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Updated: 2021 OCT 21, 16:54 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Nov 18 UT, the 48 km diameter asteroid (1092) Lilium will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Aries for observers along a path across New Zealand, along the west coast of the North Island south of Auckland, and the west coast of the South Island, at low elevation.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.51 mag to 15.31 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.450 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 1805-01389-1 by 1092 Lilium on 2021 Nov 18
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
179 21 52 -36 1 17 10 54 52.1 27 11 -33 179 22 43 -36 28 5 179 20 56 -35 34 54 179 22 50 -36 32 3 179 20 48 -35 31 4 1.34
178 59 24 -36 14 53 10 54 54.3 26 11 -33 179 0 4 -36 41 53 178 58 38 -35 48 18 179 0 9 -36 45 53 178 58 31 -35 44 26 1.34
178 36 43 -36 28 43 10 54 56.5 26 12 -33 178 37 13 -36 55 56 178 36 8 -36 1 55 178 37 16 -36 59 58 178 36 2 -35 58 1 1.34
178 13 50 -36 42 46 10 54 58.7 26 12 -32 178 14 8 -37 10 13 178 13 26 -36 15 46 178 14 10 -37 14 17 178 13 22 -36 11 50 1.34
177 50 44 -36 57 4 10 55 0.9 26 12 -32 177 50 50 -37 24 45 177 50 31 -36 29 50 177 50 50 -37 28 51 177 50 28 -36 25 52 1.34
177 27 24 -37 11 36 10 55 3.1 25 13 -32 177 27 17 -37 39 32 177 27 23 -36 44 9 177 27 15 -37 43 41 177 27 22 -36 40 9 1.34
177 3 49 -37 26 25 10 55 5.3 25 13 -32 177 3 29 -37 54 36 177 4 0 -36 58 42 177 3 25 -37 58 47 177 4 1 -36 54 40 1.34
176 39 59 -37 41 29 10 55 7.5 25 14 -31 176 39 25 -38 9 56 176 40 23 -37 13 31 176 39 19 -38 14 10 176 40 26 -37 9 27 1.34
176 15 53 -37 56 50 10 55 9.7 24 14 -31 176 15 4 -38 25 34 176 16 31 -37 28 36 176 14 56 -38 29 50 176 16 36 -37 24 30 1.34
175 51 30 -38 12 29 10 55 11.9 24 14 -31 175 50 26 -38 41 31 175 52 23 -37 43 58 175 50 15 -38 45 49 175 52 30 -37 39 50 1.35
175 26 49 -38 28 26 10 55 14.1 24 15 -30 175 25 28 -38 57 46 175 27 57 -37 59 38 175 25 15 -39 2 8 175 28 6 -37 55 26 1.35
175 1 49 -38 44 42 10 55 16.3 23 15 -30 175 0 11 -39 14 22 175 3 14 -38 15 35 174 59 56 -39 18 47 175 3 25 -38 11 21 1.35
174 36 30 -39 1 18 10 55 18.5 23 15 -29 174 34 34 -39 31 19 174 38 12 -38 31 52 174 34 15 -39 35 47 174 38 25 -38 27 35 1.35
174 10 49 -39 18 15 10 55 20.7 23 16 -29 174 8 34 -39 48 38 174 12 49 -38 48 29 174 8 12 -39 53 9 174 13 6 -38 44 9 1.35
173 44 46 -39 35 34 10 55 22.9 22 16 -29 173 42 10 -40 6 21 173 47 6 -39 5 26 173 41 46 -40 10 55 173 47 25 -39 1 4 1.35
173 18 20 -39 53 17 10 55 25.2 22 16 -28 173 15 21 -40 24 28 173 21 0 -39 22 46 173 14 54 -40 29 6 173 21 22 -39 18 20 1.35
172 51 28 -40 11 24 10 55 27.4 21 17 -28 172 48 6 -40 43 1 172 54 30 -39 40 29 172 47 35 -40 47 43 172 54 55 -39 36 0 1.35
