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Updated: 2021 OCT 21, 16:52 UT
Event Rank : 89
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Nov 14 UT, the 59.9 km diameter asteroid (2906) Caltech will occult a 12.1 mag star in the constellation Gemini for observers along a path across Australia, from Eden across New South Wales, south-western Queensland and The Northern Territory to Darwin.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.02 mag to 15.09 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.210 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 561-029687 by 2906 Caltech on 2021 Nov 14
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
156 50 34 -47 0 0 17 59 6.5 18 337 1 157 20 9 156 21 1 157 52 25 155 48 51 0.38
155 59 29 -46 0 0 17 59 10.2 19 337 0 156 28 29 155 30 30 157 0 7 154 58 57 0.38
155 9 33 -45 0 0 17 59 14.2 20 338 -1 155 38 1 154 41 7 156 9 4 154 10 8 0.38
154 20 41 -44 0 0 17 59 18.4 21 339 -2 154 48 39 153 52 45 155 19 8 153 22 19 0.38
153 32 47 -43 0 0 17 59 22.8 22 339 -3 154 0 16 153 5 19 154 30 14 152 35 24 0.38
152 45 46 -42 0 0 17 59 27.4 24 340 -4 153 12 48 152 18 45 153 42 17 151 49 18 0.38
151 59 33 -41 0 0 17 59 32.2 25 341 -5 152 26 10 151 32 57 152 55 11 151 3 57 0.39
151 14 4 -40 0 0 17 59 37.2 26 341 -6 151 40 17 150 47 51 152 8 52 150 19 17 0.39
150 29 14 -39 0 0 17 59 42.5 27 342 -7 150 55 5 150 3 24 151 23 16 149 35 13 0.39
149 45 1 -38 0 0 17 59 47.9 28 342 -8 150 10 31 149 19 31 150 38 18 148 51 43 0.39
149 1 20 -37 0 0 17 59 53.6 29 343 -9 149 26 30 148 36 9 149 53 56 148 8 43 0.39
148 18 8 -36 0 0 17 59 59.4 30 343 -10 148 43 0 147 53 16 149 10 5 147 26 9 0.39
147 35 22 -35 0 0 18 0 5.4 31 344 -11 147 59 56 147 10 47 148 26 43 146 43 59 0.39
146 53 0 -34 0 0 18 0 11.7 33 344 -12 147 17 18 146 28 41 147 43 46 146 2 11 0.39
146 10 58 -33 0 0 18 0 18.1 34 345 -13 146 35 0 145 46 55 147 1 12 145 20 41 0.39
145 29 14 -32 0 0 18 0 24.8 35 346 -14 145 53 2 145 5 25 146 18 58 144 39 26 0.39
144 47 46 -31 0 0 18 0 31.6 36 346 -15 145 11 21 144 24 10 145 37 2 143 58 26 0.39
144 6 31 -30 0 0 18 0 38.6 37 347 -16 144 29 53 143 43 8 144 55 20 143 17 37 0.39
143 25 27 -29 0 0 18 0 45.8 38 347 -17 143 48 37 143 2 15 144 13 52 142 36 57 0.39
142 44 32 -28 0 0 18 0 53.2 39 348 -18 143 7 31 142 21 31 143 32 34 141 56 25 0.39
142 3 44 -27 0 0 18 1 0.8 40 348 -19 142 26 33 141 40 53 142 51 24 141 15 58 0.39
141 23 0 -26 0 0 18 1 8.6 41 349 -20 141 45 40 141 0 19 142 10 21 140 35 34 0.39
140 42 20 -25 0 0 18 1 16.5 42 350 -21 141 4 52 140 19 47 141 29 23 139 55 11 0.39
140 1 41 -24 0 0 18 1 24.7 44 350 -22 140 24 4 139 39 16 140 48 27 139 14 48 0.39
139 21 1 -23 0 0 18 1 33.0 45 351 -23 139 43 17 138 58 43 140 7 32 138 34 23 0.39
138 40 19 -22 0 0 18 1 41.5 46 352 -24 139 2 28 138 18 8 139 26 36 137 53 55 0.39
137 59 32 -21 0 0 18 1 50.1 47 352 -25 138 21 36 137 37 27 138 45 37 137 13 20 0.39
137 18 40 -20 0 0 18 1 58.9 48 353 -26 137 40 38 136 56 39 138 4 33 136 32 38 0.39
136 37 39 -19 0 0 18 2 7.9 49 354 -28 136 59 33 136 15 44 137 23 23 135 51 47 0.39
135 56 30 -18 0 0 18 2 17.1 50 355 -29 136 18 20 135 34 38 136 42 5 135 10 46 0.39
135 15 9 -17 0 0 18 2 26.5 51 356 -30 135 36 55 134 53 20 136 0 37 134 29 32 0.39
134 33 35 -16 0 0 18 2 36.0 52 356 -31 134 55 19 134 11 49 135 18 58 133 48 3 0.39
133 51 47 -15 0 0 18 2 45.6 53 357 -32 134 13 29 133 30 3 134 37 5 133 6 19 0.39
133 9 42 -14 0 0 18 2 55.4 54 358 -33 133 31 22 132 48 0 133 54 57 132 24 17 0.39
132 27 19 -13 0 0 18 3 5.4 55 359 -34 132 48 59 132 5 38 133 12 32 131 41 56 0.39
131 44 37 -12 0 0 18 3 15.6 56 0 -35 132 6 16 131 22 55 132 29 49 130 59 13 0.39
131 1 32 -11 0 0 18 3 25.9 57 2 -36 131 23 12 130 39 50 131 46 45 130 16 8 0.39
130 18 4 -10 0 0 18 3 36.3 58 3 -37 130 39 45 129 56 21 131 3 19 129 32 37 0.39
129 34 11 - 9 0 0 18 3 46.9 59 4 -38 129 55 53 129 12 25 130 19 29 128 48 40 0.39
128 49 49 - 8 0 0 18 3 57.7 60 6 -39 129 11 34 128 28 2 129 35 13 128 4 13 0.39
128 4 58 - 7 0 0 18 4 8.5 61 7 -41 128 26 46 127 43 8 128 50 28 127 19 15 0.38
127 19 35 - 6 0 0 18 4 19.6 62 9 -42 127 41 27 126 57 41 128 5 12 126 33 44 0.38
126 33 38 - 5 0 0 18 4 30.8 63 10 -43 126 55 34 126 11 39 127 19 25 125 47 38 0.38
125 47 5 - 4 0 0 18 4 42.1 63 12 -44 126 9 6 125 25 1 126 33 2 125 0 53 0.38
124 59 53 - 3 0 0 18 4 53.6 64 14 -45 125 22 0 124 37 42 125 46 2 124 13 28 0.38
124 11 59 - 2 0 0 18 5 5.2 65 16 -46 124 34 13 123 49 42 124 58 22 123 25 20 0.38
123 23 21 - 1 0 0 18 5 17.0 66 19 -47 123 45 42 123 0 56 124 9 59 122 36 25 0.38
122 33 56 0 0 0 18 5 28.9 66 21 -49 122 56 25 122 11 22 123 20 52 121 46 42 0.38
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2021 Oct 21.0
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