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Updated: 2021 Jul 15, 17:27 UT
Event Rank : 47
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Aug 07 UT, the 52 km diameter asteroid (4832) Palinurus will occult a 12.3 mag star in the constellation Ophiuchus for observers along a significantly uncertain path across eastern West Australia, passing near Wyndham.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.37 mag to 17.70 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 5.1 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 434-064790 by 4832 Palinurus on 2021 Aug 7
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
126 58 2 - 9 56 33 10 31 32.2 82 39 -16 127 12 18 - 9 55 14 126 43 46 - 9 57 52 127 51 35 - 9 51 34 126 4 23 -10 1 28 0.10
126 58 54 -10 19 8 10 31 36.2 81 37 -16 127 13 10 -10 17 49 126 44 37 -10 20 27 127 52 30 -10 14 9 126 5 11 -10 24 4 0.10
126 59 45 -10 41 44 10 31 40.2 81 36 -16 127 14 3 -10 40 25 126 45 27 -10 43 3 127 53 25 -10 36 45 126 5 58 -10 46 40 0.10
127 0 35 -11 4 21 10 31 44.2 81 34 -16 127 14 54 -11 3 2 126 46 16 -11 5 40 127 54 20 -10 59 22 126 6 45 -11 9 18 0.10
127 1 25 -11 27 0 10 31 48.2 80 33 -16 127 15 45 -11 25 40 126 47 5 -11 28 19 127 55 14 -11 22 0 126 7 31 -11 31 57 0.10
127 2 15 -11 49 39 10 31 52.3 80 31 -16 127 16 36 -11 48 20 126 47 53 -11 50 59 127 56 8 -11 44 39 126 8 16 -11 54 37 0.10
127 3 4 -12 12 20 10 31 56.3 80 30 -16 127 17 26 -12 11 1 126 48 41 -12 13 40 127 57 1 -12 7 20 126 9 0 -12 17 18 0.10
127 3 52 -12 35 3 10 32 0.3 80 29 -16 127 18 16 -12 33 43 126 49 28 -12 36 22 127 57 54 -12 30 2 126 9 44 -12 40 1 0.09
127 4 40 -12 57 47 10 32 4.3 79 28 -16 127 19 5 -12 56 27 126 50 15 -12 59 6 127 58 47 -12 52 45 126 10 27 -13 2 45 0.09
127 5 28 -13 20 32 10 32 8.4 79 27 -17 127 19 54 -13 19 12 126 51 1 -13 21 52 127 59 39 -13 15 30 126 11 9 -13 25 31 0.09
127 6 15 -13 43 19 10 32 12.4 79 26 -17 127 20 42 -13 41 58 126 51 47 -13 44 39 128 0 31 -13 38 16 126 11 51 -13 48 18 0.09
127 7 1 -14 6 7 10 32 16.4 78 25 -17 127 21 30 -14 4 47 126 52 32 -14 7 27 128 1 23 -14 1 4 126 12 32 -14 11 7 0.09
127 7 47 -14 28 57 10 32 20.4 78 24 -17 127 22 18 -14 27 37 126 53 16 -14 30 17 128 2 15 -14 23 54 126 13 13 -14 33 57 0.09
127 8 33 -14 51 49 10 32 24.4 78 23 -17 127 23 5 -14 50 28 126 54 1 -14 53 9 128 3 6 -14 46 45 126 13 53 -14 56 50 0.09
127 9 18 -15 14 43 10 32 28.5 77 22 -17 127 23 51 -15 13 22 126 54 44 -15 16 3 128 3 57 -15 9 38 126 14 32 -15 19 44 0.09
127 10 3 -15 37 38 10 32 32.5 77 22 -17 127 24 38 -15 36 17 126 55 27 -15 38 59 128 4 48 -15 32 33 126 15 11 -15 42 40 0.09
127 10 47 -16 0 36 10 32 36.5 77 21 -17 127 25 24 -15 59 15 126 56 10 -16 1 56 128 5 38 -15 55 30 126 15 49 -16 5 38 0.09
127 11 31 -16 23 35 10 32 40.5 76 20 -17 127 26 9 -16 22 14 126 56 52 -16 24 56 128 6 28 -16 18 29 126 16 26 -16 28 38 0.09
127 12 14 -16 46 37 10 32 44.5 76 20 -18 127 26 55 -16 45 15 126 57 34 -16 47 58 128 7 18 -16 41 30 126 17 3 -16 51 40 0.09
