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Updated: 2021 Jul 15, 17:27 UT
Event Rank : 95
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Aug 07 UT, the 49 km diameter asteroid (1263) Varsavia will occult a 10.8 mag star in the constellation Hercules for observers along a path across eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales, passing over Mackay, Tamworth, Newcastle and Sydney.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.05 mag to 15.80 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.3 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 0970-00474-1 by 1263 Varsavia on 2021 Aug 7
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
148 41 42 -18 8 12 10 47 7.6 57 332 -41 148 56 5 -18 7 57 148 27 20 -18 8 28 149 8 30 -18 7 44 148 14 58 -18 8 42 -0.24
148 45 6 -18 34 0 10 47 10.3 56 332 -42 148 59 31 -18 33 45 148 30 41 -18 34 16 149 11 58 -18 33 33 148 18 17 -18 34 30 -0.24
148 48 34 -18 59 56 10 47 13.1 56 332 -42 149 3 3 -18 59 41 148 34 7 -19 0 11 149 15 31 -18 59 29 148 21 41 -19 0 25 -0.24
148 52 9 -19 25 58 10 47 15.8 56 332 -42 149 6 39 -19 25 43 148 37 39 -19 26 13 149 19 10 -19 25 31 148 25 11 -19 26 27 -0.24
148 55 48 -19 52 7 10 47 18.6 55 332 -42 149 10 22 -19 51 53 148 41 16 -19 52 23 149 22 55 -19 51 41 148 28 45 -19 52 36 -0.24
148 59 34 -20 18 24 10 47 21.3 55 333 -42 149 14 10 -20 18 10 148 44 59 -20 18 39 149 26 46 -20 17 58 148 32 26 -20 18 53 -0.24
149 3 25 -20 44 49 10 47 24.1 54 333 -42 149 18 4 -20 44 35 148 48 47 -20 45 4 149 30 42 -20 44 23 148 36 12 -20 45 17 -0.24
149 7 22 -21 11 21 10 47 26.8 54 333 -42 149 22 4 -21 11 7 148 52 41 -21 11 36 149 34 45 -21 10 56 148 40 3 -21 11 49 -0.24
149 11 25 -21 38 2 10 47 29.6 53 333 -42 149 26 10 -21 37 48 148 56 42 -21 38 16 149 38 54 -21 37 37 148 44 1 -21 38 29 -0.24
149 15 35 -22 4 51 10 47 32.3 53 333 -42 149 30 23 -22 4 37 149 0 48 -22 5 5 149 43 9 -22 4 26 148 48 5 -22 5 18 -0.24
149 19 52 -22 31 48 10 47 35.1 53 333 -42 149 34 43 -22 31 35 149 5 2 -22 32 2 149 47 31 -22 31 24 148 52 16 -22 32 15 -0.24
149 24 15 -22 58 54 10 47 37.8 52 333 -43 149 39 9 -22 58 41 149 9 21 -22 59 8 149 52 1 -22 58 31 148 56 33 -22 59 21 -0.24
149 28 45 -23 26 9 10 47 40.6 52 334 -43 149 43 43 -23 25 57 149 13 48 -23 26 23 149 56 37 -23 25 46 149 0 57 -23 26 35 -0.24
149 33 22 -23 53 34 10 47 43.3 51 334 -43 149 48 24 -23 53 21 149 18 22 -23 53 47 150 1 21 -23 53 11 149 5 27 -23 53 59 -0.24
149 38 7 -24 21 8 10 47 46.1 51 334 -43 149 53 12 -24 20 55 149 23 4 -24 21 21 150 6 13 -24 20 46 149 10 6 -24 21 33 -0.24
149 43 0 -24 48 51 10 47 48.8 50 334 -43 149 58 9 -24 48 40 149 27 53 -24 49 4 150 11 13 -24 48 30 149 14 52 -24 49 16 -0.24
149 48 1 -25 16 45 10 47 51.6 50 334 -43 150 3 14 -25 16 34 149 32 50 -25 16 58 150 16 21 -25 16 25 149 19 45 -25 17 9 -0.24
