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Updated: 2021 MAY 29, 00:22 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Jul 18 UT, the 59.7 km diameter asteroid (485) Genua will occult a 11.0 mag star in the constellation Ophiuchus for observers along a path across New Zealand, grazing the east coast of the South Island at relatively low elevation.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 2.60 mag to 13.54 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 8.1 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 5058-01213-1 by 485 Genua on 2021 Jul 18
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
179 38 11 -41 16 44 13 45 18.3 18 280 -61 -179 19 2 -41 30 35 178 38 30 -41 2 41 -178 54 25 -41 35 46 178 16 41 -40 57 20 1.85
179 13 42 -41 26 40 13 45 21.8 19 280 -61 -179 44 16 -41 40 37 178 14 40 -41 12 31 -179 19 58 -41 45 51 177 53 5 -41 7 7 1.85
178 49 33 -41 36 34 13 45 25.3 19 280 -61 179 50 53 -41 50 38 177 51 9 -41 22 19 -179 45 7 -41 55 54 177 29 46 -41 16 54 1.85
178 25 45 -41 46 27 13 45 28.7 19 281 -61 179 26 23 -42 0 38 177 27 55 -41 32 7 179 50 7 -42 5 56 177 6 45 -41 26 39 1.85
178 2 14 -41 56 20 13 45 32.2 19 281 -61 179 2 15 -42 10 36 177 4 58 -41 41 54 179 25 43 -42 15 57 176 43 59 -41 36 24 1.85
177 39 2 -42 6 12 13 45 35.7 20 281 -62 178 38 27 -42 20 34 176 42 18 -41 51 40 179 1 39 -42 25 57 176 21 30 -41 46 8 1.85
177 16 6 -42 16 3 13 45 39.2 20 282 -62 178 14 57 -42 30 31 176 19 52 -42 1 26 178 37 56 -42 35 56 175 59 15 -41 55 52 1.85
176 53 27 -42 25 53 13 45 42.7 20 282 -62 177 51 46 -42 40 27 175 57 42 -42 11 11 178 14 31 -42 45 55 175 37 14 -42 5 35 1.85
176 31 4 -42 35 43 13 45 46.2 20 282 -62 177 28 51 -42 50 22 175 35 46 -42 20 55 177 51 23 -42 55 52 175 15 28 -42 15 18 1.85
176 8 55 -42 45 32 13 45 49.6 20 283 -62 177 6 13 -43 0 17 175 14 3 -42 30 40 177 28 33 -43 5 49 174 53 54 -42 25 1 1.85
175 47 1 -42 55 21 13 45 53.1 21 283 -62 176 43 51 -43 10 11 174 52 33 -42 40 24 177 6 0 -43 15 46 174 32 33 -42 34 43 1.85
175 25 20 -43 5 10 13 45 56.6 21 283 -62 176 21 44 -43 20 5 174 31 16 -42 50 7 176 43 41 -43 25 42 174 11 24 -42 44 25 1.85
175 3 53 -43 14 58 13 46 0.1 21 284 -62 175 59 51 -43 29 59 174 10 12 -42 59 51 176 21 38 -43 35 37 173 50 27 -42 54 7 1.85
174 42 38 -43 24 46 13 46 3.6 21 284 -62 175 38 12 -43 39 52 173 49 18 -43 9 34 175 59 49 -43 45 32 173 29 42 -43 3 48 1.85
174 21 35 -43 34 34 13 46 7.0 21 284 -62 175 16 46 -43 49 45 173 28 36 -43 19 17 175 38 14 -43 55 27 173 9 7 -43 13 29 1.85
