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Updated: 2021 MAY 17, 22:49 UT
Event Rank : 99
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Jul 09 UT, the 73.5 km diameter asteroid (80) Sappho will occult a 12.0 mag star in the constellation Aquarius for observers along a path possibly just grazing the Queensland coast near Fraser Island.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.30 mag to 10.70 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 21.3 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 0546-01035-1 by 80 Sappho on 2021 Jul 9
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
149 19 41 -45 0 0 12 22 10.1 18 68 -59 150 26 3 148 10 50 150 52 25 147 42 1 -1.68
150 13 9 -44 0 0 12 22 33.4 19 67 -60 151 16 26 149 7 43 151 41 38 148 40 23 -1.69
151 0 4 -43 0 0 12 22 57.2 20 67 -61 152 0 43 149 57 31 152 24 54 149 31 27 -1.70
151 41 12 -42 0 0 12 23 21.4 21 66 -62 152 39 34 150 41 9 153 2 53 150 16 9 -1.70
152 17 12 -41 0 0 12 23 46.2 22 66 -63 153 13 34 151 19 18 153 36 7 150 55 15 -1.71
152 48 35 -40 0 0 12 24 11.4 22 66 -64 153 43 12 151 52 35 154 5 3 151 29 20 -1.71
153 15 47 -39 0 0 12 24 37.0 23 66 -65 154 8 49 152 21 26 154 30 5 151 58 55 -1.71
153 39 8 -38 0 0 12 25 3.1 24 66 -66 154 30 48 152 46 17 154 51 30 152 24 23 -1.71
153 58 58 -37 0 0 12 25 29.7 25 66 -67 154 49 23 153 7 25 155 9 36 152 46 6 -1.71
154 15 31 -36 0 0 12 25 56.6 25 66 -67 155 4 49 153 25 10 155 24 37 153 4 20 -1.71
154 29 2 -35 0 0 12 26 24.0 26 66 -68 155 17 20 153 39 44 155 36 44 153 19 22 -1.70
154 39 42 -34 0 0 12 26 51.7 27 67 -69 155 27 6 153 51 21 155 46 9 153 31 22 -1.70
154 47 41 -33 0 0 12 27 19.8 27 67 -70 155 34 16 154 0 11 155 53 0 153 40 34 -1.70
154 53 7 -32 0 0 12 27 48.3 28 67 -70 155 38 59 154 6 23 155 57 25 153 47 5 -1.69
154 56 8 -31 0 0 12 28 17.2 28 68 -71 155 41 21 154 10 6 155 59 32 153 51 5 -1.69
154 56 52 -30 0 0 12 28 46.5 29 68 -71 155 41 29 154 11 26 155 59 26 153 52 41 -1.68
154 55 23 -29 0 0 12 29 16.0 29 69 -71 155 39 29 154 10 29 155 57 13 153 51 58 1.68
154 51 46 -28 0 0 12 29 46.0 30 69 -72 155 35 24 154 7 22 155 52 58 153 49 3 1.67
154 46 7 -27 0 0 12 30 16.2 30 70 -72 155 29 20 154 2 8 155 46 44 153 43 59 1.67
154 38 27 -26 0 0 12 30 46.8 30 70 -72 155 21 20 153 54 51 155 38 35 153 36 52 1.66
154 28 52 -25 0 0 12 31 17.7 31 71 -72 155 11 26 153 45 34 155 28 34 153 27 43 1.66
154 17 23 -24 0 0 12 31 48.8 31 71 -72 154 59 41 153 34 21 155 16 43 153 16 36 1.65
154 4 2 -23 0 0 12 32 20.3 31 72 -72 154 46 7 153 21 13 155 3 4 153 3 34 1.64
153 48 50 -22 0 0 12 32 52.1 31 73 -72 154 30 46 153 6 12 154 47 39 152 48 37 1.64
153 31 50 -21 0 0 12 33 24.1 32 73 -72 154 13 39 152 49 19 154 30 29 152 31 47 1.63
153 13 2 -20 0 0 12 33 56.4 32 74 -71 153 54 46 152 30 35 154 11 34 152 13 5 1.62
152 52 26 -19 0 0 12 34 28.9 32 75 -71 153 34 8 152 10 1 153 50 55 151 52 31 1.62
152 30 2 -18 0 0 12 35 1.7 32 75 -71 153 11 45 151 47 35 153 28 32 151 30 5 1.61
152 5 49 -17 0 0 12 35 34.8 32 76 -70 152 47 36 151 23 18 153 4 24 151 5 46 1.60
151 39 47 -16 0 0 12 36 8.0 32 77 -69 152 21 40 150 57 8 152 38 31 150 39 33 1.60
151 11 53 -15 0 0 12 36 41.5 32 77 -69 151 53 55 150 29 4 152 10 50 150 11 24 1.59
150 42 6 -14 0 0 12 37 15.2 32 78 -68 151 24 21 149 59 3 151 41 21 149 41 17 1.58
150 10 23 -13 0 0 12 37 49.1 31 79 -67 150 52 54 149 27 3 151 10 0 149 9 10 1.58
149 36 41 -12 0 0 12 38 23.2 31 80 -66 150 19 31 148 53 0 150 36 44 148 34 58 1.57
149 0 55 -11 0 0 12 38 57.5 31 80 -66 149 44 9 148 16 50 150 1 31 147 58 36 1.57
148 23 2 -10 0 0 12 39 32.0 31 81 -65 149 6 43 147 38 27 149 24 16 147 20 1 1.56
147 42 56 - 9 0 0 12 40 6.6 30 82 -64 148 27 9 146 57 46 148 44 54 146 39 6 1.56
147 0 30 - 8 0 0 12 40 41.4 30 82 -63 147 45 20 146 14 40 148 3 19 145 55 42 1.55
146 15 36 - 7 0 0 12 41 16.3 29 83 -62 147 1 8 145 29 0 147 19 24 145 9 43 1.55
145 28 5 - 6 0 0 12 41 51.5 29 84 -61 146 14 27 144 40 37 146 33 1 144 20 56 1.54
144 37 47 - 5 0 0 12 42 26.7 28 84 -59 145 25 5 143 49 17 145 44 1 143 29 10 1.54
143 44 28 - 4 0 0 12 43 2.1 28 85 -58 144 32 50 142 54 47 144 52 11 142 34 9 1.54
142 47 52 - 3 0 0 12 43 37.6 27 86 -57 143 37 29 141 56 50 143 57 19 141 35 36 1.54
141 47 42 - 2 0 0 12 44 13.3 26 86 -56 142 38 45 140 55 3 142 59 8 140 33 8 1.54
140 43 32 - 1 0 0 12 44 49.1 25 87 -54 141 36 17 139 49 1 141 57 18 139 26 16 1.54
139 34 55 0 0 0 12 45 25.1 24 87 -53 140 29 39 138 38 11 140 51 25 138 14 26 1.54
Uncertainty in time = +/- 4 secs
Prediction of 2021 May 17.0
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