149 53 10 -25 44 50 10 47 54.3 49 334 -43 150 8 27 -25 44 38 149 37 55 -25 45 2 150 21 38 -25 44 29 149 24 47 -25 45 13 -0.24
149 58 28 -26 13 5 10 47 57.1 49 334 -43 150 13 49 -26 12 54 149 43 9 -26 13 17 150 27 4 -26 12 45 149 29 57 -26 13 28 -0.24
150 3 55 -26 41 31 10 47 59.8 48 334 -43 150 19 21 -26 41 20 149 48 32 -26 41 43 150 32 39 -26 41 12 149 35 17 -26 41 53 -0.24
150 9 32 -27 10 9 10 48 2.6 48 334 -43 150 25 1 -27 9 58 149 54 4 -27 10 20 150 38 24 -27 9 50 149 40 45 -27 10 31 -0.24
150 15 18 -27 38 58 10 48 5.3 48 335 -43 150 30 52 -27 38 48 149 59 45 -27 39 9 150 44 18 -27 38 40 149 46 22 -27 39 19 -0.24
150 21 14 -28 8 0 10 48 8.1 47 335 -43 150 36 53 -28 7 50 150 5 37 -28 8 10 150 50 24 -28 7 43 149 52 10 -28 8 20 -0.24
150 27 21 -28 37 14 10 48 10.8 47 335 -43 150 43 5 -28 37 5 150 11 39 -28 37 24 150 56 40 -28 36 58 149 58 8 -28 37 34 -0.24
150 33 39 -29 6 41 10 48 13.6 46 335 -43 150 49 28 -29 6 32 150 17 52 -29 6 51 151 3 7 -29 6 25 150 4 16 -29 7 0 -0.24
150 40 9 -29 36 22 10 48 16.3 46 335 -44 150 56 3 -29 36 13 150 24 16 -29 36 31 151 9 47 -29 36 7 150 10 36 -29 36 40 -0.24
150 46 50 -30 6 16 10 48 19.1 45 335 -44 151 2 50 -30 6 8 150 30 52 -30 6 25 151 16 38 -30 6 2 150 17 7 -30 6 34 -0.24
150 53 44 -30 36 25 10 48 21.8 45 335 -44 151 9 49 -30 36 17 150 37 40 -30 36 33 151 23 43 -30 36 12 150 23 51 -30 36 42 -0.24
151 0 51 -31 6 48 10 48 24.6 44 335 -44 151 17 2 -31 6 41 150 44 42 -31 6 57 151 31 1 -31 6 36 150 30 47 -31 7 4 -0.24
151 8 12 -31 37 27 10 48 27.3 44 335 -44 151 24 29 -31 37 21 150 51 56 -31 37 35 151 38 33 -31 37 16 150 37 57 -31 37 43 -0.24
151 15 47 -32 8 22 10 48 30.1 43 335 -44 151 32 11 -32 8 17 150 59 25 -32 8 30 151 46 20 -32 8 12 150 45 20 -32 8 37 -0.24
151 23 38 -32 39 34 10 48 32.8 43 335 -44 151 40 8 -32 39 29 151 7 9 -32 39 41 151 54 23 -32 39 25 150 52 59 -32 39 47 -0.24
151 31 44 -33 11 3 10 48 35.6 42 335 -44 151 48 21 -33 10 58 151 15 9 -33 11 9 152 2 42 -33 10 55 151 0 52 -33 11 15 -0.24
151 40 7 -33 42 49 10 48 38.3 42 335 -44 151 56 51 -33 42 45 151 23 24 -33 42 55 152 11 18 -33 42 42 151 9 2 -33 43 0 -0.24
151 48 47 -34 14 54 10 48 41.1 41 335 -44 152 5 39 -34 14 51 151 31 58 -34 14 59 152 20 12 -34 14 49 151 17 29 -34 15 4 -0.24
151 57 46 -34 47 19 10 48 43.8 40 335 -44 152 14 45 -34 47 16 151 40 49 -34 47 23 152 29 26 -34 47 14 151 26 14 -34 47 27 -0.24
152 7 5 -35 20 3 10 48 46.6 40 335 -44 152 24 12 -35 20 1 151 49 59 -35 20 6 152 38 59 -35 20 0 151 35 17 -35 20 10 -0.24
152 16 44 -35 53 8 10 48 49.3 39 335 -44 152 33 59 -35 53 7 151 59 30 -35 53 11 152 48 54 -35 53 7 151 44 41 -35 53 14 -0.24
152 26 45 -36 26 35 10 48 52.1 39 335 -44 152 44 9 -36 26 35 152 9 23 -36 26 37 152 59 11 -36 26 36 151 54 26 -36 26 40 -0.24
152 37 9 -37 0 25 10 48 54.8 38 335 -44 152 54 42 -37 0 26 152 19 38 -37 0 26 153 9 52 -37 0 27 152 4 33 -37 0 28 -0.24
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