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Updated: 2021 MAY 17, 22:46 UT
Event Rank : 22
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Jul 05 UT, the 48 km diameter asteroid (5120) Bitias will occult a 12.5 mag star in the constellation Lupus for observers along a narrow path of significant uncertainty across the North Island of New Zealand, from roughly Hicks Bay to Auckland, and across Australia from Grafton across north-eastern New South Wales, central Queensland and far north-western Northern Territory.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 5.17 mag to 17.64 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.6 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center.
This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA)mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, inparticular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 7830-02747-1 by 5120 Bitias on 2021 Jul 5
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
131 1 45 0 0 0 13 26 59.3 41 208 -54 131 19 31 130 44 4 133 8 0 128 59 17 -0.82
131 22 23 - 1 0 0 13 26 52.0 42 208 -55 131 40 15 131 4 37 133 29 17 129 19 21 -0.82
131 44 3 - 2 0 0 13 26 44.4 43 209 -56 132 2 0 131 26 11 133 51 41 129 40 22 -0.82
132 6 45 - 3 0 0 13 26 36.8 43 210 -57 132 24 49 131 48 46 134 15 12 130 2 21 -0.82
132 30 33 - 4 0 0 13 26 29.0 44 210 -58 132 48 44 132 12 27 134 39 54 130 25 21 -0.82
132 55 27 - 5 0 0 13 26 21.1 45 211 -59 133 13 46 132 37 13 135 5 48 130 49 22 -0.82
133 21 31 - 6 0 0 13 26 13.0 45 212 -60 133 39 59 133 3 8 135 32 58 131 14 27 -0.82
133 48 46 - 7 0 0 13 26 4.8 46 213 -61 134 7 24 133 30 14 136 1 26 131 40 39 -0.82
134 17 17 - 8 0 0 13 25 56.4 46 214 -61 134 36 5 133 58 34 136 31 16 132 7 59 -0.82
134 47 5 - 9 0 0 13 25 47.9 47 215 -62 135 6 5 134 28 10 137 2 31 132 36 30 -0.82
135 18 14 -10 0 0 13 25 39.3 48 216 -63 135 37 27 134 59 7 137 35 15 133 6 16 -0.81
Latitude Latitude Latitude Latitude
136 0 0 -11 16 28 13 25 28.0 48 217 -65 -10 41 32 -11 50 50 - 6 57 2 -15 6 38 -0.81
137 0 0 -12 59 13 13 25 12.6 49 219 -66 -12 26 9 -13 31 48 - 8 55 17 -16 38 25 -0.81
138 0 0 -14 34 35 13 24 57.8 50 221 -68 -14 3 6 -15 5 38 -10 43 36 -18 4 18 -0.81
139 0 0 -16 3 27 13 24 43.7 50 222 -69 -15 33 20 -16 33 11 -12 23 30 -19 24 50 -0.81
140 0 0 -17 26 32 13 24 30.1 50 224 -70 -16 57 38 -17 55 6 -13 56 7 -20 40 33 -0.81
141 0 0 -18 44 25 13 24 17.1 51 226 -72 -18 16 34 -19 11 58 -15 22 20 -21 51 51 -0.81
142 0 0 -19 57 35 13 24 4.7 51 227 -73 -19 30 42 -20 24 13 -16 42 53 -22 59 7 -0.81
143 0 0 -21 6 28 13 23 52.6 51 229 -74 -20 40 26 -21 32 16 -17 58 20 -24 2 39 -0.81
144 0 0 -22 11 24 13 23 41.1 51 230 -75 -21 46 8 -22 36 27 -19 9 9 -25 2 44 -0.81
145 0 0 -23 12 42 13 23 29.9 51 231 -76 -22 48 8 -23 37 5 -20 15 47 -25 59 36 -0.81
146 0 0 -24 10 38 13 23 19.1 51 232 -77 -23 46 42 -24 34 23 -21 18 32 -26 53 28 -0.81
147 0 0 -25 5 26 13 23 8.7 51 234 -77 -24 42 5 -25 28 37 -22 17 44 -27 44 32 -0.81
