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Updated: 2021 JUL 15, 18:00 UT
Event Rank : 100
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Sep 09 UT, the 80 km diameter asteroid (784) Pickeringia will occult a 11.6 mag star in the constellation Auriga for observers along a path across south-eastern Australia from Portland in early morning twilight across western Victoria and New South Wales to south-eastern Queensland about sunrise, all at low elevation.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.51 mag to 16.07 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.2 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 619-028775 by 784 Pickeringia on 2021 Sep 9
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
137 35 48 -43 10 13 19 52 42.7 10 20 -13 138 2 2 -41 38 35 136 59 45 -44 57 58 138 5 4 -41 27 5 136 53 44 -45 14 21 1.18
138 17 43 -42 23 26 19 52 44.3 11 19 -13 138 39 49 -40 57 45 137 48 20 -44 1 34 138 42 24 -40 46 53 137 43 35 -44 16 8 1.20
138 56 40 -41 40 33 19 52 45.9 12 19 -12 139 15 31 -40 19 39 138 32 13 -43 11 29 139 17 44 -40 9 19 138 28 20 -43 24 47 1.21
139 33 17 -41 0 47 19 52 47.5 13 19 -12 139 49 28 -39 43 50 139 12 38 -42 26 5 139 51 23 -39 33 57 139 9 23 -42 38 25 1.21
140 7 59 -40 23 35 19 52 49.1 13 18 -12 140 21 56 -39 9 58 139 50 21 -41 44 19 140 23 36 -39 0 28 139 47 37 -41 55 54 1.22
140 41 4 -39 48 33 19 52 50.7 14 18 -11 140 53 8 -38 37 48 140 25 56 -41 5 29 140 54 35 -38 28 38 140 23 36 -41 16 26 1.23
141 12 47 -39 15 22 19 52 52.4 15 17 -11 141 23 14 -38 7 6 140 59 45 -40 29 4 141 24 29 -37 58 14 140 57 45 -40 39 31 1.23
141 43 19 -38 43 47 19 52 54.0 15 17 -10 141 52 22 -37 37 43 141 32 3 -39 54 42 141 53 26 -37 29 7 141 30 20 -40 4 43 1.23
142 12 48 -38 13 38 19 52 55.6 16 17 -10 142 20 37 -37 9 30 142 3 5 -39 22 7 142 21 33 -37 1 8 142 1 36 -39 31 45 1.24
142 41 23 -37 44 44 19 52 57.2 17 16 -10 142 48 5 -36 42 21 142 33 0 -38 51 4 142 48 53 -36 34 12 142 31 43 -39 0 23 1.24
143 9 8 -37 16 58 19 52 58.8 17 16 -9 143 14 52 -36 16 10 143 1 56 -38 21 24 143 15 32 -36 8 12 143 0 50 -38 30 25 1.24
143 36 9 -36 50 14 19 53 0.4 18 15 -9 143 41 0 -35 50 51 143 30 1 -37 52 56 143 41 34 -35 43 4 143 29 4 -38 1 41 1.24
144 2 30 -36 24 25 19 53 2.0 18 15 -9 144 6 33 -35 26 21 143 57 19 -37 25 34 144 7 2 -35 18 43 143 56 30 -37 34 6 1.24
144 28 15 -35 59 28 19 53 3.7 19 15 -8 144 31 35 -35 2 35 144 23 54 -36 59 12 144 31 58 -34 55 6 144 23 14 -37 7 31 1.25
