 -43 32 30 143 40 40 -44 53 16 143 23 25 -43 23 2 1.60
143 9 57 -44 7 39 15 13 1.7 32 350 -23 143 16 39 -44 43 24 143 3 33 -43 32 30 143 18 31 -44 53 14 143 1 51 -43 23 2 1.60
142 48 8 -44 7 41 15 13 3.6 32 350 -23 142 54 36 -44 43 25 142 41 56 -43 32 32 142 56 24 -44 53 15 142 40 18 -43 23 4 1.60
142 26 20 -44 7 45 15 13 5.6 32 350 -23 142 32 35 -44 43 28 142 20 21 -43 32 37 142 34 19 -44 53 18 142 18 46 -43 23 9 1.60
142 4 34 -44 7 52 15 13 7.5 32 351 -23 142 10 35 -44 43 34 141 58 48 -43 32 44 142 12 16 -44 53 24 141 57 16 -43 23 17 1.60
141 42 49 -44 8 1 15 13 9.5 32 351 -24 141 48 37 -44 43 43 141 37 16 -43 32 54 141 50 14 -44 53 32 141 35 47 -43 23 27 1.60
141 21 5 -44 8 13 15 13 11.5 32 352 -24 141 26 40 -44 43 54 141 15 45 -43 33 7 141 28 13 -44 53 43 141 14 20 -43 23 39 1.60
140 59 23 -44 8 27 15 13 13.4 32 352 -24 141 4 44 -44 44 8 140 54 15 -43 33 21 141 6 14 -44 53 57 140 52 53 -43 23 54 1.60
140 37 42 -44 8 44 15 13 15.4 32 352 -24 140 42 50 -44 44 25 140 32 46 -43 33 39 140 44 16 -44 54 14 140 31 28 -43 24 11 1.60
140 16 1 -44 9 4 15 13 17.4 32 353 -24 140 20 56 -44 44 44 140 11 18 -43 33 59 140 22 18 -44 54 33 140 10 3 -43 24 31 1.60
139 54 22 -44 9 26 15 13 19.3 32 353 -24 139 59 3 -44 45 6 139 49 51 -43 34 21 140 0 22 -44 54 55 139 48 40 -43 24 54 1.60
139 32 43 -44 9 51 15 13 21.3 32 354 -24 139 37 12 -44 45 30 139 28 25 -43 34 46 139 38 27 -44 55 19 139 27 17 -43 25 18 1.60
139 11 5 -44 10 18 15 13 23.3 32 354 -24 139 15 21 -44 45 58 139 7 0 -43 35 13 139 16 32 -44 55 46 139 5 55 -43 25 46 1.60
138 49 28 -44 10 48 15 13 25.2 32 354 -24 138 53 30 -44 46 27 138 45 35 -43 35 43 138 54 38 -44 56 16 138 44 33 -43 26 15 1.60
138 27 51 -44 11 20 15 13 27.2 32 355 -24 138 31 41 -44 47 0 138 24 10 -43 36 15 138 32 45 -44 56 48 138 23 12 -43 26 48 1.60
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2021 Oct 21.0
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