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Updated: 2021 Jul 15, 17:33 UT
Event Rank : 88
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Aug 13 UT, the 184 km diameter asteroid (624) Hektor will occult a 10.5 mag star in the constellation Perseus for observers along a path across western Victoria and western New South Wales, during morning twilight.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.74 mag to 15.24 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 11.2 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 2347-00478-1 by 624 Hektor #1 on 2021 Aug 13
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
140 57 58 -48 21 12 20 31 57.2 8 356 -12 139 45 25 -44 58 21 ... .. .. .. .. .. 139 18 59 -43 51 22 ... .. .. .. .. .. 0.72
141 5 56 -46 40 24 20 31 59.4 9 356 -12 139 57 7 -43 44 26 142 37 26 -51 17 57 139 31 24 -42 43 26 ... .. .. .. .. .. 0.76
141 15 5 -45 15 18 20 32 1.6 11 356 -11 140 8 52 -42 37 20 142 36 5 -48 52 42 139 43 45 -41 40 52 143 21 11 -51 11 24 0.79
141 24 50 -44 0 14 20 32 3.8 12 355 -11 140 20 38 -41 35 26 142 40 13 -47 6 20 139 56 0 -40 42 33 143 18 0 -48 48 21 0.80
141 34 57 -42 52 20 20 32 5.9 13 355 -11 140 32 22 -40 37 41 142 46 35 -45 38 8 140 8 10 -39 47 45 143 20 52 -47 2 59 0.81
141 45 18 -41 49 51 20 32 8.1 14 355 -11 140 44 4 -39 43 21 142 54 9 -44 21 6 140 20 14 -38 55 53 143 26 14 -45 35 26 0.81
141 55 48 -40 51 40 20 32 10.3 15 355 -10 140 55 43 -38 51 53 143 2 29 -43 11 50 140 32 13 -38 6 31 143 33 0 -44 18 53 0.82
142 6 24 -39 57 1 20 32 12.5 16 355 -10 141 7 20 -38 2 53 143 11 18 -42 8 21 140 44 7 -37 19 19 143 40 38 -43 9 59 0.82
142 17 3 -39 5 18 20 32 14.7 17 355 -10 141 18 53 -37 16 1 143 20 28 -41 9 25 140 55 56 -36 34 3 143 48 51 -42 6 50 0.82
142 27 45 -38 16 6 20 32 16.9 18 354 -9 141 30 23 -36 31 2 143 29 53 -40 14 10 141 7 40 -35 50 28 143 57 30 -41 8 10 0.83
142 38 29 -37 29 5 20 32 19.1 18 354 -9 141 41 49 -35 47 43 143 39 30 -39 21 59 141 19 21 -35 8 24 144 6 27 -40 13 9 0.83
142 49 14 -36 43 59 20 32 21.3 19 354 -9 141 53 13 -35 5 54 143 49 15 -38 32 24 141 30 57 -34 27 42 144 15 38 -39 21 11 0.83
142 59 59 -36 0 35 20 32 23.5 20 354 -8 142 4 35 -34 25 26 143 59 7 -37 45 4 141 42 30 -33 48 15 144 25 0 -38 31 48 0.83
143 10 44 -35 18 41 20 32 25.7 20 354 -8 142 15 53 -33 46 12 144 9 4 -36 59 43 141 53 59 -33 9 56 144 34 30 -37 44 39 0.83
143 21 29 -34 38 10 20 32 27.9 21 353 -8 142 27 9 -33 8 5 144 19 5 -36 16 6 142 5 25 -32 32 40 144 44 8 -36 59 28 0.83
143 32 14 -33 58 54 20 32 30.1 22 353 -8 142 38 22 -32 30 59 144 29 10 -35 34 2 142 16 48 -31 56 21 144 53 52 -36 16 0 0.83
143 42 58 -33 20 46 20 32 32.3 22 353 -7 142 49 34 -31 54 51 144 39 18 -34 53 22 142 28 8 -31 20 56 145 3 40 -35 34 5 0.83
143 53 42 -32 43 40 20 32 34.5 23 353 -7 143 0 43 -31 19 36 144 49 28 -34 13 59 142 39 26 -30 46 20 145 13 32 -34 53 34 0.84
144 4 26 -32 7 32 20 32 36.7 24 353 -7 143 11 50 -30 45 10 144 59 39 -33 35 45 142 50 41 -30 12 31 145 23 28 -34 14 18 0.84
144 15 9 -31 32 17 20 32 38.9 24 352 -6 143 22 55 -30 11 30 145 9 53 -32 58 34 143 1 54 -29 39 26 145 33 26 -33 36 12 0.84
144 25 51 -30 57 52 20 32 41.1 25 352 -6 143 33 58 -29 38 33 145 20 8 -32 22 22 143 13 5 -29 7 1 145 43 27 -32 59 8 0.84
144 36 33 -30 24 14 20 32 43.3 25 352 -6 143 45 0 -29 6 17 145 30 24 -31 47 4 143 24 13 -28 35 14 145 53 30 -32 23 3 0.84
144 47 15 -29 51 18 20 32 45.5 26 352 -6 143 56 1 -28 34 38 145 40 41 -31 12 37 143 35 20 -28 4 4 146 3 35 -31 47 52 0.84
144 57 56 -29 19 4 20 32 47.7 26 352 -5 144 7 0 -28 3 35 145 50 59 -30 38 57 143 46 26 -27 33 28 146 13 41 -31 13 31 0.84
145 8 37 -28 47 27 20 32 49.9 27 351 -5 144 17 57 -27 33 7 146 1 18 -30 6 0 143 57 29 -27 3 24 146 23 49 -30 39 57 0.84
145 19 17 -28 16 27 20 32 52.1 27 351 -5 144 28 54 -27 3 10 146 11 38 -29 33 45 144 8 32 -26 33 51 146 33 59 -30 7 7 0.84
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