148 0 0 -25 57 18 13 22 58.6 51 235 -78 -25 34 29 -26 19 58 -23 13 37 -28 32 57 -0.81
149 0 0 -26 46 26 13 22 48.8 50 236 -79 -26 24 6 -27 8 37 -24 6 27 -29 18 54 -0.81
150 0 0 -27 32 59 13 22 39.4 50 237 -79 -27 11 7 -27 54 43 -24 56 24 -30 2 30 -0.81
151 0 0 -28 17 7 13 22 30.2 50 237 -80 -27 55 39 -28 38 26 -25 43 40 -30 43 53 -0.81
152 0 0 -28 58 57 13 22 21.3 49 238 -80 -28 37 53 -29 19 53 -26 28 24 -31 23 10 -0.81
153 0 0 -29 38 36 13 22 12.6 49 239 -80 -29 17 54 -29 59 11 -27 10 45 -32 0 27 -0.81
154 0 0 -30 16 12 13 22 4.2 49 239 -80 -29 55 50 -30 36 27 -27 50 51 -32 35 50 -0.81
155 0 0 -30 51 51 13 21 56.1 48 240 -80 -30 31 48 -31 11 47 -28 28 49 -33 9 24 -0.81
156 0 0 -31 25 37 13 21 48.1 48 241 -80 -31 5 51 -31 45 16 -29 4 45 -33 41 15 -0.81
157 0 0 -31 57 36 13 21 40.4 47 241 -80 -31 38 6 -32 16 58 -29 38 44 -34 11 26 -0.81
158 0 0 -32 27 52 13 21 32.9 47 241 -80 -32 8 38 -32 47 0 -30 10 53 -34 40 1 -0.81
159 0 0 -32 56 30 13 21 25.6 46 242 -80 -32 37 30 -33 15 24 -30 41 16 -35 7 4 -0.81
160 0 0 -33 23 33 13 21 18.4 46 242 -79 -33 4 47 -33 42 14 -31 9 57 -35 32 40 -0.81
161 0 0 -33 49 6 13 21 11.4 45 242 -79 -33 30 32 -34 7 35 -31 37 1 -35 56 50 -0.81
162 0 0 -34 13 11 13 21 4.6 45 242 -78 -33 54 49 -34 31 28 -32 2 31 -36 19 38 -0.81
163 0 0 -34 35 52 13 20 58.0 44 243 -78 -34 17 40 -34 53 58 -32 26 30 -36 41 7 -0.81
164 0 0 -34 57 10 13 20 51.5 44 243 -77 -34 39 9 -35 15 7 -32 49 2 -37 1 18 -0.81
165 0 0 -35 17 9 13 20 45.1 43 243 -77 -34 59 17 -35 34 57 -33 10 9 -37 20 15 -0.81
166 0 0 -35 35 52 13 20 38.9 43 243 -76 -35 18 8 -35 53 30 -33 29 55 -37 38 0 -0.81
167 0 0 -35 53 19 13 20 32.9 42 243 -76 -35 35 44 -36 10 50 -33 48 20 -37 54 34 -0.81
168 0 0 -36 9 34 13 20 26.9 41 243 -75 -35 52 6 -36 26 57 -34 5 29 -38 9 59 -0.81
169 0 0 -36 24 37 13 20 21.1 41 243 -75 -36 7 16 -36 41 54 -34 21 22 -38 24 17 -0.81
170 0 0 -36 38 31 13 20 15.4 40 243 -74 -36 21 16 -36 55 42 -34 36 1 -38 37 30 -0.81
171 0 0 -36 51 17 13 20 9.9 40 242 -73 -36 34 8 -37 8 23 -34 49 28 -38 49 38 -0.81
172 0 0 -37 2 57 13 20 4.4 39 242 -73 -36 45 53 -37 19 57 -35 1 45 -39 0 43 -0.81
173 0 0 -37 13 31 13 19 59.0 38 242 -72 -36 56 31 -37 30 27 -35 12 53 -39 10 47 -0.81
174 0 0 -37 23 1 13 19 53.8 38 242 -72 -37 6 5 -37 39 52 -35 22 52 -39 19 49 -0.81
175 0 0 -37 31 27 13 19 48.6 37 242 -71 -37 14 35 -37 48 15 -35 31 45 -39 27 51 -0.81
176 0 0 -37 38 51 13 19 43.6 37 242 -70 -37 22 2 -37 55 36 -35 39 32 -39 34 54 -0.81
177 0 0 -37 45 13 13 19 38.6 36 241 -70 -37 28 27 -38 1 56 -35 46 13 -39 40 58 -0.81
178 0 0 -37 50 34 13 19 33.8 35 241 -69 -37 33 50 -38 7 14 -35 51 49 -39 46 5 -0.81
179 0 0 -37 54 55 13 19 29.0 35 241 -68 -37 38 12 -38 11 33 -35 56 22 -39 50 13 -0.81
180 0 0 -37 58 14 13 19 24.3 34 240 -68 -37 41 33 -38 14 52 -35 59 51 -39 53 25 -0.81
Uncertainty in time = +/- 12 secs
Prediction of 2021 May 17.0
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