174 0 44 -43 44 22 13 46 10.5 22 285 -62 174 55 33 -43 59 37 173 8 5 -43 29 0 175 16 52 -44 5 22 172 48 43 -43 23 11 1.85
173 40 5 -43 54 9 13 46 14.0 22 285 -62 174 34 33 -44 9 30 172 47 44 -43 38 43 174 55 43 -44 15 16 172 28 29 -43 32 52 1.85
173 19 36 -44 3 57 13 46 17.5 22 285 -62 174 13 44 -44 19 22 172 27 33 -43 48 26 174 34 46 -44 25 10 172 8 24 -43 42 33 1.85
172 59 18 -44 13 44 13 46 21.0 22 286 -62 173 53 7 -44 29 14 172 7 32 -43 58 9 174 14 1 -44 35 4 171 48 29 -43 52 15 1.85
172 39 9 -44 23 32 13 46 24.4 22 286 -62 173 32 40 -44 39 7 171 47 41 -44 7 52 173 53 27 -44 44 58 171 28 43 -44 1 56 1.86
172 19 11 -44 33 20 13 46 27.9 23 286 -62 173 12 24 -44 48 59 171 27 58 -44 17 36 173 33 4 -44 54 53 171 9 6 -44 11 38 1.86
171 59 22 -44 43 7 13 46 31.4 23 286 -62 172 52 18 -44 58 51 171 8 24 -44 27 19 173 12 52 -45 4 47 170 49 38 -44 21 20 1.86
171 39 42 -44 52 55 13 46 34.9 23 287 -62 172 32 23 -45 8 44 170 48 59 -44 37 2 172 52 50 -45 14 41 170 30 17 -44 31 1 1.86
171 20 11 -45 2 43 13 46 38.4 23 287 -62 172 12 36 -45 18 36 170 29 41 -44 46 46 172 32 57 -45 24 35 170 11 5 -44 40 44 1.86
171 0 48 -45 12 32 13 46 41.8 23 287 -62 171 52 59 -45 28 29 170 10 32 -44 56 30 172 13 14 -45 34 30 169 52 0 -44 50 26 1.86
170 41 34 -45 22 20 13 46 45.3 23 288 -62 171 33 31 -45 38 22 169 51 30 -45 6 14 171 53 40 -45 44 25 169 33 3 -45 0 9 1.86
170 22 28 -45 32 9 13 46 48.8 24 288 -62 171 14 11 -45 48 16 169 32 36 -45 15 59 171 34 15 -45 54 20 169 14 13 -45 9 52 1.86
170 3 29 -45 41 58 13 46 52.3 24 288 -62 170 55 0 -45 58 9 169 13 49 -45 25 44 171 14 59 -46 4 15 168 55 30 -45 19 35 1.86
169 44 38 -45 51 48 13 46 55.8 24 289 -62 170 35 57 -46 8 3 168 55 9 -45 35 29 170 55 50 -46 14 11 168 36 54 -45 29 18 1.86
169 25 54 -46 1 38 13 46 59.2 24 289 -62 170 17 1 -46 17 57 168 36 35 -45 45 15 170 36 50 -46 24 7 168 18 24 -45 39 3 1.86
169 7 17 -46 11 28 13 47 2.7 24 289 -62 169 58 13 -46 27 52 168 18 9 -45 55 1 170 17 58 -46 34 3 168 0 1 -45 48 47 1.86
168 48 47 -46 21 19 13 47 6.2 24 290 -62 169 39 32 -46 37 47 167 59 48 -46 4 47 169 59 13 -46 44 0 167 41 44 -45 58 32 1.86
168 30 23 -46 31 10 13 47 9.7 24 290 -62 169 20 59 -46 47 43 167 41 34 -46 14 34 169 40 35 -46 53 57 167 23 33 -46 8 18 1.86
168 12 6 -46 41 2 13 47 13.2 25 290 -62 169 2 32 -46 57 39 167 23 25 -46 24 22 169 22 4 -47 3 55 167 5 27 -46 18 4 1.86
