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Updated: 2021 OCT 21, 16:54 UT
Event Rank : 96
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Nov 17 UT, the 81.3 km diameter asteroid (3596) Meriones will occult a 10.5 mag star in the constellation Perseus for observers along a path across Australia from Rockhampton across southern Queensland and in to north-eastern South Australia at low and decreasing elevation.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.51 mag to 16.03 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.930 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 2853-01765-1 by 3596 Meriones on 2021 Nov 17
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
165 59 18 -12 0 59 10 58 25.3 35 12 -50 166 1 54 -12 36 58 165 56 36 -11 25 31 166 3 59 -13 7 40 165 54 15 -10 56 5 1.07
165 39 30 -12 12 3 10 58 27.3 35 13 -50 165 42 1 -12 48 10 165 36 53 -11 36 27 165 44 3 -13 19 0 165 34 35 -11 6 53 1.07
165 19 38 -12 23 17 10 58 29.3 34 13 -49 165 22 4 -12 59 34 165 17 5 -11 47 32 165 24 2 -13 30 32 165 14 51 -11 17 52 1.07
164 59 42 -12 34 42 10 58 31.4 34 13 -49 165 2 3 -13 11 9 164 57 13 -11 58 49 165 3 56 -13 42 16 164 55 3 -11 29 1 1.07
164 39 40 -12 46 19 10 58 33.4 34 13 -49 164 41 57 -13 22 55 164 37 16 -12 10 16 164 43 45 -13 54 11 164 35 10 -11 40 20 1.07
164 19 34 -12 58 6 10 58 35.4 34 14 -48 164 21 45 -13 34 53 164 17 15 -12 21 54 164 23 29 -14 6 18 164 15 13 -11 51 50 1.07
163 59 23 -13 10 6 10 58 37.5 33 14 -48 164 1 28 -13 47 3 163 57 9 -12 33 43 164 3 7 -14 18 38 163 55 11 -12 3 32 1.08
163 39 6 -13 22 17 10 58 39.5 33 14 -48 163 41 6 -13 59 26 163 36 58 -12 45 44 163 42 40 -14 31 10 163 35 4 -12 15 24 1.08
163 18 44 -13 34 40 10 58 41.6 33 14 -47 163 20 38 -14 12 1 163 16 42 -12 57 56 163 22 6 -14 43 55 163 14 52 -12 27 28 1.08
162 58 16 -13 47 16 10 58 43.6 32 15 -47 163 0 4 -14 24 48 162 56 19 -13 10 21 163 1 27 -14 56 54 162 54 34 -12 39 44 1.08
162 37 42 -14 0 5 10 58 45.6 32 15 -46 162 39 23 -14 37 49 162 35 52 -13 22 58 162 40 41 -15 10 6 162 34 11 -12 52 12 1.08
162 17 2 -14 13 6 10 58 47.7 32 15 -46 162 18 37 -14 51 4 162 15 18 -13 35 47 162 19 48 -15 23 32 162 13 43 -13 4 52 1.08
161 56 16 -14 26 22 10 58 49.7 32 15 -46 161 57 43 -15 4 33 161 54 38 -13 48 50 161 58 47 -15 37 13 161 53 8 -13 17 44 1.08
161 35 22 -14 39 51 10 58 51.8 31 16 -45 161 36 42 -15 18 16 161 33 51 -14 2 6 161 37 40 -15 51 8 161 32 27 -13 30 50 1.08
161 14 22 -14 53 34 10 58 53.8 31 16 -45 161 15 33 -15 32 14 161 12 58 -14 15 36 161 16 24 -16 5 19 161 11 39 -13 44 9 1.08
160 53 13 -15 7 33 10 58 55.8 31 16 -44 160 54 17 -15 46 27 160 51 58 -14 29 20 160 55 1 -16 19 46 160 50 45 -13 57 42 1.08
