|
|
Updated: 2021 MAY 29, 00:21 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Jul 17 UT, the 16.9641625765168 km diameter asteroid (433) Eros will occult a 11.4 mag star in the constellation Scorpius for observers along a very narrow path across Australia, across Tasmania from Hobart to Devonport then from western Melbourne across central Victoria to near Swan Hill, across south-western New South Wales, north-eastern South Australia and central Northern Territory to Darwin.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.23 mag to 12.21 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 2.7 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 286-107176 by 433 Eros on 2021 Jul 17
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
125 54 24 0 0 0 11 6 28.1 48 145 -20 125 59 43 125 49 4 126 2 30 125 46 18 0.14
126 23 45 - 1 0 0 11 6 14.2 49 144 -20 126 29 4 126 18 25 126 31 50 126 15 39 0.15
126 52 55 - 2 0 0 11 6 0.0 50 144 -21 126 58 14 126 47 36 127 1 0 126 44 50 0.15
127 21 55 - 3 0 0 11 5 45.7 51 144 -22 127 27 14 127 16 36 127 30 0 127 13 50 0.15
127 50 47 - 4 0 0 11 5 31.2 52 143 -23 127 56 6 127 45 27 127 58 52 127 42 41 0.15
128 19 30 - 5 0 0 11 5 16.5 53 143 -23 128 24 49 128 14 11 128 27 35 128 11 25 0.15
128 48 6 - 6 0 0 11 5 1.6 54 143 -24 128 53 26 128 42 47 128 56 12 128 40 1 0.15
129 16 37 - 7 0 0 11 4 46.5 55 142 -25 129 21 56 129 11 17 129 24 43 129 8 30 0.15
129 45 2 - 8 0 0 11 4 31.3 56 142 -25 129 50 22 129 39 41 129 53 9 129 36 55 0.15
130 13 22 - 9 0 0 11 4 15.9 57 141 -26 130 18 43 130 8 1 130 21 30 130 5 14 0.15
130 41 40 -10 0 0 11 4 0.3 58 140 -27 130 47 1 130 36 18 130 49 49 130 33 30 0.15
131 9 54 -11 0 0 11 3 44.6 59 140 -28 131 15 17 131 4 32 131 18 4 131 1 44 0.16
131 38 7 -12 0 0 11 3 28.7 60 139 -28 131 43 30 131 32 44 131 46 19 131 29 55 0.16
132 6 19 -13 0 0 11 3 12.6 61 138 -29 132 11 43 132 0 54 132 14 32 131 58 5 0.16
132 34 31 -14 0 0 11 2 56.5 62 138 -30 132 39 56 132 29 5 132 42 46 132 26 16 0.16
133 2 44 -15 0 0 11 2 40.1 63 137 -30 133 8 10 132 57 17 133 11 1 132 54 26 0.16
133 30 58 -16 0 0 11 2 23.7 64 136 -31 133 36 26 133 25 30 133 39 17 133 22 39 0.16
133 59 15 -17 0 0 11 2 7.1 65 135 -32 134 4 45 133 53 45 134 7 37 133 50 53 0.16
134 27 36 -18 0 0 11 1 50.4 66 134 -32 134 33 7 134 22 4 134 36 0 134 19 11 0.16
134 56 1 -19 0 0 11 1 33.6 67 132 -33 135 1 34 134 50 27 135 4 28 134 47 34 0.16
135 24 31 -20 0 0 11 1 16.7 68 131 -33 135 30 7 135 18 56 135 33 1 135 16 1 0.17
135 53 8 -21 0 0 11 0 59.7 69 130 -34 135 58 45 135 47 30 136 1 41 135 44 35 0.17
136 21 52 -22 0 0 11 0 42.5 70 128 -35 136 27 32 136 16 12 136 30 29 136 13 15 0.17
136 50 44 -23 0 0 11 0 25.3 71 126 -35 136 56 26 136 45 2 136 59 25 136 42 4 0.17
137 19 46 -24 0 0 11 0 8.0 72 124 -36 137 25 31 137 14 1 137 28 30 137 11 2 0.17
137 48 58 -25 0 0 10 59 50.6 73 122 -36 137 54 46 137 43 11 137 57 47 137 40 10 0.17
138 18 22 -26 0 0 10 59 33.1 74 120 -37 138 24 13 138 12 32 138 27 15 138 9 30 0.17
138 47 59 -27 0 0 10 59 15.6 74 117 -37 138 53 53 138 42 6 138 56 57 138 39 2 0.18
139 17 50 -28 0 0 10 58 57.9 75 114 -38 139 23 47 139 11 53 139 26 52 139 8 48 0.18
139 47 56 -29 0 0 10 58 40.3 76 111 -38 139 53 56 139 41 56 139 57 4 139 38 49 0.18
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
140 0 0 -29 23 53 10 58 33.2 76 110 -38 -29 12 0 -29 35 48 -29 5 49 -29 42 1 0.18
141 0 0 -31 21 20 10 57 58.4 77 102 -39 -31 9 26 -31 33 16 -31 3 15 -31 39 29 0.18
142 0 0 -33 16 20 10 57 24.1 78 93 -40 -33 4 26 -33 28 15 -32 58 16 -33 34 27 0.19
143 0 0 -35 8 39 10 56 50.5 79 83 -41 -34 56 47 -35 20 33 -34 50 37 -35 26 45 0.19
144 0 0 -36 58 7 10 56 17.7 79 73 -41 -36 46 17 -37 9 58 -36 40 8 -37 16 9 0.19
145 0 0 -38 44 33 10 55 45.7 79 62 -42 -38 32 46 -38 56 21 -38 26 38 -39 2 31 0.19
146 0 0 -40 27 49 10 55 14.7 79 52 -42 -40 16 6 -40 39 34 -40 10 0 -40 45 42 0.20
147 0 0 -42 7 49 10 54 44.6 78 43 -43 -41 56 9 -42 19 29 -41 50 6 -42 25 34 0.20
148 0 0 -43 44 26 10 54 15.6 77 35 -43 -43 32 52 -43 56 1 -43 26 51 -44 2 4 0.20
149 0 0 -45 17 38 10 53 47.7 76 29 -43 -45 6 10 -45 29 7 -45 0 12 -45 35 7 0.20
Uncertainty in time = +/- 1 secs
Prediction of 2021 May 29.0
Use these links for further information:
[Planetary Occultations]
[Using the Predictions]
[Observing Details]
[Timing Details]
[Reporting Details]
[Report Form]
[Asteroid Occultation Results]
[Top of Page][Return to Home Page]