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Updated: 2021 JUL 15, 17:55 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Sep 03 UT, the 81.6 km diameter asteroid (626) Notburga will occult a 11.8 mag star in the constellation Perseus for observers along a path across central South Australia and eastern Northern Territory.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.36 mag to 12.78 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 4.3 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 666-014880 by 626 Notburga on 2021 Sep 3
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
131 38 34 -37 38 18 18 56 1.6 9 6 -31 131 17 55 -36 55 25 131 59 4 -38 25 21 131 4 11 -36 28 55 132 12 30 -38 59 25 0.24
132 1 59 -35 37 25 18 56 3.8 11 6 -31 131 40 45 -35 1 30 132 23 15 -36 15 47 131 26 42 -34 38 54 132 37 19 -36 42 46 0.26
132 21 58 -33 55 39 18 56 6.0 13 6 -32 132 0 30 -33 23 57 132 43 30 -34 29 4 131 46 19 -33 3 48 132 57 48 -34 52 15 0.26
132 39 46 -32 26 1 18 56 8.1 14 5 -32 132 18 13 -31 57 12 133 1 24 -32 56 8 132 3 59 -31 38 48 133 15 47 -33 16 52 0.27
132 56 3 -31 4 57 18 56 10.3 16 5 -32 132 34 29 -30 38 17 133 17 42 -31 32 41 132 20 15 -30 21 11 133 32 6 -31 51 41 0.27
133 11 12 -29 50 23 18 56 12.5 17 5 -32 132 49 39 -29 25 23 133 32 49 -30 16 16 132 35 26 -29 9 18 133 47 11 -30 33 57 0.27
133 25 26 -28 40 55 18 56 14.7 18 5 -32 133 3 56 -28 17 16 133 47 1 -29 5 21 132 49 45 -28 2 1 134 1 21 -29 21 59 0.27
133 38 58 -27 35 38 18 56 16.8 19 5 -32 133 17 32 -27 13 6 134 0 29 -27 58 52 133 3 22 -26 58 32 134 14 47 -28 14 39 0.28
133 51 54 -26 33 50 18 56 19.0 20 5 -32 133 30 31 -26 12 14 134 13 21 -26 56 3 133 16 24 -25 58 15 134 27 36 -27 11 7 0.28
134 4 20 -25 35 0 18 56 21.2 21 5 -32 133 43 1 -25 14 12 134 25 43 -25 56 22 133 28 57 -25 0 44 134 39 55 -26 10 50 0.28
134 16 20 -24 38 44 18 56 23.3 22 4 -32 133 55 5 -24 18 38 134 37 39 -24 59 21 133 41 3 -24 5 36 134 51 48 -25 13 18 0.28
134 27 57 -23 44 43 18 56 25.5 23 4 -31 134 6 47 -23 25 14 134 49 12 -24 4 41 133 52 47 -23 12 35 135 3 18 -24 18 10 0.28
134 39 16 -22 52 41 18 56 27.7 24 4 -31 134 18 9 -22 33 45 135 0 26 -23 12 4 134 4 12 -22 21 27 135 14 30 -23 25 10 0.28
134 50 17 -22 2 26 18 56 29.8 25 4 -31 134 29 14 -21 43 59 135 11 24 -22 21 18 134 15 19 -21 31 59 135 25 24 -22 34 2 0.28
135 1 3 -21 13 47 18 56 32.0 26 4 -31 134 40 4 -20 55 46 135 22 6 -21 32 11 134 26 11 -20 44 2 135 36 4 -21 44 36 0.28
135 11 35 -20 26 34 18 56 34.2 26 4 -31 134 50 39 -20 8 57 135 32 35 -20 44 34 134 36 50 -19 57 29 135 46 30 -20 56 41 0.28
135 21 56 -19 40 41 18 56 36.3 27 4 -31 135 1 3 -19 23 25 135 42 51 -19 58 18 134 47 15 -19 12 11 135 56 44 -20 10 9 0.28
135 32 5 -18 56 0 18 56 38.5 28 3 -31 135 11 16 -18 39 4 135 52 57 -19 13 16 134 57 30 -18 28 3 136 6 48 -19 24 53 0.28
135 42 4 -18 12 26 18 56 40.7 29 3 -31 135 21 18 -17 55 49 136 2 53 -18 29 23 135 7 34 -17 44 59 136 16 42 -18 40 47 0.28
135 51 55 -17 29 54 18 56 42.9 29 3 -30 135 31 11 -17 13 33 136 12 41 -17 46 33 135 17 30 -17 2 54 136 26 27 -17 57 45 0.28
136 1 37 -16 48 19 18 56 45.0 30 3 -30 135 40 56 -16 32 14 136 22 20 -17 4 42 135 27 16 -16 21 45 136 36 4 -17 15 43 0.28
136 11 12 -16 7 38 18 56 47.2 31 3 -30 135 50 34 -15 51 47 136 31 52 -16 23 46 135 36 56 -15 41 27 136 45 35 -16 34 36 0.28