144 53 27 -35 35 17 19 53 5.3 19 14 -8 144 56 7 -34 39 31 144 49 52 -36 33 44 144 56 25 -34 32 10 144 49 19 -36 41 51 1.25
145 18 9 -35 11 50 19 53 6.9 20 14 -8 145 20 12 -34 17 5 145 15 16 -36 9 6 145 20 25 -34 9 52 145 14 48 -36 17 2 1.25
145 42 22 -34 49 4 19 53 8.5 20 14 -7 145 43 51 -33 55 16 145 40 7 -35 45 13 145 44 1 -33 48 10 145 39 45 -35 53 0 1.25
146 6 9 -34 26 55 19 53 10.1 20 14 -7 146 7 8 -33 34 0 146 4 30 -35 22 3 146 7 13 -33 27 0 146 4 13 -35 29 42 1.25
146 29 32 -34 5 21 19 53 11.7 21 13 -7 146 30 2 -33 13 16 146 28 26 -34 59 33 146 30 4 -33 6 22 146 28 14 -35 7 3 1.25
146 52 33 -33 44 20 19 53 13.4 21 13 -6 146 52 36 -32 53 1 146 51 57 -34 37 40 146 52 35 -32 46 14 146 51 49 -34 45 2 1.25
147 15 13 -33 23 51 19 53 15.0 22 13 -6 147 14 51 -32 33 15 147 15 5 -34 16 21 147 14 46 -32 26 33 147 15 1 -34 23 36 1.26
147 37 34 -33 3 50 19 53 16.6 22 12 -6 147 36 49 -32 13 56 147 37 51 -33 55 34 147 36 41 -32 7 19 147 37 51 -34 2 42 1.26
147 59 36 -32 44 17 19 53 18.2 22 12 -5 147 58 29 -31 55 1 148 0 18 -33 35 18 147 58 18 -31 48 30 148 0 21 -33 42 20 1.26
148 21 21 -32 25 11 19 53 19.8 23 12 -5 148 19 53 -31 36 31 148 22 25 -33 15 30 148 19 40 -31 30 4 148 22 32 -33 22 26 1.26
148 42 49 -32 6 29 19 53 21.4 23 11 -5 148 41 3 -31 18 24 148 44 15 -32 56 10 148 40 47 -31 12 1 148 44 25 -33 3 1 1.26
149 4 3 -31 48 11 19 53 23.1 24 11 -4 149 1 58 -31 0 39 149 5 49 -32 37 16 149 1 40 -30 54 20 149 6 1 -32 44 1 1.26
149 25 2 -31 30 16 19 53 24.7 24 11 -4 149 22 40 -30 43 15 149 27 6 -32 18 46 149 22 20 -30 37 0 149 27 22 -32 25 26 1.26
149 45 47 -31 12 42 19 53 26.3 24 11 -4 149 43 9 -30 26 10 149 48 10 -32 0 39 149 42 47 -30 19 59 149 48 27 -32 7 15 1.26
150 6 20 -30 55 29 19 53 27.9 25 10 -3 150 3 26 -30 9 25 150 8 59 -31 42 55 150 3 2 -30 3 18 150 9 19 -31 49 26 1.26
150 26 40 -30 38 35 19 53 29.5 25 10 -3 150 23 32 -29 52 58 150 29 35 -31 25 32 150 23 6 -29 46 54 150 29 57 -31 31 58 1.26
150 46 49 -30 22 0 19 53 31.1 25 10 -3 150 43 27 -29 36 49 150 49 59 -31 8 29 150 42 59 -29 30 49 150 50 23 -31 14 52 1.26
151 6 46 -30 5 44 19 53 32.7 26 9 -2 151 3 11 -29 20 57 151 10 11 -30 51 45 151 2 42 -29 15 0 151 10 37 -30 58 4 1.26
151 26 34 -29 49 45 19 53 34.4 26 9 -2 151 22 46 -29 5 22 151 30 11 -30 35 21 151 22 15 -28 59 27 151 30 40 -30 41 36 1.27
151 46 11 -29 34 3 19 53 36.0 26 9 -2 151 42 11 -28 50 2 151 50 1 -30 19 14 151 41 38 -28 44 10 151 50 32 -30 25 26 1.27
