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Updated: 2021 May 17, 22:17 UT
Event Rank : 88
(The event Rank is a measure of the likelihood of observing an event, and is equal to the probability of at least one successful observation by a team of two observers spaced 1/8 path width just inside opposite sides of the predicted path. An event rank of 100 indicates that the prediction is expected to be very accurate).
THE UPDATED PATH
Note: The duration given in the line below is the interval during which the occultation shadow sweeps across the Earth - please see the minute markers on the map to determine the approximate time for your location.
On 2021 Jun 03 UT, the 41 km diameter asteroid (695) Bella will occult a 12.4 mag star in the constellation Hydra for observers along a slightly uncertain path across New Zealand, passing over Christchurch and Nelson.
In the case of an occultation, the combined light of the asteroid and the star will drop by 1.23 mag to 13.24 mag (the magnitude of the asteroid) for at most 3.8 seconds.
This update is based on, astrometry for the asteroid kindly provided by the IAU Minor Planet Center. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (http://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, http://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium). Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement.
Additional details of this and other events are available at Steve Preston's website at http://www.asteroidoccultation.com/
EVENT DETAILS SUMMARY :Important Note regarding Accuracy:
The uncertainty interval in path widths given above (and shown as a 1-sigma uncertainty ellipse on the plot) refers to RMS deviation and is applied as a +/- range. In other words, a path uncertainty of 1.0 path widths means that the actual center of the asteroid's shadow path should fall within plus or minus 1 path width of the plotted path center. However path errors larger than 1 sigma have been observed so observers should be alert for primary occultations within plus or minus 3 sigma of the updated path.
Further, almost all asteroidal satellites discovered so far have been found within 10 diameters of the asteroid (since this distance is deep enough within the gravitational well to be stable over long timescales). Therefore, if monitoring for secondary events, observing out to about 10 path-widths either side of the predicted track remains worthwhile.
We therefore recommend that you monitor for events if your observing location is up to +/- 10 path-widths from the predicted track. If not monitoring for occultations by secondary bodies you should observe from locations within 3 sigma of the nominal path.
In terms of time, the predictions are now usually accurate to about +/- 0.3 minute so you should be most attentive during the predicted minute of the event. However if intending to catch a potential satellite occultation you should start observing at least 10 times the predicted central duration before the predicted closest approach time for your location, and continue for a similar period afterwards.
Occultation of UCAC4 305-076560 by 695 Bella on 2021 Jun 3
Centre Star Star Sun Path Limit1 Path Limit2 Error Limit1 Error Limit2 Alt
E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt Crn
o ' " o ' " h m s o o o o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' " o ' "
Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude Longitude Latitude
173 25 0 -43 56 15 6 35 52.1 47 88 -17 173 3 59 -43 57 45 173 45 54 -43 54 41 172 40 20 -43 59 22 174 9 11 -43 52 51 0.93
173 19 57 -43 37 37 6 35 55.3 47 89 -17 172 59 3 -43 39 6 173 40 45 -43 36 3 172 35 30 -43 40 42 174 3 56 -43 34 14 0.93
173 14 49 -43 18 58 6 35 58.5 47 89 -17 172 54 0 -43 20 27 173 35 31 -43 17 26 172 30 34 -43 22 2 173 58 35 -43 15 38 0.93
173 9 35 -43 0 20 6 36 1.7 46 89 -17 172 48 53 -43 1 48 173 30 12 -42 58 48 172 25 33 -43 3 22 173 53 10 -42 57 1 0.93
173 4 16 -42 41 41 6 36 5.0 46 90 -17 172 43 39 -42 43 8 173 24 47 -42 40 10 172 20 26 -42 44 42 173 47 39 -42 38 24 0.93
172 58 52 -42 23 2 6 36 8.2 46 90 -17 172 38 20 -42 24 29 173 19 18 -42 21 32 172 15 13 -42 26 1 173 42 3 -42 19 47 0.93
172 53 23 -42 4 23 6 36 11.4 46 91 -16 172 32 56 -42 5 49 173 13 43 -42 2 54 172 9 55 -42 7 20 173 36 22 -42 1 10 0.93
172 47 48 -41 45 44 6 36 14.6 46 91 -16 172 27 27 -41 47 8 173 8 3 -41 44 15 172 4 32 -41 48 39 173 30 37 -41 42 32 0.93
172 42 8 -41 27 4 6 36 17.8 46 91 -16 172 21 52 -41 28 28 173 2 18 -41 25 36 171 59 2 -41 29 58 173 24 46 -41 23 54 0.93
172 36 22 -41 8 24 6 36 21.0 46 92 -16 172 16 11 -41 9 47 172 56 27 -41 6 57 171 53 28 -41 11 16 173 18 50 -41 5 16 0.93
172 30 32 -40 49 43 6 36 24.2 46 92 -16 172 10 26 -40 51 5 172 50 32 -40 48 17 171 47 48 -40 52 33 173 12 49 -40 46 37 0.93
172 24 36 -40 31 2 6 36 27.4 46 92 -16 172 4 35 -40 32 23 172 44 32 -40 29 37 171 42 2 -40 33 50 173 6 44 -40 27 58 0.93
172 18 35 -40 12 21 6 36 30.6 46 93 -16 171 58 39 -40 13 41 172 38 26 -40 10 57 171 36 11 -40 15 7 173 0 33 -40 9 18 0.93
172 12 30 -39 53 38 6 36 33.8 46 93 -15 171 52 37 -39 54 58 172 32 16 -39 52 15 171 30 15 -39 56 22 172 54 18 -39 50 38 0.93
172 6 18 -39 34 56 6 36 37.0 46 94 -15 171 46 31 -39 36 14 172 26 0 -39 33 34 171 24 13 -39 37 38 172 47 57 -39 31 57 0.93
172 0 2 -39 16 12 6 36 40.2 46 94 -15 171 40 19 -39 17 30 172 19 40 -39 14 51 171 18 6 -39 18 52 172 41 32 -39 13 16 0.93
171 53 41 -38 57 28 6 36 43.4 46 94 -15 171 34 2 -38 58 44 172 13 14 -38 56 8 171 11 54 -39 0 6 172 35 2 -38 54 34 0.93
171 47 14 -38 38 43 6 36 46.6 45 95 -15 171 27 39 -38 39 58 172 6 44 -38 37 24 171 5 36 -38 41 19 172 28 26 -38 35 51 0.93
171 40 43 -38 19 57 6 36 49.8 45 95 -15 171 21 11 -38 21 12 172 0 8 -38 18 39 170 59 13 -38 22 31 172 21 46 -38 17 7 0.93
171 34 6 -38 1 10 6 36 53.0 45 95 -14 171 14 39 -38 2 24 171 53 27 -37 59 53 170 52 44 -38 3 42 172 15 1 -37 58 23 0.93
171 27 24 -37 42 23 6 36 56.2 45 96 -14 171 8 0 -37 43 35 171 46 42 -37 41 7 170 46 10 -37 44 52 172 8 11 -37 39 37 0.93
171 20 37 -37 23 34 6 36 59.5 45 96 -14 171 1 17 -37 24 45 171 39 51 -37 22 19 170 39 31 -37 26 1 172 1 17 -37 20 51 0.93
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