160 31 58 -15 21 46 10 58 57.9 30 16 -44 160 32 53 -16 0 56 160 30 50 -14 43 19 160 33 29 -16 34 29 160 29 43 -14 11 29 1.08
160 10 34 -15 36 15 10 58 59.9 30 17 -44 160 11 20 -16 15 41 160 9 34 -14 57 33 160 11 48 -16 49 29 160 8 34 -14 25 31 1.08
159 49 1 -15 51 0 10 59 2.0 30 17 -43 159 49 38 -16 30 44 159 48 10 -15 12 2 159 49 58 -17 4 47 159 47 17 -14 39 48 1.08
159 27 20 -16 6 2 10 59 4.0 29 17 -43 159 27 47 -16 46 3 159 26 38 -15 26 47 159 27 57 -17 20 23 159 25 52 -14 54 20 1.08
159 5 29 -16 21 21 10 59 6.0 29 17 -42 159 5 46 -17 1 41 159 4 57 -15 41 49 159 5 47 -17 36 17 159 4 19 -15 9 8 1.08
158 43 28 -16 36 58 10 59 8.1 29 17 -42 158 43 34 -17 17 38 158 43 6 -15 57 7 158 43 25 -17 52 32 158 42 36 -15 24 12 1.08
158 21 17 -16 52 53 10 59 10.1 28 18 -42 158 21 12 -17 33 54 158 21 6 -16 12 44 158 20 53 -18 9 6 158 20 44 -15 39 34 1.08
157 58 55 -17 9 8 10 59 12.1 28 18 -41 157 58 38 -17 50 30 157 58 55 -16 28 39 157 58 8 -18 26 2 157 58 42 -15 55 13 1.08
157 36 22 -17 25 43 10 59 14.2 28 18 -41 157 35 52 -18 7 27 157 36 34 -16 44 53 157 35 10 -18 43 20 157 36 30 -16 11 11 1.08
157 13 37 -17 42 39 10 59 16.2 27 18 -40 157 12 53 -18 24 47 157 14 1 -17 1 27 157 11 59 -19 1 1 157 14 7 -16 27 27 1.08
156 50 39 -17 59 56 10 59 18.3 27 19 -40 156 49 40 -18 42 29 156 51 17 -17 18 21 156 48 34 -19 19 6 156 51 33 -16 44 3 1.08
156 27 28 -18 17 36 10 59 20.3 26 19 -39 156 26 14 -19 0 35 156 28 19 -17 35 37 156 24 53 -19 37 36 156 28 47 -17 1 0 1.08
156 4 2 -18 35 40 10 59 22.3 26 19 -39 156 2 32 -19 19 7 156 5 9 -17 53 15 156 0 57 -19 56 33 156 5 48 -17 18 19 1.08
155 40 22 -18 54 8 10 59 24.4 26 19 -38 155 38 35 -19 38 5 155 41 44 -18 11 17 155 36 43 -20 15 58 155 42 35 -17 35 59 1.08
155 16 25 -19 13 3 10 59 26.4 25 20 -38 155 14 20 -19 57 31 155 18 4 -18 29 43 155 12 12 -20 35 53 155 19 9 -17 54 3 1.08
154 52 12 -19 32 25 10 59 28.5 25 20 -37 154 49 47 -20 17 26 154 54 9 -18 48 34 154 47 21 -20 56 18 154 55 27 -18 12 32 1.08
154 27 41 -19 52 16 10 59 30.5 24 20 -37 154 24 55 -20 37 52 154 29 57 -19 7 53 154 22 9 -21 17 17 154 31 30 -18 31 26 1.08
154 2 51 -20 12 37 10 59 32.5 24 20 -36 153 59 42 -20 58 51 154 5 27 -19 27 41 153 56 36 -21 38 50 154 7 16 -18 50 47 1.08
153 37 40 -20 33 30 10 59 34.6 23 21 -36 153 34 7 -21 20 24 153 40 38 -19 47 58 153 30 38 -22 1 1 153 42 44 -19 10 36 1.08
153 12 7 -20 54 58 10 59 36.6 23 21 -35 153 8 8 -21 42 35 153 15 29 -20 8 47 153 4 15 -22 23 52 153 17 52 -19 30 56 1.09
152 46 11 -21 17 2 10 59 38.6 22 21 -35 152 41 43 -22 5 25 152 49 58 -20 30 9 152 37 24 -22 47 25 152 52 41 -19 51 46 1.09