152 5 39 -29 18 37 19 53 37.6 26 9 -1 152 1 28 -28 34 57 152 9 41 -30 3 25 152 0 53 -28 29 8 152 10 14 -30 9 33 1.27
152 24 57 -29 3 26 19 53 39.2 27 8 -1 152 20 35 -28 20 8 152 29 12 -29 47 52 152 19 59 -28 14 21 152 29 45 -29 53 57 1.27
152 44 7 -28 48 31 19 53 40.8 27 8 -1 152 39 35 -28 5 32 152 48 33 -29 32 35 152 38 57 -27 59 48 152 49 8 -29 38 37 1.27
153 3 9 -28 33 51 19 53 42.4 27 8 0 152 58 26 -27 51 11 153 7 45 -29 17 34 152 57 48 -27 45 29 153 8 22 -29 23 33 1.27
153 22 3 -28 19 24 19 53 44.1 28 7 0 153 17 11 -27 37 2 153 26 49 -29 2 48 153 16 31 -27 31 23 153 27 28 -29 8 44 1.27
153 40 49 -28 5 11 19 53 45.7 28 7 0 153 35 48 -27 23 7 153 45 45 -28 48 16 153 35 7 -27 17 30 153 46 25 -28 54 10 1.27
153 59 28 -27 51 12 19 53 47.3 28 7 0 153 54 18 -27 9 24 154 4 34 -28 33 58 153 53 36 -27 3 50 154 5 15 -28 39 49 1.27
154 18 0 -27 37 25 19 53 48.9 28 7 1 154 12 41 -26 55 54 154 23 15 -28 19 54 154 11 58 -26 50 22 154 23 57 -28 25 42 1.27
154 36 25 -27 23 51 19 53 50.5 29 6 1 154 30 59 -26 42 36 154 41 49 -28 6 3 154 30 14 -26 37 6 154 42 33 -28 11 49 1.27
154 54 44 -27 10 29 19 53 52.1 29 6 1 154 49 10 -26 29 29 155 0 16 -27 52 24 154 48 25 -26 24 1 155 1 1 -27 58 8 1.27
155 12 57 -26 57 19 19 53 53.8 29 6 2 155 7 15 -26 16 34 155 18 38 -27 38 58 155 6 29 -26 11 7 155 19 23 -27 44 40 1.27
155 31 4 -26 44 21 19 53 55.4 29 5 2 155 25 15 -26 3 49 155 36 52 -27 25 45 155 24 28 -25 58 24 155 37 39 -27 31 24 1.27
155 49 6 -26 31 33 19 53 57.0 30 5 2 155 43 10 -25 51 15 155 55 2 -27 12 43 155 42 21 -25 45 52 155 55 49 -27 18 20 1.27
156 7 2 -26 18 57 19 53 58.6 30 5 3 156 0 59 -25 38 52 156 13 5 -26 59 52 156 0 10 -25 33 31 156 13 54 -27 5 28 1.27
156 24 53 -26 6 31 19 54 0.2 30 5 3 156 18 43 -25 26 39 156 31 3 -26 47 12 156 17 53 -25 21 19 156 31 53 -26 52 46 1.27
156 42 39 -25 54 16 19 54 1.8 30 4 3 156 36 23 -25 14 36 156 48 56 -26 34 44 156 35 32 -25 9 18 156 49 47 -26 40 16 1.27
157 0 21 -25 42 10 19 54 3.4 31 4 3 156 53 58 -25 2 43 157 6 44 -26 22 26 156 53 7 -24 57 26 157 7 36 -26 27 56 1.28
157 17 58 -25 30 15 19 54 5.1 31 4 4 157 11 29 -24 50 59 157 24 27 -26 10 18 157 10 37 -24 45 44 157 25 20 -26 15 46 1.28
157 35 30 -25 18 29 19 54 6.7 31 3 4 157 28 56 -24 39 24 157 42 5 -25 58 21 157 28 3 -24 34 11 157 42 59 -26 3 47 1.28
157 52 58 -25 6 53 19 54 8.3 31 3 4 157 46 18 -24 27 59 157 59 40 -25 46 33 157 45 24 -24 22 47 158 0 34 -25 51 58 1.28
158 10 22 -24 55 26 19 54 9.9 31 3 5 158 3 37 -24 16 43 158 17 10 -25 34 55 158 2 42 -24 11 32 158 18 5 -25 40 18 1.28
