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Updated: 2021 Sep 02, 06:31 UT
Event Rank : 83
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Oct 16 UT, the 39 km diameter asteroid (188) Menippe will occult a 12.2 mag star in the constellation Pegasus for observers along a slightly uncertain path across Queensland, New South Wales, eastern Victoria and Tasmania.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.22 mag to 13.0 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.7 seconds. Note nearly full moon nearby.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 498-148573 by 188 Menippe on 2021 Oct 16
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
148 16 12 -18 4 24 12 30 53.4 57 325 -56 148 28 4 -18 6 55 148 4 21 -18 1 53 148 43 3 -18 10 7 147 49 28 -17 58 43 0.43
148 13 47 -18 28 32 12 30 59.2 56 325 -56 148 25 41 -18 31 4 148 1 55 -18 26 0 148 40 42 -18 34 16 147 46 59 -18 22 50 0.43
148 11 26 -18 52 46 12 31 5.0 56 325 -56 148 23 22 -18 55 18 147 59 32 -18 50 14 148 38 26 -18 58 31 147 44 33 -18 47 3 0.43
148 9 9 -19 17 5 12 31 10.8 56 326 -55 148 21 7 -19 19 38 147 57 13 -19 14 33 148 36 14 -19 22 52 147 42 11 -19 11 21 0.43
148 6 56 -19 41 30 12 31 16.6 55 326 -55 148 18 56 -19 44 4 147 54 57 -19 38 57 148 34 6 -19 47 19 147 39 54 -19 35 45 0.43
148 4 47 -20 6 2 12 31 22.4 55 326 -55 148 16 50 -20 8 36 147 52 46 -20 3 28 148 32 2 -20 11 51 147 37 40 -20 0 15 0.44
148 2 42 -20 30 39 12 31 28.3 55 327 -54 148 14 47 -20 33 14 147 50 39 -20 28 5 148 30 2 -20 36 30 147 35 30 -20 24 51 0.44
148 0 42 -20 55 22 12 31 34.1 54 327 -54 148 12 49 -20 57 58 147 48 36 -20 52 47 148 28 7 -21 1 15 147 33 24 -20 49 33 0.44
147 58 46 -21 20 12 12 31 39.9 54 327 -54 148 10 55 -21 22 49 147 46 37 -21 17 37 148 26 16 -21 26 6 147 31 22 -21 14 21 0.44
147 56 54 -21 45 9 12 31 45.7 54 328 -53 148 9 6 -21 47 46 147 44 43 -21 42 33 148 24 30 -21 51 4 147 29 24 -21 39 16 0.44
147 55 6 -22 10 12 12 31 51.5 53 328 -53 148 7 21 -22 12 50 147 42 53 -22 7 35 148 22 49 -22 16 9 147 27 31 -22 4 18 0.44
147 53 23 -22 35 22 12 31 57.3 53 328 -53 148 5 41 -22 38 1 147 41 7 -22 32 45 148 21 12 -22 41 21 147 25 42 -22 29 27 0.44
147 51 45 -23 0 40 12 32 3.1 53 329 -52 148 4 5 -23 3 19 147 39 27 -22 58 1 148 19 40 -23 6 40 147 23 58 -22 54 42 0.44
147 50 12 -23 26 4 12 32 8.9 52 329 -52 148 2 35 -23 28 44 147 37 50 -23 23 25 148 18 13 -23 32 6 147 22 18 -23 20 5 0.44
147 48 43 -23 51 36 12 32 14.7 52 329 -52 148 1 9 -23 54 17 147 36 19 -23 48 56 148 16 51 -23 57 40 147 20 43 -23 45 35 0.44
147 47 20 -24 17 16 12 32 20.5 51 329 -51 147 59 49 -24 19 57 147 34 53 -24 14 35 148 15 35 -24 23 22 147 19 13 -24 11 13 0.44
