|
|
Updated: 2021 Jul 15, 17:26 UT
Event Rank : 50
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Aug 05 UT, the 18.0 km diameter asteroid (955) Alstede will occult a 10.1 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a significantly uncertain path across western Victoria, western New South Wales and Queensland, passing over Port Campbell, Ballarat, Bendigo and Rockhampton.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 3.50 mag to 13.56 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.2 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 253-105632 by 955 Alstede on 2021 Aug 5
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
140 54 35 -44 45 30 15 0 47.5 43 252 -62 140 44 58 -44 45 36 141 4 14 -44 45 22 140 20 10 -44 45 47 141 29 16 -44 44 59 0.93
141 1 25 -44 25 31 15 0 51.8 42 252 -62 140 51 49 -44 25 38 141 11 1 -44 25 23 140 27 7 -44 25 51 141 35 57 -44 24 56 0.93
141 8 20 -44 5 29 15 0 56.0 42 251 -62 140 58 47 -44 5 37 141 17 54 -44 5 20 140 34 10 -44 5 52 141 42 44 -44 4 51 0.93
141 15 20 -43 45 23 15 1 0.3 42 251 -63 141 5 49 -43 45 32 141 24 52 -43 45 13 140 41 18 -43 45 50 141 49 37 -43 44 42 0.93
141 22 26 -43 25 14 15 1 4.5 42 251 -63 141 12 57 -43 25 24 141 31 56 -43 25 3 140 48 32 -43 25 45 141 56 35 -43 24 30 0.93
141 29 38 -43 5 2 15 1 8.7 42 250 -63 141 20 11 -43 5 13 141 39 6 -43 4 50 140 55 51 -43 5 36 142 3 40 -43 4 14 0.93
141 36 56 -42 44 46 15 1 13.0 41 250 -64 141 27 31 -42 44 58 141 46 22 -42 44 33 141 3 16 -42 45 23 142 10 51 -42 43 54 0.93
141 44 19 -42 24 26 15 1 17.2 41 250 -64 141 34 56 -42 24 39 141 53 43 -42 24 12 141 10 46 -42 25 7 142 18 7 -42 23 31 0.93
141 51 49 -42 4 3 15 1 21.5 41 249 -64 141 42 27 -42 4 16 142 1 11 -42 3 48 141 18 22 -42 4 47 142 25 30 -42 3 3 0.93
141 59 24 -41 43 35 15 1 25.7 41 249 -65 141 50 5 -41 43 50 142 8 45 -41 43 19 141 26 3 -41 44 24 142 32 59 -41 42 32 0.93
142 7 5 -41 23 3 15 1 30.0 40 249 -65 141 57 48 -41 23 19 142 16 24 -41 22 46 141 33 51 -41 23 56 142 40 35 -41 21 57 0.93
142 14 53 -41 2 28 15 1 34.2 40 248 -65 142 5 37 -41 2 45 142 24 10 -41 2 9 141 41 45 -41 3 24 142 48 17 -41 1 17 0.94
142 22 47 -40 41 47 15 1 38.4 40 248 -65 142 13 33 -40 42 6 142 32 3 -40 41 28 141 49 44 -40 42 48 142 56 5 -40 40 32 0.94
142 30 48 -40 21 3 15 1 42.7 40 248 -66 142 21 35 -40 21 22 142 40 2 -40 20 42 141 57 50 -40 22 7 143 4 0 -40 19 44 0.94
142 38 54 -40 0 14 15 1 46.9 40 247 -66 142 29 43 -40 0 34 142 48 7 -39 59 52 142 6 2 -40 1 22 143 12 2 -39 58 50 0.94
142 47 8 -39 39 20 15 1 51.2 39 247 -66 142 37 58 -39 39 41 142 56 19 -39 38 57 142 14 21 -39 40 33 143 20 11 -39 37 52 0.94
142 55 28 -39 18 21 15 1 55.4 39 247 -67 142 46 19 -39 18 44 143 4 38 -39 17 56 142 22 46 -39 19 38 143 28 26 -39 16 48 0.94
143 3 56 -38 57 17 15 1 59.6 39 246 -67 142 54 48 -38 57 41 143 13 4 -38 56 51 142 31 17 -38 58 39 143 36 49 -38 55 40 0.94
143 12 30 -38 36 8 15 2 3.9 39 246 -67 143 3 23 -38 36 33 143 21 37 -38 35 41 142 39 56 -38 37 34 143 45 19 -38 34 26 0.94