136 20 40 -15 27 46 18 56 49.4 31 3 -30 136 0 4 -15 12 9 136 41 17 -15 43 40 135 46 28 -15 1 57 136 54 58 -15 54 21 0.28
136 30 2 -14 48 41 18 56 51.5 32 3 -30 136 9 29 -14 33 16 136 50 37 -15 4 22 135 55 53 -14 23 13 137 4 16 -15 14 54 0.28
136 39 18 -14 10 20 18 56 53.7 33 3 -30 136 18 47 -13 55 7 136 59 50 -14 25 49 136 5 13 -13 45 11 137 13 28 -14 36 13 0.28
136 48 28 -13 32 40 18 56 55.9 33 3 -30 136 28 0 -13 17 38 137 8 59 -13 47 58 136 14 27 -13 7 49 137 22 35 -13 58 14 0.28
136 57 35 -12 55 40 18 56 58.0 34 2 -29 136 37 8 -12 40 47 137 18 3 -13 10 46 136 23 37 -12 31 5 137 31 37 -13 20 55 0.28
137 6 36 -12 19 15 18 57 0.2 35 2 -29 136 46 11 -12 4 33 137 27 3 -12 34 12 136 32 42 -11 54 56 137 40 35 -12 44 14 0.28
137 15 34 -11 43 26 18 57 2.4 35 2 -29 136 55 11 -11 28 53 137 35 58 -11 58 14 136 41 42 -11 19 22 137 49 30 -12 8 9 0.28
137 24 28 -11 8 10 18 57 4.5 36 2 -29 137 4 6 -10 53 45 137 44 50 -11 22 49 136 50 39 -10 44 20 137 58 21 -11 32 38 0.29
137 33 18 -10 33 26 18 57 6.7 36 2 -29 137 12 59 -10 19 9 137 53 39 -10 47 56 136 59 32 -10 9 48 138 7 8 -10 57 39 0.29
137 42 6 - 9 59 11 18 57 8.9 37 2 -29 137 21 47 - 9 45 1 138 2 25 -10 13 33 137 8 22 - 9 35 46 138 15 53 -10 23 11 0.29
137 50 50 - 9 25 25 18 57 11.1 37 2 -28 137 30 33 - 9 11 23 138 11 8 - 9 39 40 137 17 9 - 9 2 12 138 24 35 - 9 49 12 0.29
137 59 32 - 8 52 6 18 57 13.2 38 2 -28 137 39 17 - 8 38 10 138 19 49 - 9 6 14 137 25 53 - 8 29 4 138 33 15 - 9 15 42 0.29
138 8 12 - 8 19 13 18 57 15.4 39 1 -28 137 47 58 - 8 5 24 138 28 27 - 8 33 14 137 34 34 - 7 56 22 138 41 52 - 8 42 38 0.29
138 16 49 - 7 46 45 18 57 17.6 39 1 -28 137 56 36 - 7 33 2 138 37 3 - 8 0 40 137 43 14 - 7 24 4 138 50 28 - 8 9 59 0.29
138 25 25 - 7 14 41 18 57 19.7 40 1 -28 138 5 13 - 7 1 4 138 45 38 - 7 28 30 137 51 51 - 6 52 9 138 59 1 - 7 37 45 0.29
138 33 59 - 6 43 0 18 57 21.9 40 1 -27 138 13 48 - 6 29 29 138 54 11 - 6 56 43 138 0 26 - 6 20 37 139 7 34 - 7 5 54 0.29
138 42 31 - 6 11 41 18 57 24.1 41 1 -27 138 22 21 - 5 58 15 139 2 42 - 6 25 19 138 9 0 - 5 49 27 139 16 4 - 6 34 26 0.29
138 51 2 - 5 40 43 18 57 26.2 41 1 -27 138 30 53 - 5 27 22 139 11 12 - 5 54 16 138 17 32 - 5 18 37 139 24 34 - 6 3 19 0.29
138 59 32 - 5 10 6 18 57 28.4 42 1 -27 138 39 23 - 4 56 49 139 19 41 - 5 23 33 138 26 3 - 4 48 7 139 33 2 - 5 32 34 0.29
139 8 0 - 4 39 48 18 57 30.6 42 0 -27 138 47 52 - 4 26 36 139 28 9 - 4 53 11 138 34 33 - 4 17 57 139 41 30 - 5 2 8 0.29
139 16 28 - 4 9 49 18 57 32.8 43 0 -26 138 56 21 - 3 56 41 139 36 36 - 4 23 7 138 43 2 - 3 48 5 139 49 56 - 4 32 1 0.29
139 24 55 - 3 40 8 18 57 34.9 43 0 -26 139 4 48 - 3 27 4 139 45 3 - 3 53 22 138 51 30 - 3 18 31 139 58 22 - 4 2 14 0.29
139 33 22 - 3 10 45 18 57 37.1 44 360 -26 139 13 15 - 2 57 45 139 53 28 - 3 23 55 138 59 57 - 2 49 14 140 6 48 - 3 32 44 0.29
139 41 47 - 2 41 39 18 57 39.3 44 360 -26 139 21 42 - 2 28 42 140 1 54 - 2 54 45 139 8 23 - 2 20 14 140 15 13 - 3 3 31 0.29
139 50 13 - 2 12 49 18 57 41.4 45 360 -26 139 30 7 - 1 59 56 140 10 19 - 2 25 52 139 16 49 - 1 51 30 140 23 38 - 2 34 35 0.29
139 58 38 - 1 44 15 18 57 43.6 45 359 -25 139 38 33 - 1 31 26 140 18 44 - 1 57 14 139 25 15 - 1 23 2 140 32 2 - 2 5 56 0.29
140 7 3 - 1 15 57 18 57 45.8 46 359 -25 139 46 58 - 1 3 11 140 27 9 - 1 28 53 139 33 41 - 0 54 48 140 40 27 - 1 37 32 0.29
Uncertainty in time = +/- 2 secs
Prediction of 2021 Jul 15.0
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