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Updated: 2021 Sep 02, 06:19 UT
Event Rank : 96
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Oct 05 UT, the 77 km diameter asteroid (613) Ginevra will occult a 10.4 mag star in the constellation Taurus for observers along a path across eastern Victoria, south-western New South Wales, north-eastern South Australia, Northern Territory and northern West Australia, passing over Albury-Wodonga, and Alice Springs.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.82 mag to 14.23 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 15.2 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 1806-00236-1 by 613 Ginevra on 2021 Oct 5
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
150 59 45 -40 0 0 18 59 46.6 15 328 -5 151 39 17 150 20 15 152 12 26 149 47 7 0.47
149 55 1 -39 0 0 18 59 54.6 16 328 -6 150 33 59 149 16 4 151 6 40 148 43 24 0.47
148 51 11 -38 0 0 19 0 3.3 17 329 -7 149 29 37 148 12 44 150 1 51 147 40 30 0.47
147 48 8 -37 0 0 19 0 12.6 18 330 -8 148 26 5 147 10 10 148 57 55 146 38 19 0.48
146 45 47 -36 0 0 19 0 22.5 20 330 -9 147 23 18 146 8 15 147 54 44 145 36 47 0.48
145 44 3 -35 0 0 19 0 33.1 21 331 -10 146 21 8 145 6 56 146 52 14 144 35 47 0.48
144 42 51 -34 0 0 19 0 44.4 22 332 -11 145 19 33 144 6 6 145 50 19 143 35 17 0.48
143 42 6 -33 0 0 19 0 56.2 23 332 -12 144 18 28 143 5 43 144 48 55 142 35 10 0.48
142 41 45 -32 0 0 19 1 8.7 25 333 -13 143 17 47 142 5 41 143 47 58 141 35 24 0.48
141 41 43 -31 0 0 19 1 21.8 26 333 -14 142 17 27 141 5 56 142 47 23 140 35 55 0.48
140 41 56 -30 0 0 19 1 35.6 27 334 -15 141 17 24 140 6 26 141 47 6 139 36 37 0.49
139 42 22 -29 0 0 19 1 49.9 28 335 -16 140 17 34 139 7 6 140 47 3 138 37 29 0.49
138 42 55 -28 0 0 19 2 4.9 30 335 -17 139 17 54 138 7 52 139 47 12 137 38 26 0.49
137 43 33 -27 0 0 19 2 20.5 31 336 -19 138 18 20 137 8 42 138 47 28 136 39 26 0.49
136 44 12 -26 0 0 19 2 36.7 32 337 -20 137 18 49 136 9 32 137 47 47 135 40 24 0.49
135 44 50 -25 0 0 19 2 53.6 33 337 -21 136 19 17 135 10 18 136 48 7 134 41 18 0.49
134 45 23 -24 0 0 19 3 11.0 35 338 -22 135 19 42 134 10 59 135 48 25 133 42 5 0.49
133 45 47 -23 0 0 19 3 29.1 36 338 -23 134 20 0 133 11 30 134 48 37 132 42 41 0.49
132 46 1 -22 0 0 19 3 47.8 37 339 -24 133 20 8 132 11 48 133 48 40 131 43 4 0.49
131 46 0 -21 0 0 19 4 7.0 38 340 -25 132 20 3 131 11 51 132 48 31 130 43 10 0.49
130 45 41 -20 0 0 19 4 26.9 40 341 -26 131 19 41 130 11 36 131 48 7 129 42 56 0.48
129 45 3 -19 0 0 19 4 47.4 41 341 -27 130 19 1 129 10 59 130 47 25 128 42 20 0.48
128 44 1 -18 0 0 19 5 8.5 42 342 -28 129 17 58 128 9 57 129 46 22 127 41 18 0.48
127 42 32 -17 0 0 19 5 30.3 43 343 -30 128 16 30 127 8 27 128 44 54 126 39 47 0.48
126 40 33 -16 0 0 19 5 52.6 44 344 -31 127 14 34 126 6 26 127 42 59 125 37 44 0.48
125 38 1 -15 0 0 19 6 15.5 46 344 -32 126 12 5 125 3 50 126 40 33 124 35 5 0.48
124 34 53 -14 0 0 19 6 39.1 47 345 -33 125 9 2 124 0 37 125 37 33 123 31 47 0.48
123 31 5 -13 0 0 19 7 3.3 48 346 -34 124 5 19 122 56 42 124 33 56 122 27 47 0.48
122 26 33 -12 0 0 19 7 28.0 49 347 -35 123 0 55 121 52 2 123 29 37 121 23 0 0.48
121 21 14 -11 0 0 19 7 53.5 50 348 -37 121 55 45 120 46 34 122 24 34 120 17 23 0.48
120 15 3 -10 0 0 19 8 19.5 52 350 -38 120 49 45 119 40 12 121 18 43 119 10 52 0.47
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