167 53 55 -46 50 54 13 47 16.6 25 291 -62 168 44 12 -47 7 35 167 5 22 -46 34 10 169 3 41 -47 13 53 166 47 28 -46 27 50 1.86
167 35 50 -47 0 47 13 47 20.1 25 291 -62 168 25 58 -47 17 33 166 47 25 -46 43 58 168 45 23 -47 23 52 166 29 33 -46 37 37 1.86
167 17 50 -47 10 40 13 47 23.6 25 291 -62 168 7 51 -47 27 30 166 29 34 -46 53 48 168 27 13 -47 33 52 166 11 44 -46 47 25 1.86
166 59 57 -47 20 34 13 47 27.1 25 291 -62 167 49 49 -47 37 29 166 11 47 -47 3 38 168 9 8 -47 43 52 165 54 1 -46 57 13 1.86
166 42 9 -47 30 29 13 47 30.6 25 292 -62 167 31 54 -47 47 28 165 54 6 -47 13 28 167 51 10 -47 53 52 165 36 22 -47 7 2 1.86
166 24 26 -47 40 24 13 47 34.0 25 292 -62 167 14 4 -47 57 27 165 36 30 -47 23 19 167 33 17 -48 3 54 165 18 48 -47 16 52 1.87
166 6 48 -47 50 20 13 47 37.5 25 292 -62 166 56 19 -48 7 28 165 18 58 -47 33 11 167 15 30 -48 13 56 165 1 18 -47 26 42 1.87
165 49 16 -48 0 17 13 47 41.0 25 293 -61 166 38 41 -48 17 29 165 1 31 -47 43 4 166 57 49 -48 23 58 164 43 54 -47 36 33 1.87
165 31 48 -48 10 14 13 47 44.5 26 293 -61 166 21 7 -48 27 31 164 44 9 -47 52 57 166 40 13 -48 34 2 164 26 33 -47 46 25 1.87
165 14 25 -48 20 13 13 47 48.0 26 293 -61 166 3 38 -48 37 33 164 26 51 -48 2 51 166 22 42 -48 44 6 164 9 17 -47 56 17 1.87
164 57 6 -48 30 12 13 47 51.5 26 294 -61 165 46 15 -48 47 37 164 9 37 -48 12 46 166 5 16 -48 54 11 163 52 5 -48 6 10 1.87
164 39 52 -48 40 12 13 47 54.9 26 294 -61 165 28 56 -48 57 41 163 52 27 -48 22 41 165 47 55 -49 4 17 163 34 57 -48 16 4 1.87
164 22 42 -48 50 12 13 47 58.4 26 294 -61 165 11 41 -49 7 46 163 35 22 -48 32 38 165 30 39 -49 14 24 163 17 53 -48 25 59 1.87
164 5 36 -49 0 14 13 48 1.9 26 295 -61 164 54 31 -49 17 52 163 18 20 -48 42 35 165 13 27 -49 24 32 163 0 53 -48 35 55 1.87
163 48 35 -49 10 17 13 48 5.4 26 295 -61 164 37 26 -49 27 59 163 1 22 -48 52 33 164 56 20 -49 34 41 162 43 56 -48 45 52 1.87
163 31 37 -49 20 20 13 48 8.9 26 295 -61 164 20 25 -49 38 7 162 44 28 -49 2 33 164 39 18 -49 44 50 162 27 3 -48 55 49 1.87
163 14 43 -49 30 25 13 48 12.3 26 296 -61 164 3 27 -49 48 16 162 27 37 -49 12 33 164 22 19 -49 55 1 162 10 13 -49 5 48 1.87
162 57 53 -49 40 30 13 48 15.8 26 296 -60 163 46 34 -49 58 26 162 10 49 -49 22 34 164 5 25 -50 5 12 161 53 27 -49 15 47 1.87
162 41 6 -49 50 36 13 48 19.3 27 296 -60 163 29 45 -50 8 37 161 54 5 -49 32 36 163 48 35 -50 15 25 161 36 44 -49 25 48 1.87
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs
Prediction of 2021 May 29.0
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