143 21 11 -38 14 53 15 2 8.1 38 246 -68 143 12 6 -38 15 20 143 30 18 -38 14 25 142 48 41 -38 16 25 143 53 57 -38 13 7 0.94
143 30 0 -37 53 33 15 2 12.4 38 245 -68 143 20 55 -37 54 1 143 39 5 -37 53 4 142 57 33 -37 55 9 144 2 42 -37 51 42 0.94
143 38 56 -37 32 7 15 2 16.6 38 245 -68 143 29 53 -37 32 37 143 48 1 -37 31 36 143 6 33 -37 33 49 144 11 35 -37 30 11 0.94
143 48 0 -37 10 36 15 2 20.9 37 245 -68 143 38 57 -37 11 7 143 57 4 -37 10 3 143 15 40 -37 12 22 144 20 35 -37 8 34 0.94
143 57 12 -36 48 58 15 2 25.1 37 244 -69 143 48 10 -36 49 31 144 6 15 -36 48 24 143 24 55 -36 50 49 144 29 44 -36 46 51 0.94
144 6 31 -36 27 14 15 2 29.3 37 244 -69 143 57 30 -36 27 48 144 15 34 -36 26 38 143 34 17 -36 29 11 144 39 1 -36 25 1 0.94
144 15 59 -36 5 23 15 2 33.6 37 244 -69 144 6 59 -36 5 59 144 25 1 -36 4 46 143 43 48 -36 7 26 144 48 27 -36 3 5 0.94
144 25 36 -35 43 26 15 2 37.8 36 243 -70 144 16 36 -35 44 3 144 34 37 -35 42 47 143 53 26 -35 45 34 144 58 1 -35 41 2 0.94
144 35 21 -35 21 22 15 2 42.1 36 243 -70 144 26 21 -35 22 1 144 44 21 -35 20 42 144 3 13 -35 23 36 145 7 45 -35 18 52 0.94
144 45 14 -34 59 10 15 2 46.3 36 243 -70 144 36 16 -34 59 51 144 54 15 -34 58 28 144 13 8 -35 1 30 145 17 37 -34 56 34 0.95
144 55 17 -34 36 52 15 2 50.5 35 243 -70 144 46 19 -34 37 34 145 4 17 -34 36 8 144 23 13 -34 39 18 145 27 39 -34 34 9 0.95
145 5 30 -34 14 25 15 2 54.8 35 242 -71 144 56 32 -34 15 9 145 14 29 -34 13 40 144 33 26 -34 16 58 145 37 50 -34 11 36 0.95
145 15 52 -33 51 51 15 2 59.0 35 242 -71 145 6 54 -33 52 37 145 24 51 -33 51 3 144 43 49 -33 54 30 145 48 12 -33 48 55 0.95
145 26 24 -33 29 8 15 3 3.3 34 242 -71 145 17 26 -33 29 56 145 35 23 -33 28 19 144 54 21 -33 31 54 145 58 44 -33 26 5 0.95
145 37 6 -33 6 17 15 3 7.5 34 241 -71 145 28 8 -33 7 7 145 46 5 -33 5 26 145 5 3 -33 9 10 146 9 26 -33 3 7 0.95
145 47 58 -32 43 17 15 3 11.8 34 241 -72 145 39 0 -32 44 9 145 56 58 -32 42 23 145 15 55 -32 46 17 146 20 19 -32 39 59 0.95
145 59 2 -32 20 8 15 3 16.0 34 241 -72 145 50 4 -32 21 2 146 8 2 -32 19 12 145 26 58 -32 23 15 146 31 24 -32 16 42 0.95
146 10 17 -31 56 49 15 3 20.2 33 241 -72 146 1 18 -31 57 45 146 19 17 -31 55 51 145 38 12 -32 0 4 146 42 40 -31 53 16 0.95
146 21 43 -31 33 20 15 3 24.5 33 240 -72 146 12 44 -31 34 19 146 30 44 -31 32 20 145 49 37 -31 36 43 146 54 8 -31 29 39 0.95
146 33 22 -31 9 41 15 3 28.7 32 240 -72 146 24 22 -31 10 42 146 42 23 -31 8 39 146 1 13 -31 13 13 147 5 49 -31 5 51 0.95
146 45 12 -30 45 52 15 3 33.0 32 240 -73 146 36 12 -30 46 55 146 54 14 -30 44 47 146 13 2 -30 49 32 147 17 42 -30 41 53 0.95
146 57 16 -30 21 51 15 3 37.2 32 240 -73 146 48 15 -30 22 57 147 6 19 -30 20 44 146 25 3 -30 25 40 147 29 49 -30 17 43 0.95
147 9 33 -29 57 39 15 3 41.5 31 239 -73 147 0 31 -29 58 48 147 18 37 -29 56 29 146 37 17 -30 1 37 147 42 10 -29 53 22 0.95
147 22 5 -29 33 15 15 3 45.7 31 239 -73 147 13 1 -29 34 26 147 31 9 -29 32 3 146 49 44 -29 37 23 147 54 45 -29 28 47 0.96