152 19 49 -21 39 45 10 59 40.7 22 21 -34 152 14 51 -22 28 57 152 24 3 -20 52 8 152 10 3 -23 11 44 152 27 8 -20 13 11 1.09
151 53 0 -22 3 9 10 59 42.7 21 22 -34 151 47 29 -22 53 15 151 57 44 -21 14 44 151 42 9 -23 36 53 152 1 11 -20 35 11 1.09
151 25 41 -22 27 18 10 59 44.8 21 22 -33 151 19 33 -23 18 23 151 30 58 -21 38 1 151 13 39 -24 2 56 151 34 49 -20 57 49 1.09
150 57 50 -22 52 14 10 59 46.8 20 22 -33 150 51 2 -23 44 23 151 3 42 -22 2 2 150 44 29 -24 29 57 151 8 0 -21 21 7 1.09
150 29 24 -23 18 3 10 59 48.8 20 22 -32 150 21 51 -24 11 22 150 35 55 -22 26 50 150 14 36 -24 58 3 150 40 42 -21 45 9 1.09
150 0 19 -23 44 49 10 59 50.9 19 23 -31 149 51 57 -24 39 24 150 7 32 -22 52 28 149 43 54 -25 27 20 150 12 51 -22 9 58 1.09
149 30 31 -24 12 36 10 59 52.9 19 23 -31 149 21 14 -25 8 37 149 38 32 -23 19 2 149 12 17 -25 57 56 149 44 26 -22 35 38 1.09
148 59 56 -24 41 32 10 59 55.0 18 23 -30 148 49 37 -25 39 8 149 8 50 -23 46 37 148 39 39 -26 30 1 149 15 23 -23 2 12 1.09
148 28 28 -25 11 44 10 59 57.0 17 24 -29 148 16 59 -26 11 7 148 38 21 -24 15 18 148 5 50 -27 3 47 148 45 37 -23 29 47 1.09
147 56 0 -25 43 20 10 59 59.0 17 24 -29 147 43 10 -26 44 45 148 7 0 -24 45 13 147 30 40 -27 39 29 148 15 5 -23 58 28 1.09
147 22 24 -26 16 32 11 0 1.1 16 24 -28 147 8 1 -27 20 17 147 34 42 -25 16 29 146 53 55 -28 17 25 147 43 42 -24 28 22 1.10
146 47 30 -26 51 33 11 0 3.1 15 24 -27 146 31 18 -27 58 1 147 1 17 -25 49 19 146 15 16 -28 58 0 147 11 19 -24 59 38 1.10
146 11 6 -27 28 41 11 0 5.1 14 25 -26 145 52 42 -28 38 22 146 26 36 -26 23 53 145 34 18 -29 41 49 146 37 51 -25 32 26 1.10
145 32 54 -28 8 16 11 0 7.2 14 25 -25 145 11 49 -29 21 51 145 50 28 -27 0 28 144 50 26 -30 29 39 146 3 7 -26 6 58 1.10
144 52 32 -28 50 50 11 0 9.2 13 26 -25 144 28 6 -30 9 15 145 12 36 -27 39 25 144 2 48 -31 22 42 145 26 56 -26 43 30 1.11
144 9 30 -29 37 3 11 0 11.3 12 26 -24 143 40 41 -31 1 42 144 32 40 -28 21 11 143 9 55 -32 22 55 144 49 1 -27 22 22 1.11
143 23 1 -30 27 55 11 0 13.3 11 26 -22 142 48 12 -32 1 3 143 50 12 -29 6 23 142 9 8 -33 33 55 144 9 2 -28 4 1 1.12
142 31 55 -31 25 1 11 0 15.3 10 27 -21 141 48 9 -33 10 36 143 4 30 -29 55 55 140 54 16 -35 4 1 143 26 32 -28 49 5 1.13
141 34 8 -32 31 4 11 0 17.4 8 27 -20 140 35 0 -34 37 48 142 14 31 -30 51 10 138 59 40 -37 27 45 142 40 49 -29 38 24 1.15
140 25 23 -33 51 44 11 0 19.4 7 28 -18 138 48 18 -36 49 52 141 18 30 -31 54 26 ... .. .. .. .. .. 141 50 52 -30 33 21 1.18
138 53 5 -35 43 36 11 0 21.5 4 29 -16 ... .. .. .. .. .. 140 13 1 -33 10 13 ... .. .. .. .. .. 140 54 58 -31 36 8 1.31
Uncertainty in time = +/- 5 secs
Prediction of 2021 Oct 21.0
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