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Updated: 2021 MAY 17, 22:50 UT
Event Rank : 93
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Jul 09 UT, the 128.4 km diameter asteroid (344) Desiderata will occult a 12.2 mag star in the constellation Indus for observers along a fairly broad path across Western Australia from Derby to Bridgetown.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 0.21 mag to 10.45 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 21.1 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 8443-00477-1 by 344 Desiderata on 2021 Jul 9
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
125 30 36 0 0 0 16 21 36.1 33 159 -66 124 49 39 126 11 16 124 9 58 126 50 9 -0.61
125 27 2 - 1 0 0 16 21 47.5 34 159 -67 124 46 4 126 7 42 124 6 22 126 46 36 -0.61
125 22 48 - 2 0 0 16 21 59.1 35 159 -68 124 41 49 126 3 30 124 2 5 126 42 26 -0.61
125 17 56 - 3 0 0 16 22 11.1 36 159 -69 124 36 55 125 58 41 123 57 8 126 37 39 -0.61
125 12 25 - 4 0 0 16 22 23.3 37 158 -70 124 31 20 125 53 13 123 51 30 126 32 14 -0.61
125 6 14 - 5 0 0 16 22 35.8 37 158 -70 124 25 5 125 47 7 123 45 10 126 26 13 -0.61
124 59 24 - 6 0 0 16 22 48.6 38 158 -71 124 18 9 125 40 23 123 38 9 126 19 33 -0.61
124 51 54 - 7 0 0 16 23 1.7 39 157 -72 124 10 32 125 32 59 123 30 26 126 12 16 -0.61
124 43 44 - 8 0 0 16 23 15.0 40 157 -73 124 2 15 125 24 56 123 22 0 126 4 20 -0.61
124 34 53 - 9 0 0 16 23 28.5 41 157 -74 123 53 15 125 16 14 123 12 52 125 55 46 -0.60
124 25 21 -10 0 0 16 23 42.3 42 156 -75 123 43 33 125 6 52 123 3 0 125 46 33 -0.60
124 15 7 -11 0 0 16 23 56.4 43 156 -76 123 33 8 124 56 48 122 52 25 125 36 40 -0.60
124 4 11 -12 0 0 16 24 10.7 44 155 -77 123 21 59 124 46 4 122 41 4 125 26 6 -0.60
123 52 31 -13 0 0 16 24 25.3 44 155 -78 123 10 6 124 34 37 122 28 58 125 14 51 -0.60
123 40 7 -14 0 0 16 24 40.1 45 154 -78 122 57 28 124 22 26 122 16 5 125 2 54 -0.60
123 26 57 -15 0 0 16 24 55.1 46 154 -79 122 44 3 124 9 32 122 2 25 124 50 15 -0.60
123 13 2 -16 0 0 16 25 10.4 47 153 -80 122 29 50 123 55 53 121 47 56 124 36 51 -0.59
122 58 18 -17 0 0 16 25 25.9 48 153 -81 122 14 49 123 41 28 121 32 36 124 22 43 -0.59
122 42 47 -18 0 0 16 25 41.7 49 152 -81 121 58 57 123 26 15 121 16 25 124 7 48 -0.59
122 26 25 -19 0 0 16 25 57.6 49 151 -82 121 42 14 123 10 14 120 59 22 123 52 6 -0.59
122 9 11 -20 0 0 16 26 13.8 50 151 -83 121 24 38 122 53 23 120 41 23 123 35 36 -0.59
121 51 4 -21 0 0 16 26 30.3 51 150 -83 121 6 7 122 35 39 120 22 28 123 18 15 -0.59
121 32 2 -22 0 0 16 26 46.9 52 149 -83 120 46 39 122 17 2 120 2 35 123 0 1 -0.59
121 12 3 -23 0 0 16 27 3.8 52 148 -84 120 26 12 121 57 30 119 41 40 122 40 54 -0.58
120 51 4 -24 0 0 16 27 20.8 53 147 -84 120 4 44 121 37 0 119 19 43 122 20 52 -0.58
120 29 4 -25 0 0 16 27 38.1 54 146 -84 119 42 12 121 15 30 118 56 40 121 59 51 -0.58
120 5 59 -26 0 0 16 27 55.6 54 145 -83 119 18 34 120 52 58 118 32 29 121 37 49 -0.58
119 41 47 -27 0 0 16 28 13.3 55 144 -83 118 53 46 120 29 21 118 7 6 121 14 45 -0.58
119 16 25 -28 0 0 16 28 31.2 56 143 -82 118 27 46 120 4 36 117 40 29 120 50 34 -0.58
118 49 50 -29 0 0 16 28 49.4 56 142 -82 118 0 30 119 38 40 117 12 32 120 25 15 -0.58
118 21 57 -30 0 0 16 29 7.7 57 141 -81 117 31 54 119 11 29 116 43 14 119 58 44 -0.57
117 52 43 -31 0 0 16 29 26.2 57 140 -80 117 1 54 118 43 0 116 12 28 119 30 57 -0.57
117 22 3 -32 0 0 16 29 45.0 58 139 -80 116 30 25 118 13 8 115 40 10 119 1 49 -0.57
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
116 0 0 -34 27 37 16 30 32.0 59 135 -78 -32 55 20 -35 57 8 -31 23 30 -37 20 58 -0.57
115 0 0 -36 5 17 16 31 3.8 59 133 -76 -34 37 37 -37 30 33 -33 10 43 -38 50 38 -0.57
114 0 0 -37 35 31 16 31 33.7 60 131 -75 -36 11 53 -38 57 5 -34 49 12 -40 13 51 -0.56
113 0 0 -38 59 13 16 32 1.9 60 129 -73 -37 39 7 -40 17 31 -36 20 7 -41 31 20 -0.56
Uncertainty in time = +/- 11 secs
Prediction of 2021 May 17.0
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