147 34 50 -29 8 38 15 3 49.9 31 239 -73 147 25 46 -29 9 52 147 43 56 -29 7 23 147 2 26 -29 12 56 148 7 35 -29 4 0 0.96
147 47 51 -28 43 49 15 3 54.2 30 238 -74 147 38 45 -28 45 5 147 56 58 -28 42 30 147 15 22 -28 48 16 148 20 41 -28 39 0 0.96
148 1 7 -28 18 45 15 3 58.4 30 238 -74 147 52 0 -28 20 5 148 10 16 -28 17 23 147 28 33 -28 23 24 148 34 4 -28 13 45 0.96
148 14 40 -27 53 27 15 4 2.7 29 238 -74 148 5 31 -27 54 50 148 23 51 -27 52 2 147 42 0 -27 58 17 148 47 43 -27 48 15 0.96
148 28 30 -27 27 54 15 4 6.9 29 238 -74 148 19 19 -27 29 21 148 37 42 -27 26 26 147 55 43 -27 32 56 149 1 40 -27 22 30 0.96
148 42 38 -27 2 6 15 4 11.1 29 237 -74 148 33 25 -27 3 36 148 51 53 -27 0 34 148 9 43 -27 7 20 149 15 56 -26 56 28 0.96
148 57 4 -26 36 1 15 4 15.4 28 237 -74 148 47 49 -26 37 34 149 6 22 -26 34 25 148 24 2 -26 41 28 149 30 31 -26 30 10 0.96
149 11 51 -26 9 38 15 4 19.6 28 237 -74 149 2 33 -26 11 16 149 21 11 -26 7 59 148 38 39 -26 15 19 149 45 28 -26 3 33 0.96
149 26 58 -25 42 58 15 4 23.9 27 237 -74 149 17 37 -25 44 39 149 36 21 -25 41 14 148 53 37 -25 48 53 150 0 45 -25 36 37 0.96
149 42 27 -25 15 58 15 4 28.1 27 237 -74 149 33 3 -25 17 43 149 51 53 -25 14 10 149 8 55 -25 22 8 150 16 26 -25 9 21 0.96
149 58 19 -24 48 37 15 4 32.4 26 236 -74 149 48 52 -24 50 28 150 7 48 -24 46 45 149 24 35 -24 55 3 150 32 31 -24 41 44 0.96
150 14 35 -24 20 56 15 4 36.6 26 236 -74 150 5 5 -24 22 51 150 24 9 -24 18 58 149 40 39 -24 27 38 150 49 1 -24 13 44 0.97
150 31 18 -23 52 51 15 4 40.8 25 236 -74 150 21 43 -23 54 51 150 40 55 -23 50 48 149 57 7 -23 59 52 151 5 59 -23 45 21 0.97
150 48 28 -23 24 22 15 4 45.1 25 236 -74 150 38 48 -23 26 28 150 58 9 -23 22 14 150 14 1 -23 31 42 151 23 26 -23 16 32 0.97
151 6 7 -22 55 28 15 4 49.3 24 235 -74 150 56 22 -22 57 39 151 15 53 -22 53 14 150 31 24 -23 3 7 151 41 23 -22 47 16 0.97
151 24 17 -22 26 5 15 4 53.6 24 235 -74 151 14 27 -22 28 23 151 34 9 -22 23 45 150 49 15 -22 34 7 151 59 54 -22 17 31 0.97
151 43 1 -21 56 14 15 4 57.8 23 235 -74 151 33 5 -21 58 38 151 52 59 -21 53 47 151 7 38 -22 4 38 152 19 0 -21 47 14 0.97
152 2 20 -21 25 51 15 5 2.0 23 235 -73 151 52 18 -21 28 22 152 12 25 -21 23 17 151 26 36 -21 34 40 152 38 44 -21 16 24 0.97
152 22 18 -20 54 53 15 5 6.3 22 234 -73 152 12 9 -20 57 32 152 32 31 -20 52 11 151 46 9 -21 4 10 152 59 10 -20 44 58 0.97
152 42 59 -20 23 19 15 5 10.5 22 234 -73 152 32 42 -20 26 6 152 53 19 -20 20 29 152 6 22 -20 33 4 153 20 20 -20 12 53 0.97
153 4 24 -19 51 5 15 5 14.8 21 234 -73 152 53 58 -19 54 1 153 14 54 -19 48 6 152 27 17 -20 1 22 153 42 19 -19 40 4 0.98
153 26 39 -19 18 8 15 5 19.0 20 234 -72 153 16 4 -19 21 14 153 37 19 -19 14 58 152 48 58 -19 28 59 154 5 12 -19 6 29 0.98
153 49 49 -18 44 22 15 5 23.3 20 234 -72 153 39 3 -18 47 39 154 0 40 -18 41 1 153 11 30 -18 55 51 154 29 4 -18 32 2 0.98
154 13 59 -18 9 44 15 5 27.5 19 233 -72 154 3 0 -18 13 13 154 25 3 -18 6 11 153 34 58 -18 21 55 154 54 1 -17 56 38 0.98
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]