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Updated: 2021 May 17, 22:21 UT
Event Rank : 28
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Jun 07 UT, the 16.7 km diameter asteroid (391) Ingeborg will occult a 9.8 mag star in the constellation Sagitta for observers along a large uncertainty path across extreme south-western Victoria, eastern South Australia and western Queensland, passing near Mount Gambier, Birdsville and Mount Isa.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 4.18 mag to 13.96 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most a brief 1.4 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of TYC 1617-01590-1 by 391 Ingeborg on 2021 Jun 7
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limits Error Limits Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Limit 1 Limit 2 Limit 3 Limit 4 Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Longitude Longitude Longitude
142 7 4 -45 0 0 18 17 25.9 28 346 -39 142 13 43 142 0 25 142 45 18 141 28 57 -0.18
141 55 5 -44 0 0 18 17 30.2 29 346 -39 142 1 37 141 48 33 142 32 38 141 17 38 -0.18
141 43 43 -43 0 0 18 17 34.6 30 347 -40 141 50 9 141 37 18 142 20 38 141 6 55 -0.18
141 32 57 -42 0 0 18 17 39.1 31 347 -40 141 39 16 141 26 38 142 9 15 140 56 44 -0.18
141 22 44 -41 0 0 18 17 43.7 32 347 -40 141 28 57 141 16 31 141 58 27 140 47 6 -0.18
141 13 2 -40 0 0 18 17 48.5 33 347 -40 141 19 9 141 6 55 141 48 12 140 37 56 -0.18
141 3 49 -39 0 0 18 17 53.4 34 347 -40 141 9 51 140 57 47 141 38 28 140 29 14 -0.18
140 55 4 -38 0 0 18 17 58.4 35 347 -40 141 1 0 140 49 7 141 29 13 140 20 59 -0.18
140 46 45 -37 0 0 18 18 3.6 36 347 -40 140 52 37 140 40 53 141 20 26 140 13 8 -0.18
140 38 51 -36 0 0 18 18 8.9 37 347 -41 140 44 38 140 33 4 141 12 5 140 5 40 -0.18
140 31 21 -35 0 0 18 18 14.3 38 346 -41 140 37 3 140 25 38 141 4 10 139 58 35 -0.18
140 24 13 -34 0 0 18 18 19.8 39 346 -41 140 29 51 140 18 34 140 56 38 139 51 51 -0.18
140 17 26 -33 0 0 18 18 25.4 39 346 -41 140 23 1 140 11 52 140 49 28 139 45 28 -0.18
140 11 0 -32 0 0 18 18 31.2 40 346 -41 140 16 31 140 5 30 140 42 40 139 39 23 -0.18
140 4 54 -31 0 0 18 18 37.1 41 346 -41 140 10 21 139 59 27 140 36 13 139 33 37 -0.18
139 59 6 -30 0 0 18 18 43.0 42 346 -41 140 4 30 139 53 42 140 30 6 139 28 9 -0.18
139 53 36 -29 0 0 18 18 49.1 43 346 -41 139 58 56 139 48 15 140 24 17 139 22 58 -0.18
139 48 23 -28 0 0 18 18 55.4 44 346 -41 139 53 41 139 43 6 140 18 47 139 18 3 -0.18
139 43 27 -27 0 0 18 19 1.7 45 345 -41 139 48 42 139 38 13 140 13 34 139 13 23 -0.18
139 38 47 -26 0 0 18 19 8.1 46 345 -40 139 43 59 139 33 35 140 8 38 139 8 59 -0.18
139 34 22 -25 0 0 18 19 14.6 47 345 -40 139 39 31 139 29 13 140 3 58 139 4 49 -0.18
139 30 13 -24 0 0 18 19 21.3 48 345 -40 139 35 19 139 25 6 139 59 34 139 0 54 -0.18
139 26 17 -23 0 0 18 19 28.0 49 345 -40 139 31 22 139 21 13 139 55 25 138 57 12 -0.18
139 22 36 -22 0 0 18 19 34.8 50 344 -40 139 27 38 139 17 34 139 51 32 138 53 44 -0.18
139 19 9 -21 0 0 18 19 41.7 51 344 -40 139 24 9 139 14 9 139 47 52 138 50 28 -0.18
139 15 55 -20 0 0 18 19 48.8 52 344 -39 139 20 53 139 10 57 139 44 27 138 47 26 -0.18
139 12 54 -19 0 0 18 19 55.9 53 343 -39 139 17 50 139 7 58 139 41 15 138 44 35 -0.18
139 10 5 -18 0 0 18 20 3.1 54 343 -39 139 15 0 139 5 11 139 38 17 138 41 57 -0.18
139 7 30 -17 0 0 18 20 10.4 55 343 -39 139 12 22 139 2 37 139 35 32 138 39 30 -0.18
139 5 6 -16 0 0 18 20 17.7 56 342 -38 139 9 57 139 0 15 139 32 59 138 37 15 -0.18
139 2 55 -15 0 0 18 20 25.2 57 342 -38 139 7 45 138 58 5 139 30 40 138 35 12 -0.18
139 0 55 -14 0 0 18 20 32.7 58 341 -38 139 5 44 138 56 7 139 28 33 138 33 20 -0.18
138 59 7 -13 0 0 18 20 40.3 59 341 -38 139 3 55 138 54 20 139 26 38 138 31 39 -0.18
138 57 31 -12 0 0 18 20 48.0 60 340 -37 139 2 17 138 52 45 139 24 56 138 30 9 -0.18
138 56 7 -11 0 0 18 20 55.8 61 340 -37 139 0 52 138 51 21 139 23 25 138 28 50 -0.18
138 54 54 -10 0 0 18 21 3.6 62 339 -37 138 59 38 138 50 9 139 22 7 138 27 42 -0.18
Use these links for further information:
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