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Updated: 2021 Jul 15, 17:51 UT
Event Rank : 98
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Aug 29 UT, the 19.6 km diameter asteroid (1766) Slipher will occult a 10.2 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a path across Tasmania.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.40 mag to 15.59 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most a brief 1.9 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 5231-01084-1 by 1766 Slipher on 2021 Aug 29
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
155 17 2 -36 25 38 17 3 9.7 31 288 -37 155 27 37 -36 30 25 155 6 31 -36 20 52 155 35 10 -36 33 48 154 59 7 -36 17 29 1.32
154 57 37 -36 36 50 17 3 12.7 32 289 -37 155 8 10 -36 41 38 154 47 8 -36 32 3 155 15 41 -36 45 2 154 39 45 -36 28 39 1.32
154 38 18 -36 48 3 17 3 15.7 32 289 -37 154 48 49 -36 52 51 154 27 51 -36 43 14 154 56 19 -36 56 16 154 20 30 -36 39 50 1.32
154 19 5 -36 59 15 17 3 18.7 32 289 -37 154 29 34 -37 4 5 154 8 40 -36 54 26 154 37 2 -37 7 30 154 1 20 -36 51 1 1.32
153 59 58 -37 10 28 17 3 21.6 32 290 -37 154 10 25 -37 15 19 153 49 35 -37 5 38 154 17 52 -37 18 44 153 42 16 -37 2 12 1.32
152 7 8 -38 17 54 17 3 39.6 33 292 -38 152 17 26 -38 22 50 151 56 55 -38 12 58 152 24 46 -38 26 20 151 49 43 -38 9 28 1.32
151 48 37 -38 29 10 17 3 42.5 33 292 -38 151 58 53 -38 34 7 151 38 26 -38 24 13 152 6 12 -38 37 38 151 31 15 -38 20 42 1.32
151 30 11 -38 40 26 17 3 45.5 33 293 -38 151 40 26 -38 45 25 151 20 1 -38 35 28 151 47 44 -38 48 56 151 12 50 -38 31 57 1.32
151 11 49 -38 51 43 17 3 48.5 34 293 -39 151 22 2 -38 56 43 151 1 40 -38 46 44 151 29 20 -39 0 14 150 54 31 -38 43 12 1.32
150 53 31 -39 3 1 17 3 51.5 34 293 -39 151 3 43 -39 8 1 150 43 23 -38 58 1 151 11 0 -39 11 34 150 36 15 -38 54 28 1.32
150 35 18 -39 14 19 17 3 54.5 34 294 -39 150 45 29 -39 19 20 150 25 11 -39 9 18 150 52 44 -39 22 54 150 18 3 -39 5 45 1.32
150 17 8 -39 25 38 17 3 57.5 34 294 -39 150 27 18 -39 30 40 150 7 2 -39 20 36 150 34 32 -39 34 14 149 59 56 -39 17 2 1.32
149 59 2 -39 36 57 17 4 0.5 34 294 -39 150 9 11 -39 42 1 149 48 58 -39 31 54 150 16 25 -39 45 35 149 41 52 -39 28 20 1.32
149 41 0 -39 48 18 17 4 3.5 34 295 -39 149 51 8 -39 53 22 149 30 56 -39 43 14 149 58 21 -39 56 57 149 23 51 -39 39 38 1.32
149 23 2 -39 59 39 17 4 6.4 34 295 -39 149 33 8 -40 4 44 149 12 59 -39 54 34 149 40 21 -40 8 20 149 5 54 -39 50 57 1.32
149 5 6 -40 11 0 17 4 9.4 34 295 -40 149 15 12 -40 16 6 148 55 5 -40 5 54 149 22 24 -40 19 43 148 48 1 -40 2 17 1.32
148 47 15 -40 22 23 17 4 12.4 35 296 -40 148 57 20 -40 27 30 148 37 14 -40 17 16 149 4 31 -40 31 7 148 30 11 -40 13 38 1.32
148 29 26 -40 33 46 17 4 15.4 35 296 -40 148 39 30 -40 38 54 148 19 26 -40 28 38 148 46 41 -40 42 32 148 12 23 -40 24 59 1.32
