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Updated: 2021 OCT 21, 16:59 UT
Event Rank : 90
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Nov 26 UT, the 59.9 km diameter asteroid (2906) Caltech will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a fairly narrow path across Australia, from near Coffs Harbour across north-eastern New South Wales, central Queensland and north-western Northern Territory.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.49 mag to 14.86 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.070 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4-569-026663 by 2906 Caltech on 2021 Nov 26
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
168 23 14 -48 0 0 16 40 56.1 14 332 -2 168 57 31 167 48 57 169 33 17 167 13 14 0.54
167 19 46 -47 0 0 16 40 58.7 15 333 -3 167 53 24 166 46 9 168 28 28 166 11 7 0.54
166 17 35 -46 0 0 16 41 1.5 16 334 -4 166 50 35 165 44 35 167 25 0 165 10 12 0.55
165 16 33 -45 0 0 16 41 4.5 17 335 -5 165 48 58 164 44 8 166 22 47 164 10 20 0.55
164 16 33 -44 0 0 16 41 7.8 19 336 -6 164 48 26 163 44 40 165 21 40 163 11 25 0.55
163 17 29 -43 0 0 16 41 11.2 20 336 -8 163 48 51 162 46 5 164 21 33 162 13 21 0.55
162 19 14 -42 0 0 16 41 14.9 21 337 -9 162 50 8 161 48 18 163 22 21 161 16 3 0.55
161 21 43 -41 0 0 16 41 18.8 22 338 -10 161 52 11 160 51 14 162 23 56 160 19 25 0.56
160 24 52 -40 0 0 16 41 22.8 23 338 -11 160 54 56 159 54 47 161 26 15 159 23 23 0.56
159 28 35 -39 0 0 16 41 27.1 25 339 -12 159 58 16 158 58 52 160 29 11 158 27 52 0.56
158 32 48 -38 0 0 16 41 31.6 26 340 -13 159 2 8 158 3 26 159 32 41 157 32 48 0.56
157 37 27 -37 0 0 16 41 36.3 27 341 -15 158 6 27 157 8 25 158 36 40 156 38 7 0.56
156 42 28 -36 0 0 16 41 41.2 28 341 -16 157 11 10 156 13 44 157 41 3 155 43 44 0.56
155 47 47 -35 0 0 16 41 46.3 29 342 -17 156 16 12 155 19 20 156 45 48 154 49 37 0.56
154 53 21 -34 0 0 16 41 51.6 30 343 -18 155 21 31 154 25 9 155 50 50 153 55 42 0.56
153 59 6 -33 0 0 16 41 57.1 32 344 -19 154 27 1 153 31 8 154 56 5 153 1 56 0.56
153 4 59 -32 0 0 16 42 2.8 33 344 -21 153 32 41 152 37 14 154 1 31 152 8 15 0.56
152 10 56 -31 0 0 16 42 8.8 34 345 -22 152 38 27 151 43 23 153 7 4 151 14 36 0.56
151 16 56 -30 0 0 16 42 14.9 35 346 -23 151 44 15 150 49 33 152 12 42 150 20 57 0.56
150 22 53 -29 0 0 16 42 21.2 36 347 -24 150 50 4 149 55 40 151 18 19 149 27 14 0.57
149 28 47 -28 0 0 16 42 27.7 37 347 -26 149 55 48 149 1 42 150 23 55 148 33 24 0.57
148 34 33 -27 0 0 16 42 34.4 38 348 -27 149 1 27 148 7 35 149 29 26 147 39 25 0.57
147 40 9 -26 0 0 16 42 41.3 40 349 -28 148 6 56 147 13 17 148 34 48 146 45 13 0.57
146 45 31 -25 0 0 16 42 48.4 41 350 -29 147 12 14 146 18 45 147 40 0 145 50 46 0.57
145 50 38 -24 0 0 16 42 55.7 42 351 -31 146 17 16 145 23 56 146 44 58 144 56 1 0.57
144 55 25 -23 0 0 16 43 3.2 43 352 -32 145 22 0 144 28 46 145 49 38 144 0 54 0.57
143 59 51 -22 0 0 16 43 10.9 44 353 -33 144 26 23 143 33 14 144 53 59 143 5 24 0.57
143 3 51 -21 0 0 16 43 18.9 45 354 -35 143 30 23 142 37 15 143 57 57 142 9 26 0.57
142 7 24 -20 0 0 16 43 27.0 46 355 -36 142 33 55 141 40 47 143 1 29 141 12 58 0.57
141 10 25 -19 0 0 16 43 35.3 47 356 -37 141 36 57 140 43 47 142 4 32 140 15 56 0.57
140 12 51 -18 0 0 16 43 43.8 48 357 -39 140 39 26 139 46 12 141 7 2 139 18 18 0.56
139 14 40 -17 0 0 16 43 52.5 49 359 -40 139 41 17 138 47 57 140 8 57 138 19 59 0.56
138 15 47 -16 0 0 16 44 1.3 50 360 -41 138 42 29 137 48 59 139 10 12 137 20 56 0.56
137 16 8 -15 0 0 16 44 10.4 51 1 -43 137 42 56 136 49 15 138 10 45 136 21 6 0.56
136 15 41 -14 0 0 16 44 19.8 52 3 -44 136 42 35 135 48 40 137 10 32 135 20 23 0.56
135 14 20 -13 0 0 16 44 29.3 53 4 -45 135 41 23 134 47 11 136 9 27 134 18 45 0.56
134 12 2 -12 0 0 16 44 39.0 54 6 -47 134 39 14 133 44 42 135 7 28 133 16 5 0.56
133 8 41 -11 0 0 16 44 48.9 55 8 -48 133 36 4 132 41 10 134 4 29 132 12 21 0.56
132 4 13 -10 0 0 16 44 59.0 56 10 -50 132 31 48 131 36 28 133 0 26 131 7 25 0.56
130 58 31 - 9 0 0 16 45 9.4 57 12 -51 131 26 22 130 30 32 131 55 14 130 1 13 0.56
129 51 31 - 8 0 0 16 45 19.9 57 14 -52 130 19 38 129 23 16 130 48 46 128 53 38 0.56
128 43 6 - 7 0 0 16 45 30.7 58 16 -54 129 11 31 128 14 32 129 40 58 127 44 34 0.56
127 33 9 - 6 0 0 16 45 41.7 59 18 -55 128 1 54 127 4 14 128 31 41 126 33 54 0.56
126 21 32 - 5 0 0 16 45 52.9 59 21 -57 126 50 39 125 52 13 127 20 50 125 21 28 0.56
125 8 6 - 4 0 0 16 46 4.4 60 23 -58 125 37 39 124 38 22 126 8 15 124 7 8 0.56
123 52 43 - 3 0 0 16 46 16.1 60 26 -60 124 22 44 123 22 29 124 53 48 122 50 45 0.56
122 35 11 - 2 0 0 16 46 28.0 60 29 -61 123 5 43 122 4 25 123 37 19 121 32 5 0.56
121 15 18 - 1 0 0 16 46 40.3 61 32 -63 121 46 26 120 43 56 122 18 37 120 10 57 0.56
119 52 52 0 0 0 16 46 52.8 61 35 -64 120 24 38 119 20 49 120 57 29 118 47 6 0.56
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2021 Oct 21.0
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