158 27 43 -24 44 9 19 54 11.5 32 3 5 158 20 52 -24 5 35 158 34 35 -25 23 26 158 19 57 -24 0 26 158 35 31 -25 28 48 1.28
158 44 59 -24 33 0 19 54 13.1 32 2 5 158 38 3 -23 54 36 158 51 57 -25 12 7 158 37 8 -23 49 28 158 52 54 -25 17 27 1.28
159 2 12 -24 22 0 19 54 14.8 32 2 5 158 55 11 -23 43 45 159 9 16 -25 0 56 158 54 15 -23 38 39 159 10 13 -25 6 15 1.28
159 19 22 -24 11 8 19 54 16.4 32 2 6 159 12 16 -23 33 3 159 26 30 -24 49 55 159 11 19 -23 27 57 159 27 29 -24 55 13 1.28
159 36 28 -24 0 25 19 54 18.0 32 1 6 159 29 18 -23 22 29 159 43 42 -24 39 2 159 28 20 -23 17 24 159 44 41 -24 44 18 1.28
159 53 31 -23 49 50 19 54 19.6 33 1 6 159 46 16 -23 12 3 160 0 50 -24 28 18 159 45 18 -23 6 59 160 1 49 -24 33 33 1.28
160 10 31 -23 39 23 19 54 21.2 33 1 7 160 3 12 -23 1 44 160 17 55 -24 17 42 160 2 13 -22 56 42 160 18 55 -24 22 56 1.28
160 27 29 -23 29 4 19 54 22.8 33 1 7 160 20 5 -22 51 34 160 34 56 -24 7 14 160 19 5 -22 46 32 160 35 57 -24 12 27 1.28
160 44 23 -23 18 53 19 54 24.5 33 0 7 160 36 55 -22 41 30 160 51 55 -23 56 55 160 35 54 -22 36 30 160 52 57 -24 2 6 1.28
161 1 15 -23 8 50 19 54 26.1 33 0 7 160 53 42 -22 31 35 161 8 51 -23 46 43 160 52 41 -22 26 36 161 9 53 -23 51 53 1.28
161 18 4 -22 58 54 19 54 27.7 33 360 8 161 10 27 -22 21 46 161 25 45 -23 36 39 161 9 26 -22 16 48 161 26 47 -23 41 48 1.28
161 34 51 -22 49 5 19 54 29.3 34 359 8 161 27 10 -22 12 5 161 42 36 -23 26 43 161 26 8 -22 7 8 161 43 39 -23 31 51 1.28
161 51 35 -22 39 24 19 54 30.9 34 359 8 161 43 50 -22 2 31 161 59 24 -23 16 54 161 42 48 -21 57 35 162 0 28 -23 22 1 1.28
162 8 17 -22 29 50 19 54 32.5 34 359 9 162 0 29 -21 53 4 162 16 10 -23 7 13 161 59 26 -21 48 9 162 17 15 -23 12 19 1.28
162 24 57 -22 20 24 19 54 34.1 34 359 9 162 17 5 -21 43 44 162 32 54 -22 57 39 162 16 1 -21 38 50 162 33 59 -23 2 44 1.28
162 41 35 -22 11 4 19 54 35.8 34 358 9 162 33 39 -21 34 31 162 49 36 -22 48 13 162 32 35 -21 29 37 162 50 41 -22 53 16 1.28
162 58 11 -22 1 51 19 54 37.4 34 358 9 162 50 11 -21 25 24 163 6 16 -22 38 53 162 49 7 -21 20 31 163 7 22 -22 43 56 1.28
163 14 45 -21 52 45 19 54 39.0 34 358 10 163 6 42 -21 16 24 163 22 54 -22 29 40 163 5 37 -21 11 32 163 24 0 -22 34 42 1.28
163 31 17 -21 43 45 19 54 40.6 35 357 10 163 23 11 -21 7 31 163 39 30 -22 20 35 163 22 6 -21 2 39 163 40 36 -22 25 36 1.28
163 47 48 -21 34 52 19 54 42.2 35 357 10 163 39 38 -20 58 43 163 56 4 -22 11 36 163 38 32 -20 53 53 163 57 11 -22 16 36 1.28