148 11 41 -40 45 10 17 4 18.4 35 296 -40 148 21 44 -40 50 19 148 1 41 -40 40 1 148 28 54 -40 53 58 147 54 39 -40 36 22 1.32
147 53 58 -40 56 35 17 4 21.4 35 297 -40 148 4 1 -41 1 45 147 44 0 -40 51 24 148 11 10 -41 5 25 147 36 58 -40 47 45 1.32
147 36 19 -41 8 0 17 4 24.4 35 297 -40 147 46 20 -41 13 11 147 26 21 -41 2 49 147 53 29 -41 16 52 147 19 20 -40 59 9 1.33
147 18 42 -41 19 27 17 4 27.3 35 298 -40 147 28 43 -41 24 39 147 8 45 -41 14 14 147 35 51 -41 28 20 147 1 44 -41 10 33 1.33
147 1 7 -41 30 54 17 4 30.3 35 298 -40 147 11 8 -41 36 7 146 51 11 -41 25 41 147 18 16 -41 39 49 146 44 11 -41 21 59 1.33
146 43 36 -41 42 22 17 4 33.3 35 298 -40 146 53 36 -41 47 37 146 33 40 -41 37 8 147 0 43 -41 51 20 146 26 40 -41 33 26 1.33
146 26 6 -41 53 52 17 4 36.3 35 299 -40 146 36 6 -41 59 7 146 16 11 -41 48 36 146 43 13 -42 2 51 146 9 12 -41 44 53 1.33
146 8 40 -42 5 22 17 4 39.3 35 299 -41 146 18 39 -42 10 38 145 58 45 -42 0 6 146 25 45 -42 14 23 145 51 45 -41 56 21 1.33
145 51 15 -42 16 53 17 4 42.3 35 299 -41 146 1 13 -42 22 11 145 41 20 -42 11 36 146 8 20 -42 25 56 145 34 21 -42 7 51 1.33
145 33 52 -42 28 25 17 4 45.3 36 300 -41 145 43 50 -42 33 44 145 23 58 -42 23 7 145 50 56 -42 37 30 145 17 0 -42 19 21 1.33
145 16 32 -42 39 59 17 4 48.3 36 300 -41 145 26 29 -42 45 18 145 6 38 -42 34 39 145 33 35 -42 49 5 144 59 40 -42 30 53 1.33
144 59 13 -42 51 33 17 4 51.2 36 301 -41 145 9 10 -42 56 54 144 49 19 -42 46 12 145 16 16 -43 0 41 144 42 21 -42 42 25 1.33
144 41 56 -43 3 9 17 4 54.2 36 301 -41 144 51 53 -43 8 30 144 32 3 -42 57 47 144 58 58 -43 12 19 144 25 5 -42 53 59 1.33
144 24 41 -43 14 45 17 4 57.2 36 301 -41 144 34 37 -43 20 8 144 14 48 -43 9 22 144 41 43 -43 23 57 144 7 50 -43 5 34 1.33
144 7 27 -43 26 23 17 5 0.2 36 302 -41 144 17 24 -43 31 47 143 57 35 -43 20 59 144 24 29 -43 35 37 143 50 37 -43 17 9 1.33
143 50 15 -43 38 2 17 5 3.2 36 302 -41 144 0 11 -43 43 27 143 40 23 -43 32 37 144 7 16 -43 47 17 143 33 25 -43 28 46 1.33
143 33 4 -43 49 42 17 5 6.2 36 303 -41 143 43 1 -43 55 8 143 23 12 -43 44 15 143 50 6 -43 58 59 143 16 15 -43 40 24 1.33
143 15 55 -44 1 23 17 5 9.2 36 303 -41 143 25 51 -44 6 50 143 6 3 -43 55 56 143 32 56 -44 10 43 142 59 6 -43 52 4 1.33
142 58 47 -44 13 5 17 5 12.1 36 303 -41 143 8 43 -44 18 34 142 48 55 -44 7 37 143 15 48 -44 22 27 142 41 58 -44 3 44 1.33
142 41 40 -44 24 49 17 5 15.1 36 304 -41 142 51 36 -44 30 19 142 31 48 -44 19 19 142 58 41 -44 34 13 142 24 51 -44 15 26 1.33
142 24 34 -44 36 34 17 5 18.1 36 304 -41 142 34 30 -44 42 5 142 14 43 -44 31 3 142 41 35 -44 46 0 142 7 46 -44 27 9 1.33
142 7 29 -44 48 20 17 5 21.1 36 304 -41 142 17 25 -44 53 53 141 57 38 -44 42 48 142 24 30 -44 57 48 141 50 41 -44 38 53 1.33
141 50 25 -45 0 8 17 5 24.1 36 305 -41 142 0 21 -45 5 41 141 40 34 -44 54 35 142 7 26 -45 9 38 141 33 37 -44 50 39 1.33
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