172 24 9 -40 29 57 10 55 29.6 21 17 -27 172 20 22 -41 2 2 172 27 35 -39 58 36 172 19 47 -41 6 48 172 28 3 -39 54 3 1.35
171 56 22 -40 48 57 10 55 31.8 21 18 -27 171 52 8 -41 21 32 172 0 13 -40 17 9 171 51 28 -41 26 23 172 0 45 -40 12 33 1.35
171 28 3 -41 8 27 10 55 34.0 20 18 -27 171 23 20 -41 41 33 171 32 21 -40 36 10 171 22 36 -41 46 29 171 32 57 -40 31 29 1.35
170 59 12 -41 28 28 10 55 36.2 20 18 -26 170 53 57 -42 2 8 171 3 59 -40 55 40 170 53 8 -42 7 10 171 4 39 -40 50 55 1.35
170 29 45 -41 49 3 10 55 38.4 19 19 -26 170 23 56 -42 23 19 170 35 4 -41 15 41 170 23 2 -42 28 26 170 35 48 -41 10 51 1.35
169 59 40 -42 10 13 10 55 40.6 19 19 -25 169 53 13 -42 45 9 170 5 33 -41 36 15 169 52 13 -42 50 22 170 6 22 -41 31 20 1.35
169 28 52 -42 32 1 10 55 42.8 18 20 -25 169 21 45 -43 7 40 169 35 22 -41 57 24 169 20 38 -43 13 0 169 36 17 -41 52 24 1.35
168 57 20 -42 54 31 10 55 45.0 18 20 -24 168 49 27 -43 30 57 169 4 30 -42 19 12 168 48 13 -43 36 24 169 5 30 -42 14 6 1.35
168 24 57 -43 17 46 10 55 47.2 17 20 -24 168 16 14 -43 55 3 168 32 52 -42 41 42 168 14 53 -44 0 38 168 33 59 -42 36 29 1.35
167 51 39 -43 41 51 10 55 49.4 17 21 -23 167 42 1 -44 20 4 168 0 24 -43 4 56 167 40 32 -44 25 47 168 1 38 -42 59 37 1.36
167 17 21 -44 6 50 10 55 51.6 16 21 -23 167 6 41 -44 46 4 167 27 1 -43 29 0 167 5 2 -44 51 58 167 28 22 -43 23 33 1.36
166 41 56 -44 32 48 10 55 53.8 16 22 -22 166 30 6 -45 13 12 166 52 37 -43 53 57 166 28 15 -45 19 16 166 54 6 -43 48 22 1.36
166 5 15 -44 59 53 10 55 56.0 15 22 -22 165 52 5 -45 41 34 166 17 6 -44 19 53 165 50 2 -45 47 51 166 18 44 -44 14 9 1.36
165 27 8 -45 28 12 10 55 58.2 15 23 -21 165 12 28 -46 11 22 165 40 18 -44 46 56 165 10 10 -46 17 53 165 42 7 -44 41 1 1.36
164 47 24 -45 57 56 10 56 0.4 14 23 -20 164 30 57 -46 42 47 165 2 5 -45 15 13 164 28 22 -46 49 35 165 4 6 -45 9 6 1.36
164 5 47 -46 29 16 10 56 2.6 13 24 -20 163 47 15 -47 16 6 164 22 13 -45 44 54 163 44 20 -47 23 13 164 24 29 -45 38 34 1.36
163 21 59 -47 2 29 10 56 4.8 13 24 -19 163 0 56 -47 51 40 163 40 29 -46 16 11 162 57 35 -47 59 10 163 43 1 -46 9 36 1.37
162 35 33 -47 37 55 10 56 7.0 12 25 -18 162 11 25 -48 29 56 162 56 32 -46 49 20 162 7 33 -48 37 55 162 59 24 -46 42 26 1.37
161 45 55 -48 16 2 10 56 9.2 11 26 -17 161 17 53 -49 11 35 162 9 58 -47 24 41 161 13 21 -49 20 10 162 13 13 -47 17 26 1.38
160 52 18 -48 57 30 10 56 11.4 10 26 -16 160 19 7 -49 57 36 161 20 12 -48 2 41 160 13 41 -50 7 0 161 23 56 -47 55 0 1.38
159 53 28 -49 43 16 10 56 13.6 9 27 -15 159 13 8 -50 49 37 160 26 26 -48 44 0 159 6 23 -51 0 9 160 30 48 -48 35 46 1.39
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2021 Oct 21.0
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