164 4 17 -21 26 6 19 54 43.8 35 357 11 163 56 4 -20 50 3 164 12 36 -22 2 43 163 54 58 -20 45 13 164 13 44 -22 7 43 1.28
164 20 44 -21 17 26 19 54 45.5 35 357 11 164 12 28 -20 41 28 164 29 7 -21 53 58 164 11 21 -20 36 39 164 30 16 -21 58 56 1.28
164 37 10 -21 8 53 19 54 47.1 35 356 11 164 28 51 -20 33 0 164 45 37 -21 45 18 164 27 44 -20 28 12 164 46 45 -21 50 16 1.28
164 53 35 -21 0 25 19 54 48.7 35 356 11 164 45 12 -20 24 38 165 2 5 -21 36 46 164 44 5 -20 19 51 165 3 14 -21 41 43 1.29
165 9 58 -20 52 4 19 54 50.3 35 356 12 165 1 32 -20 16 22 165 18 31 -21 28 20 165 0 25 -20 11 35 165 19 41 -21 33 16 1.29
165 26 21 -20 43 50 19 54 51.9 35 355 12 165 17 51 -20 8 12 165 34 57 -21 20 0 165 16 43 -20 3 26 165 36 7 -21 24 55 1.29
165 42 42 -20 35 41 19 54 53.5 36 355 12 165 34 9 -20 0 8 165 51 21 -21 11 46 165 33 1 -19 55 22 165 52 31 -21 16 41 1.29
165 59 2 -20 27 38 19 54 55.2 36 355 13 165 50 26 -19 52 10 166 7 44 -21 3 38 165 49 17 -19 47 25 166 8 55 -21 8 32 1.29
166 15 20 -20 19 41 19 54 56.8 36 355 13 166 6 42 -19 44 18 166 24 6 -20 55 37 166 5 33 -19 39 33 166 25 17 -21 0 30 1.29
166 31 38 -20 11 50 19 54 58.4 36 354 13 166 22 57 -19 36 31 166 40 27 -20 47 41 166 21 47 -19 31 47 166 41 39 -20 52 34 1.29
166 47 56 -20 4 5 19 55 0.0 36 354 13 166 39 12 -19 28 50 166 56 47 -20 39 52 166 38 1 -19 24 7 166 57 59 -20 44 44 1.29
167 4 12 -19 56 26 19 55 1.6 36 354 14 166 55 25 -19 21 15 167 13 6 -20 32 8 166 54 14 -19 16 32 167 14 19 -20 37 0 1.29
167 20 27 -19 48 52 19 55 3.2 36 353 14 167 11 38 -19 13 45 167 29 25 -20 24 30 167 10 27 -19 9 3 167 30 38 -20 29 21 1.29
167 36 42 -19 41 24 19 55 4.8 36 353 14 167 27 50 -19 6 21 167 45 43 -20 16 58 167 26 39 -19 1 39 167 46 56 -20 21 49 1.29
167 52 57 -19 34 2 19 55 6.5 36 353 15 167 44 1 -18 59 2 168 2 0 -20 9 32 167 42 50 -18 54 21 168 3 14 -20 14 22 1.29
168 9 10 -19 26 45 19 55 8.1 36 352 15 168 0 12 -18 51 49 168 18 16 -20 2 11 167 59 0 -18 47 8 168 19 31 -20 7 1 1.29
168 25 24 -19 19 34 19 55 9.7 37 352 15 168 16 23 -18 44 41 168 34 33 -19 54 57 168 15 10 -18 40 1 168 35 47 -19 59 46 1.29
168 41 36 -19 12 28 19 55 11.3 37 352 15 168 32 33 -18 37 39 168 50 48 -19 47 47 168 31 20 -18 32 59 168 52 3 -19 52 36 1.29
168 57 49 -19 5 28 19 55 12.9 37 352 16 168 48 43 -18 30 42 169 7 3 -19 40 43 168 47 30 -18 26 2 169 8 19 -19 45 32 1.29
Uncertainty in time = +/- 1 secs
Prediction of 2021 Jul 15.0
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