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Updated: 2021 Sep 02, 06:27 UT
Event Rank : 22
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Oct 13 UT, the 10.3 km diameter asteroid (1474) Beira will occult a 10.3 mag star in the constellation Vulpecula for observers along a large uncertainty path across West Australia.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.91 mag to 14.18 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most a brief 1.95 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 578-123882 by 1474 Beira on 2021 Oct 13
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
127 54 19 -37 0 0 12 14 45.5 26 346 -29 127 58 54 127 49 44 128 26 31 127 22 4 0.52
127 12 42 -36 0 0 12 14 57.2 27 347 -29 127 17 14 127 8 10 127 44 34 126 40 48 0.53
126 31 11 -35 0 0 12 15 9.2 28 347 -29 126 35 41 126 26 41 127 2 44 125 59 36 0.53
125 49 44 -34 0 0 12 15 21.8 29 348 -29 125 54 11 125 45 17 126 20 59 125 18 26 0.53
125 8 19 -33 0 0 12 15 34.8 31 348 -29 125 12 44 125 3 54 125 39 17 124 37 18 0.53
124 26 54 -32 0 0 12 15 48.3 32 349 -29 124 31 16 124 22 31 124 57 37 123 56 8 0.53
123 45 26 -31 0 0 12 16 2.2 33 349 -29 123 49 47 123 41 6 124 15 55 123 14 54 0.53
123 3 55 -30 0 0 12 16 16.5 34 350 -29 123 8 14 122 59 36 123 34 10 122 33 36 0.53
122 22 18 -29 0 0 12 16 31.3 35 351 -29 122 26 35 122 18 1 122 52 21 121 52 11 0.53
121 40 33 -28 0 0 12 16 46.6 36 351 -29 121 44 49 121 36 18 122 10 25 121 10 38 0.53
120 58 39 -27 0 0 12 17 2.2 37 352 -29 121 2 53 120 54 25 121 28 21 120 28 54 0.53
120 16 34 -26 0 0 12 17 18.3 38 352 -29 120 20 47 120 12 22 120 46 7 119 46 58 0.53
119 34 17 -25 0 0 12 17 34.9 39 353 -29 119 38 28 119 30 5 120 3 41 119 4 49 0.53
118 51 45 -24 0 0 12 17 51.9 40 354 -29 118 55 55 118 47 34 119 21 1 118 22 24 0.52
118 8 57 -23 0 0 12 18 9.3 41 354 -29 118 13 6 118 4 47 118 38 7 117 39 43 0.52
117 25 51 -22 0 0 12 18 27.1 42 355 -29 117 30 0 117 21 42 117 54 55 116 56 42 0.52
116 42 26 -21 0 0 12 18 45.3 43 356 -29 116 46 34 116 38 18 117 11 25 116 13 22 0.52
115 58 40 -20 0 0 12 19 4.0 44 356 -28 116 2 47 115 54 32 116 27 35 115 29 40 0.52
115 14 31 -19 0 0 12 19 23.1 45 357 -28 115 18 38 115 10 24 115 43 23 114 45 34 0.52
114 29 57 -18 0 0 12 19 42.6 46 358 -28 114 34 4 114 25 50 114 58 47 114 1 2 0.52
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
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