127 12 58 -17 9 40 10 32 48.6 75 19 -18 127 27 39 -17 8 19 126 58 15 -17 11 2 128 8 8 -17 4 33 126 17 40 -17 14 45 0.09
127 13 40 -17 32 46 10 32 52.6 75 18 -18 127 28 24 -17 31 25 126 58 56 -17 34 8 128 8 58 -17 27 39 126 18 15 -17 37 51 0.09
127 14 23 -17 55 55 10 32 56.6 75 18 -18 127 29 8 -17 54 33 126 59 36 -17 57 16 128 9 47 -17 50 46 126 18 51 -18 1 0 0.09
127 15 5 -18 19 5 10 33 0.6 74 17 -18 127 29 52 -18 17 43 127 0 16 -18 20 27 128 10 36 -18 13 56 126 19 25 -18 24 11 0.09
127 15 46 -18 42 18 10 33 4.6 74 17 -18 127 30 36 -18 40 56 127 0 56 -18 43 40 128 11 25 -18 37 9 126 19 59 -18 47 25 0.09
127 16 27 -19 5 34 10 33 8.7 74 16 -18 127 31 19 -19 4 12 127 1 35 -19 6 56 128 12 14 -19 0 24 126 20 33 -19 10 41 0.09
127 17 8 -19 28 52 10 33 12.7 73 16 -18 127 32 2 -19 27 30 127 2 14 -19 30 15 128 13 3 -19 23 41 126 21 6 -19 34 0 0.09
127 17 49 -19 52 13 10 33 16.7 73 15 -18 127 32 45 -19 50 51 127 2 52 -19 53 36 128 13 52 -19 47 1 126 21 38 -19 57 22 0.09
127 18 29 -20 15 37 10 33 20.7 73 15 -19 127 33 27 -20 14 14 127 3 30 -20 17 0 128 14 40 -20 10 24 126 22 10 -20 20 46 0.09
127 19 9 -20 39 3 10 33 24.8 72 15 -19 127 34 9 -20 37 40 127 4 8 -20 40 26 128 15 29 -20 33 50 126 22 41 -20 44 14 0.09
127 19 48 -21 2 33 10 33 28.8 72 14 -19 127 34 51 -21 1 10 127 4 45 -21 3 56 128 16 17 -20 57 19 126 23 12 -21 7 44 0.09
127 20 28 -21 26 5 10 33 32.8 71 14 -19 127 35 33 -21 24 42 127 5 22 -21 27 29 128 17 5 -21 20 51 126 23 42 -21 31 17 0.09
127 21 7 -21 49 41 10 33 36.8 71 14 -19 127 36 14 -21 48 17 127 5 59 -21 51 4 128 17 53 -21 44 25 126 24 12 -21 54 53 0.09
127 21 45 -22 13 20 10 33 40.8 71 13 -19 127 36 56 -22 11 56 127 6 35 -22 14 43 128 18 41 -22 8 3 126 24 41 -22 18 33 0.09
127 22 24 -22 37 2 10 33 44.9 70 13 -19 127 37 36 -22 35 38 127 7 11 -22 38 26 128 19 29 -22 31 44 126 25 10 -22 42 16 0.09
127 23 2 -23 0 47 10 33 48.9 70 13 -19 127 38 17 -22 59 23 127 7 46 -23 2 11 128 20 17 -22 55 29 126 25 38 -23 6 2 0.09
127 23 40 -23 24 36 10 33 52.9 70 12 -19 127 38 58 -23 23 11 127 8 21 -23 26 0 128 21 5 -23 19 17 126 26 6 -23 29 52 0.09
127 24 18 -23 48 28 10 33 56.9 69 12 -19 127 39 38 -23 47 3 127 8 56 -23 49 53 128 21 53 -23 43 8 126 26 33 -23 53 45 0.09
127 24 55 -24 12 24 10 34 0.9 69 12 -19 127 40 18 -24 10 59 127 9 31 -24 13 49 128 22 41 -24 7 4 126 26 59 -24 17 42 0.09
127 25 32 -24 36 24 10 34 5.0 68 11 -20 127 40 58 -24 34 59 127 10 5 -24 37 49 128 23 30 -24 31 2 126 27 25 -24 41 43 0.09
127 26 9 -25 0 28 10 34 9.0 68 11 -20 127 41 38 -24 59 2 127 10 39 -25 1 53 128 24 18 -24 55 5 126 27 51 -25 5 47 0.09
127 26 46 -25 24 35 10 34 13.0 68 11 -20 127 42 18 -25 23 9 127 11 12 -25 26 1 128 25 6 -25 19 12 126 28 16 -25 29 56 0.09
127 27 22 -25 48 47 10 34 17.0 67 11 -20 127 42 58 -25 47 21 127 11 46 -25 50 13 128 25 54 -25 43 22 126 28 41 -25 54 8 0.09
127 27 58 -26 13 3 10 34 21.0 67 10 -20 127 43 37 -26 11 36 127 12 19 -26 14 29 128 26 42 -26 7 37 126 29 5 -26 18 25 0.09
127 28 34 -26 37 23 10 34 25.1 66 10 -20 127 44 16 -26 35 56 127 12 51 -26 38 49 128 27 30 -26 31 56 126 29 28 -26 42 46 0.09