147 46 2 -24 43 3 12 32 26.3 51 330 -51 147 58 34 -24 45 46 147 33 31 -24 40 22 148 14 24 -24 49 11 147 17 48 -24 36 59 0.44
147 44 49 -25 8 59 12 32 32.1 51 330 -50 147 57 24 -25 11 42 147 32 15 -25 6 16 148 13 18 -25 15 9 147 16 28 -25 2 53 0.44
147 43 41 -25 35 3 12 32 37.9 50 330 -50 147 56 20 -25 37 47 147 31 4 -25 32 19 148 12 18 -25 41 14 147 15 13 -25 28 54 0.44
147 42 39 -26 1 15 12 32 43.7 50 330 -50 147 55 21 -26 4 0 147 29 59 -25 58 31 148 11 24 -26 7 29 147 14 3 -25 55 5 0.44
147 41 43 -26 27 36 12 32 49.5 50 331 -49 147 54 28 -26 30 22 147 28 59 -26 24 51 148 10 36 -26 33 52 147 12 59 -26 21 24 0.44
147 40 53 -26 54 6 12 32 55.3 49 331 -49 147 53 42 -26 56 53 147 28 5 -26 51 20 148 9 54 -27 0 25 147 12 1 -26 47 52 0.44
147 40 8 -27 20 46 12 33 1.1 49 331 -49 147 53 1 -27 23 34 147 27 17 -27 17 59 148 9 18 -27 27 6 147 11 8 -27 14 29 0.44
147 39 31 -27 47 35 12 33 6.9 48 331 -48 147 52 27 -27 50 24 147 26 36 -27 44 46 148 8 49 -27 53 57 147 10 22 -27 41 15 0.44
147 38 59 -28 14 33 12 33 12.8 48 332 -48 147 52 0 -28 17 23 147 26 0 -28 11 44 148 8 26 -28 20 59 147 9 41 -28 8 11 0.44
147 38 34 -28 41 42 12 33 18.6 48 332 -47 147 51 39 -28 44 33 147 25 31 -28 38 51 148 8 11 -28 48 10 147 9 7 -28 35 18 0.44
147 38 17 -29 9 1 12 33 24.4 47 332 -47 147 51 26 -29 11 53 147 25 9 -29 6 9 148 8 3 -29 15 31 147 8 40 -29 2 34 0.44
147 38 6 -29 36 31 12 33 30.2 47 332 -47 147 51 19 -29 39 24 147 24 54 -29 33 38 148 8 2 -29 43 4 147 8 20 -29 30 1 0.44
147 38 3 -30 4 11 12 33 36.0 46 332 -46 147 51 21 -30 7 6 147 24 47 -30 1 17 148 8 10 -30 10 47 147 8 6 -29 57 39 0.44
147 38 7 -30 32 3 12 33 41.8 46 333 -46 147 51 30 -30 34 59 147 24 47 -30 29 8 148 8 25 -30 38 42 147 8 0 -30 25 28 -0.44
147 38 20 -31 0 7 12 33 47.6 46 333 -46 147 51 47 -31 3 4 147 24 54 -30 57 10 148 8 48 -31 6 49 147 8 2 -30 53 29 -0.44
147 38 40 -31 28 23 12 33 53.4 45 333 -45 147 52 13 -31 31 21 147 25 10 -31 25 25 148 9 20 -31 35 8 147 8 12 -31 21 41 -0.44
147 39 10 -31 56 51 12 33 59.2 45 333 -45 147 52 48 -31 59 51 147 25 34 -31 53 51 148 10 2 -32 3 39 147 8 29 -31 50 6 -0.44
147 39 48 -32 25 31 12 34 5.0 44 333 -44 147 53 31 -32 28 33 147 26 7 -32 22 31 148 10 52 -32 32 23 147 8 56 -32 18 44 -0.45
147 40 36 -32 54 26 12 34 10.8 44 333 -44 147 54 24 -32 57 29 147 26 49 -32 51 23 148 11 52 -33 1 21 147 9 31 -32 47 35 -0.45
147 41 33 -33 23 33 12 34 16.6 43 334 -44 147 55 28 -33 26 38 147 27 41 -33 20 29 148 13 3 -33 30 32 147 10 15 -33 16 39 -0.45
147 42 40 -33 52 55 12 34 22.4 43 334 -43 147 56 41 -33 56 2 147 28 42 -33 49 50 148 14 24 -33 59 58 147 11 9 -33 45 57 -0.45
147 43 58 -34 22 32 12 34 28.2 42 334 -43 147 58 5 -34 25 40 147 29 54 -34 19 25 148 15 56 -34 29 38 147 12 14 -34 15 30 -0.45
147 45 27 -34 52 23 12 34 34.0 42 334 -42 147 59 41 -34 55 33 147 31 17 -34 49 14 148 17 40 -34 59 34 147 13 28 -34 45 18 -0.45
147 47 8 -35 22 31 12 34 39.8 41 334 -42 148 1 28 -35 25 42 147 32 51 -35 19 20 148 19 36 -35 29 45 147 14 54 -35 15 21 -0.45
147 49 1 -35 52 54 12 34 45.6 41 334 -41 148 3 28 -35 56 8 147 34 36 -35 49 41 148 21 44 -36 0 13 147 16 31 -35 45 40 -0.45
147 51 6 -36 23 34 12 34 51.5 41 334 -41 148 5 40 -36 26 50 147 36 35 -36 20 20 148 24 6 -36 30 58 147 18 21 -36 16 16 -0.45
147 53 25 -36 54 32 12 34 57.3 40 334 -41 148 8 7 -36 57 50 147 38 46 -36 51 16 148 26 42 -37 2 0 147 20 23 -36 47 9 -0.45
147 55 58 -37 25 48 12 35 3.1 40 335 -40 148 10 48 -37 29 8 147 41 11 -37 22 29 148 29 33 -37 33 21 147 22 38 -37 18 20 -0.45
147 58 46 -37 57 23 12 35 8.9 39 335 -40 148 13 44 -38 0 45 147 43 51 -37 54 2 148 32 40 -38 5 1 147 25 8 -37 49 50 -0.45
148 1 49 -38 29 17 12 35 14.7 39 335 -39 148 16 56 -38 32 42 147 46 46 -38 25 54 148 36 3 -38 37 1 147 27 52 -38 21 39 -0.45
148 5 9 -39 1 32 12 35 20.5 38 335 -39 148 20 24 -39 4 59 147 49 57 -38 58 6 148 39 43 -39 9 22 147 30 52 -38 53 48 -0.45
148 8 46 -39 34 8 12 35 26.3 37 335 -38 148 24 11 -39 37 38 147 53 25 -39 30 40 148 43 42 -39 42 4 147 34 9 -39 26 19 -0.45
148 12 42 -40 7 6 12 35 32.1 37 335 -38 148 28 17 -40 10 39 147 57 11 -40 3 35 148 48 0 -40 15 8 147 37 43 -39 59 11 -0.45
148 16 58 -40 40 28 12 35 37.9 36 335 -37 148 32 43 -40 44 3 148 1 17 -40 36 54 148 52 39 -40 48 36 147 41 36 -40 32 26 -0.45
148 21 34 -41 14 13 12 35 43.7 36 335 -37 148 37 30 -41 17 52 148 5 42 -41 10 36 148 57 40 -41 22 28 147 45 48 -41 6 5 -0.45
148 26 33 -41 48 24 12 35 49.5 35 335 -36 148 42 40 -41 52 6 148 10 30 -41 44 44 149 3 5 -41 56 46 147 50 22 -41 40 9 -0.45
148 31 56 -42 23 2 12 35 55.3 35 335 -36 148 48 15 -42 26 46 148 15 41 -42 19 18 149 8 55 -42 31 31 147 55 18 -42 14 39 -0.45
148 37 44 -42 58 7 12 36 1.1 34 335 -35 148 54 15 -43 1 55 148 21 17 -42 54 20 149 15 11 -43 6 45 148 0 39 -42 49 36 -0.45
148 43 59 -43 33 41 12 36 6.9 34 335 -35 149 0 44 -43 37 33 148 27 19 -43 29 51 149 21 57 -43 42 28 148 6 25 -43 25 3 -0.45
148 50 44 -44 9 47 12 36 12.7 33 335 -34 149 7 43 -44 13 43 148 33 50 -44 5 52 149 29 14 -44 18 42 148 12 38 -44 0 59 -0.45
148 58 0 -44 46 24 12 36 18.5 32 335 -34 149 15 14 -44 50 24 148 40 52 -44 42 26 149 37 4 -44 55 29 148 19 22 -44 37 28 -0.45
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