127 29 10 -27 1 47 10 34 29.1 66 10 -20 127 44 56 -27 0 20 127 13 24 -27 3 14 128 28 19 -26 56 19 126 29 51 -27 7 12 0.09
127 29 46 -27 26 16 10 34 33.1 66 10 -20 127 45 35 -27 24 49 127 13 56 -27 27 43 128 29 7 -27 20 47 126 30 14 -27 31 42 0.09
127 30 21 -27 50 49 10 34 37.1 65 9 -20 127 46 14 -27 49 22 127 14 28 -27 52 17 128 29 56 -27 45 19 126 30 36 -27 56 16 0.09
127 30 56 -28 15 27 10 34 41.2 65 9 -20 127 46 53 -28 14 0 127 15 0 -28 16 55 128 30 45 -28 9 56 126 30 58 -28 20 56 0.09
127 31 32 -28 40 11 10 34 45.2 64 9 -20 127 47 31 -28 38 42 127 15 31 -28 41 38 128 31 34 -28 34 38 126 31 19 -28 45 40 0.08
127 32 7 -29 4 59 10 34 49.2 64 9 -20 127 48 10 -29 3 30 127 16 2 -29 6 27 128 32 23 -28 59 25 126 31 39 -29 10 29 0.08
127 32 41 -29 29 52 10 34 53.2 64 9 -21 127 48 49 -29 28 23 127 16 33 -29 31 20 128 33 13 -29 24 17 126 31 59 -29 35 23 0.08
127 33 16 -29 54 50 10 34 57.2 63 8 -21 127 49 28 -29 53 21 127 17 4 -29 56 19 128 34 2 -29 49 14 126 32 19 -30 0 23 0.08
127 33 51 -30 19 54 10 35 1.3 63 8 -21 127 50 6 -30 18 24 127 17 34 -30 21 23 128 34 52 -30 14 16 126 32 38 -30 25 28 0.08
127 34 25 -30 45 3 10 35 5.3 62 8 -21 127 50 45 -30 43 33 127 18 4 -30 46 33 128 35 42 -30 39 24 126 32 56 -30 50 38 0.08
127 34 59 -31 10 18 10 35 9.3 62 8 -21 127 51 23 -31 8 47 127 18 34 -31 11 48 128 36 32 -31 4 37 126 33 14 -31 15 55 0.08
127 35 33 -31 35 38 10 35 13.3 62 8 -21 127 52 2 -31 34 8 127 19 4 -31 37 9 128 37 23 -31 29 56 126 33 32 -31 41 17 0.08
127 36 7 -32 1 5 10 35 17.3 61 8 -21 127 52 41 -31 59 34 127 19 33 -32 2 36 128 38 14 -31 55 22 126 33 49 -32 6 45 0.08
127 36 41 -32 26 38 10 35 21.4 61 7 -21 127 53 19 -32 25 6 127 20 3 -32 28 9 128 39 5 -32 20 53 126 34 5 -32 32 19 0.08
127 37 15 -32 52 17 10 35 25.4 60 7 -21 127 53 58 -32 50 45 127 20 32 -32 53 48 128 39 57 -32 46 30 126 34 21 -32 57 59 0.08
127 37 49 -33 18 2 10 35 29.4 60 7 -21 127 54 36 -33 16 30 127 21 1 -33 19 34 128 40 49 -33 12 14 126 34 36 -33 23 46 0.08
127 38 23 -33 43 54 10 35 33.4 60 7 -21 127 55 15 -33 42 21 127 21 29 -33 45 26 128 41 42 -33 38 4 126 34 51 -33 49 40 0.08
127 38 56 -34 9 53 10 35 37.4 59 7 -21 127 55 54 -34 8 19 127 21 58 -34 11 25 128 42 34 -34 4 1 126 35 5 -34 15 40 0.08
127 39 30 -34 35 58 10 35 41.5 59 7 -21 127 56 33 -34 34 25 127 22 26 -34 37 32 128 43 28 -34 30 5 126 35 19 -34 41 47 0.08
127 40 4 -35 2 11 10 35 45.5 58 7 -21 127 57 12 -35 0 37 127 22 54 -35 3 45 128 44 22 -34 56 16 126 35 32 -35 8 2 0.08
127 40 37 -35 28 31 10 35 49.5 58 7 -22 127 57 51 -35 26 57 127 23 22 -35 30 5 128 45 16 -35 22 35 126 35 44 -35 34 24 0.08
127 41 11 -35 54 59 10 35 53.5 57 6 -22 127 58 30 -35 53 24 127 23 50 -35 56 33 128 46 11 -35 49 1 126 35 56 -36 0 53 0.08
127 41 44 -36 21 34 10 35 57.6 57 6 -22 127 59 9 -36 19 59 127 24 18 -36 23 9 128 47 6 -36 15 34 126 36 8 -36 27 30 0.08
127 42 17 -36 48 17 10 36 1.6 56 6 -22 127 59 49 -36 46 41 127 24 45 -36 49 53 128 48 2 -36 42 15 126 36 18 -36 54 16 0.08
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